As promised, TipBetPro has crunched the numbers, inputted the teams and come up with the following tips for Round 1 of the AFL season – Also, see below for our Richmond tip which was 8 points out, but a lot closer than the betting market which had them winning by 27:

For statistical Round 1 squad rankings and brief match previews, head to http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/cee5 and as a special treat for TooSerious readers, we’ll take an in-depth look right here at the numbers behind our prediction for Sydney to just get over the line (current odds and tipping guides suggest a more comfortable Sydney win).

We noted in our pre-season predictions article on TooSerious last week that we expect Sydney to slide due to a lack of depth and inability to cover key injuries. Well the test for the Swans will come straight up in Round 1 with five of their first choice starting 22 out of the side in Ted Richards, Jarrad McVeigh, Ben McGlynn, Gary Rohan and Sam Reid all out of the side.

We’re all used to seeing an experienced Sydney outfit but it may surprise some that the Swans experience levels this round are only ahead of developing sides Essendon, Carlton, Brisbane and Melbourne. And make no mistake – experience is a proven leading indicator to success at AFL levels. Isaac Heeney, Zak Jones, Michael Talia, Callum Sinclair, Dean Towers, Daniel Robinson and debutants Callum Mills, Tom Papley and George Hewett will all take the field against Collingwood with 30 games or less experience. Of that group – only Isaac Heeney is performing above expectations compared to his cohort. So not only will the Swans be taking to the field with a large group of youngsters – they’ll be doing it with a group that is rated below average. This is no Western Bulldogs circa 2015 or Port Adelaide circa 2013 we’re talking about here.

On the other side of the equation is a side TipBetPro have as a bolter in season 2016. Collingwood have suffered through horrific runs of injury in the last two seasons but what that has built is a deep list where the Pies youth has more AFL experience than many other sides clamouring for Top 4 births in 2016. A player like Jordan De Goey for instance, is tracking well ahead of historical trends for a player of his limited experience. Furthermore, the acquisition of Adam Treloar, rated by TipBetPro inside our Top 100 players in the AFL, has added A Grade talent to an already highly rated midfield.

Experience Summary

Talent Summary


So are the Pies going to win? No, not quite – Sydney do have a higher rated forward line than the Pies and the absence of Jamie Elliot only furthers casts doubts over the Pies capabilities to post a winning score. In addition, the above table shows that the Swans guns are rated higher than their Collingwood counterparts and so often we see that it is the performance of the star players that ultimately decide a game. And of course the game is at the SCG – where TipBetPro rate Sydney in excess of a 2 goal better side. However, other stats are on the Pies side - statistically match-ups that approximate the player experience and player ratings of this clash results in victory around 60% of the time to teams in the Pies position. Taking into consideration that the Pies give up home ground advantage, this reduces to just under 50%. So like the Richmond v Carlton game, we think it will be a toss of the coin style game – and only due to the home ground advantage, we are picking Sydney by 2.

So give us your thoughts on these tips – have we got the Sydney vs Collingwood game wrong? What about the rest - are you tipping any roughies?

And as always we welcome all feedback or questions on our predictions or anything else you find on our website – our weekly NRL tips, based on a similar approach, is doing well so far in its debut season where we have tipped 3 more winners than the bookies favourites so far – including predicting the Dragons to beat the Rabbitohs last week, where the Dragons were $3.00 outsiders (apologies, the NRL guy made me write that!)

A quick apology for the timing of these predictions, because they are player based, we do have to wait for the teams to be named – and then because we are WA based, we do have to wait until after our 9-5 jobs.

Cheers for reading

Kim Read and Jason Ridley
http://www.tipbetpro.com/ - your statistically tested guide to tipping and betting on AFL and NRL