As the World Cup campaign for our beloved Socceroos comes to an end, we can speculate the reasons why it ended early till the cows come home…poor line-ups and team selection by Pim in the opening game, dodgy red cards X 2, missed chances that my dead grandmother could have converted, etc, etc.

That being said, the focus switches back to footy and being in the middle of the split round, we have ample time to discuss what’s happening in the league, specifically in relation to injury news and team selections.

Now obviously there has been some news and incidents over the last few weeks that have a huge impact on fantasy coaches including Missy Higgins rolling his ankle on a depleted Etihad Stadium, Waite being suspended for third time this season, Aka Daka being club suspended for comments regarding the sexual orientation of footballers, Diddles out injured with a ‘hip’ (can be a very scary injury description for coaches), Voss finally admitting Brown Dog will be out for a month and a recent update on his injury speculating he ‘could’ be out for longer, and the Kreuze Missile doing an ACL and electing for traditional surgery meaning he is out for 12 months. The other BIG news is that Roo could be back in the Saints forward line sooner than expected.

So let’s start with the injury news (SC relevant) and in the mix for a return from injury for this week’s games are Davis (Adel), Luke Ball & Alan Didak, Matthew Scarlett, Cameron Mooney & Joel Corey (both unlikely), James McDonald and big arms Bradshaw.

Looking to Round 14 and we have McLean, Hille, Palmer, Broughton, and Gray due to return, while Higgins is a very good chance to come up against the Hawks.

Now let’s get on to the 2 issues affecting tens (dare I say hundreds) of thousands of fantasy coaches around the country and they are “What to do about Kreuzer”…and Brown.

More over the break including the teams for week 2

I’ll start with Brown Dog…to trade, or not to trade: that is the question: Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to bench him, or suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous lies about his injury.

At this stage, it would seem that Brown will not be back in action until at least Round 16 (in Tassie against the Hawks of all teams), and maybe even Round 17 at Skilled against a Geelong side who are looking every bit the part right now. Brisbane’s run from there goes Melb (Ga), WCE (Su), Adel (Ga), Ess (Es), Syd (Ga) and you could confidently say that while that is not the hardest run home, the Lions are no chance of playing finals footy this year. So will Brown get a run for the rest of year? And if he does, will he return to some sort of 100+ form?

He is currently priced (all prices here on in are SC based) at $390K and has dropped $135K off his starting price over the year, but with a BE of 67 on his return and the potential to gain back approx $40K of his losses after 3 games back if he hits his average of 97, there is hope for those willing to take a punt, or are low on trades.

If you are desperate to trade him now, possible trade in’s if you have a bit of coin in the bank include Chappy at $600K (but let’s face it, if you have the cash you would have done this already), J.Riewoldt at $532K, Pav at $529K and Pods at $493K (most already have them), Buddy at $509K who for mine, represents the best value (and there is no bias there), Diddles at $492K and Daisy at $489 who are also great value.

IMO – Buddy, Diddles and Daisy in that order for mine.

For straight swaps or limited cash, possible trade in’s include Bazza at $440K (but most have him or have had him), Stevie J at $436 is great value and averaging 90, Goodes at $435 is also great value and averaging 87, Junior Rioli at $424K who looks to be in form and over his injuries, Boomer at $418K and Gia $413K are tremendous value and both averaging 91, ROK at $385K is unbelievable value and nets you $5K back, and Rocklobster at $364K but most have him.

Take your pick from any of these but top 3 IMO are ROK, Goodes, Rioli.

Those I would steer clear of and why are: Waite – suspension and injury prone, Petrie, Gray, Bradshaw – all injury prone and coming back from one, Douglas – inconsistent and playing for Adelaide, Staker – don’t know why, but I just get a feeling he is crap, Byrnes, Roughead, Higgins, Brennan, Tippett, Neon Leon – all inconsistent.

If you are looking down the track, the obvious option is N.Riewoldt who WILL drop in excess of $65K to a very tasty $530K after 2 games back, and he could be back as early as next week although it is highly unlikely and a more realistic return date is Round 15/16 which “should” coincide with Browns return (Brown to cash up, Roo to cash down).

On to the Kreuze missile who is due to drop $31,600, down from $425,100 to $393,500. Factors to consider are cost, average, predicted salary movement, and the run home (as most want to set and forget).

Sandi at $563K is the obvious replacement if you don’t have him.
Ryder at $490K and averaging 89 is too expensive for my liking and is set to drop $40K over the coming weeks (tough run home).
Cox at $476K and averaging 89 is due to drop $27K over the coming weeks and is a HUGE risk of being wrapped in cotton wool towards to the end of the season (tough run home).
Mumford at $444K and averaging 85 is having a great season, but Seaby is due back in 4-6 weeks and this could have a negative impact on your team come finals time (tough run home).
Hudson at $441 averaging 81 is Number 1 at the Dogs but I am just not sold on him, could be a great POD (average run home).
Hille at $419K averaging 73 (with his 9 against Syd) is due back next week and is set to drop $80K after 2 games, great replacement option IMO but wait 2 weeks and pray your R3/4 get picked (tough run home).
Jamar at $380K averaging 83 is also a great replacement IMO and will rocket up $30K unless he has a stinker against Adelaide (easy run home).
Clark at $372K averaging 68 has burnt many coaches this year as he struggles to capture his form from 2009, could be a great POD but is due to drop $25K over the next few weeks (average run home).
HMAC at $367K averaging 76 offers good value, but seems to be struggling in a North outfit that has been hot and cold this year (tough run home).
NicNat at $347K averaging 75 is due to drop $14K and if Cox does get cotton balled, he will be the Number 1 ruckman at WCE, but his scores lately are inconsistent and is very much a gamble (tough run home).
And finally Jolly at $344K averaging 63 is dirt cheap for an ex-premium ruckman (while Collingwood’s last 7 are at the MCG, I think the pies have a tough run home – Carl, Gee, Ess, Adel, Haw).

