Best Buys - Round 10

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, May 25, 2016.

By tipbetpro on May 25, 2016 at 6:04 PM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

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    Another big week in TipBetPro land.

    NRL tips are out as always (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/kzu9o) and following on from last week’s success we have our second Test Match Cricket tip and write-up (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!tips-and-bets/zxtux) for the England v Sri Lanka series.

    Another week of looking for upgrades. We haven’t had a ruck yet, and that’s unlikely to change as I figure everyone can make up their own mind as to when they get Goldy, Gawn or NicNat – Goldy is currently good value, wait a week or 2 for Gawn... And that assumes you didn’t start with 2 of those premium rucks.

    This week we are laying out the welcome mat for another mid.

    Regular Best Buy readers would know that there has been some discussion about this player in previous comment sections. This player has gone down in value by over $100k, so suffice to say they’ve had a bad start to the year – but they’ve been a slow starter the last 2 years and still recovered to average over 110. They are already in ~18% of teams, but most of those had him from the beginning and of course you’ll be getting him for a lot less. Whilst not likely to be your top midfielder, he can easily fit into your starting line-up. Now if you’ve got cash to spare, then yes by all means spend it on Hannebery, Pendles or maybe even a Neale - however, if you are looking for a bargain, that special Buy of the Week bargain, then look no further than the 2014 Brownlow medallist himself – Mr Matt Priddis.

    Again, the format below is:
    POSITION Name (CLUB) – current price (expected increase) – AVERAGE

    DEFENDERS
    Rookies:

    M/D Bailey Williams (WBD) - 117k (+34k) - AVG=57 (kid shows a bit but will he keep spot with Boyd, Suckling, Adams etc on the way back)
    DEF Oscar McDonald (MEL) - 155k (+14k) - AVG=45

    Keepers:
    DEF Sam Docherty (CAR) - 555k (+19k) - AVG=109 (was a best buy and still is great buy)
    DEF Kade Simpson (CAR) - 557k (0k) - AVG=106
    DEF Heath Shaw (GWS) - 639k (+27k) - AVG=120 (203… May be a bit pricey now)

    Midfielders
    Rookies:

    MID Jacob Hopper (GWS) - 194k (+51k) - AVG=90 (oozes class)
    MID Connor Blakely (FRE) - 228k (+30k) - AVG=65 (highly impressive and should get increasing opportunities in a depleted Dockers midfield)
    MID Bradley McKenzie (NTH) - 242k (+43k) - AVG=91 (spot under pressure if Wells returns)

    Keepers: (you probably have a few, but probably need a few more)
    MID Matt Priddis (WCE) - 503k (+12k) - AVG=104 (This week’s BoTW)
    MID Luke PARKER (SYD) - 555k (-7k) - AVG=118
    MID Callan Ward (GWS) - 570k (-5k) - AVG=115
    MID Stephen Coniglio (GWS) - 578k (+6k) - AVG=113
    MID Steele Sidebottom (COL) - 587k (+6k) - AVG=116
    MID Lachie Neale (FRE) - 593k (+10k) - AVG=114
    MID Adam Treloar (COL) - 603k (+12k) - AVG=115
    MID Daniel Hannebery (SYD) - 621k (-2k) - AVG=120
    MID Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) - 634k (-13k) - AVG=124 (will likely go down a bit over the next 2 weeks, but only ~20-30k)
    MID Scott Pendlebury (COL) - 645k (+10k) - AVG=120

    Rucks
    Keepers:

    RUC Nic Naitanui (WCE) - 574k (-3k) - AVG=114
    RUC Todd Goldstein (NTH) - 575k (+17k) - AVG=119 (Probably won’t be this cheap again)
    RUC Max GAWN (MEL) - 581k (-42k) - AVG=111 (I’ve left him here as he is still a gun, but honestly you could wait a week and save yourself some coin)

    Forwards
    Rookies:

