2015 ORFFA Premiership Odds

Back by unpopular demand is the latest instalment of the premiership odds brought to you by ChiefBet. 1.50 - Iron Knob The premiers rightly deserve favouritism again. This mob just goes from strength to strength. Picked up Dane Swan and a draft pick for nothing and then had the fantasy pig pick up forward status. Beefed up the forward line further with the addition of Robbie Gray so it doesn't even matter that they have lost Darling for half a year. Sure, the injury to Hanley hurts a bit more, but he was mid only this year and the Knob has the best midfield going round so they can easily cover him. Jimbowan might be concerned with his backline, but I wouldn't be...Ricky Henderson looks to be in favour with Walsh and will cover Hanley's loss to the midfield. I can't see them losing this year.
5.00 Waikickamoocow Nathan Fyfe has replaced Gary Ablett as the player that you would most want to build a fantasy side around. Best ruck division going round. McGovern at pick 4 will plug any hole that Graeme wants him to. Best players on the team still have their best footy in front of them. Medium term injuries to Harwood and Crouch the only concerns. Should be rolling from the mid point of the season onwards.
7.00 Foul Bay The two time champs might have one more run in them with the likes of Pavlich, Judd, Bartel, Kelly and the newly acquired Montagna running around before the inevitable rebuild in 2016. Losing Libba is a massive blow and niggles to Montagna and Vince mean that the midfield depth will be significantly tested. Can't afford any more injuries (that's what you get with an ageing list I suppose), but with Selwood and Dangerfield at the helm, it should be enough for a top 5 finish.
7.00 Venus Bay Really like the pre-season moves from the young man. While not as prolific in season's past, maybe less is more for Fitzy. Parlayed his strength in the midfield to boost his depth at either end of the ground and still managed to maintain strength in the mids and got younger in the process. Drafted astutely with selections that are ready to play now. Should be one of the big movers in 2015.
7.00 Darraweit Guim I'm not sure who is even on this team any more, and by the time I finish writing this, the team will probably be different again such is Chris' penchant for the trade (I feel it has gone beyond Fitzy like proportions). Despite all the moves, two things that stand out in this list is depth and positional flexibility. While the coach might protest, I think that this is the list that injuries will affect the least, such is the flexibility of the squad. That will definitely hold it in good stead and keep the team well entrenched in the top 4.
10.00 Mount Beauty I keep overrating the list and it keeps disappointing me, but I am going to stick with them for one more year. I love the forward line, I love the midfield and strides are continuing to be made in the backline with the recruitment of McKenzie and the expected rise of Kolodjashnij. Two defenders away from being the 2nd best side in the comp. A Leuenberger injury away from being out of the finals.
11.00 Gariwerd Another busy pre-season participant. Loved what Ant has done over the pre-season. Used his strength in the forward line to bolster other areas and love the selections of Miller and Newton who will be two of the most prolific draftees this year IMO. Acquired Mackie on the cheap and Sam Fisher was worth the punt for a year. Might need one more year for some of his mids to develop as I reckon he might be 1 or 2 short in 2015.
11.00 Cradle Mountain Managed to draft a beauty in Jack Steele and while long in the tooth, was able to acquire Petrie and Goodes to provide a short term fix to the forward line, giving time for the likes of Boyd and Kennedy to develop. Has six genuine 90+ midfielders, the top 4 of which are all capable of averaging between 110 - 120. That will be too good for a lot of teams, despite the weak ruck division.
12.00 Wagga Wagga Probably very stiff that the runners up are this low. While Lenny has used his strength in the backline to improve his forward line significantly, he will now need to select his backline carefully each week, needing to correctly select the right two defenders out of about five to fill the D3 and D4 spots. The cloud over Jobe Watson looms large, and there are still question marks over whether Scott Lycett can carry Wagga's ruck division with the loss of Dean Cox.
12.00 Larrakin Lagoon Another one of the big movers in the off-season, loved all the moves and draft selections by Grav. The Goldstein trade was one that I would have made in a heartbeat and the acquisitions of Goddard, Gibson and Mitchell mean more points on the field. Harry O is due for a breakout and Scooter Selwood should bounce back. Is probably a defender and a forward short. Bookies are still bitter about him snatching Ceglar from under their noses.
12.00 Whitsundays Sloane, Wines, Boak, Barlow. This alone has them challenging for the finals. Throw Lobbe into the ruck, the Hawthorn connection of Birchall and Suckling into defence and JJK, Motlop, the emerging Hrovat into attack and the Warriors are not far away from having an ominous best 15. The depth players still need some time to develop though.
16.00 Birdsville After being there or therebouts for the first three seasons, the Battlers might be in a bit of no-mans land. Not quite strong enough to challenge for the flag, but too good to get early draft selections and speed up the re-build. Loved the astute selections of Bewick and Turner late in the draft. Will be interesting to see the direction from JC moving forward.
16.00 Powlett Plains The youth rebuild of 2014 hasn't seemed to last that long with the additions of Mundy, Douglas, Sandilands and Goodes to the club over the off season. These acquisitions, plus the addition of Isaac Smith definitely mean more points on the field and movement out of the cellar for the Packers. Might not quite be enough to get them into the eight, but should have them close enough.
19.00 Charlie's Opening The plan has been clear from Bandit this pre-season and that is to re-build with youth around the 'Bont'. It is a solid plan and one that saw him trade out the likes of Mackie and Petrie for draft picks enabling him to go down the youth route with Pickett, Duggan, Lamb and Lonie who all figure to be guns in a few years time. Unfortunately that means that Charlie's Opening might be closed for a couple of years yet. 19.00 Nunawading The donut that is Shaun Hampson looms large over the Nuffers for another season. Boy, would Stefan Martin made a difference to this side. Unfortunately he went one pick too early. I don't think that JPK and Jaeger can save them.
21.00 Marble Bar Youngest list in the comp. The talent is clearly there. Connor Blakely is up there with Touk Miller (and of course Heeney and Petracca) as one of my favourite players in the draft. Lachie Weller is not far behind, even though I can't see Rossy playing him at all this year. This team will be fun to coach, but are still about three years away.
22.00 Lovely Banks Jen is clearly going down the youth path which is the sensible option given the list that she inherited. Can't fault the draft selections at all, even though Moore and Wright are clearly not going to have an impact in 2015. Heeney and Saad will make up for that. Heeney was clearly the right call at pick 1. Think that Dane Swan could and should have netted more than he did though. The haul received was more worthy of giving up Scott Thompson.
27.00 Gundagai The midfield and forward lines are clearly coming along well. Adding Brayshaw and Cockatoo to Rockliff and Neale is ominous in 2017. Adams, Stringer, Billings and Martin is a forward line to look forward to in 2017 also. Just can't see more than two defenders on the list playing in the early part of the season in 2015. That is a BIG problem for the time being.

