With the 2012 season now officially over, the betting agencies were very quick to frame the market for the 2013 season. The ORFFA is no different to the AFL and I have been able to get my hands on the early odds for next year. 4.00 - Foul Bay 6.00 - Birdsville 6.50 - Iron Knob 8.00 - Cradle Mountain, Marble Bar, Larrakin Lagoon 11.00 - Darraweit 12.50 - Mount Beauty, Gundagai 14.00 - Charlie's Opening, Powlett Plains 15.00 - Venus Bay 16.00 - Wagga Wagga 17.00 - Gariwerd 19.00 - Waikikamoocow 21.00 - Far Kew 22.00 - Nunawading 25.00 - Whitsundays
I think the money that will be plonked on Foul Bay at those odds will bring them in in a hurry. I'll be betting on them - easy money. I also think the odds for Gariwerd are quite generous, with all the infighting at the club since the season closed, it's hard to know how the players will react.
Venus Bay are also extremely good value after they raped and plundered a few other lists during the trade period. I think they could be big movers this next season.
Foul Bay a worthy and justified favourite. Given they went undefeated you could argue they may even be slight overs at $4. My beloved Birdsville might be unders @ $6 though. Hard to to know how to rate the Battlers chances given their injury troubles this year. The bookies clearly taking no chances though!
Don't worry Chels, I feel very uncomfortable being the premiership favourite, but as the defending champions and the "Director of Winning" I didn't think the league would let me get away with flying under the radar. There has been a bit of talk (some of which coming from the club itself) about the 'juicy' odds of $15.00 for Venus Bay. They did do quite well in some of their trades in the off season and look to be a vastly different team to last season, but they are one injury away from disaster in the backline and their forward line is in similarly dire shape IMO. They have a lot of depth in the mids and some good young talent though. The $15.oo seems fair. The big improvers for mine are Marble Bar. Larrakin Lagoon will benefit greatly from the relocation and promise of fielding a team each week. Iron Knob will be at the pointy end once again and have the 'Gary' factor each week and Birdsville has a very balanced, underrated squad. The smokies for mine are Mount Beauty. Have a very talented and very young core that will hold them in good stead for 2014-15. If they hadn't been fleeced by Venus Bay in what will be now known as the "Josh Drummond deal", they would be around the top line of betting.
Venus Bay odd's are suprising but I don't mind really, like Bandit I am happy to go under the radar. Ah... the Josh Drummond deal...
Updated odds in lieu of changed player positions as well as AFL club retirements and delistments, just in time for the next trade period. 4.00 Foul Bay 6.00 Iron Knob 7.00 Cradle Mountain 8.00 Birdsville 9.50 Marble Bar 10.50 Larrakin Lagoon, Wagga Wagga 11.50 Venus Bay 12.00 Gariwerd, Darraweit 13.50 Charlie's Opening 14.50 Powlett Plains,Far Kew, Gundagai 15.00 Mount Beauty 18.00 Waikikamoocow 18.50 Nunawading 20.00 Whitsundays
Love your work Chief. Think the odds on the Waikiks are a bit skinny - probably won't have enough players to enter a whole team each week. If I can find the numbers there will be too many untired youngsters and third chance reprobates afield. Fifties would be about right me thinks.
$6 out to $8 for the Battlers from Birdsville? Who knew the loss of Slammin' Sammy Iles andClint 'CreakyKnees' Bartram would be considered so significant? ;-) We were probably a bit skinny at $6, so that's probably fair enough. Nonetheless, can I get fixed odds at the $8? If so, then as Neil Evans likes to say, 'in in in in in in'.
Sam Iles was for mine, the most staggering delistment of the off season. That may have cost you 0.50, the improvement of Cradle Mountain due to some favourable positional changes and your own comment about how you thought $6.00 was 'unders' all factored in. I still think you have one of the better lists going around
Look like a fairassessmentto mechief, personally I would have your mob at 3/1 and swap Venus Bay & Marble Bar around. One thing that stands out to me is the importance of the draft to some teams, will be interesting to see a new market done just prior to round one when the draft has been done and some of those rookies have been let loose..
Thank you Chief. There's nothing we like better than being the underdogs./Portals/0/User%20Images/wooden%20spoon.jpg
ChiefRussell wrote: Sam Iles was for mine, the most staggering delistment of the off season. All jokes aside Chief, I agree completely. I know SC points are not an AFL coach's measure of performance, but they are for us here in ORFFA-land and I had far better spuds than that ready to go!! Damn you Guy McKenna......you owe me a 90+ppg Mid.
Looking at the trimmed down squads Cradle Mountain is starting to look well over at $6,scarygood list with a whole bunch of upside youngsters
Updated odds taking into account delistings and the latest trade period.... 3.00 Foul Bay (defending champs, deserve to start favourite) 5.00 Iron Knob (clearly the second best side last year, very quiet trade period and to be expected delistings) 6.00 Cradle Mountain (quiet trade period, great forward line, backline quality apart from Heppell the only real issue) 7.00 Birdsville (Why did Sam Iles get delisted by Gold Coast again?) 9.50 Marble Bar (Got a lot of points on the field into the side since last year, early draft pick as well) 11.00 Wagga Wagga (Best backline in the comp, young and deep developing midfield, needs quality in the front half) 11.00 Larrakin Lagoon (Solid overall team for the newly relocated side, early draft pick as well) 12.50 Venus Bay (very busy offseason, lots of moves improved the team...but still kept Dawson and Tynan on the list ahead of others...interesting) 12.50 Darraweit (very busy late, stockpiled some young talent. Hope Captain Mullet doesn't get injured) 13.50 Gariwerd (Solid side.Injury clouds in the forward line the main concern) 14.50 Charlie's Opening (Needs a bit more depth in the midfield, but doesn't have a pick until 30. Will there be any left?) 14.50 Far Kew (Some good top end talent, but lacking some depth. Hopefully the coach isn't MIA either) 15.00 Gundagai (Needs one more year out of a powerful but ageing midfield. Trades have robbed forward line of some depth and quality) 16.00 Mount Beauty (Has the best talent under 24 of any side. Will be a league power soon. Maybe not this year though) 17.50 Waikikamoocow (Had a really good off season. Added Fyfe, Crameri and Wright to the mix. Would just like a bit more in the back half. Should probably be a bit shorter) 18.50 Nunawading (Relying on Hudson and Hampson to get games every week in order to field a competitive team. NEEDS DANIHER AND NEEDS HIM TO PLAY ROUND 1) 20.50 Powlett Plains (Needs to find some youth and more midfield power) 24.00 Whitsundays (Was the delisting of Carlisle over Alex Silvagni a sign that Terry is really worried that Essendon won't exist? Has to be the only explanation)