2014 Premiership Odds

Have received a couple of calls about the 2014 Premiership Odds and while I am enjoying my last bit of holidays before work starts up, I thought I would post some preliminary odds prior to the trade and draft periods being completed. Thought I would also take a look back at how badly this bookie went with it all last year. Team: Iron Knob 2014 Odds: 2.50 (fav.) Rationale: Were clearly the best team last year, but had their worst game when they could least afford to in the first week of the finals. Looked unbeatable prior to that. Some will claim that the bookie is trying to deflect attention, but go and look at last year's end of Home and Away season ladder and points for. 2013 Odds:5.00 (2nd) 2013 Position: 1st after H&A, 5th after finals How did I go? Got it pretty much correct (was a no-brainer) Team:Foul Bay 2014 Odds:3.00 Rationale:Don't quite have the Best 15 firepower of Iron Knob, but might have slightly better depth in the forwards and ready to play mids. Just got to nail team selections. 2013 Odds:3.00 (1st) 2013 Position:3rd after H&A, 1st after finals How did I go?Finals series saved some egg on the face. Team:Mount Beauty 2014 Odds:5.00 Rationale:Said last year that they had the best young talent on their list. They are now ready to go. Coach Bama has clearly realised this, adding established 100+ scorers in Boyd and NRoo to the lineup for next to nothing. The big movers in the premiership race. Easily the best forward line and rivaling Iron Knob and Cradle Mountain for best mids. Defence only thing stopping me from guaranteeing them a top 4 finish at the very, very least. 2013 Odds:14.50 (12th) 2013 Position:11th How did I go?Bookies will take that result. Team:Waikikamoocow 2014 Odds: 8.50 Rationale: While I have probably not learnt from last year's odds, I am just a bit worried about depth outside of top 15. Brad Crouch is currently M4 by my estimation and while he is a jet, they are probably a couple of injuries away in the mids or backs from some pain. Their best 15 is very ominous and very young, meaning they will be around for a long while. 2013 Odds:15.50 (eq.13th) 2013 Position:2nd after H&A, 6th after finals How did I go?Butchered this one badly. Apologies Chels... Team:Darraweit Guim 2014 Odds:10.00 Rationale:Brilliant finals run nearly had them snatching the premiership from 7th. Arguably the best backline in the ORFFA and second best ruck combo behind Iron Knob when fit. Solid forward line too. Did give up some firepower in the mids to lure NicNat though and that is what stops them being at the very pointy end of betting. 2013 Odds:12.00 (7th) 2013 Position:7th after H&A, 2nd after finals How did I go?Had it right, then the finals happened... Team:Birdsville 2014 Odds:12.00 Rationale: Solid team, that had a solid season last year (missed out on a GF by 4 points) and should do the same again this year. Missing the big name talent, but very even across the board meaning that they won't necessarily have the drop offs of some of their rivals. 2013 Odds:8.00 (4th) 2013 Position:5th after H&A, 3rd after finals How did I go?Another success. Team:Wagga Wagga 2014 Odds:13.00 Rationale: Pushed the premiers in Round 1 of the finals and have added Franklin and Watson to the mix. They did however lose Beams (who will go large) and Goddard. Forward line after Franklin isn't quite top shelf and wouldn't want injuries to their starting mids. Should make finals. 