TooSerious Discussions – What to do about Rucks.
Time and time the question comes up- What the heck are we suppposed to do about rucks this year?
Never before have we been this spoiled for choice in the rucks. It was lock in Cox and the flavor ruck of choice, and it’s gangbusters from there.
This year, we’ve a great supply of premium rucks to chose from, all with their unique downsides, and nice handful of bargain rucks- who as with all players returning from injury, look to carry their own risks.
Tonight we have myself, lucas and last years SuperCoach Chris weighing in on the discussion over the break.
(And read the post under this one for a league update as well as a brand new FREE competition!)
So, it’s a tough topic tonight, so I think I’ll weigh in first.
When Lucas first raised this as a topic to discuss, my initial plan was to mock up a gag dartboard, complete with each of the “choose-able” rucks displayed, and Port Adelaide’s Daniel Bass on the outside- It’s just that hard a topic.
Sadly my mad skillz in paint aren’t quite as mad as I had hoped and that gag will never see the light of day.
The good news is that you’ll get a serious response from me.
Now, I figured the two ways to take this discussion is to discuss the three viable rucking strategies available.
Firstly, let me say- those of you with the plan to run with two bargain rucks and a prayer- I wish you guys luck, I don’t think I would ever have a cajones to do such a thing. Plus I definitely see better value in mid-priced players in every other position. Though if you do do it, either plan to start with Tippett, or look to upgrade to Petrie in that forward line!
- The players from this category I would count as Ottens, Hille, Naitanui, White, Seaby, Mumford, Leuenberger, Warnock and now SkipperNext, we come to the Set and Forget. Here we have two premiums *hopefully* batting out the entire year for you. I say hopefully because we all saw what happened last year in the rucks! This strategy, there isn’t much to fault. It’s the safe option. Even if one of your rucks was to suffer in scoring from reduced TOG or a new team, or a ruck returning from injury, or some young upstart improving, you’re sure to find yourself scoring well with the escape plan of easily being able to trade out into another ruck.
- Premium rucks of choice include Cox, Sandilands, Clark, Jolly, McIntosh, Ryder, Tippett, Kreuzer and Brogan (Sorry Fraser).
However, it’s the third option that is most intriguing for mine, One premium One Bargain.
For starters, you limit your risk on both fronts. You get your pick of the premium Rucks and you also oget your pick of the mid-ranger. However, when the time comes along to upgrade (Whether through price-peak or injury) – Suddenly, you have incite into which of the premiums haven’t fallen over as so many rucks tend to do!Well, that’s the theory anyways.
Next up, Lucas
There are a few options I am considering at the moment:
First it would be the simple tried and true of a super-premium Sandilands and a very solid Kreuzer. The danger with this combination is that it costs a lot and does not allow me a heavily premium midfield to go on a “whacking day” in the first few rounds against people who have loaded up with rookies.
To do this it may need either Hille to be installed into R2, or potentially to play Warnock in R2 but use Lobbe in R4 to allow a Tippett forward line player into the role. This would allow Tippett to be the future R2, or upgraded to Petrie later in the season.
Warnock would have to show me more to take that R2. Leuenberger is also on my radar but to be honest has never impressed me. At least in his Freo career Warnock looked to have the goods.
So it’s either Sandi-Kreuz, Sandi-Hille or Sandi-MPP. These are my three options currently.
And finally, Chris
So there are generally 2 options in the rucks….a premium strategy, or a premium/undervalued strategy. This year sees the introduction of a new strategy, being MPP. So lets look at the advantages/disadvantages of each:
Premium Strategy : As the name suggests, this would be safest, highest points accumulating strategy. You would be thinking 2 of Cox, Sandi or Clark here. VERY expensive strategy, but pretty much guaranteed 200+ points from your rucks every week which is invaluable. If one of your rucks goes down, you have a back up aswell, because you simply pick up the other premium that you decided against (money permitting of course) only requiring 1 trade (hopefully). The downside is obvious, the money. Is that money on the 2nd premium better spent elsewhere?
