Being Grand Final week for Supercoachers, I thought that I would provide an in depth look at our captain’s choice for this round. A word of warning in my maiden write up – statistics are not determinative. For example, everyone will remember Lindsay Thomas’ huge 217 game against Carlton in Round 12. That remains his only game with a score over 100. His next highest score is 96. His next highest score is only 69. Records are meant to be broken and statistics always change.

In a game such as Supercoach, there are too many variables. I use statistics to identify trends and likely outcomes (and by the way, I am not a statistician!!). One final rider – and that is, I am generally quite conservative and will normally take the safer option when it comes to picking a captain.

From a purely non-statistical point of view, it is clear that the top 4 teams are locked in and do not have much to play for. Such teams may be afflicted by “general soreness” or the flu. Geelong and St Kilda are both in this category but a captain from these teams is looking most attractive because of their opponents for the round (West Coast at Skilled Stadium, and Adelaide at AAMI respectively). Geelong and St Kilda have both beaten those respective opponents in 7 out of their previous 8 games (back to 2005). Winning teams generally generate higher SuperCoach scores for their players.
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Geelong Players

Ablett v. West Coast

Rd 11 2010: 121 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 11 2009: 175 SuperCoach points, 43 disposals
Rd 22 2008*: 107 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 169 SuperCoach points, 37 disposals
Rd 7 2007*: 106 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 10 2006*: 95 SuperCoach points, 15 disposals

Average is 129 SuperCoach points with 29 disposals.

Note: His home ground average is only 103 with 23 disposals against West Coast. However, his average at home this year is a huge 147. Had to play with a bandage on his hand after a Carlton player stood on it. Mark Thompson, “Gary’s probably ok …”.

Selwood v. West Coast

Rd 11 2010: 123 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 11 2009: 106 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 22 2008*: 128 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 84 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals
Rd 7 2007*: 49 SuperCoach points, 12 disposals

Average is 98 SuperCoach points with 23 disposals.

Note: Average at home this year is 126.

Chapman v. West Coast

Rd 11 2010: 142 SuperCoach points, 36 disposals
Rd 11 2009: 133 SuperCoach points, 24 disposals
Rd 22 2008*: 40 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals
Rd 13 2008: 163 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 10 2006*: 87 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals

Average is 113 SuperCoach points with 24 disposals.

Note: Average at home this year is 129.

St Kilda Players

Goddard v. Adelaide

Rd 10 2010: 148 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 129 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals
Rd 2 2009: 85 SuperCoach points, 17 disposals
Rd 21 2008: 146 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 12 2006: 132 SuperCoach points, 33 disposals

Average is 128 SuperCoach points with 30 disposals.

Note: His recent history against Adelaide has been fantastic except for the 2009 game in round 2 where he was tagged for most of the game by Bernie Vince. If you ignore that game, his average since 2006 is 139 SuperCoach points with 33 disposals.

Montagna v. Adelaide

Rd 10 2010: 159 SuperCoach points, 38 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 107 SuperCoach points, 29 disposals
Rd 2 2009: 127 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals
Rd 21 2008: 147 SuperCoach points, 31 disposals
Rd 15 2007: 142 SuperCoach points, 32 disposals
Rd 12 2006: 35 SuperCoach points, 19 disposals

Average is 120 SuperCoach points with 28 disposals.

Note: Like Goddard, his recent history against Adelaide has been fantastic. Take away his terrible game in 2006 and you have an average of 136 SuperCoach points with 30 disposals since 2007. Recent history also suggests that Adelaide tend to tag Dal Santo and/or Hayes and not Montagna.

The other obvious choice for captain is Dane Swan against a desperate Hawthorn team.

Swan v. Hawthorn

Rd 4 2010: 130 SuperCoach points, 34 disposals
Rd 16 2009: 140 SuperCoach points, 35 disposals
Rd 18 2008: 88 SuperCoach points, 26 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 80 SuperCoach points, 22 disposals
Rd 13 2007: 114 SuperCoach points, 30 disposals
Rd 17 2006: 63 SuperCoach points, 14 disposals
Rd 2 2006: 98 SuperCoach points, 28 disposals
Rd 10 2005: 77 SuperCoach points, 23 disposals.

Average is 99 SuperCoach points with 27 disposals.

Note: Not the best average against Hawthorn. A good recent history though. Scored 130 whilst being tagged by Ellis and 140 whilst being tagged by Sewell. Collingwood with the minor premiership locked in might want to reduce the game time for its key players.

I will also take a brief look at some of the forwards. In my view, they are all high risk, high reward propositions because their SuperCoach scores can be largely dependent on whether they kick enough goals on a given day.

In his last three games, Franklin has destroyed Collingwood with an average of 150. Last year he kicked 5 goals, 4 behinds for 118 points. In 2008, he kicked 8 goals, 6 behinds for 171 points and also 6 goals, 4 behinds for 162 points.

Nick Riewoldt has normally been manned up by Bock who has now left the club. In his past 6 games against the Crows, Riewoldt has only averaged 99 SuperCoach points with 2.5 goals and 2 behinds. His form and the fact that Bock has gone should see him exceed his average. His most recent game against them netted him 145 SuperCoach points with 4 goals and 5 behinds. Has averaged 131 in his past 5 games.

Jack Riewoldt’s Tigers are playing Port Adelaide at Etihad. In Riewoldt’s three games at Etihad this year he has kicked 6 goals, 5 goals and 7 goals (against St Kilda, Fremantle and St Kilda again) giving him 120, 130 and 159 SuperCoach points at an average of 136. He should score well against Port Adelaide.

My opinion: It seems that the best bets for this round are Goddard, Montagna, Swan and Ablett.

Good luck to all!!