IMO – Best value, longevity and points potential are Jamar, Hille and HMAC, with Clark and Jolly (they have to come good…don’t they) as the smokies. Mumford is the only other one I would consider.

I would steer clear of anyone under $341K as they just don’t have the scoring potential. Also Bradley (over-rated) and Maric (plays for Adel).

So what are all of you thinking?

edit: Gus Graham at Richmond is also looking the goods having taken the reigns from Simmonds a few rounds back. At $406K with an average of 96 after 5 games, is 100% worth consideration…thanks Terry. Richmond’s run home is moderately tough but that said, it is Richmond.

Lastly, I should mention that by no means am I vindicating ANY trades prior to an hour before lockout next week (which might be a partial lockout considering Carlton are playing Brisbane on Thursday night at Etihad Stadium and will hurt Kreuzer owners).

edit: teams for Round 13 – Week 2

ST KILDA v GEELONG CATS
St Kilda
B: Steven Baker, Jason Blake, Sam Gilbert
HB: Jarryn Geary, Sam Fisher, James Gwilt
C: Brendon Goddard, Nick Dal Santo, Farren Ray
HF: Clinton Jones, Justin Koschitzke, Adam Schneider
F: Brett Peake, Ben McEvoy, Stephen Milne
Foll: Michael Gardiner, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna
I/C: Robert Eddy, Jack Steven, Andrew McQualter, Rhys Stanley
Emg: Sean Dempster, Zac Dawson, Adam Pattison

In: Steven
Out: Raphael Clarke (hamstring)

Geelong Cats
B: Darren Milburn, Matthew Scarlett, Josh Hunt
HB: Andrew Mackie, Harry Taylor, Corey Enright
C: James Kelly, Cameron Ling, Jimmy Bartel
HF: Mathew Stokes, James Podsiadly, Shannon Byrnes
F: Travis Varcoe, Cameron Mooney, Steve Johnson
Foll: Mark Blake, Gary Ablett, Joel Selwood
I/C: David Wojcinski, Taylor Hunt, Trent West, Tom Lonergan
Emg: Mitchell Duncan, Ryan Gamble, Simon Hogan

In: Mooney, Scarlett
Out: Paul Chapman (hamstring), Simon Hogan

SYDNEY SWANS v COLLINGWOOD
Sydney Swans
B: Rhyce Shaw, Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Nick Smith
HB: Martin Mattner, Heath Grundy, Tadhg Kennelly
C: Nick Malceski, Brett Kirk, Kieren Jack
HF: Ryan O’Keefe, Adam Goodes, Josh Kennedy
F: Daniel Hannebery, Daniel Bradshaw, Jesse White
Foll: Shane Mumford, Jude Bolton, Jarrad McVeigh
I/C: Paul Bevan, Craig Bird, Ben McGlynn, Mike Pyke
Emg: Gary Rohan, Patrick Veszpremi, Lewis Jetta

In: Shaw, Bradshaw
Out: Patrick Veszpremi, Gary Rohan

Collingwood
B: Heath Shaw, Simon Prestigiacomo, Leigh Brown
HB: Harry O’Brien, Tyson Goldsack, Alan Toovey
C: Sharrod Wellingham, Dane Swan, Steele Sidebottom
HF: Luke Ball, Travis Cloke, Brad Dick
F: Dayne Beams, Chris Dawes, Leon Davis
Foll: Darren Jolly, Scott Pendlebury, Dale Thomas
I/C: Alan Didak, Ben Johnson, Tarkyn Lockyer, Ben Reid
Emg: Josh Fraser, Brent Macaffer, Jaxson Barham

In: Johnson, Didak, Ball, Goldsack, Dawes
Out: Josh Fraser, Paul Medhurst, Nick Maxwell (calf), Brent Macaffer, Jaxson Barham

ADELAIDE v MELBOURNE
Adelaide
B: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Scott Stevens
HB: Michael Doughty, Phil Davis, Matthew Jaensch
C: Brad Symes, Simon Goodwin, David Mackay
HF: Scott Thompson, Kurt Tippett, Nathan van Berlo
F: Richard Douglas, Taylor Walker, Ricky Henderson
Foll: Ivan Maric, Patrick Dangerfield, Brent Reilly
I/C (from): Jonathon Griffin, Bernie Vince, James Sellar, Rory Sloane, Jared Petrenko, Tony Armstrong, Jason Porplyzia

In: Sellar, Vince, Jaensch, Phil Davis
Out: Nathan Bock (groin)

Melbourne
B: Clint Bartram, Matthew Warnock, James Frawley
HB: Colin Garland, Jared Rivers, Jack Grimes
C: Brad Green, Jack Trengove, Cameron Bruce
HF: Cale Morton, Matthew Bate, Tom Scully
F: Neville Jetta, Brad Miller, Aaron Davey
Foll: Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Nathan Jones
I/C (from): Joel Macdonald, Jordie McKenzie, Jack Watts, Lynden Dunn, Jamie Bennell, Kyle Cheney, Jake Spencer

In: Macdonald, Cheney, Spencer, Bennell
Out: Jordan Gysberts

This entry was posted on Thursday, June 24th, 2010 at 12:31 pm and is filed under Injuries, Supercoach, TooSerious. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.