Best Buys - Round 9

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, May 18, 2016.

By tipbetpro on May 18, 2016 at 3:26 PM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

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    A big week in TipBetPro land – we have expanded our empire!
    As always we’ve done our NRL tips again (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/kzu9o) and new to this week we’ve done our first ever cricket tip (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!tips-and-bets/zxtux) for the England v Sri Lanka series.

    Another week of looking for an upgrade target for Buy of the Week – this week we’ll look for a forward as I don’t think we’ve chosen a forward as Buy of the Week yet.

    Some could say we’ve played it safe the past few weeks – Parker, Shaw and Pendles – so this week we are taking a stab at a bit of a dark horse, but that’s not to say that this choice is without merit…

    As previously stated we are going with a forward this week, and no its not Waite or Zorko (although the latter is a good pick, but a bit more expensive than our BoTW). This week’s choice is in less than 10% of teams, yet by average he is the 5th highest ranked forward. Due to a 130 last week his price has gone up $20k from his starting price, but is still cheap for a guy averaging 106 at just under $500k. We normally look ahead to see which teams the BoTW will be playing against, but when you play for Essendon it probably doesn’t matter (let’s face it, they’re likely to lose most games). So if you are in the 90% of teams who don’t have him, think very seriously about picking up this week’s Buy of the Week - Zac Merrett.
    (FYI - that pun earlier in the write-up was 100% intended)

    Again, the format below is:
    POSITION Name (CLUB) – current price (expected increase) – AVERAGE

    DEFENDERS
    Rookies:

    DEF Kaiden Brand (HAW) - 124k (+34k) - AVG=59 (Promising early form but job security always at risk in the powerful Hawks)
    DEF Thomas Lee (STK) - 124k (+42k) - AVG=67 (Concerning that despite dominant form at VFL level can’t break into the Saints side even with Sam Fisher out)
    DEF Aaron MULLETT (NTH) - 200k (+16k) - AVG=56 (May be one of the players to pay the price for the Roos second half fade out against the Bombers)

    Keepers:
    DEF Sam Docherty (CAR) - 513k (+22k) - AVG=106 (an ex-BoTW, still going well)
    DEF Kade Simpson (CAR) - 548k (+8k) - AVG=106 (Will Kade and Carlton’s form continue?)
    DEF Heath Shaw (GWS) - 600k (-2k) - AVG=110 (another ex-BoTW)

    Midfielders
    Rookies:

    MID Darcy MacPherson (GCS) - 102k (+48k) - AVG=68 (One of the few shining lights at the Gold Coast in the past fortnight)

    Keepers: (all these are quality picks)
    MID Steele Sidebottom (COL) - 575k (+4k) - AVG=114
    MID Callan Ward (GWS) - 578k (-10k) - AVG=114
    MID Luke PARKER (SYD) - 584k (-23k) - AVG=118
    MID Adam Treloar (COL) - 586k (+13k) - AVG=115
    MID Scott Pendlebury (COL) - 613k (+16k) - AVG=117
    MID Daniel Hannebery (SYD) - 629k (-2k) - AVG=122
    MID Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) - 654k (-1k) - AVG=129

    Rucks
    Keepers (hopefully you already have two of these):

    RUC Todd Goldstein (NTH) - 553k (-4k) - AVG=112
    RUC Nic Naitanui (WCE) - 586k (-6k) - AVG=116
    RUC Max GAWN (MEL) - 618k (-10k) - AVG=117

    Forwards
    Rookies:

    M/F Benjamin Crocker (COL) - 117k (+24k) - AVG=48 (Scores modest at best and uncertain job security)
    M/F Mason Redman (ESS) - 117k (+18k) - AVG=42 (Has shown signs of potential but drifting in and out of games may place job security at risk)

    Keepers:
    M/F Zac Merrett (ESS) - 496k (+15k) - AVG=106 (This week’s BoTW)
    M/F Luke DAHLHAUS (WBD) - 567k (-3k) - AVG=110
    M/F Dayne Zorko (BRL) - 568k (+6k) - AVG=118 (Doing very well, and was almost the BoTW this week – but I decided to go for a cheaper roughie)
    M/F Leigh Montagna (STK) - 530k (+9k) - AVG=104 (EDIT - A LATE INCLUSION)

