Supercoach Finals – a preview
Hi all.
I’m not sure if I’m going to be able to get the Best Buys out this week (though there could be some real beauties in weeks to come that aren’t ripe now – read Hodge, Drummond, Pendlebury and Harvey). If I get an update out, great, if not, put down some of your bargains in the comments. Will help each of us out.
What I thought would be pertinent to do was look at the teams playing each other in the Supercoach finals weeks of Round 19-20-21-22. Because it could be curtains for some of your teams if you don’t do the analysis now. My team has a Buddy-Roughy front end which could come home like a freight train….but in what is very likely to be a knockout final I will have the Hawks v Saints down at Aurora. After the Lions belting still making me shiver, I am not looking forward to this.
Also I’ve done the sheet having say the Collingwood-Dogs match in Rd 22 as effectively a Dogs home game. Because the AFL was stupid enough to have us playing Dogs in 2 matches at the Dome within 10 weeks. Other games have been treated similarly.
So take a look at the draw, and let’s do some group think about the key matches that will go into crowing each other as Supercoach League winners in 2009!
|
|
Supercoach Finals | |||
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | |
| ADEL | COLL | HAW | WCE | CARL |
| BRIS | ESS | WB | PORT | SYD |
| CARL | GEEL | PORT | MELB | ADEL |
| COLL | ADEL | RICH | SYD | WB |
| ESS | BRIS | STK | FREO | HAW |
| FREO | PORT | MELB | ESS | GEEL |
| GEEL | CARL | SYD | WB | FREO |
| HAW | STK | ADEL | RICH | ESS |
| MELB | NM | FREO | CARL | STK |
| NM | MELB | WCE | STK | PORT |
| PORT | FREO | CARL | BRIS | NM |
| RICH | SYD | COLL | HAW | WCE |
| STK | HAW | ESS | NM | MELB |
| SYD | RICH | GEEL | COLL | BRIS |
| WB | WCE | BRIS | GEEL | COLL |
| WCE | WB | NM | ADEL | RICH |
| HOME | Team at home ground | |||
| AWAY | Team at opponent’s home ground | |||
| NEUTRAL | Team at neutral ground/ both i/state | |||
Don’t really have anything to add, just yet, on the fixturing…but the thing I’ll add is also to keep in mind players from teams not involved in AFL finals having surgery done during Supercoach finals. Personally, I’m to-ing and fro-ing over whether to buy Aaron Davey at the moment and this is a big factor for me. Any issue he has might lead to him being put out to pasture just when I need him the most!
Great story this is good information to help when the finals role around.
superroach.net come check it our everybody……. thanks to tooserious for letting us display our website great site here boys.
Cheers The Roach
good stuff Lucas (I think)
I have felt the collective pain of Roughead’s yoyo of a season, but as of yet I haven’t been on the Buddy train. But at 385K this week, I would have to say I’m tempted. Looking at the Hawks next 6 weeks, it isn’t that easy. They play WCE in Perth, plus the Dogs, Pies, Geelong and StKilda. (and I would agree that that game vs StKilda at Aurora in r18 is a little scary at the moment if you are in a knockout).
But having a look at Buddy and Roughy’s form at the MCG this year, it’s making me think that the Buddy/Roughy combo come finals could really work. The Hawks play their last 3 games at the G, against teams they either ’should’ win against or at least be ‘evens’ (Adelaide/Richmond/Essendon).
Looking at their form playing at the G so far this year (5 games) Buddy has averaged 95.4 and Roughead 96.6.
If Hawthorn’s backline and midfield settle in the second half , and based on injury returns you would think they ’should’, I am thinking it is a very good chance that both could come home real strong.
This is provided you don’t get knocked out in r18!
Final note- StK’s run home looks cruuuiiiissssyyyy. There could be some big saints scores in those last couple of weeks. And while Geelong was pushed against Freo this week, you’de think there is a good chance it could get ugly in r22 down at SS.
Cats v Freo round 22. GAJ’s last three Freo scores in SC are all below 100, I believe. Choosing whether to make GAJ captain that week may decide many GFs, and also who takes home $50K..
I’m just playing to make the finals to be honest. I don’t care what happens after that.
