2019 Premiership Odds

Discussion in 'ORFFA' started by ChiefRussell, Mar 16, 2019 at 1:20 AM.

  1. ChiefRussell

    ChiefRussell Well-Known Member

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    Hi all,

    ChiefBet is back at it again for season 2019. Get commenting everyone!!!.

    2.00 Venus Bay
    Losing Docherty again stings, but I still think the midfield is chock full of talent, they have two strong rucks and they actually have the depth to cover Doc somewhat. They were the best side last year in the H & A too.

    4.00 Marble Bar
    The Premiers got stronger over the off season. Their best 15 is on par with Venus Bay, I just think players 15-20 are a tad behind the Vultures

    4.00 Gundagai Grasshoppers
    The big movers from last season. Wow, what a midfield. It was imposing before getting Oliver. I actually think the Hoppers have 3 of the top 5 players in the competition this year. Their best 15 is the strongest on paper, I just worry about their depth at either end of the ground compared to Venus Bay and Marble Bar

    6.00 Cradle Mountain Devils
    Another team with a deep midfield, and they have now built a solid front and back half to go with it. They are clearly in the premiership window now. Astute drafting too, taking all the players Foul Bay had their eye on.

    7.00 Waikickamoocow
    Would have probably up in the top 2 or 3 of betting if it weren't for the injury to Tom Mitchell. If they can get Crouch and Hall back to their scoring best, they still might have enough fire power to trouble the top couple with that wicked young forward line they possess and rock solid defence.

    8.00 Foul Bay Chooks
    Robbing Peter to pay Paul this year. CR has decided to throw all his midfielders into the forward line, giving him some weapons up there, but leaving him probably a midfielder or two short. The defence is even without being spectacular - but has started the year a bit underdone. Here's hoping their spiritual leader Libba can return to near his best.

    10.00 Gariwerd Cockatoos
    This team is built for the now with, if I'm not mistaken, the oldest list in the competition. Plenty of experience and depth across all lines, I just think they might lack the second really big gun after Matt Crouch in the midfield to trouble the top couple of sides.

    16.00 Iron Knob
    Losing Roberton is heartbreaking (no pun intended) for a team already a bit thin in defence. Apart from Macrae, their best players are basically 30+ years old. It should be enough to hold on to a spot in the eight, but the challengers are coming. At least Rhys Stanley looks like he might be a viable ruck option.

    20.00 Birdsville Battlers and Lovely Banks Lilacs
    The Battlers might have the second best crop of under 25s in the comp after the Hoppers, but they are probably a midfielder or two and some class forward of centre short. The Lilacs have been building their team well over the last four seasons and this could be the year that they really challenge for their first finals appearance. Solid without being spectacular across all lines, the top sides can't afford to be off their game against the Lovelies this season.

    22.00 Wagga Wagga and Mount Beauty
    Wagga could be my sleeper pick for the eight. While I don't know that I would have traded the crown jewel of Oliver for anyone not named Grundy or Gawn, Lenny must have been confident that his brigade of young midfielders was ready to take the next step up. I'm just not sure that 50c + 20c + 10c = $1.00. ChiefBet is always too big a fan of Mount Beauty, but not this year. I don't know how the hell they finished where they did with names like Gawn, Martin, Sidebottom and Cotchin and now they get Sam Walsh (and Zak Butters) to add to the mix. But I've finally worked them out. Their forward line is Christian Petracca...and that's it. Can't win playing 15 against 12.

    25.00 Nowhere Else and Whitsundays
    Teams with similar profiles. Good depth across the park, particularly forward of centre. Both sides missing the out and out stars in the midfield (Coniglio is the exception to this). The Wanderers have three second string ruckman so could be playing half a man short. The Warriors have big Dawson who might find himself out of favour once Mummy returns and Rory Lobb who while he gives the side a heartbeat, might find himself forward more than coach Terry would like.

    30.00 Charlie's Opening
    Have committed to the rebuild and I am really starting to like some of the talent they have assembled. I think they have 1/2 to 2/3 of a quality starting side at the moment so they aren't too far away.

    35.00 Nareewillock
    Let's be honest. Coach Tassie Hawk inherited a train wreck that had been neglected for far too long and has done a remarkable job of turning over the list in such a short time. If he had a ruckman that was going to play this season, then the odds would be shorter. He can't even rely on Shaun Grigg like the Tigers sometimes do, as he is injured too. Without Nic Nat, his best player is still JPK and while he is one of my faves, his best looks to be behind him. Tommy Mac is one of my other faves and a good player to build a forward line around (even if I like his scoring better as a defender), but there are starting to be signs of life.

    40.00 Wineglass Bay
    I just think they lack a lot of firepower in the midfield, the place where most of the scoring takes place. Losing their two best scorers does that to a side. It will be good to see the big Mummy back, even though it doesn't feel right to not have him in the Chooks colours.

    45.00 Larrakin Lagoon
    I know the odds are harsher than they have ever been, but I actually think that this is the best that the side has looked since their back to back premierships. The midfield is finally starting to take some shape led by Angus Brayshaw. Izak Rankine's injury does make the forward line cupboard look a bit bare and they probably aren't going anywhere in a hurry until they get a ruckman who is better than NEAFL quality.
     