Premium/Undervalued Strategy : So you pick up your premium, which in years passed is always Cox. This year a bit more thought needs to go into it with Sandi closing quickly on Cox, and Mitch Clark having a super 2nd half of ‘09. This is the strategy I personally adapted the last 2 years with ‘08 seeing Simmonds and ‘09 being H-Mac. This allows you to spend that saved $200-250k elsewhere which is perfect. This year there would again seem an obvious undervalued ruck in David Hille. There is also talk of a more expensive, undervalued ruck this season being Kreuzer. Less risky than Hille, but of course more expensive. So this is a risky strategy as the undervalued ruck is generally returning from a knee injury, and we all know thats not good a thing. If you trust the 2nd ruck tho, this is the strategy to go.
MPP : The only 2 options here to start are Petrie and Tippett. Petrie is missing the first few games, so he’s a no-no and Tippett can still deliver games of 30-40. Neither of these are premium, nor undervalued, so i can’t see too many people having an MPP starting ruckman. Different equation on the bench though. Everyone knows the ruck bench should have as few dollars there as possible so it should be 2 rookies on your bench. If we stick in Lobbe of PTA, we have a little bit of flexibility if we then choose Tippett as a forward. The MPP debate has raged for many a week, so i’m not going into detail, suffice to say the MPP bench player is a strategy I’d suggest lots of people will be taking on this season.
Personally, my thoughts on rucks are set and forget so 2 premiums is the obvious choice. A slightly riskier option would be premium/Hille. If Hille plays well and scores u a 70+ average then this is clearly the best option. Can you trust Hille though?
And that’s it- three fairly solid opinions on the ruck situation. Hopefully you can take something out of this that will help you in your situation!
And don’t forget the MPP option! Even if it’s a matter of saving one of your forward line for a Petrie upgrade- Rucks have always been a minefield of players not playing 22! Don’t leave yourself with a donut in the rucks because you didin’t plan ahead!
(Also, keep in mind that this was mostly written prior to this weekend- I just kept dragging my feet on posting it! )
Beau has been sitting on my bench since 09.
He’s just such great value at that price! Still a *huge* risk though!
Hurn has a suspected groin injury. 1-2 weeks, so keep an eye on that. We all know how groin injuries go.
God, I’ve just looked at my team and realised I have no MPP options. I have MPP players in the side – Hodge for eg, or Pav – but none where there can be a switch done.
Strange, very strange.
Any link for Hurn’s injury
Looks like he player OK last weekend
http://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/attacking-hurn-hurts-scrappy-blues-in-eagles-win/story-e6frg1wu-1225837738607
Is Waters too much of a risk to be at D7? Having him there potentially solves alot fo the ruck dillemmas (ie: being able to afford a set and forget two premium ruck combo)
Ben – I reckon a lot of us have kept our eyes on Waters during the pre-season … my personal call is that he is a risk, but that he might well be a calculated risk given that his form and fitness during the pre-season seem to be very good.
The reports from the website I linked to – a site past reading suggests is populated by a bunch of pretty realistic Eagles supporters not taken to flights of fancy – has enthused me into doing a switcheroo and bringing Waters off my bench and into D7.
Pending Brisbane’s game on the weekend, or any rookie elevations, Waters’ former D8 spot might end up taken by Maguire or another rookie somewhere along the line. And Maguire is, of course, a risk too!!!
haha, I love that west coast summary there:
“Glass:
Solid down back as ever and took a pretty big hang in the second half (couldn’t believe it). Some questionable kicking skills were on display, which will probably justify his more preferred tactic of handballing to Hurn 90% of the time.”
i’ve got waters pencilled in @D7 atm, it’s him there or hitchcock/rockliff at F7 as far as I’m concerned.
Do you guys think the Goose will get a game? I figure Merrett/Patful are Brissys 2 key defenders, so there’s no space for him?
JJ – a similar situation with me – Waters D7 and Hitchcock/Rockliff at F7 (pending rookie elevations and the like).
Rockliff’s an interesting one.
IMO It all depends on your team as a whole, if you have taken a fairly conservative approach then taking a risk on Waters isn’t such a big deal. Personally I have Waters pencilled in at D8, but I have a few other players in my team that are are high risk so couldn’t justify starting him.
