Knighty’s Footy Tips
By popular demand (or at least one), and because Walesy was nice enough to make a footy tipping competition (sponsored by Footy System Bet), Knighty’s footy tips are back for 2010 (I love referring to myself in the 3rd person). Round 1 is the hardest round to pick, so I normally just go for the obvious picks. There’s plenty of time to get creative with tips when you know how the teams will perform. Tips are once again in bold, and this year I am also including a highest SC scorer pick just for the Footy System Bet TooSerious Footy Tipping competition.
Thursday 25 March
Richmond V Carlton,
Top Scorer: M Kreuzer, Carlton, 136
Richmond is likely to miss Foley and Cousins in the engine room, but really who needs to analyse this game-its Richmond playing! Last time they played Chris Judd and Marc Murphy tore it up for the Blues, but with Judd missing and Murphy recovering from a hip problem, I’m tipping Kreuzer to be the highest scorer by demolishing Richmonds weak ruck division (which is on par with the rest of the team by the way).
Friday 26 March
Geelong V Essendon
Top Scorer: G Ablett, Geelong, 164
As much as I really really want Essendon to win, I can’t see them getting close to Geelong. Hey, I’d be happy coming within 10 goals of them given our record. Here’s some advice-unless you support Geelong, the Saints or the Bulldogs, tip with your head not your heart. Ablett to dominate as per usual with the only impediment to a really high score being the Cats dominating so much they all steal points off each other. In fantasy news, don’t be surprised if Hille is held quiet and Podsiadly is given lots of cheap goals in the square as the Cats act like they are on a training run. Prove me wrong, Bombers!
Saturday 27 March
Melbourne V Hawthorn
Top Scorer: Sam Mitchell, Hawthorn, (151)
Should be called Casey V Box Hill with all those injuries, but its still an easy round. Repeat it with me: NEVER PICK MELBOURNE. Enough said. Rookies to do OK, but not great. Oh, and any fit Melbourne players who aren’t picked may as well retire, because if you can’t get a game here there’s very little future for you (you hear me Simon Buckley?) Next tip.
Brisbane V WCE
Top Scorer: T Johnstone, Brisbane, (144).
Please don’t laugh. I seriously think Johnstone will have a good game. He got 156 last year and had a pretty good preseason. Don’t pick him, but I don’t think he’ll do that badly this game. Its at the Gabba, so you have to go with Brisbane.
*Sounds of retching* I just realised what I wrote up there…
Sydney V St Kilda
Top Scorer: N Dal Santo, Saints, (150)
History suggests this will be a close game. I agree with that, but I just see the Saints having that tiny bit of extra class that will get them over the line. A great match to have a flutter on with Footy System Bet.
Sunday 28 March
Port Adelaide V North Melbourne
Top Scorer: Dom Cassissi, Port Adelaide (130)
Port should win this courtesy of that great thing called home ground advantage. I can’t wait to see how ‘Alfred’ Hitchcock plays on the big stage, but apart form that I have no idea who will score well. I say Cassissi because he’s the first Power player who popped into my head, but Brent Harvey also traditionally starts strongly. Porbably be better off playing with your Sideways Radio cars instead of watching this match.
Bulldogs V Collingwood
Top Scorer: D Cross, Bulldogs (140)
Match of the round by a long way. Call your friends and family over (using TextOut SMS of course) to watch this one, because it should be a beauty. Last year these guys were both preliminary finalists, and we will see straight away how BBBBH (the extra B is is for BYOBB, and that extra B is a typo) competes against a quality team in the real season. Could be a preview of September action right here.
Fremantle V Adelaide
Top Scorer: Kurt Tippett (147)
On preseason form, injuries and home ground advantage I should tip Freo, but I can’t bring myself to do it. Stop Pavlich, stop Fremantle has always been the way, and Nathan Bock has Pavlova’s measure.
Captain Tips:
1. Gary Ablett
2. Daylight
3. Your next best midfielder, Goddard, Riewoldt. Just pick your best player, there’s no science this round.
Agree? Disagree? Sick of my blatant advertising of Footy System Bet and Sideways Radio cars? Why don’t you text someone who cares with TextOut SMS. Or leave a comment, thats good too.
