Erstwhile coach of the ORFFA's Foul Bay franchise Chief Russell has kindly volunteered his time to put together the 2014 ORFFA premiership betting market, as well as review the 2013 ORFFA season predictions he made around 12 months ago. As the ORFFA trade period progresses, with the pre-season draft upcoming, we thought it would be a good time to share this update via the ORFFA and TS blog. Enjoy everyone.




Team: Iron Knob
2014 Odds: 2.50 (fav.)
Rationale: Were clearly the best team last year, but had their worst game when they could least afford to in the first week of the finals. Looked unbeatable prior to that. Some will claim that the bookie is trying to deflect attention, but go and look at last year's end of Home and Away season ladder and points for.
2013 Odds:5.00 (2nd)
2013 Position: 1st after H&A, 5th after finals
How did I go? Got it pretty much correct (was a no-brainer)

Team:Foul Bay
2014 Odds:3.00
Rationale:Don't quite have the Best 15 firepower of Iron Knob, but might have slightly better depth in the forwards and ready to play mids. Just got to nail team selections.
2013 Odds:3.00 (1st)
2013 Position:3rd after H&A, 1st after finals
How did I go?Finals series saved some egg on the face.

Team:Mount Beauty
2014 Odds:5.00
Rationale:Said last year that they had the best young talent on their list. They are now ready to go. Coach Bama has clearly realised this, adding established 100+ scorers in Boyd and NRoo to the lineup for next to nothing. The big movers in the premiership race. Easily the best forward line and rivaling Iron Knob and Cradle Mountain for best mids. Defence only thing stopping me from guaranteeing them a top 4 finish at the very, very least.
2013 Odds:14.50 (12th)
2013 Position:11th
How did I go?Bookies will take that result.

Team:Waikikamoocow
2014 Odds: 8.50
Rationale: While I have probably not learnt from last year's odds, I am just a bit worried about depth outside of top 15. Brad Crouch is currently M4 by my estimation and while he is a jet, they are probably a couple of injuries away in the mids or backs from some pain. Their best 15 is very ominous and very young, meaning they will be around for a long while.
2013 Odds:15.50 (eq.13th)
2013 Position:2nd after H&A, 6th after finals
How did I go?Butchered this one badly. Apologies Chels...

Team:Darraweit Guim
2014 Odds:10.00 (STOP PRESS, UPDATED to $7 after trading for Goddard from Powlett Plains)
Rationale:Brilliant finals run nearly had them snatching the premiership from 7th. Arguably the best backline in the ORFFA and second best ruck combo behind Iron Knob when fit. Solid forward line too. Did give up some firepower in the mids to lure NicNat though and that is what stops them being at the very pointy end of betting.
2013 Odds:12.00 (7th)
2013 Position:7th after H&A, 2nd after finals
How did I go?Had it right, then the finals happened...

Team:Birdsville
2014 Odds:12.00
Rationale: Solid team, that had a solid season last year (missed out on a GF by 4 points) and should do the same again this year. Missing the big name talent, but very even across the board meaning that they won't necessarily have the drop offs of some of their rivals.
2013 Odds:8.00 (4th)
2013 Position:5th after H&A, 3rd after finals
How did I go?Another success.

Team:Wagga Wagga
2014 Odds:13.00
Rationale: Pushed the premiers in Round 1 of the finals and have added Franklin and Watson to the mix. They did however lose Beams (who will go large) and Goddard. Forward line after Franklin isn't quite top shelf and wouldn't want injuries to their starting mids. Should make finals.
2013 Odds:12.50 (eq. 8th)
2013 Position:8th after H&A, 8th after finals
How did I go?Tick.

Team:Venus Bay
2014 Odds:15.50
Rationale:Like the addition of Beams and got some handy positioning help with Parker moving to the forward line. Really good 'best 11', just lacking a few pieces. Pick 3 will provide one of them.
2013 Odds:12.50 (eq. 8th)
2013 Position:10th (missed on 8th by points for)
How did I go?I'll take it.

Team:Charlie's Opening
2014 Odds:15.50
Rationale: Like the Cows, I have probably underrated this mob a bit (although not as much as last year). I very much see them in contention for the top 8, but for mine the injury and late start to Andrew Swallow's year is a big deal. It hurt them in the first week of the finals and I think it will hurt them early in 2014 before they come home with a wet sail. I don't really expect Dan Jackson to do what he did last year. In any case, improvement will come from other areas.
2013 Odds:15.50 (eq.13th)
2013 Position:4th after H&A, 7th after finals
How did I go? Got this one quite a bit wrong.