    FWD Jonathan Freeman (BRL) - 219k (-1k) - AVG=43
    M/F Billy Evans (BRL) - 219k (-1k) - AVG=43 (Only 1 kick against Melbourne, dual position is nice but job security is low)

    Keepers:
    FWD Josh J. Kennedy (WCE) - 507k (+27k) - AVG=108 (Can no longer ignore this form – but wait and see if he plays this week)
    M/F Zac Merrett (ESS) - 514k (+9k) - AVG=105 (A solid effort from last week’s first choice BoTW)
    M/F Leigh Montagna (STK) - 540k (-4k) - AVG=104 (and a solid effort from last week’s late-in)
    M/F Dustin MARTIN (RIC) - 558k (+7k) - AVG=106
    M/F Dayne Zorko (BRL) - 577k (+8k) - AVG=119 (Zorko continues to do well – too obvious to be a BoTW, but a great buy)

    Still a week away:
    DEF Kieran Collins (WBD) - 117k - AVG=17
    M/D Alex Neal-Bullen (MEL) - 231k - AVG=74
    MID Rhys Mathieson (BRL) - 117k - AVG=59
    MID Trent Dumont (NTH) - 248k - AVG=75
    MID Sam Mitchell (HAW) - 482k - AVG=101 (could well be a future BoTW if he returns to his previous best)
    MID Robbie Gray (PTA) - 514k - AVG=104
    RUC Max GAWN (MEL) - 581k - AVG=111
    FWD Jackson Paine (BRL) - 128k - AVG=45
    FWD Jarrod Garlett (GCS) - 185k - AVG=58
    R/F Trent West (BRL) - 197k - AVG=72
    R/F Daniel GORRINGE (CAR) - 222k - AVG=50
    R/F Toby Nankervis (SYD) - 227k - AVG=70
    R/F Majak DAW (NTH) - 244k - AVG=97

    So that’s Best Buys for this week.
    Good luck to all with your trades and hopefully some wins on the weekend. For all your trade discussion feel free to join us in the comments section below.

    Cheers

    http://www.tipbetpro.com/ - your statistically tested guide to tipping and betting on AFL and NRL
     
    • Like Like x 4

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, May 25, 2016.

    1. Boulderdash
      Boulderdash
      Got a strange trade idea for you. Starting Rucks from the beginning are Nic Nat & Gawn (Grimley)
      The following trades are designed with the Byes in mind. Don't want to trade Rucks in the bye rounds - save em for the midfield.
      The following trades will give me 2 playing rucks each bye round (assuming Cox plays) So, is it good to:
      1. Gawn out, Goldy in.
      2. Libba out, (Petracca off bench to Mids), M Cox in, (bank the remainder for upgrades & reopen DPP to Mid links)
      3. Do both trades,
      4. Do none
      5. Other
      :thumbsu::thumbsd::1::2::3::4::5:

      Sitting at 12700 odd overall

      None of my other rookies are ready to cull yet. (Petracca, BenKen, Lyons, Smith, Hewett, Oliver, Wagner, AMT, Hartley, M Brown (ess)).

      Cox has an ave of 66 & be of -24. Interested to know your thoughts as I think he is getting better each game.
      • Option 4 Option 4 x 7
    2. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      Firstly I would argue plenty of the rooks you mentioned are ready to trade out, look at the stats page and check out which ones will earn less than 20k over the next 3 weeks.

      Getting cox in now seems a little unconventional, if you want to gain cash why not just trade out a fattened up rookie for a bottom priced rookie - such as mathieson NEXT week ?
      • Like Like x 1
    3. walesy
      walesy
      Position doesn't much matter over the buys because it's just best 18, so long as you are super stacked in one position for a week, you'll be fine.
      • Like Like x 3
    4. Boulderdash
      Boulderdash
      Thanks for the replies guys. Food for thought indeed.
    5. maxweas1
      maxweas1
      Hi guys,
      Can't believe robbie gray has not made it onto the list. $514k and only 1 non injury score below 120.
      • Like Like x 2
    6. Shagga05
      Shagga05
      He should be on everyone's radar, BE of 136 means there is a good chance he will be cheaper over the next 1-2 weeks.