DISCLAIMER: Knighty is in no way responsible for any failures in footy tipping competitions and loss of money/pride/other things because of this.
Haha good onya buddy! Gone for the nice safe tips this week, as i think a lot of people will as well. As you said, more important to stay with the pack and make a run for it later in the year.
Awesome job with the SC tips too, you went above and beyond this week.
Smokies for those who like a bit of a flutter and depending on the lines offered: pies over the dogs, swans over the saints, and perhaps even the dockers at home over the injured crows.
Will get your rightfully deserved offerings to you asap Sir Knighty
your first tip there is helping me avoid some radical team restructuring to fit clarke in over kreuzer
. but the team sheet (F: Setanta O’hAilpin, Matthew Kreuzer, Eddie Betts) has got me worried. WFT IS HE DOING IN THE FORWARDS??? Maybe the team sheets are completely wrong, which is what I’m hoping, but this is what Ratten said 12 short days ago about Kreuzer:
“That is the debate whether we play him forward or in the ruck and certainly Matty Lappin, as our forward line coach, wants him to play forward while our midfield coaches Mark Riley and Robert Harvey, are fighting like crazy to keep him in the midfield,” Ratten said post-match.
“But his performance today shows why he will play in the ruck.”
There’s no ambiguity there, he’s going to be in the ruck is what he’s saying. So why’s warnock there on the team sheet? Argh. And I can’t find any info elsewhere so I’m just venting here
.
What I think i’m going to do is keep kreuzer and just pencil in a round 3 double trade to correct the mistake if he does line up at FF where he might score vs richmond if carlton dominate, but where he’ll spud it up for most of the year. I’ll downgrade some underperformer, upgrade kreuzer and be all happy. but this is annoying.
Some hopeful news about Mitch Banner on afl.com.au this arvo. Was it Steve on here who first mentioned some hamstring tightness? Wonder whther he could share and more recent info?
JJ, they can say he’ll play in the ruck but if after a couple of rounds they aren’t kicking any goals they’ll chuck Kreuz up forward quick smart. They have a couple of backup ruckman who can’t play forward but Kreuz can a bit. That’s why Im steering clear of him’
Nice tips i think mine might follow suit.
Kruzer named in the fwds i agree is sickening for anyone considering him.
At the same time nice to see Hardwick providing options for the fantasy comunity, Nason named on the ground in the centre is music to my ear and also Roberts named on the field is grear.
However in reality it will be kruzer to play in the ruck and cousins to be shifted into the middle for roberts pretty quickly i would imagine.
Great post Knighty, I love your work!
On Krueze, I spose the same thing will be asked of Hille/Ryder, cause I’ve no doubt that one will be named in the forward line, but both with be played in the rucks. Kruezer adds a lot more to their midfield than he would in their forward line.
Particularly if he struggles up forward, they would be pretty stupid to leave him there.
If he succeeds up there, surely there could be some points in it for him. Still though, there are definite question marks…
2 x true prem rucks a must….how many times does it have to be said before the penny drops?
Just some friendly advice from a true blue bagger, the K-man is a gun up forward, he’s our best pack marker & kicker for goal, in this post-Fev era. Since he was 18, the K-boy could get his hands on the ball, no matter how big the pack was, he just wasn’t strong enough to squeeze the air out of it, but after 3 pre-seasons he can now & has become the K-MAN!!!
Smokies: Sydney, WCE (not tipping them, but: similar climates WA & QLD & the eagles always do well up there, even when Brissy dominated) & Freo.
Jase,
Banner is ok – he will be ready to go.
Great news about Banner.
But now its Banner vs Bastinac for M9. Always preferred Banner, but the hamstring tightness worried me. Thoughts?
Missed the footy show last night but heard they made ‘mock’ teams for each game. Any ideas if this can be found anywhere, or does anyone remember some of it?
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to the ‘mock’ teams on the Footy show. Barlow was missing from Freo.
Cheers Steve – really grateful to you for providing us your insights. Nick, have been pondering the exact same dilemma, but think based on Steve’s assessment I will go back to Plan A (banner)