On Hurn, if he’s fit I think he is a will have another big year, he has one of the best disposals in the league and gets alot of it off HB.
Eagles struggle to get it out cleanly without Hurn, gotta think he is gonna get a fwd tag this year.
Chris 88, I was thinking a Waters/Mitch Farmer combo at d7/d8, on the basis that farmer will be starting for the tigers, sound right to you?
Interesting to note on afl.com.au that Jono Brown was asked to give his tips on his teamates for DT. The comments on Matt Maguire were very encouraging straight from the horses mouth. D7 is now – Waters out for Maguire and $50k saved in the process! MPP’s in Hodge and Goodard if back-up required
@chris88 I’m doing the same, looking at Hurn and going why did I overlook you?
I’d much prefer him to H Shaw myself. Thinking of putting him in but I’m about 10k short right now. I can free that up pretty easily though.
@stick for Goose I’ve got him in at D9 with Waters at D8. I think he’ll play a bit and from what I’ve read is a real chance to earn a spot from round 1.
Mark – with Farmer, his chances will be enhanced if silly Jake King gets suspended.
He has done all that’s expected of him in the pre-season (Farmer that is) and is a handy MPP as well.
Does that mean he’ll be playing Round 1? I don’t know for sure obviously, but as a Tigers fan I would not be at all surprised if he gets a spot in the first 22 given that Richmond have had their eye on him for a couple of years, and recruited him specifically (with a recommendation from Brendan Lade I understand).
Farmer and Waters playing would definitely help the ruck combo situations you’d think, as there is a potential for savings there compared to Ladson, Hunt, Greenwood, etc.
And re MPP – I forgot Goddard was one as well. Means I have a MPP swap available if I keep Hodge in the mids.
Also Mark – interesting you mention a forward tag on Hurn – I reckon it would be less effective on him than on a guy like Heath Shaw.
Reason I say that is that Heath Shaw relies on his run out of defence to create for his team. Tags cut down the movement, reduce him to a stop and kick or stationary handball type.
Hurn’s weapon is not so much his run but his kicking. Putting a tag on him won’t entirely negate that kicking abillity, and may in fact have little effect if Hurn is still able to stop and pinpoint targets.
chris88 have not managed to see Farmer play due to the tigers early exit, is he pure lock down or does he have an upside as well?
Agree with you that heater will swing score wise, just wary of Hurn, if you can shut down his ball use, there aint much else to worry about in the eagles backline.
If Richmond were fair dinkum about progressing from the Wallace years, they would give decent players like Farmer a round one start and banish spuds like King and McMahon.
A Farmer/Waters/Maguire D7 to D9 combo is looking like it has some real merit.
Hurn is an extremely solid unit who moves well for his size, I don’t think he would be the easiest bloke to shut down.
Farmer is more a lock down type – probably an “old-style” negating back pocket type.
His job on Chapman in the NAB Challenge game was very encouraging, as Chapman was quiet (of course neither team was at full strength) and apparently his game against Collingwood on the weekend was good as well.
Richmond have a need for a lockdown back pocket as we have, for many years, been hurt by opposition small forwards and crumbers.
Farmer’s disposal isn’t bad from what I understand, but I don’t think he’ll be the guy running the ball out of defence – we’ll have others to try to do that.
And Ben – your first paragraph in the post above is 100% on the money. I hope we see less of the 2 aforementioned spuds this year, and more of guys like Farmer, Collins, Connors and even our rookies like Contin and perhaps Roberts or Gourdis.
Hurn- I’m following the news here- http://bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=680241 – But if there are any eyes on the ground over in WA that hear’s more- let us know!
@Ben – that is my D7-D9. I really like the look of it and will lock it now*
@Chriss88 Jake King scored alright in that role a couple of seasons back. Averaged 89, would be stoked if Farmer could too.
*until teams are named
chris88: Any chance of Roberts getting any game time this season? Looks abit like a Womaeamirri type who could provide a fair bit of spark up in the forward line. Would also be a decent downgrade target for the forwards.
