Season Ticker
Alright, it’s ugly, and it may or may not help you, but it’s up for general consumption.
The Season Ticker. Just click the ticker tab and you’ll see it in all it’s technicoloured glory. (ps- if someone wants to suggest less obnoxious colours, feel free- I’ve gone with generic colours to start with.)
Anyways, the nuts and bolts of things.
Firstly, it’s based on the last 12 weeks of games. So it will change week by week.
It’s based on the positions provided by the prospectus- not by Virtual Sports- So I’m hoping that adds to it’s accuracy.
It rates things based on a teams performance in relation to every other team. So if a team has come up against a firing Cox twice within the 12 games, it’s going to rate them harshly.
So, I haven’t had too much of a play- but at first glance, I can see that Geelong looks nice- while the Hawks look to have an ugly start.
Meanwhile, Cox look a tasty prospect from day 1 while Fremantles defenders and mids might find themselves in for a little pain at the start.
One thing of interest. Sydney crushed rucks last year. I wonder if that is a game style thing, or a Jolly thing- and I wonder if that will translate to Collingwood?
Anyways, have a play. Let me know what you think about it.
Just about to check it out mate.
On the ruck comment quickly though, i reckon it’s both a Jolly and a Sydney thing. Jolly was (is) an extremely dominant ruckman, and with Sydneys stoppage style game, there were a lot more ballups for him to contest and dominate than perhaps will be the case in a black and white guernsy. This is my reasoning which has got me steering away from him as a ruck choice just because of the uncertainty. To each their own though, and the guy is a brilliant ruckman.
Not working for me – error.
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Bugger! I swear, it was working before I went to bed last night!
Heh, turns out it was working if at anytime in the season, you had clicked on the Stats tab.
It will work without that now.
Yeh seems to be working now
Is it based on where players were last year, or does it take in to account players who have changed teams. eg, does Collingwood’s ruck stats include how Jolly went last year against the various teams (including Collingwood I suppose), or are his stats included in Sydney’s ruck figures?
It’s based on where they were last year. So Cox scoring big against Sydney won’t affect Collingwoods scores this year.
Gee, one thing the ticker tells me quite clearly is that Richmond are crap – lots of green and blue.
Then again, probably didn’t need the ticker to tell me that!
Working for me now too – what about a warning for the need for sunglasses!!
looks good Walesy – u da man!
not sure how helpful it is at this point of this season when picking initial team, but could prove very handy in the round 14-16 trade period!
The funny thing is Chris88, it’s independent of the team itself. So the fact that Richmond has so much green and blue is independent of their own skill level. They just have a hard run! (Though it doesn’t help that they can’t play themselves!!)
Yeah, I like looking at it to predict players to pick up, more than who to start with. Carlton Mids should be ripe come round 8- So perhaps it might pay to avoid Gibbs/Murphy until then?.
I’m a bit confused as to the relationships between teams, because from my understanding these relationships would vary from team to team. All i see is where each team comes up against a certain team the relationships are exactly the same.
For example:
When all teams come up against Essendon, DEF = Cool MID = Cool RUCK= Hot FWD = Warm
or against Melbourne, all 4 positions are Warm
or Against Carlton, all 4 positions are Average
This is the same for every team.
In a real world situation i would rate St Kilda’s or Geelong’s midfield far superior than Essendon’s. Yet when these two teams come up against the Bombers, their MID rating is COOL. Then again, I could be just misreading the information.
I’m seeing the same thing Tim, am I missing something here?
Yep, that’s pretty much the point. We all know that Geelongs midfield goes alright- it’s represented in their price.
What isn’t easy to track is that Rucks go well against both the Bomber and Brisbane. Which isn’t overly intuitive as Ryder and Clark were considered excellent rucks last year. But their defensive work just wasn’t there.
Or that Bulldogs, Collingwood and St. Kilda will lockdown scoring in the forwardline- and that Adelaide will front up to all 3 of these teams in the last 4 weeks. So trading into Adelaide’s forwards would be a bad idea.
Also, I’m hoping to pick up on the seasonal trends. Last year, Hawthorn we leaking points like a sieve. And Sydney stopped being the lock-down specialists of old. Picking up on these trends sooner will lead to a distinct advantage moving forward with that knowledge.
Looks good Walesy,
Though it’s it bit hard to make out trends bit much happening.
It would be good to have a numberical score (1 for hot, 5 for cold), then total around times when cash cows mature such as first 7 games, second 7 games, third 7 games and grand final (for league wins).
So you’d have some thing like
ADE Round 1-7 Round 8-14 Round 15-21 Round 22
- Def 10 5 12 5
- Mids 12 9 15 16
- For etc…..
- Ruc
This would then help identify the teams to get rookies from and the teams to look for, for depressed premiums.
Don’t know if this makes any sense, I hope it does?
Whoa in my blinded state I reached for my sunnies but accidently picked up the 3D glasses they gave me at Avatar… when I looked back at the multicoloured ticker through them it showed me the future.
For those who are curious; Ablett drops off severely this year so get him out of your squad now, whilst Seaby becomes a rucking menace averaging over 100 so get on him and Robbie Warnock who plays 22 games and averages 75!
On a side note, Andrew Lovett returns through Carlton’s reserves and in 2012 becomes the best wet weather footballer in the league after all his practice from shaking tackles in the prison showers and scooping up the soap.
Seriously though walesy, great work – hopefully your continued efforts put me in good stead for a top 100 finish this year.
Only the Jolly factor, I did an analysis last and found Sydney had the best ruck draw (as far as hitouts go). I took the 16 teams hitouts conceeded and gave them a rank so (Freo = 1, Hawthorn = 16 ,etc). The sum of these were totaled for the year to see how had the best ruck draw.