      I don't like his MRP history this year. This would be my only worry however I see him in my team soon but not this week.
    7. Senator96
      Senator96
      Still a week away. BE is listed at 136 so should bottom out next week. I will have to decide out of him and Parker next week
      • Like Like x 2
    8. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      Agreed, and he did make a list - the "wait a week list".
      Should make the main list next week (assuming he does well again).
      • Like Like x 1
    9. IPOD
      IPOD
      I am seriously looking and thinking about something that i never thought was possible in this game....TRADE OUT GAJ! Pooing it up playing injured/sore could we look to others like Priddis and or a Lachie Neale (seems to be No.1 mid for dockers after Fyfe going down). Have 230 k if i get Priddis will leave almost 270k to upgrade a backman of AMT, Hartley, Brown, DBJ and possibly Adams.

      Thoughts?
      • Dislike Dislike x 3
      • Like Like x 1
    10. JPK
      JPK
      Am I crazy for considering trading Gawn to Goldy?
      Gawn has gone up $30k for the season, to now be worth $580k while Goldy has gone down $120k to be worth $570k so its kind of like a downgrade to a guy who's scoring more points and will probably continue to do so for the rest of the season.
      Yay / nay?
      • Dislike Dislike x 4
    11. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      Might be a bit early to trade out Ablett - i.e. could you use your trades for other purposes (e.g. rookie upgrades/downgrades) which will net you more money/points.
      Also, the week off may have done him good and he might come out firing.

      I wouldn't be trading him in, but equally I wouldn't be trading him out.
      • Like Like x 4
    12. walesy
      walesy
      It's a bold move cotton. :D

      Guess it depends on why Gawn have been so crapful these past few weeks. Should have dominated last week. Is he too sore or something? Maybe they'll give him a rest?
      • Like Like x 2
    13. maxweas1
      maxweas1
      BE 136, 80% of his non injury scores >120, ave against opp 126, at ground 123. Assuming he gets a score around this mark will only drop $3k. I understand the wait and see approach, depends if you are going for overall or leagues. Personally going for overall I need the 120 this week :)
      • Like Like x 1
    14. maxweas1
      maxweas1
      Anyone know how long MacPhearson is out for?

      I am thinking of:
      Hewitt to Hopper
      Dunkley to Gray (I know he hasn't made any cash but unlikely to play and gives me more depth) - that said on the extended interchange so will depend on what happens there.

      Might trade MacPhearson instead which will release an additional 37k.
    15. pollypies
      pollypies
      Apologies for being off topic a bit here but I recall someone posting recently about how to check your opponents team. It mentioned that you can't actually see your opposition's full team (including interchanges) by accessing Leagues and clicking on their team. If anyone remembers could they please repost it?
    16. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      try the Gameday page - from memory I used this last year or the year before and it seemed to show Captain/Vice Captain and any pre 1st bounce trades correctly (don't quote me though)

      as this won't be accessible until the 1st bounce then you need to use the following link
      http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/afl/classic/gameday?leaguenum=1
      http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/afl/classic/gameday?leaguenum=2
      http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/afl/classic/gameday?leaguenum=3, etc
      • Like Like x 1
    17. pollypies
      pollypies
      Thanks @ TheTassieHawk. Wll give it a try.
    18. NedFlanders
      NedFlanders
      Jack Steven anyone? I can see him filling M7 or M8, and he probably (hopefully?) won't be as low again this season as he is this week
      • Like Like x 1
    19. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      I considered him (I do a search on players who have dropped a significant amount), but found his prior years' form to be quite erratic - e.g. it was only 2014 that he averaged 84.
      For a similar amount of money you could go for Priddis, who in previous years has been more consistent - or even Gray, as discussed above (Both Priddis and Gray have averaged 110+ for the last 2 years)
      Steven is cheap and an option, but potentially Priddis or Gray offer more consistency based of previous years stats.
      • Like Like x 1

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