Some possible bargains for this week:
Defence:
Goddard $540k
Shaw $435k
Hodge $430k
Ellis $414k
Gilbee $409k
Gram $383k
Broughton $303k
Grima $234k
Hurley $154k
Pearce $83k
Midfield:
Dal Santo $552k
Davis $550k
Cross 470k
Boyd $456k
Forward:
Chapman $519k
Pavlich $507k
Didak $484k
Davey $466k
Brown $440k
Akermanis $391k
Walters $94k
good post Lucas!
good post swert.
I’m looking for a sub 225k forward to trade ziebell, Ackermanis is the only one on your list which fits the bill – would you take him over Scott Lucas, Bradshaw and Adam Schneider who are the others I’m considering atm. Lucas has had a great last couple of weeks after coming back from injury.
The Herald-Sun reports that Gilbee injured his ankle at training today. Eade reckons that Gilbee will named but will be iffy this week, I suspect.
This is going to be another train wreck weekend. Goodwin, Cox, Gilbee. Not cool kids, not cool.
Great table Lucas,
Something else i’ve managed to pull out of that is just how important the last four rounds are likely to be position jostling as well as deciding which two of the potential 10 finalists miss out.
In what i post below, i am assuming Stklida,Geelong,WB,C’wood,Brissy,Crows,Blues,Bombers,Hawks,Port and Swans are still in contention (sorry kangas fans, feel free to include yourselves in this list too). Going through the last four games each of these teams plays, ive tally’d the number of times each team plays another potential finalist in those final four rounds.
StKilda – 2
Geelong – 3
WB – 3
C’wood – 3
Brissy – 4
Crows – 3
Blues – 3
Dons – 3
Hawks – 3
Port – 2
Sydney – 3
It should make for a ripper last month with, assuming these 11 teams are still mathematically in contention come round 19, lots of “8-point” matches. The bulldogs are effectively 2 games clear at the moment however due to their large percentage. You would think in such an even year (bar stkilda and geelong) that percentage is likely to play a huge part come finals time to determine who gets the home games with many teams likely to end up on the same game scores. Time to place an emphasis on maximising wins – no fourth quarter ‘taking the foot off the accelerator’, and minimising the damage of losses against the top teams – no throwing in the towell and preserving players!
that should be potential ‘11′ finalists not 10, i ran out of fingers to count on
the only reason i have excluded the kangas is their percentage. with the usual requirement to win 12 of 22 games to play in the finals (may be 11 this year if its close), they may be able to win 7-8 of their last 10 but their <80 percentage is going to be hard to claw back
Just looking at downgrades over the next month, can only see a handful.
Anthony in the mid, Hurley down back although he is 170kish and Balla down fwd.
Anyone else potentially knocking on the door for a run ?
Simon – I would also include Broadbent from Port in the backline, He’s been knocking down the door at Port.
Sorry – dumb question – is Skilled Stadium the old Kardinia Park ?
Brian Lake is another potential value Defender $369k
McVeigh next week after his suspension @ 415k could be a bargain
@Spud – better not need to count to 21
I think teams will start tanking in about 5 weeks. Just not “officially tanking”. The Hawks given their tough run could be the first big name team to do this, much to the chagrin of the 50k muppets (no offence intended!)
@Simon – yep SS = Skilled Stadium = Kardinia Park. Kardinia Park still exists in Geelong, like Princes Park in Carlton, but they’ve renamed the oval in the midst of the parklands (if that makes sense)
@JJ / Mark78 – Saints run home makes you think just a bit harder when dismissing players like Milne and Schneider. Won’t get massive scores in the leadup, but you’d think with that last 4 they could be on song.
Here’s a ranking I set up for the finals draw. For each of the games in the last 4 rounds the team gets points based on how easy their draw is based on scores conceeded in Supercoach.
For example if a team plays Melbourne (highest supercoach points conceeded) they get 16 point or plays St Kilda (lowest supercoach points conceeded) they get 1 point, as so on for the numbers inbetween.
St Kilda and Richmond come out on top both with games against the highest points conceeder WCE and Melbourne in the last week. Surprisingly the Cats are on the bottom with games against Carlton, Sydney and Bulldogs in the last 4.