Team:Gariwerd
2014 Odds:16.00
Rationale:Taylor Walker starting late is a bit of a blow (as it was to their 2013 season in general). They do have four decent(while sometimes frustrating) options to play. Zac Smith as the lone, injured ruckman is the big one here though. Might want to get in on the Tom Nicholls auction...
2013 Odds:13.50 (11th)
2013 Position:9th (missed out on 8th by points for)
How did I go? In the ballpark

Team:Whitsundays
2014 Odds:19.00
Rationale:Lobbe and Black did a lot more on 2013 than I expected so I will eat some humble pie on that one. Steven Motlop is a jet, but a jet with an injury riddled pre-season.Lots of youngsters that are building, but are not quite there yet.
2013 Odds:22.50 (18th)
2013 Position:13th
How did I go? Too harsh.Some youngsters better than I thought. See above for humble pie eaten. Odds this year a reflection.

Team:Marble Bar
2014 Odds:19.00
Rationale: Got some very good young kids and access to more in the draft. A lot do play for bottom of the ladder teams which I obviously didn't factor in enough last season. In my defence, injuries did bite them more than most last year, but probably highlighted gaps in depth with the kids still a year or two away.
2013 Odds:10.50 (5th)
2013 Position:17th
How did I go? Swap them and the Cows around and I had it right....Equal biggest miss of 2013.

Team: Cradle Mountain
2014 Odds:19.50
Rationale:Positioning gods well and truly got them. Their best forward (Stevie J) is a mid only and their best defender (Heppell) is too.They were already pretty potent in the mids and while they have the equal best (with Iron Knob) midfield squad in the game, you can only play at most 6 and they have 7. And very few forwards (Jude Bolton retired too). And no reliable ruckman. Shame really, I like the players in this team. It's all just unbalanced. Could be big movers if they can get stuff done in the trade and draft period.
2013 Odds:6.50 (3rd)
2013 Position:12th. No ruckman for most of the year killed them.
How did I go?No good.

Team:Larrakin Lagoon
2014 Odds:21.00
Rationale: NicNat and pick 3 are big losses for now and, in particular, the future. The mids look solid on paper and will provide most of the scoring power.
2013 Odds:11.00 (6th)
2013 Position:16th (points for had them a more respectable 12th)
How did I go?They were possibly the unluckiest team last year (save for Iron Knob's finals series). Despite this, I still got them very wrong. NicNat's injury hurt...alot.


Team:Powlett Plains
2014 Odds:21.00 (UPDATE - out to $25 after trading Goddard to Darraweit Guim)
Rationale: Finished up in the top 4 after finals, then coach Raptor went on what seemingly looked like a fire sale to rebuild. There is a longer game clearly in place here, but it will mean some short term pain and a drop from the heights of last year.
2013 Odds:17.50 (17th)
2013 Position:6th after H&A, 4th after finals
How did I go?Got this one very wrong as well.

Team:Gundagai
2014 Odds:21.50
Rationale:Couldn't get a team on the park last year. Mid season draft fixed it a bit and I expect the PSD to do the same. A big year from Sandi and their aging mids should help, but forward line needs some Boyd or Hogan help. But will the lure of Jack Martin be too great?
2013 Odds:16.00 (eq. 15th)
2013 Position:18th
How did I go?Didn't expect all the injuries, but pretty close none the less.

Team:Lovely Banks
2014 Odds:22.00
Rationale: Still trying to fix the mess left by the previous ownership so this one is going to take some time. Put some encouraging performances together during a 3 or 4 week patch, but still a couple of quality players short in each line.
2013 Odds:12.50 (eq 8th)
2013 Position:15th
How did I go?Underestimated the rebuilding job that needed to take place here.

Team:Nunawading
2014 Odds:24.50
Rationale: Simpson and Broadbent moving to defence makes the backline look better. They do have 12 defenders now though which is a worry. Means that they have basically no forward line/ruck division and very little midfield depth.
2013 Odds:16.00 (eq.15th)
2013 Position:14th (17th on points for)
How did I go?Right around the mark.