Been hearing some good things about Gourdis aswell from various Richmond people, and how’s Astbury travelling? Did ok in the NAB cup game against Hawthorn.
Oh wait- just a re-read: McKinley was the one with the groin injury, not Hurn.
Ben – Roberts is a real chance to get games at some stage this year. Has impressed over the pre-season and Hardwick does seem to have a preference to find another crumber up forward to compliment little Robbie Nahas, who was a real bright spot last year.
Gourdis has been on our list as a rookie for a while, and this is make or break for him. That said, he was very good when he came on against Hawthorn (after Rance was banished early) and showed none of the so-called disposal issues he is reputed to have. One thing he is though is fit – he can run, present and get involved all day – in some ways he was recruited as a project player, an athlete. He is taking giant steps forward.
Astbury seems like a goer. Has a dip from what I’ve seen but also has some skills as well.
At the moment we have 2 rookie spots up for grabs. Polak seems to have one of them (though I don’t think he’s done enough to justify this) so the second will be, if filled, out of Gourdis, Roberts and Contin.
I would say if Polak is elevated, Gourdis won’t be. If Polak isn’t elevated, Gourdis almost certainly will be (which will be handy as he’s a defender) and then it might come down to a choice between Contin and Roberts.
thanks c88
Further good news on the rookie front –
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/afl/6909697/dockers-cats-game-switched/
“The Dockers have also opened extra spaces on their senior list by placing Antoni Grover, Dean Solomon, Tim Ruffles and Scott Thornton on the long-term injury list. They already had one position vacant because they had only one veteran on the list, so Fremantle can now upgrade five rookies.
“Matt de Boer, Michael Barlow, Alex Silvagni, Clancee Pearce and Jay van Berlo played for the Dockers during the NAB Cup despite being on the rookie list.”
Probably safe to say Barlow is a lock to be upgraded. Others except for Silvagni are not priced cheaply. Wonder if Silvagni will play – 83K backman.
Cheers for the info chris88
I think Silvagni would be the natural replacement for Grover out of the available rookies they’re planning to upgrade. Has scored relatively well (in the 50’s and 60’s) for a D9 option and should have accumulated a fair bit of value hopefully by the time Grover returns.
Chris88….if as expected Polak gets one, why wont Gourdis as well? Polak is (sadly) set for FF…but Gourdis is a defender no – cant he get the call up as well – aside from another fwd like Roberts…
I really don’t like having the thought of 4 freo players (3 playing, 1 bench) but yeah, Silvagni at D9 instead of Davis who doesn’t look like getting much game time is looking like a good option. He’s only $83k too which is nice.
Simonoz – the only reason I say that re Polak and Gourdis is that if we were to elevate 2 players it would be likely to be one tall and one small for team balance.
That’s obviously not gospel, and I could well be wrong, but I suspect that if Polak is elevated a guy like Roberts or Contin would have more chance of being elevated than Gourdis.
That said – Richmond isn’t exactly rollling in experience or talent right now given the exodus of players in the off-season, so Gourdis might well get a go anyway.
And JJ – I had Pav, Sands and Broughton for most of the year last year and they did OK. I reckon if you pick the right Freo players, its cool
Thanks Chriss88….have had my eye on Gourdis so am holding out hope
Yeah, I have too. I don’t have a D9 right now – have waters D7 and Maguire D8 but can’t afford a Farmer for D9 so I’m looking at Gourdis or (now) Silvagni to fill the hole there.
Hurn dominated the WC v Blues scratchy over here last saturday with no mention of injury – didnt go myself but reliable source. Broke out last year for sure, but looks set to continue if not improve a tad. Q is, is he better than the Shaw’s, Gilbert, Fisher, Dasher, Grimey, -Hodge? Ud be brave/stoopid to go without the Hodge yeah?
Silvagni has been quite unexpectedly impressive, solid kid and vgood chance of elevation and early games – until Groves recovers anyway. When Groves is back not sure if theres room for him with Broughton and Taz too.
jb – Every day I’ve got to convince the missus that she doesn’t want to trade Hodge out. That he’s not going to do what he did last year. And every day I talk her around… but my resolve is also growing week. It’ll be a huge point of difference *not* to have Hodgy!