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  2. TerryinBangkok

    TerryinBangkok Moderator Staff Member

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    Wow. Some harsh assessments. Good but.
     
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  3. anthak

    anthak Moderator Staff Member

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    Thanks CR, it’s difficult to disagree with your assertions here.

    Gariwerd have dropped down the pecking order, which i think is fair enough given my lists age profile. (Yes, I think you’re right that it’s the oldest list. I’ve only got 1 under 23, and 10 over 30!)
    I agree with you about needing 1 more top line midfielder. I tried to gain one through trade this pre season but didn’t really have the assets (draft picks) at the time to make good enough offers (without trading other first-15 players).

    Sounds like you think the top 8 might be set already. Sounds about right in theory, but hopefully there’s a bit of a race down the stretch for the last couple of finals spots.
     
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  4. TerryinBangkok

    TerryinBangkok Moderator Staff Member

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    Gives us all a challenge. @snoz has drafted well in all drafts he has been involved in, ORFFA no exception. As ant says, hopefully there will be some twists and turns. Can't wait.
     
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  5. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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  6. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Great writeup CR and I think that you have nailed the Nuffers. At our current level there was no point in a short term focused trade to bring in ruck to try to gain 40 points a week and my attempt to get a pick in the range required unfortunately failed to secure a pick that would have nabbed Marshall and provided a 2020 backup ruck option. For now Nuffers fans everywhere will cross our fingers that Nic Nat can return and stay on the paddock and/or CCJ develops much much quicker than expected.

    Looking at our current 2019 best 15 when everyone is fit we miss Simmo's class and ton potential and there are still 9 (mostly underwhelming) 28 pluses but now there is greater potential for our 20-23 year depth players to improve the best 15 over time and provide some tradeable assets in future draft periods however there is still likely to be another concerted effort to jettison the remaining list cloggers over the midseason draft period.

    Our main expectation for 2019 is to reduce donuts and the number of team scores under 1100 to hopefully win more often than not against the bottom tier while looking for our higher scoring 1200 plus weeks to coincide with down weeks from the mid tier sides to boost our chances of climbing out of the bottom 4.
     
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  7. snoz

    snoz Well-Known Member

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    Nice try Lenski.........humble yet a kamikaze!

    My bet is a Fitzy/Lenski quinella.........with me and Graeme hopefully filling out the quaddie!

    Fantastic write up CR !!!!
     
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  8. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    :p I am serious, I finished 2,000 pts behind Fitzy last year, 1200 behiind Graeme and 540 behind you, Graeme's lost TMitch and your youth is improving, I think I've gained maybe 30 pts a week in trades, and approx 30 a week with Zac back, just not enough imo.
    I can also see 3 or 4 of the other sides in with a serious chance.
    I'd like to find a way to fast track rebuilds so teams that have struggled for a while cab improve and challenge quicker, but I don't see many teams going backwards in points for this year which is good for the longer term.
     
  9. snoz

    snoz Well-Known Member

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    I see your point and I’ll raise you this........

    Graeme is right there, but Titch hurts. If Tommy plays, they play in the Grannie again. Fitzy is just strong as fuck - across the board. You’ve added a strong Mid and a strong M/F......I’ve added Ollie but I’m still ‘can the defenders and forwards step up’ kinda team.........5-12 scares me. I might be wrong, but didn’t the Lefties win it from ladder finish 8 not long ago?

    No offense to the bottom dwellers who are rebuilding, but 1 thru 12 have the potential to win it all !
     
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  10. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    As did I last year, and Dean was 7th, anything is possible for sure
     
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  11. That KI Guy

    That KI Guy Moderator Staff Member

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    Quality stuff CR.
    Yeah no doubt we’ll be cellar dwelling for a couple of years, let alone getting anywhere near the 8.
    Time we have.
    And many thanks for casually reminding everyone of our premiership credentials.
    I take back everything that I mumbled under my breath about you.
     
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  12. JC

    JC Well-Known Member

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    Appreciate the optimism mate, but I can't see my lot getting near it this year.
     
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  13. TerryinBangkok

    TerryinBangkok Moderator Staff Member

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    @snoz There's only one Ollie. :cool:
     
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  14. JC

    JC Well-Known Member

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    True - and an apt reference given we're in the Chiefbet thread. Should we expect to see Warriors players or management betting on their opponents this year? ;)

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. graeme

    graeme Well-Known Member

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    Thank you for a terrific analysis Chiefbet - every year this article entertains and informs. Think you are pretty much sopt on, though the lefties could easily go out a turn or three. No Titch hurts but as long as we are alive we'll be fighting.
     
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  16. Bandit

    Bandit Moderator Staff Member

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    Spelunkers board think our odds are a bit short.
     
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  17. Fitzy

    Fitzy Well-Known Member

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    Jeez we'll see. Not sure I'd have myself that short, losing Doc again does hurt and I am ageing in the ruck department. FWD line is also injury prone. Time will tell I suppose, but appreciate it! Hopefully if we go like we did last year, we don't choke again :p
     
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