    Still a week away:
    M/D Bailey Williams (WBD) - 117k - AVG=60
    DEF Tim Mohr (GWS) - 195k - AVG=46
    DEF Jack Leslie (GCS) - 254k - AVG=90
    MID Jacob Hopper (GWS) - 194k - AVG=106 (although who could blame if you jumped on a week early!)
    MID Bradley McKenzie (NTH) - 242k - AVG=94
    MID Gary Ablett (GCS) - 542k - AVG=111 (may miss this week, so could be 2 weeks away)
    R/F Majak DAW (NTH) - 244k - AVG=97 (Was good for North but bad news for Daw with Brad Scott commenting post-match that their forward line was too tall)
    M/F Jack Hiscox (SYD) - 124k - AVG=25
    FWD Jarrad Waite (NTH) - 507k - AVG=113 (has dropped a bit in price, but if he returns to form he may be good value)

    So that’s Best Buys for this week.

    Good luck to all with your trades and hopefully some wins on the weekend. For all your trade discussion feel free to join us in the comments section below.

    Cheers
    http://www.tipbetpro.com/ - your statistically tested guide to tipping and betting on AFL and NRL... and now cricket too
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2016
    • Like Like x 3
    • Option 5 Option 5 x 1

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, May 18, 2016.

    1. murfdog
      murfdog
      Nice write up! I don't know if I can bring myself to lock in an Essendon player! Im thinking Zorko. But then again, that extra 70k could come in handy....
      Thoughts on Priddis?
      • Like Like x 1
    2. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      I'd offer Leigh Montagna also as one of the best players to get in this week. Bottomed out price, low BE and is still scoring very well. One I'm strongly considering. Especially with Lids next week likely bottoming out on his price as well.

      Also don't panic everyone, but hearing even more injury news so far this week. Not only is Houli gone for 3 months, Adams is confirmed as missing another week, Ablett is almost a certainty to miss because of concussion sustained last week, A.Hall is facing a fitness test due to a shoulder injury, Wells achilles looks like it could keep him out for another couple of weeks or until after the byes and we still have nfi what Lyon is doing with Barlow!

      upload_2016-5-18_17-41-15.png
      • Like Like x 7
    3. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Is his season back on track? West Coast's form away from home is very average this year. I'd wait a week on him personally. He's not going to rise too much even if he has a big game.
      • Like Like x 1
    4. Len
      Len
      My trades pending the usual last minute disasters are Hopper and Joey, locked.
    5. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      I don't know how I missed Monty - I had him last week as a "wait a week" option, he did well and I just over looked him.
      A solid option, so I've done something I probably won't do too often and added him to the list.
      • Like Like x 4
    6. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      Agree with port_leschenault, wait a week (or maybe 2).
      You really want those mid-guns to be absolute guns and I'm not sure Priddis is a gun this year - yet...
      • Like Like x 1
    7. walesy
      walesy
    8. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      • Like Like x 3
      • Option 2 Option 2 x 1
    9. The_Swert
      The_Swert
      Anytime Priddis is under $500k is a bargain. Champions don't stay down too long.
      • Like Like x 2
    10. benny01
      benny01
      I've been waiting for Montagna to bottom out for weeks. It looks like I may have to use my other trade to avoid a donut
      • Like Like x 1
    11. murfdog
      murfdog
      I agree... Im going to grab him this week, and also the 'new' best buy! Montagna!
      • Like Like x 1
    12. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Can you say definitively that Priddis is going to score better than the likes of Danger, Selwood, Pendles, GAJ, Ward, Hanneberry, Parker Sloane? He's definitely an option now that Fyfe, Beams, Rocky etc have all fallen by the wayside for one reason or another but I'd still be cautious over him. If you think he's priced too good to pass up, then go for it, I just think the risk is high and you're not going to lose out by waiting and seeing if he can back up his scoring. Now watch him get 150 against Port. :p
    13. thokash
      thokash
      I need some reinforcements in the forward line, just weighing up who exactly. Need votes!

      1) Dustin Martin - yes I didn't start with him, pretty much always in top 6 forwards and it's probably now or never to get him
      2) Leigh Montagna - good POD, bottomed out, possibly could be rested which is bad for a POD
      3) Luke Dahlhaus - seems like mr consistent, guaranteed to be top 6 but slightly more expensive than other options
      4) Brett Deledio - the Tiger POD, I think I would want to give him at least one more week, and not sure I want both Dusty and him

      Already have Zorko and Merrett.
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 4
      • Option 2 Option 2 x 2
      • Option 3 Option 3 x 1

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