2013 Odds:12.50 (eq. 8th) 2013 Position:8th after H&A, 8th after finals How did I go?Tick. Team:Venus Bay 2014 Odds:15.50 Rationale:Like the addition of Beams and got some handy positioning help with Parker moving to the forward line. Really good 'best 11', just lacking a few pieces. Pick 3 will provide one of them. 2013 Odds:12.50 (eq. 8th) 2013 Position:10th (missed on 8th by points for) How did I go?I'll take it. Team:Charlie's Opening 2014 Odds:15.50 Rationale: Like the Cows, I have probably underrated this mob a bit (although not as much as last year). I very much see them in contention for the top 8, but for mine the injury and late start to Andrew Swallow's year is a big deal. It hurt them in the first week of the finals and I think it will hurt them early in 2014 before they come home with a wet sail. I don't really expect Dan Jackson to do what he did last year. In any case, improvement will come from other areas. 2013 Odds:15.50 (eq.13th) 2013 Position:4th after H&A, 7th after finals How did I go? Got this one quite a bit wrong. Team:Gariwerd 2014 Odds:16.00 Rationale:Taylor Walker starting late is a bit of a blow (as it was to their 2013 season in general). They do have four decent(while sometimes frustrating) options to play. Zac Smith as the lone, injured ruckman is the big one here though. Might want to get in on the Tom Nicholls auction... 2013 Odds:13.50 (11th) 2013 Position:9th (missed out on 8th by points for) How did I go? In the ballpark Team:Whitsundays 2014 Odds:19.00 Rationale:Lobbe and Black did a lot more on 2013 than I expected so I will eat some humble pie on that one. Steven Motlop is a jet, but a jet with an injury riddled pre-season.Lots of youngsters that are building, but are not quite there yet. 2013 Odds:22.50 (18th) 2013 Position:13th How did I go? Too harsh.Some youngsters better than I thought. See above for humble pie eaten. Odds this year a reflection. Team:Marble Bar 2014 Odds:19.00 Rationale: Got some very good young kids and access to more in the draft. A lot do play for bottom of the ladder teams which I obviously didn't factor in enough last season. In my defence, injuries did bite them more than most last year, but probably highlighted gaps in depth with the kids still a year or two away. 2013 Odds:10.50 (5th) 2013 Position:17th How did I go? Swap them and the Cows around and I had it right....Equal biggest miss of 2013. Team: Cradle Mountain 2014 Odds:19.50 Rationale:Positioning gods well and truly got them. Their best forward (Stevie J) is a mid only and their best defender (Heppell) is too.They were already pretty potent in the mids and while they have the equal best (with Iron Knob) midfield squad in the game, you can only play at most 6 and they have 7. And very few forwards (Jude Bolton retired too). And no reliable ruckman. Shame really, I like the players in this team. It's all just unbalanced. Could be big movers if they can get stuff done in the trade and draft period. 2013 Odds:6.50 (3rd) 2013 Position:12th. No ruckman for most of the year killed them. How did I go?No good.
Team:Larrakin Lagoon 2014 Odds:21.00 Rationale: NicNat and pick 3 are big losses for now and, in particular, the future. The mids look solid on paper and will provide most of the scoring power. 2013 Odds:11.00 (6th) 2013 Position:16th (points for had them a more respectable 12th) How did I go?They were possibly the unluckiest team last year (save for Iron Knob's finals series). Despite this, I still got them very wrong. NicNat's injury hurt...alot. Team:Powlett Plains 2014 Odds:21.00 Rationale: Finished up in the top 4 after finals, then coach Raptor went on what seemingly looked like a fire sale to rebuild. There is a longer game clearly in place here, but it will mean some short term pain and a drop from the heights of last year. 2013 Odds:17.50 (17th) 2013 Position:6th after H&A, 4th after finals How did I go?Got this one very wrong as well. Team:Gundagai 2014 Odds:21.50 Rationale:Couldn't get a team on the park last year. Mid season draft fixed it a bit and I expect the PSD to do the same. A big year from Sandi and their aging mids should help, but forward line needs some Boyd or Hogan help. But will the lure of Jack Martin be too great? 2013 Odds:16.00 (eq. 15th) 2013 Position:18th How did I go?Didn't expect all the injuries, but pretty close none the less.

