Nab continuation.
So, just a quick post to keep the NAB talk in the right threads.
Seems Ball is doing his darnedest to remove himself as a point of difference in my team. And Heater is doing nothing wrong so far. (Though we all know how *he* works.)
Armitage has me cursing his three games last year! He wold have been a fantastic pick up if he wasn’t so highly priced. Particularly with Ball being out of that midfield now.
It was certainly interesting to see Cloke have 7 shots at Goal last night- with a very Buddy-like kicking performance, it’ll be interesting to see if this year is finally the year he steps up.
Tonight is the Sydney/Carlton game. A game where both teams rucks structures could be *very* important this year.
Anyways, Go NAB!
Didak and Davis are the ones teams can most efficiently shut down with tags – and I reckon that’ll continue through this year (StKilda did it with success last weekend).
This means I reckon more teams will go head to head with guys like Swan and Pendlebury.
Jb – that price drop was directly attributable to the injury and the 0 point game. he was 500K+ before the 0 game and his price dropped away stepply afterwards. In addition, I think 3 or 4 of his sub 100 point games last year were in rounds after he came back from injury and was being nursed a little – eased into the side.
There were arguments he shouldn’t have even been back on the park at that stage, so to get 80s and 90s out of him in those circumstances would probably be worth 100+ in normal circumstances.
I am thinking about not playing Pendlebury. He’s certainly not a locked in player in my team by any means for the reasons stated.
Like Dal Santo of previous years, the games he can sometimes string together a few 80-90 scores, and as such could become a viable upgrade target at another time in the year.
Thing is, with Selwood and Pendlebury you get a similar output and a similar fluctuation in scores. Both will cop a tag now and again, but there are other viable targets for opponent attention at both clubs, namely Ablett/Swan.
If there were no concerns about the fitness of Murphy, I think he’d be a safer option than these two; though possibly less likely to improve.
Judd looks like a good upgrade target, and there’s good things to be said for Saints midfielders given their powder puff draw (Collingwood, Essendon and Adelaide the only top 8 teams they play twice, and they have 14 at home).
Probably the biggest issue is fitting the right mix into your midfield, working out your keepers and who you can get later.
My thoughts on the >550k mids and their value:
Ablett: 50k overpriced (but you’d take that)
Montagna: 70k over
Swan: 40k over
Hayes: 40k over
Dal Santo: 20-30k over
Goddard: 30k over
Chapman: 15k over
Goodes: 15k over
Murphy: 10k over
Pendlebury: about right
Davis: 60k over
Sewell: 40k over
Judd: 25k over
Selwood: about right
Bartel: about right
ROK: 20k over
Mitchell: 25k over
Corey: 20k over
Gibbs: about right
Didak: 30k over
Boyd: 30k over
Priddis: 25k over
On that basis, I see really only Davis and Montagna as no go zones. Ablett is a given in most teams. Swan/Hayes/Sewell could be no go zones. The best value appears to be Selwood/Pendlebury/Gibbs which would surprise no one who looks for emerging quality mids. Bartel is the other smoky – loves the wet, 16 GF tackles, 14 at either MCG/SS – and can go big.
What a shame you only pick 6 mids, and have 7 defenders and forwards. I’ve always thought that to be around the wrong way. With the way the game is going, I’d have thought 8 mids, 6 forwards, 6 backs and 2 rucks is a more realistic 22. MPPs will have to suffice.
nice thinking there
i still think pendlebury will get better this year
im thinking i might upgrade watson to judd early
woah… ease up there champ, trades are much to precious to be doing something like that!
If you’re getting Watson in, you’re keeping him for the year!
I agree with walesy! Your much better off saving some cash in the bank and getting a midrange mid like ziebell/dangerfield/shiels wait until there prices have gone up and judds down a bit then upgrade. Unless you get a serious injury you should never trade a premium to a premium.
Lucas – I reckon you’re around the mark on all those over/unders. Really good work.
The only question mark of the 4 you mention above would be Gibbs, simply becase of Judd being out and Murphy coming off an injury … will he cop the tag and maybe drop away in points?
Just throwing one out there what do you think about Westhoff as a forward option?
