What to do, what to do, what to do?

28 years old. Taken at pick 30. Shattered coaches on the weekend.

His results for this season so far are:

130 (WCE)
171 (CAR)
141 (PTA)
81 (WBD) - This is where the mystery illness took hold
39 (MEL) - A 39 against last years wooden spooners.

As with last week and Riewoldt, this one player has dominated our comments. So heres my thoughts.

So whats going on?
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The official Brisbane Lions line is <a href="http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/93183/default.aspx">Brown a certainty to face Swans[/url]. Honestly though, I think that is a scarier option than him having time off. If Brown is still underdone, and goes out to play- not only does he stand the chance of injurying himself further, he will also more than likely take another massive salary drop. Predictions say that if Brownie puts up another 40, then hes going to drop another $77k. Two more 40s will see the Browndawg drop into the 300 thousands.

So its of dire importance to find out whats going on.

Before we look into that, lets remember what makes a solid trade. 300 points and $100k. Or $200k+ as a downgrade. So can we use the same principles to question a falling star? If Brown scores two 40s, then a trade will earn you roughly 120 points and $150k. Which is pretty damn close to a decent trade. Three 40s, which is almost worst case, would see the trade earn you 180 points and $210k. Which is a trade we should do.

Worst case is that he does that, then goes on a surgury based holiday for a couple.

So we know, if we expect Brown to go downhill, then trade now. But what if he doesnt crash horribly? What if he just performs poorly poor the next 17 weeks ala Hodge/Judd? Lets see what an average of 80 would do. Well, the first thing- its gunna lose you $150k. But thats all unrealised losses. So you cant really count that. What you can count though, is 17 rounds of 20ppg that youre missing. See: 340 points.

Which is interesting. If JB averages 80 from here to the end of the season, even if he posts 40s for the next three weeks, then its a line-ball as to whether or not you should be moving him on.

And its big JB. If hes playing for the rest of the season, hell average more than 80.

So really for mine, the question lies- Will this injury cause JB to miss games. And that is the great unknown really.

In my opinion, the club would not be playing him if playing him would agrevate the injury. So unless its an injury thats been misdiagnosed, then Ill be holding onto big JB. And hey, the Brisbane doctors are paid the big bucks while Im here writting on the internet because they know what theyre doing.

I guess, what Im trying to say is- Trading out Brown is probably a 50/50 proposition at the moment, actually, probably 40/60. But if you do trade him out, strongly consider why you will be doing it. Remember to consider what that trade in particular will bring to your team. As we know, trades are valuable and if youre just thinking in the short term, youre doing it wrong.