Well The week has started well for us, and I know it may be hard to believe as I'm posting this after the fact (it was on our website last night though) but we actually predicted the Hawthorn to win by... 22 points.

As per the intro, this week we are having a look at 2 of the more important games of the round:

Geelong vs Sydney
Geelong should be well rested after the bye and desperate to make a statement following their shock loss to the Saints before the bye. The one thing the Cats do well is make statements against Top 8 opposition and with the best record against fellow finalists in the league this spells bad news for the Swans. For what it is worth the Swans played well in what was a brilliant match against the Dogs that was not decided until the last kick of the match. The return of Ted Richards shores up their defence especially with the return of Mitch Clark to Geelong’s line-up but they have left out a bit of out-of-form talent (notably Heeney and McGlynn) which drops the Swans ranking this week. The Cattery is a notoriously difficult place to win and with minor advantages all over the park we expect Geelong will get the job done relatively comfortably in the end. Cats by 35 with 78% confidence in a Geelong victory.

West Coast vs North Melbourne
In a tightly bunched top 8 these two sides are clearly worst placed to make a charge at the Top 4 (making a mockery of our prediction from not that long ago that it would be a West Coast vs North Grand Final!). North are 7th with a poor percentage and West Coast are 8th and a game behind the teams bunched from 2nd to 7th. To make their predicament worse we rate the draw for the Roos and Eagles tougher than any other team in the Top 8. So needless to say a win here is a must if either side is to retain hope of a Top 4 spot. We had this game as a possible North upset earlier in the week but with key players Jarrad Waite and Nick Dal Santo failing to get up for the trip to Perth we now rate West Coast the clearly superior side. With a horror final three games of GWS (away), Hawthorn and Adelaide (away) – the Eagles simply must win every game over the next month and they should take care of this one. West Coast by 23 with 68% confidence of an Eagles victory.

The remaining Round 16 tips are as follows. Check out our full reviews and betting recommendations at http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/cee5



Should you want any stats looked at for next week’s TooSerious feature article, let us know and we’ll be sure to give it a go!