Team:Lovely Banks 2014 Odds:22.00 Rationale: Still trying to fix the mess left by the previous ownership so this one is going to take some time. Put some encouraging performances together during a 3 or 4 week patch, but still a couple of quality players short in each line. 2013 Odds:12.50 (eq 8th) 2013 Position:15th How did I go?Underestimated the rebuilding job that needed to take place here.

Team:Nunawading 2014 Odds:24.50 Rationale: Simpson and Broadbent moving to defence makes the backline look better. They do have 12 defenders now though which is a worry. Means that they have basically no forward line/ruck division and very little midfield depth. 2013 Odds:16.00 (eq.15th) 2013 Position:14th (17th on points for) How did I go?Right around the mark. So, was probably batting at about 60% last year. Hopefully I have learned a bit more about each side with some more exposed form on the board. Will endeavour to make some small revisions (time permitting) after the draft period has concluded. At the very least it will give people something to read and comment on while waiting for the trade emails to flow through. Good luck everyone in 2014.

 

Love your work amigo - no apology needed Chief; you know the flightless birds relish being underdogs. So just wind the odds out to 10:1 and you should get a little money from the winegrowers and cockies. The exchange rate helps a bit as well!

 

As one who bets on value I would puntCharlie's Opening at those odds - BTW, I reckon around $10 is the mark. For what its worth I think you have the boys from Iron Knob too short for a season long comp. Reckon they will win, just saying about the odds. Just a thought, I would love to see response of who each coach would back (to win and for value) if they could not back their own team.

 

chels wrote:
Just a thought, I would love to see response of who each coach would back (to win and for value) if they could not back their own team. I wouldn't back my team to win anyway. Maybe to make the 8? 'Solid' is an apt description for the Battlers. Probably competitive enough to make the 8, but not enough firepower to consistently trouble the top sides at the moment. Others look to have more improvement in them as well. If Mt Beauty were a little longer I'd have a bet on them. Outside of that, I'd have a little bit on an improving [span style='text-decoration: line-through;]Port Adelaide Whitsunday team to make the 8 this year.

 

ODDS UPDATE (after Goddard Trade) 7.00 DARRAWEIT GUIM 25.00 POWLETT PLAINS

 

ODDS UPDATE AFTER TRADE PERIOD AND PRE-SEASON DRAFT:
1.30 Iron Knob 3.00 Foul Bay 4.50 Mount Beauty 7.50 Waikiki, Darraweit 11.00 Birdsville 13.00 Wagga Wagga 14.50 Charlie's Opening 15.50 Venus Bay 18.00 Whitsunday 19.00 Gariwerd, Nunawading 19.50 Cradle Mountain 20.00 Gundagai 21.00 Marble Bar 21.50 Larrakin Lagoon 22.50 Lovely Banks 31.50 Powlett Plains

 

top class work Chief, any revisions after round 1? Foul Bay exceeded expectations?

 

chels wrote:
top class work Chief, any revisions after round 1? Foul Bay exceeded expectations? Bit too early in the season for any major revisions. Probably have the Lilacs a bit too long in the odds, maybe should be around the 18.50 mark. Mount Beauty perhaps started a bit slowly but I'm comfortable with them being so short. They get Rioli back, I'm very nervous about playing them this week. Everything went right for me last week, not sure lightning can strike twice in a row. Would feel a bit more comfortable with Judd, Ibbotson and Scotland running around.

 

TerryinBangkok wrote:
Whitsundays? Whitsundays? Never bet with your heart or a lobster pie. Chief has got it right (well, at least 60%). I expect Larrikin to have better luck in the close ones this year and Mt. Beauty to climb. A lot of coaches won't be underestimating flightless birds this year. The dog on the tucker box might offer a growl or two. Overall, I see the disparity between teams diminishing to a noticeable degree in 2014. That was my expectation too TiB. Unfortunately, I was lead to believe that rubbing a Tuatara til it's skin falls off was meant to bring much good luck. This appears to be far from the truth (apologies to ur living fossil chels, they're like sponges aren't they?) (It is possible that my team selection may have played a minor role in my demise also)