@tipbetpro
You have the Eagles as the worst improvers (degraders?). Do you still have them falling or has the last few weeks got them turning it around?

No, we don't have them turning it around just yet. However it should be pointed West Coast have fielded a very experienced side this season and one which was highly rated to begin with which limits their scope for improvement. In fact the Eagles biggest improvers on our rankings have been Naitanui and Kennedy who were already stars of the competition and have just continued to get better. Only really Liam Duggan fits into the lowly ranked at start of year player category that find it easier to improve whereas other sides have many more of these type of player.

It is to do with the start rankings of the big improvers. The Giants big improvers have been Shiel, Kelly, Scully, Shaw and Coniglio - although all on the rise, none of that group were rated badly to begin with which limits the scope for improvement. The Suns big improvers have been Wright, Currie, Ah Chee, Hall, Lynch and Lonergan ... apart from Hall and Lynch, the rest barely even had a rating at the start of the season which means their overall growth has been higher even though they are still rated well below their Giants counterparts.

You're over-reacting to form ... it's not as great a leading indicator for tipping as you think it is. Where there is significant talent and experience vs form disparities - talent and experience win out about 3/4 of the time historically. That is the case here - Melbourne are playing the far better footy (albeit based on destroying the two Queensland sides) but man for man they don't match up well to Port. The only position where Melbourne hold a compelling edge is in the ruck and the loss of Jonas has only served to even up the talent of both defences. Port have a deeper and more talented midfield and a greater range of proven forward line options to take advantage of the midfield edge. If the Power can go close to neutralising the clearances from the Dees ruck supremacy, they should win this. From a team factor perspective - Home Ground advantage has been cancelled out for this game due to it being played in the NT instead of Melbourne. We're comfortable with our model giving a 67% confidence in the Power.

Yes, it seems so. Explaining the Eagles last and the Suns rising more than the Giants. If it is indeed the case, then once some sort of scaling is done to show how improvement per spot is tougher at the top than bottom, I'm sure the Giants would have equal if not much better improvement

Correct - average of sum of changes to each individual player that has played at least 1 game in season 2016. Suns benefit because so many of their players that have played plenty this season barely had rankings at season start. To be honest that's deceptive because players in squads like the Suns only have one way to go (it's actually more concerning that a team like Brisbane is still below average despite being in a similar situation). It is those mid-high range teams who have had huge ranking rises where this becomes useful as a forecasting tool. The Dogs and Swans fit that description and they have now shifted from mid-range sides to genuine premiership hopefuls on our model as a result of their squad growth over the season to date.

It should be pointed out that despite the decline in the Eagles, we still rate them as the best overall best 22 (on a neutral ground) after accounting for season-ending injuries/illness (i.e. Roughead for Hawks drops them off top spot). It is just at season start we had the Eagles and Hawks convincingly out in front - over the season shifts in player rankings have seen Sydney, Geelong, Dogs, GWS and North closing the gap.

You are an awful judge of your own team
Congrats on the win

Pretty good tipping this round Betpro, I'm hoping Bing didn't predict the blues win