Welcome to TS Best Buys once again.  This week all the talk is about Barlow…which makes us all aware of how fragile the number of trades we do have could end up in the next few matches.  There will be a bit of a discussion on the best people you can bring in to replace him.  Though not cut and dried, I think it’s down to 6.

Advice for the week:  Quite a few people have run the marathon and hit the wall with 1-3 trades left at this stage, and find themselves really heaving near the end.  Others have been way back but are craftily getting into positions 5-8 in leagues and are ready for an assault on the flag.  All I can say is watch out those in leagues who are confident with 10-1 records.  Your great run could be about to come crashing down if you haven’t planned ahead.

FRESH MEAT
This week was actually a good one for fresh meat, as Collingwood unearthed Jarryd Blair a very short but highly regarded rookie.  Strijk from the Eagles put another game under the belt and played a very good match, and Henderson/Watts are still within range (i.e. under 200k) for those who want good forward options come finals time.  Even spud of all spuds Tommy Bellchambers got a run, though likely not too many more before delisting at the end of the year (him or Laycock or both…?)
I’d think you might have only one more downgrade in you, maybe two in your teams, so here’s the best of the <200k players for each position:
DEF: Strijk.  This week is the time.  I’d honestly steer clear of the rest.
MID: Banner over Blair who has security issues.
FWD: Henderson (MPP) or Watts if you have the coin give good peace of mind.  Otherwise O’Brien.
RUC: None.  Maybe at a pinch you could go Roughead and hope for an injury.

CATCH THE TRAIN
Eddie Betts, Kurt Tippett and Darren Jolly.  They have all had some average runs, but are now striking form.  If you’ve held them you have done well.  If not you can rely on these guys running into even better consistent scores to come.  I’d even say the same about Heath Shaw who is showing signs of life.  426k for 95 ppg is almost always a good deal.
If you don’t have Gary Ablett, now would be the time to jump on board.  He still has a few big games in him.  Montagna is the one to get from the top end who is on the rise.  Miss him now and it’ll cost ya.

ON THE NOSE
Adam Cooney is about to hit his down cycle which could leave him as the alternate pick for Sam Mitchell in a few weeks, when Mitchell returns from injury.  I’ve been disappointed in Cooney this year, just hasn’t stepped up to be the real matchwinner we all think he can be.
Jack Riewoldt is a gun footballer of the future, but not worth 600k.  Those who buy now are stupid, as he will be back down to more reasonable levels once the 200 is cleared from the system.
For injury reasons JZ and Barlow are gone for the year.  JZ it’s been a year to forget from a SC perspective but as most would have just cleared him out for Pods, he’s probably the pick of the year for many…urgh.
I’d have to say Matthew Pavlich is on the nose, but with Barlow out, look for the skipper to take midfield charge for the next few games and show some real leadership.  A must buy if you don’t have him already at the current price.

BARLOW…WHAT DO I DO?
1) First, thank God that you can trade him for more than 400k more than you bought him for, and that he made your side’s score 80 ppg better than it would otherwise have been early in the year.  Frankly his early form, and that of Podsiadly has covered the cracks in many teams, and meant the leading teams are scoring round results that were unprecedented at the start of the season, even to people who are TooSerious.
2) Analyse your needs.  Do you need the best available, do you need a point of difference, do you need a value candidate?  Valid questions all.
3) Think about your likely finals opponents in your leagues, and if you are going for a league win, what they would be likely to do, then you will need to play chess and either match their move, or counter it.  Think a few games ahead.  If you see danger in the GF then you might avoid Judd with a game in Freo, if you need to win first up you might need a Sainter.
4) I think you really have to choose from this list (assuming you already have Ablett, Goddard, Hodge):

Montagna 568k, 115 ppg, last 3: 118
Swan 629k, 121 ppg, last 3: 146
Judd 569k, 123 ppg, last 3: 113
Chapman 602k, 126 ppg, last 3: 127
Selwood 548k, 112 ppg, last 3: 113
Pendlebury 570k, 110 ppg, last 3: 120

Best value: Montagna (3), Judd (2), Selwood (1)
Best form: Swan (3), Chapman (2), Pendlebury (1)
Best point of difference: Swan (3), Pendlebury (2), Montagna (1)
Best flexibility: Chapman (MPP)
Best reliability: Montagna (3), Swan (2), Selwood (1)
Likely best R19: Montagna (3), Judd (2), Chapman (1)
Likely best R20: Judd (3), Montagna (2), Swan (1)
Likely best R21: Montagna (3), Pendlebury (2), Swan (1)
Likely best R22: Chapman (3), Selwood (2), Pendlebury (1)

On the other Best Buys:
DEF: H Shaw is the best but there’s plenty of value at just under 500k, or Lake just over.  Malceski, Enright, Gilbee are very strong.  If you want a POD there, Newman and Goodwin have done well recently with their teams improving form.  Sam Fisher is one that not everyone has.
FWD: Pavlich and Podsiadly are currently cheap.  Franklin, Didak, O’Keefe and Thomas are good options if you want to upgrade, but I’d be awaiting Riewoldt’s return this week with interest before jumping in there.  I’d also wait particularly with cover before giving JB the flick.  Having these two warhorses in SC finals could be critical.  The POD would be Thomas.  I’m thinking lots have Rioli (who is probably too expensive to buy).  Tippett at current prices and form could be an interesting POD to bring back in if you have Lobbe stinking up the ruck bench.
RUC: I just would stick with what I have.  Rucks are down and up like a yoyo outside of Lurch.
MID: I’ve given my thoughts on the top end.  Purely on POD factor I’d say Murphy or Gibbs are worth a look.  Murphy has been copping tags of late, but they may switch to Judd as the big matches come.

Until next week, happy trading…

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