Team Rank Points
STK 51
RICH 43
ADE 40
WB 37
WCE 36
ESS 35
PORT 34
NTH 34
CARL 32
SYD 31
FRE 29
COLL 28
HAW 25
MELB 23
BL 22
GEEL 20
hey guys i know its a bit of topic but just wanted your expert opinions on what to do with my team.
backs: goddard, newman, ellis gilbee, houlihan, grimes, broughton (petrenko, drummond)
mids: judd, selwood, bartell, gibbs, rich, tuck (muston, beams)
rucks: cox, sandilands (spencer, jacobs)
fwds:pavlich, o’keefe, chapman, stevie j, deledio, higgins, skipworth (m brown, wright)
i have 190k and 11 trades left and currently sit 2100 overall.
my trading stragety is
tuck who i want to trade for ablett
muston or beams to a rookie
rich to pendles in a few weeks
houlihan to premium (not sure who)
skipworth to leon davis or possibly j brown (if price becomes to tempting to resist)
and one of either grimes or broughton to premium
thoughts would be much appriciated…
@ Lucas.
Hawthorn won’t start tanking. Hawthorn will start winning. All this talk about having a tough draw. How tough is it really. Half the teams are ordinary and I would back them to almost immediately become much more solid at the back. Gilham is a huge IN. Allows big Bob to go back into the ruck and dropping of Taylor or Renouf. A lot of those teams that Hawthorn are said to be 50-50 against, they’ll absolutely cream.
There is no doubt about this!! Time is running out but the Hawks are going to prove they are ‘good enough’ because there certainly is ‘enough time’.
@CA – would like to see the Hawks make a run, but they must start now. A loss this week and it’s 6-7 and almost season over.
@Juddy – fair side with trades to come. Ablett must come in soon. Houlihan to Drummond when he drops is good. You could also get into Harvey for Skippy and maybe Higgins for Roo.
You have options and now is almost time to bank them. You can go one a round from now on, or a cash cow upgrade each fortnight. Time your trades and run into finals in top form.
Also keep watching Hodge. If he starts to spark up with a few 120s his price will rise quickly. Don’t miss out if he gets going. But to me Drummond seems better value on return – abt 2-3 wks away from trading him in.
Really good ins for fantasy footballers this week – Ballantyne, Anthony, Broadbent for starters among the rookies.
No Cox will hurt, but personally speakig all my opponents have him and no back up on the bench, so it squares up in the end.
Good to see Ben Warren back as well – another bench option up forward while Simon Hogan remains close to selection at Geelong (my other forward bench player). Happy Beau Muston has got another game.
But all eyes will be on Mr Anthony and Mr Ballantyne one would think this week.
just quietly i am stoked that cox is out… havent had him all year, and every single opponent this week of mine (both SC and DT) has him with no sub rucks
hoping Grima does well and earns himself kudos for the downgrade i took
@ Lucas. 6-7 season would in no way be over. Hawthorn can beat every team they still have to play IF they find their form. They HAVE found the right line-up – hoping they can all stay out on the park. If they can click into some form over the next month, every game is winnable. If the form of the first half of the year continues, then finals are irrelevant cos they’d be chopped liver come finals time anyway.
My point is that Hawthorn could go 8 and 2 or 9 and 1 in their run home. Its ‘hard’ but at their peak, ‘hard’ games become steamrollings.
@ Andrew Campbell – I am in the same boat, absolutely loving Cox being out. That combined with Ziebell, Chornes and Drummond (as several have kept both) has given me several happy surprises with my match ups this week!!
Have been out tonight and only just checked the team lists.
At a quick glance, 5 of my 9 defenders are out…5! Putting two on the bench leaves 3, and even with two trades i still cop a zero and id rather bring in j.brown this week…sheesh. Serves me right for choosing midrange backmen (drummond,chornes,houli,m.clarke,petrenko). Hodge will come in for m.clarke probably as i cant see hodge falling any more with gilham back in (has to get 85’s…not exactly difficult). Trades remaining are forcing me to hold onto chornes, so the second to go this round may be houli for gilbert.
J.white will have to cover cox this week, and if there’s any late withdrawls ill spit the dummy and start on next years team!
Looks like hawthorn’s second half is going to start the same way the first half ended – 2 late exclusions and the replacements are hardly adequate.
Dew probably couldnt fit on the plane and gilham probably hopped on the wrong one!