Lots of us are going to need one of Medhurst/Ziebell/Westhoff/Dangerfield, and given how well Clark/Ryder did a ruck transition, is the Hoff capable of doing it? Maybe not to the same extent but able to pick up handy points he wouldn’t otherwise.
Throw Mark Williams, Rhan Hooper and Leroy Brown into the mix. All seem likely to get a run for most games this year given team structures.
Williams – a proven 2×60 goal full-forward (pre Buddy/Roughie) can kick straight, and in a team without Lloyd/Lucas. When he did kick 60 goals, he averaged 80 SC points.
Hooper – if Rioli gets a late start, it’s him vs Stokes. Line-ball and both would represent possible value, but they would come under pressure to keep their spot in the team from the other you’d think.
Leroy – a cult figure at Collingwood, every time you think finally he will get the chop for someone better, he finds another position to make himself useful in. If he takes that bullocking Viduka/Rocca style role up forward for Collingwood, I can see him churning out regular 70s.
Staker/Ballantyne/Warren would get a look, but probably not quite at the level.
Really hoping Ben Reid cements CHB in the NAB so I can have him for the year as the F7, but not convinced at the moment.
@Chris88
Gibbs may go up and down if he gets a tag, but fact remains that eventually Judd will return and that will ease pressure. For these guys spending over 500k you really don’t want to trade them again for the year, and over the course of the season, you’d think that Gibbs will earn his $.
Funny story Lucas, my current squad has 3 forwards in the 300-350ish price range, and you’ve only mentioned one for them.
Go the smokies!
As for Westhoff, Ryder was always rated at the bombers for his athleticism. I don’t know if Westhoff has got that same ability in him.
He’ll also need Brogan to go down.
@Lucas,
Just regarding your previous post, Stokes did his ACL late last season (late july from memory) and wont see senior footy this year as he will come back thru box hill later in the year. Perhaps gives more weight to your hooper suggestion if rioli doesnt pull up straight away?
On the topic of fwd smokies….what does everyone think about polkinghorne? He’s a pretty talented young player who has been going well in preseason and could see some time in the middle…
@Spud
That’s a shame for Stokes. He would have been good fresh meat even later in the year.
I don’t want to even think about Hooperman in my team truth be told.
The bigger question is can I break down who the other forwards in Walesy’s team is
Let’s try:
Henderson, Reimers, Jurrah
You did name one of them above. I’m pretty sure he was in my new-years day team.
The other two though- no, no, no. 
As for the Polk, we was on a lot of lists til this past weekend. He did not do himself any favors.
I’ll still be watching him though.
Whats with all the Stokes love Lucas? As a proud Hawthorn supporter I cringe everytime he got a game last year, I don’t know why they persist with him given the depth of talent at the club.
I would throw up Hansen as a guess…
Lindsay Thomas, 4th year player, midfield rotation, gotta be one of them!
Don’t make me start giving clues!
Fine. One is big risk reward who I’m *expecting* to upgrade *when* he goes down injured. 
As for the other guy, those last two guesses were very close.
Murphy
you did say injured…not suspended!
Bingo. The boy could have been anything after 2008. If you try to work out the boy’s average last year, taking out the games we was injured, and his recovery *from* injury games. He could be the bargain of the year. I can definitely see him being a 1 trade to a 500k+ guy. Easy.
Clark and Ryder became the number one ruckman with little support. If Brogan goes down Westhoff could be a steal. But if Lobbe wins the spot and Westhoff spends most time forward… well that might not be too bad either.
Thinking about it he’s a pretty good option. I can see him improving if given time in the ruck and I can see him improving by becoming a more consistent forward this year. The Return of Tredrea helped him a bit and Tredrea going down is about the only thing that I think could hurt him.
If you’re not sold on Medhurst/Dangerfield/Ziebell then he is worth a look and he could be a unique selection that would give you a handy edge if it worked, but if not could also leave you behind.
I was looking at my midfield and trying to get Premium/mid players from the bigger clubs (Adelaide, Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn, StKilda, Western Bulldogs.) Most of them look a bit too expensive for me, but the Dogs had a few who interested me.