Another damn Thursday game to start the year, and the lockout early.. Will have to cope with the massive “from” benches from important rookie sides like freo and adelaide and north that have the sunday games.
Just on Silvagni too – an average of 50 over the first 7 games of the season (assuming he is upgraded and plays of course) would put his value about $235K, which would garner you about $135K in a trade to another rookie if Grover then returns.
Handy money.
It’s not the end of the world Buzz, this year they should have the rolling lockout. So your Richmond and Carlton players will be locked in, but you can still swap out your other players until Friday nights game starts.
Top of the morning from Ol’d Blighty,
Looking forward to TS and Supercoach making my nights shifts bearable here again this year in London.
I haven’t seen too much being said about any North Melbourne players, so thought I would jot down a few of my thoughts based on what I have seen from a couple of NAB games and reading various message boards.
I think from a team perspective with Brad Scott at the helm we should hopefully play a bit more attacking this year, with lots of hard bodied stuff, so look for an increase in our tackle counts, hard ball gets and contested possessions. We seem to have a bit more run and carry about us and the numbers rotating through midfield have increased.
BACKS – SDT, Grima and McMahon will be consistent and selected when fit. I was surprised at how well Grima did last year (stoked actually as he is from my club back home in Tassie) and he and SDT should be around 85-90, solid but not spectacular. McMahon I think has the potential to be pushing a 100pt avg. The real gem back here, as many may know, could well be Levi Greenwood. Hard as nails, good pace and set to be used as our primary tagger and in our best 22 IMHO. He has a big tank by all repoarts and good skills so can hurt teams going the other way. A high tackle count could see him score well and become a handy upgrade when it is time to cash in a moo cow.
MIDS – Cunnington may be ready by round 1, but from a SC POV it would be great if he came in for his first game about round 6-7 right??? Big bodied and loves the hard stuff they say. Boomer has had a full preseason and may well be underpriced, genuine champion and with the load spread with Anthony in the mix he could be a gem this year. Prob better grabbing him in the FWD’s though. L.Anthony could be a little over priced for mine, but he racked up 30+ against the cats the other week apparently, ?2nd year blues. Bastinac could be one to watch, apparently silky clean but a bnit light on. Will probably feature at some stage during the year. Sammy Wright is another one to watch if he gets games regularly he will score well and make uou some moola. Dare I mention Daniel Wells….. full pre-season, revamp game plan…hmmm….I’m tempted but not stupid. As a Roo fan I hope he goes massive this year but there are plenty of singed fingers about thanks to Mr Wells.
RUC – Goldstein seems to be coming of age and it is possible that he may become equal to MacIntosh by season’s end. HMac will be solid again, perhaps hitting a 90-100pt avg if things go right for him. Petrie is set to play most the season as a fixed FWD at last, could be a good MPP option in the FWD line once back from suspension.
FWDS – The one to watch here is Ben “Milky” Warren, cheap at $260K and set to play as our second forward. In his 3rd year, has bulk up massively, moves very well for his size, hard at the contest and is a good shot. Ziebs may be a little overpriced for mine, but guarenteed games. A couple of smokey’s could be Cruize Garlett(?may be listed as a MID) and more so Matty Campbell who has had a full pre season after injury and worked hard on his tank to get included in midfield rotations so could pick up extra stats there.
The Majak Bus (Majak Daw) is an absolute beast build wise, but apparently 2-3 seasons away. Geez he is exciting though!
All in all exciting times for all North fans with what looks to be an exciting skillful young list.
Hope this helps???
SDT averaged 97 points over his last 9 games. Which has definitely gotten him on my radar.
Warren and Campbell are also there- much for the reasons you mentioned.
I like Campbell cause he’s got the slated “move to the midfield” box ticked, and he’s one of the only smokies that are still flying under the radar.
Oops…I take back the Campbell tip then….*puts more green leaves on the bon fire to get it smokey*
I’m having trouble choosing over Warren, Campbell, Ziebs and Harvey in my FWD line.
