The 2010 Draw Analysis
Hey the draw is out.
Web address: http://www.afl.com.au/fixture/tabid/10586/default.aspx
For what it’s worth I have done an analysis on this. Best viewed in Comments section as otherwise it clashes with other text…
I calculated each team if they play every other team once (16 for Melbourne, 1 for Geelong.)
Then I added points for all their double up teams (e.g. 16 for Melbourne, 1 for Geelong)
Then I added 8 points for home games vs a team travelling interstate, 4 points for home games vs neutral team. I also subtracted the reverse for away games.
Here’s the results. Unsurprisingly despite being given press saying they have the easiest draw, Collingwood and Essendon the Melbourne-based warrior teams have been stitched up. Though they don’t travel much, they play all the top teams twice and that makes a big difference. The Pies actually do badly because though they only play 4 interstate, only twice do they play a non-Victorian side in Melbourne – the others they have to play only once and only away (the worst thing possible)
The best draw, well that’s for the Power North Brisbane and Richmond. Remember this when picking fringe players for your SC team.
So don’t be fooled by media outlets. This is one of the biggest fallacies about the draw in recent years – that it’s fair or reasonable or anything other than something to give the clubs the most money. All driven by money, not by fairness.
In 2009, Geelong had a much harder draw than St Kilda and were arguably a better team in H&A last year but the results didn’t show that. Collingwood had a very soft draw and were overrated coming into finals. In 2008 Geelong won 21 H&A games but had a remarkably soft draw. The draw makes a difference, but when September comes around, remember the impact of the draw and this should improve your finals tipping strike rate.
Anyway here’s my analysis for what its worth. (The games 1-7 below are not in order other than alphabetic.) Also there is a tiny bug in the results. Anyone who finds it gets kudos from me.
| Last Year | 15 games | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | TOT | O/A | Home (vs i/state) | Home (neutral state) | Away (neutral state) | Away (vs i/state) | Differential | Overall | Draw Factor | +/- | |
| Adelaide | 5 | 131 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 66 | 197 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 201 | 70 | 10.4 |
| Brisbane | 6 | 130 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 55 | 185 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 189 | 59 | -0.6 |
| Carlton | 7 | 129 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 59 | 188 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 184 | 55 | -4.6 |
| Collingwood | 4 | 132 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 46 | 178 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 4 | -8 | 170 | 38 | -21.6 |
| Essendon | 8 | 128 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 37 | 165 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 169 | 41 | -18.6 |
| Fremantle | 14 | 122 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 63 | 185 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 189 | 67 | 7.4 |
| Geelong | 1 | 135 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 57 | 192 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 188 | 53 | -6.6 |
| Hawthorn | 9 | 127 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 54 | 181 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 3 | -4 | 177 | 50 | -9.6 |
| Melbourne | 16 | 120 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 182 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 62 | 2.4 |
| North Melbourne | 13 | 123 | 14 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 68 | 191 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 199 | 76 | 16.4 |
| Port Adelaide | 10 | 126 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 71 | 197 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 205 | 79 | 19.4 |
| Richmond | 15 | 121 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 66 | 187 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 191 | 70 | 10.4 |
| St Kilda | 2 | 134 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 69 | 203 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 191 | 57 | -2.6 |
| Sydney | 12 | 124 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 61 | 185 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 189 | 65 | 5.4 |
| West Coast | 11 | 125 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 59 | 184 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 184 | 59 | -0.6 |
| Western Bulldogs | 3 | 133 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 57 | 190 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 4 | -4 | 186 | 53 | -6.6 |
| Higher = Easier |
Ach sheit, it looks terrible when loaded up. Oh well you get the drift. Best looking at it from the comments page.
When you say Geelong had a harder draw than St.Kilda in 2008, dont you mean 2009 (this year). Also, Geelong winning 21 H&A games with a soft draw in 2007, should be 2008, right? Other than that looks pretty good…Adios to Scott Pendlebury in my team, the fixture is crucial to picking a SC team
Ah yes. Noted and fixed
@ Lucas
Great analysis and an interesting formula you have used. By the way do you reckon it would be more accurate using a universal 2010 ladder predictor rather than the 2009 ladder.
Keep up the great work mate, Stubz/The 30 Spartans
Hey guys, knows its a little quiet in here but after some help if possible? Basically I work with a company that does fantasy AFL games and I guess just wanted some advise on what you like about SuperCoach, what you dont? What you have seen in other games (whether it be AFL or any other sport) that you like or dont like. Any advise would be great!!! Thanks heaps, Cheers Dave
@ Dave – I like Supercoach because it rewards points for quality not just possession. IMHO I think it is harder to be good at SC than DT becuase you have to choose players who use the ball effectively and who don’t make too many clangers, etc. I also like the look and feel of the site plus its easy to navigate, etc. What I’d like to see with SC is more stuff during the off season. Perhaps have available a pre-season comp where you try different players, make different squads, etc which then helps when you pick your final squad. Perhaps even have a run down of the draft, etc.
I like the EPL fantasy game too. It allows a trade per week and provides heaps of stats which I’d like to see more of in SC. It gives you options about how to play the game: total points or games against others in your league. I also play the Champions League but its harder because the team lineups change so much plus we are so far away its difficult to keep up with injuries, etc. The Sportal fantasy soccer is annoying as it is slow to update and not very flexible regarding lineups, etc.
thanks Heater for the info… much appreciated! Happy to hear other peoples opinions! Thanks!!!
I like supercoach as it is easy to navigate and it looks good. I find that the prices for players is better also as there are higher prices for higher draft picks etc.
I like the iinet fantasy competition as it has a prize for the highest ranked league at the end which is good
Dave, Supercoach needs to do away with the the Brent Harvey situation this year when he got injured before he had scored any points in the game thus allowing the emergency to cover his position. In my opinion, once you are named in the final 22, your score should count. It is just bad luck if one of your players gets injured without scoring.
Apart from that everything looks good, it will be interesting to see how you run the comp in 2011 when the bye is happening every week. Any thoughts as to how you are going to handle that?
2011 – with the bye coming in, I’d say there will be a premium on good interchange players. I’d prefer that there were no more trades, but that teams would have to show a greater resilience and a better team balance over the year to win.
But who knows what they have cooked up for us at HQ.
Good to see Sheedy get the gig at GWS. I thought he has been unfairly maligned at Essendon. Knights has changed a game plan but with a team that had already started development (youth-wise) under Sheedy his results are patchy in terms of WL.
Will love to see the first game at Docklands Essendon v West Sydney.
I thought Sheeds was unfairly maligned at Essendon too, until I read his book, where he claimed Essendon should have kept Kepler Bradley. That instantly made me lose all respect for him as a judge of talent, so I hope they get really good talent scouts to take advantage of all those top draft picks.