Obviously everyone is jumping on Cooney and rightly so. His early 2008 was outstanding and if he can get back to that then he is well underpriced. He is really a 100 avg player priced at 91 so he is value no matter what. I’m not 100% sold on him so I’m still looking around. I don’t want to have the same midfield as everyone else.
Ryan Griffen, I’ve always said no to him, but something about his last year has caught my attention, he was more consistent. He did still jump all over the place but he started to have bigger games more often. With Cooney fit he may free up a bit and could step it up. But obviously a big risk and a long shot.
Callan Ward, A 3rd year player who will rotate through the midfield. He got better as the year went on last year and I can only see him going up. I’m a big fan of his but the question is would you rather just spend the extra 120k on Cooney? Most people would. Cooney is a keeper and this kid would need to be upgraded at some stage, but you could turn him into one of the Blues or Saints which in my opinion are much better options than Cooney in the long term. I think the Blues will have a slow start (maybe not Gibbs) and I think one of Hayes/Dal Santo/Montagna will drop down a fair bit early and then jump back up later on.
I just hope Armitage can get good TOG because I’d love to have him in my team at M4.
Matty campbell or thomas?
That’s the ticket Mark, Round 3, Pick #34 2006 Rookie Draft.
Keep an eye on him. Hopefully his NAB performances don’t get every man and their respective dogs onto him. He had a superb first year, fell away last year and is now moving into his third year, with a big gap in the midfield to fill. I reckon he’s the pick of the lot with the North 300k squad. (And boy, is there a lot of them! 
)
Could be Walsey, or he will do his hammy in rd1 and miss 3 or 4
Worth the risk, partic if does well in the next couple of pre season games.
He is smooth, if he just string 10+ games together will be a great selection, prefer the likes of him & thomas to ziebel this year.
I need some advice guys…I have M2 to fill and $650K who would you get? (I already have pendles and Ablett.)
If money is no limit then get Swan (4k should be findable) if not then Selwood/Bartel.
Swan or montagna
That’s the thing – stringing games together. We saw what he was able to do when he strung a few together in 2008, but in 2009 he couldn’t and dropped 25ppg from his 2008 average.
Encouraging first up in NAB Cup … and his price is goodwould be nice, just from a footy perspective, to see him shine this year given the obvious talent that he has.
I’d take Swan, but I do see a case for Joey. I’d still recommend going with Ablett + cheaper options who have more upside.
that should say cheaper premiums
Charman stretchered off against the blues at Visy..
mitch robinson doing well again
mcguire playing on kreuzer at ff
Good one Mark, keep the updates coming!
Nice updates Mark, appreciate it. Interesting to see Kreuz up at ff again :s
Yeah to me that’s a good indication that he will be playing FF alot more this year. Disappointing really. Guess they had to after chasing Warnock so hard and trading Fev.
Sammy Mitchell as a premium mid? Got the impression he was tagged a bit last year but still found plenty of the footy. Could he be freed up a bit this year with Hodge moving to midfield and Burgers to come in at some stage?
I’m subscribing to the same newsletter Tylo.
Mitchell is consistent. Could do much worse than pick him. Imo a solid pick. Personally I would rather a Selwood/Pendles but Mitchell won’t let you down either. Just be careful about his role though. He was played alot on half back last year and with Hodge, Rioli and Burgers playing midfield he could still spend time on the Half back line. Personally I don’t think it will effect his scores but just something to keep an eye on. As a Hawk fan I’d prefer him to stay in the middle. Apart from Ling he seems to handle the tag reasonably well.
Mark, did you happen to see much of M.Maguire or rockliff for Brissy? The match report has both of them as in the best top5 for Brisbane which i find interesting. If Rockliff has backed up his performance from the week before then he could be looking the goods. Pleased to see J.B listed as well, glad he’s still a likely premium player.
Boys, you may have had this one before, but….Medhurst or Ziebell or any other in that range. leaning towards the Med personally, but Zieb has plenty of up side?
Simple misunderstanding fellas, just having a light hearted joke at the pies. It’s all good. What I want to know about the pies game was did Medhurst and Ball play and if so how did they go?