Funny thing about the Kanga’s is looking at the Ticker. They have a hard run for their forwards, but a bloody great run for their mids!
So you definitely want your North “Forwards” to be playing through the midfield!
Needs to look up this ticker me thinks…but is 0300am the best time to absorb this info…hmm…prob not the best time to dealing in blood porducts either but they’re paying me for that!
Campbell – thanks boys! Hang on…
His ‘08 average of 75 would be more likely this year, than his ‘09 avg of 56 on which he is priced. So def some 20 ppg $ increase potential there. Could he be F6/7 keeper?
In ‘08 he seemed to have large stddev in his scores, one week 100+/- the next 50+/-
Last year smoothed that out somewhat but lost those nice 100+ scores. Rounds 17-22 scored 55,37,59,64,64,87 = 61avg
Are we missing something? Is it only “cause he’s got the slated “move to the midfield” box ticked, and he’s one of the only smokies that are still flying under the radar”?
Cmon spit it out.
Don’t get me wrong JB, he’s a pretty massive punt.
Missed most of last year through injury I think and we also had pretty much a non functioning forward line.
This year North are looking to be more direct and physical. His intensity from what I saw in the Geelong NAB replay was very good. Seems to have built up a bit also. If he wants to play in the team he is going to have to not only move through the midfield but chase and tackle hard in the forward line. This with a more direct style of play to Petrie (or Hale in his abscence) should hopefully see a lot more crumbing goals from him.
i don’t think anyone would be looking at him if it wasn’t for a couple of mid 90s NAB scores but he’s been performing well, so he’s a bit of a firmer pick than just a speculative “move to midfield”.
Still have Ballantyne ahead of Campbell in the sub $300k F6/F7 forward stakes however with Ballantyne’s 1 to 2 week injury, Campbell’s stocks have risen a bit.
Ballantyne was definitely ahead of Campbell. Until the injury. However, I personally rate Campbell above Ziebell, Warren and Wright.
@chris88 Did you go to the Cats/Tigers game? Not sure that Farmer did the best job on Chapman because Chapman was talked up as one of our few best and scored 97 DT 108 SC Did he only play on him for a half or something?
Silvagni could be a good option considering he’s so cheap and should get games until Grover is back.
Benny – my understanding was that Farmer was on Chapman for a good portion of the day.
Thing is, Chapman kicked 3 goals late I believe, which boosted his score somewhat. Until that stage he had been fair, but not spectacular. Of course, it is only pre-season.
I noted too that Chapman was named among the Cats’ best that game, but I took it with a grain of salt given pre-season reports have named players among the best who hadn’t even taken part in the game in question (Bate from Melbourne was one example).
Even on the weekend an SEN reporter was asked how Dustin Martin was doing for the Tigers against Collingwood and said – oh yeah, a bit quiet, but OK. Thing was, he wasn’t playing.
A number of reports out of Tiger circles indicated they were happy with Farmer’s game, and quite a few fan forums (not the greatest of sources, but still a useful guide) have him penciled in as a Rd 1 starter ahead of a few other guys.
http://www.geelongcats.com.au/geelongnews/newsarticle/tabid/3933/newsid/89993/default.aspx
” Geelong’s veterans such as Corey Enright, Jimmy Bartel and Chapman had plenty of the ball in a good sign ahead of the home and away season. ”
Geelong: 2.1, 2.4, 2.8, 7.9 (51)
Richmond: 3.1, 6.4, 11.8, 15.12 (102)
Goals: Podsiadly 2, A Varcoe, Wojcinski, Chapman, Stringer, T Varcoe 1
Best: Enright, Lonergan, Bartel, Chapman, Scarlett, Kelly
Injuries: Allwright (knee), Laidler (ankle)
Crowd: Approx 5,000
I read another thing talking up Chapman too. Not sure where though.
Maybe Farmer played well on Chapman while he was forward and Chappy got most of his stats in the middle?
Farmer scored 51 in DT not sure about supercoach. Roberts scored 40dt and 90sc according to the info I’ve seen. Must have kicked a few goals to give the tigers the lead early