Prepare the bookie bashing!!!!

 

Top work CR - but then we have come to expect that of you. With diary prices down our supporters' wallets are not as fat they used to be so we need to recommend some astute betting for our fans. 1. Lay the cows at $5, the Knob is correctly a short priced favourite. 2. Back the Chooks for a top two place - $7 seems very friendly for your own team. I am not sure such modesty is a trait shared with your brother.

 

Nice work CR. No need to rub the salt in re Martin. I'm still crying in my beer. Taking the boys to the titty bars in King Street tonight as a practice session for mad Monday. You can never get enough practice.

 

Great work CR. Another middle of the road prediction for the Lefties should see us grossly under-achieve yet again

 

Nah, no complaints here, CR. No man's land are the exact words I've used myself. Couldn't make up my mind which way to go at the end of last season - as evidenced by my changing trade strategy since then. I tried pretty hard to re-do my list a bit during the pre-draft trade period but it wasn't to be. Looking like it will be a long and gradual list regeneration rather than a scorched earth rebuild. The start of the season will be interesting. A few Battlers are under scrutiny from now until the MSD.

 

'<em style='color: #444444; background: #fcfcfc;]McGovern at pick 4 will plug any hole that Graeme wants him to.' Prophetic CR, very pleased with the Gov's debut for the franchise.

 

Chief Bet Odds at the Mid-season Break I haven't included teams with three wins or less as it is going to be difficult for these sides to see finals action. Defending champs Iron Knob have got through the worst of their problems (they are lurking like the Hawks in the real stuff) so still deserve favouritism although the young upstarts from Venus Bay should win the minor premiership and meet them in the grand final if they choose their opponents correctly. Perennial top-4 teams Waikiki and Darraweit are on the next line of betting, the Cows getting the edge due to the Fyfe factor. Birdsville are lurking, led by Tommy Mac, but face a tougher draw in the second half of the year. Charlie's Opening have been led brilliantly by the Bont and the Blitz and should roll on to the finals where they will be a tough matchup for whoever faces them in Round 1. The Chooks are playing with 14 for the rest of the year and are one more injury or Yarran brain fade away from playing with 13 for the rest of the year. Should probably be longer odds, but they could potentially hold on to a finals spot by virtue of having played most of the big guns early. Odds on for them to be smashed in week 1 of the finals if they get there. Powlett Plains and Wagga probably a little bit long in the odds. No Prestia hurts Wagga massively (who still have some forward line issues excluding Buddy), while the Packers have a very good best 15, but might be an injury or two away from disaster. Despite being two games out of the finals I really like Larrakin Lagoon if they can get themselves into the finals from two games back. They are scoring impressively and have pushed the top sides this year. With a bit of luck in the draw and some results falling their way, they could sneak into the eighth spot and give someone a scare. 1.50 - Iron Knob 3.50 - Venus Bay 7.00 - Waikickamoocow 8.00 - Darraweit 10.00 - Birdsville 12.00 - Charlie's Opening, Foul Bay 13.00 - Powlett Plains, Larrakin Lagoon 15.00 - Wagga Wagga 36.00 - Gariwerd 41.00 - Cradle Mountain, Nunawading

 

Thanks for the nod CR. Reckon I will need to win every game from here, with the Blimps and Cows likely to sour that feat.

 

I think you need to wind out the quote on the Cows a little chief. Clearly Nat Fyfe is a reason why we might well end up top 4 but in the finals he might be a liability. Round 23 sees Freo away to Port Adelaide and if Freo are clear at the top of the ladder I cannot see Ross Lyon asking many of his better players to travel. Especially if Charlie is wrapped up for Nat (if it is not already). Please do not interpret this as 'Nat Fyfe is on the trading block' - far from it. Without Nat we would be a soft target for a strong top side like the Vultures or the Knob, or even your mob. Another top effort CR - this series is one of the real highlights of ORFFA life.