Sydney came out on top best they only player West Coast (Cox) and Freo (Sandi) once and played Carlton, Hawks twice
Would be interested to see how it turned out this year.
Team Rank
SYD 205
ESS 197
COLL 194
FRE 189
CARL 188
NTH 188
RICH 188
GEEL 187
BL 186
STK 186
WCE 186
PORT 185
MELB 183
ADE 181
WB 179
HAW 170
OK, so i guess i was looking into the relationships a little too deeply, but i think i understnad it now.
From what i can see:
- Carlton MIDS should be great upgrade targets at Rd 8
- Collingwood MIDS at RD 12
- Port will have a purple patch Rd 8-14
- Sydney FWDs should be great upgrades from Rd 9 (Goodes anyone?)
- Doggies MIDS will be up and down all seasons, but could be great value from Rd 14
- WC will dominate early but go cold mid-season
I think it gives us a good idea, but only a general idea. There’s always the question of who they played in the past 12 games which if they have an easier draw would make them appear harder opposition.
It ignores the history of two teams. For instance Ess V Coll type blockbusters, rivalry type games. Team usually get up for these types of game. So remember those things when looking at it.
It’s still a handy tool but one that I won’t take alot of interest in yet. It might sway me one way or another if I’m struggling to choose between player A or B when trading during the year.
Nice job. This will be a handy tool during the year for sure. I wouldn’t base my whole decision on this but if your tossing up between two players it might just help you decide.
On a side note does anyone know where we can see Chris’ team at the start of last year? If so can you post a link up please?
On Jolly, just reading some stats that he got more hitouts last year than Lurch.
I would think that against teams that have beaten Collingwood tactically in the past, the Pies might try an around the ground option as per usual, but instead of having a draught horse doing the ruckwork they will have a thoroughbred.
It remains a mystery to me why Malthouse has always gone with relatively dud ruckmen. I think if he had got Dean Cox at Collingwood, or a Harry Madden type at the WCE (instead of Harding, Ball, McKee, Fraser, Richards, Bryan, Wood) then there could have been 3 WCE flags and 1 Collingwood. Only really because Mick’s general game plan out of defence is to hug the flanks so if you turn it over, you don’t give the opposition an easy scoring opportunity.
But if you hug the flanks, you need the best skills in the league or you are certain to eventually put the ball out of bounds for lots of throw-ins. This has been a problem for Collingwood recently – producing stoppages but then being clearly beaten by the opposing ruckman.
Until now. Go Jolly you good thing!!!
Sandi didn’t fly to melbourne, but I don’t think that indicates an injury concern. from what harvey’s been saying, it was the plan all along to rotate players each game and he seriously considered bringing him over to help them get into the NAB cup final for hype purposes.
Cool idea Walsey!
What stood out to me (As a hawthorn fan) is that EVERY team is in HOT form against the Hawks Rucks!…I probably shouldn’t be suprised…
Seaby a lock for r2. May not b a keeper but will rise to a point that allows close to a straight swap with Sandi or cox when they drop. Sandi went to 405k last year before coming good. Seaby is the hmac of 09 & simmonds of 08
Interesting call on Seaby. I think there are more who would say Hille is the HMAC of 2009.
I will need more to convince me about Seaby, particularly with Mumford in the wings. Lots of good judges rated Mumford at Geelong and were annoyed when he left.
Its getting awfully hard to not have Bazza isnt it…..
He is looking very good. Just kicks so damn well, no yips! Will get a lot of opportunities to kick goals/take marks this year, as has been said. I’m coming around.
Also Gray, Banner, Hitchcock, D. Stewart, Moles, Murph, Coondog and Grifin all looked good at various times.
Great clutch mark and goal just now!
Sorry, mark and handball. Okay enough spamming from me.
Barry does have Presti Rd 1…..followed by Rich/Haw……does that make him more of a Rd 4 acquisition?
Yep, snuck Bazza in at F5 after last week’s game and he’s locked in there now…surely worth the punt the way he’s playing, at the price….
Seaby call is based on him taking over from jolly. Mumford is not close to first ruck based on what he offered at the cats as he couldn’t displace Blake. He’s priced at 55 and I’m confident he can get 70 at least while I don’t see the consistency to justify a $500k spend outside of Clark. He’s r1 for me
mitch farmer getting some good reviews of the tigers BF board.
The biggest thing about Mumford was the massive rate of improvement he had. It was through commitment and he has a good base and looks like he will become one of the better ruckman in the comp in a few years time. At least to me who watched him.
Seaby is the number one ruckman so he’ll get more game time, but Mumford isn’t far behind him and if he starts to show something he could be given number one spot.
But I think both of them will spend close to 50/50 in the ruck with Seaby to possibly play around the ground while Mumford might just rest on the bench.
Hi Walesy,
Just have one request I think would be great for the ticker.
Could we get a box where we can filter how many rounds we want the ticker to go back to color code the boxes.
Eg Currently it is set at 12
What abouts after 4 rounds if we want to see how teams have matched up over those 4 rounds as defenses might of changed etc.
Any chance at getting this implemented so that we can have different options available to us
Thanks and doing a great job
Not in the short term – at least not in a timely matter anyways.
Currently, it crunches all the data once, and displays that for everybody.
I reckon I could add a set list of options to view though and crunch the numbers for all of them.
4, 8, 12 or something.
4, 12, 22 – short, medium and long term ?
Yeh something along those lines would be great!
Think we need some that are shorter term particularly how a defense might play when key players go down to injuries or guys that have retired from the year before etc etc.