We at TipBetPro like to identify value bets every week based on significant differences between our model expectations and confidence on the outcome of any given match and that of the betting market. However, that’s not what this week’s article is about – this week, we are looking from a fan’s perspective. What if you just want to punt on your team and only your team … how would you fair on that basis? The following chart shows the results of placing a $1 dollar bet (we’re of course very conservative punters at TipBetPro) on every side in every game they’ve played this season.


So Collingwood would have made punters $6.73 to be the most profitable side to bet on in season 2016. Why Collingwood? After all – they’ve only won 7 games so there must be at least 9 losing bets amongst them. Well they may not have won many games but there has been some serious value amongst the Pies win. In particular, the win over GWS (paying $8.50) was the biggest paying bet of the season whilst Collingwood’s win over Geelong ($4.75) sits in 7th.

Other good sides to bet on have been Carlton (big paying wins over Geelong at $7.50 and Fremantle at $6.00), Adelaide (highest paying win was against West Coast at $3.05 … but they haven’t lost too many) and the Dogs (like Adelaide haven’t lost too many and got a nice kicker from a $3.05 win against Sydney).

Unsurprisingly the rewards have been sparse from betting on Brisbane, Freo, Essendon and Gold Coast this season.

What about teams you hate – you just love to bet against them and profit whilst they lose.


Well good news for those who are not fans of the Purple Muppets from down Fremantle way … betting against them this season has been a great strategy! Early in the season accounts for the majority of these profits as home losses to Gold Coast ($5.25) and Carlton ($6.00) make up the profit on the Dockers. Geelong haven’t lost too many but when they do it pays plenty with each of their 5 losses being at high odds. And Melbourne may have been much improved but losing to Essendon ($6.25) plus a pair of losses to the Saints has made it a profitable time for those going against the Dees.

Don’t write off the Hawks – only 3 losses for the season (none of which were particularly great value) has the Hawks our worst side to bet against whilst the Crows, Dogs and Eagles have also not been good sides to spite bet against.


Round 18 Tips
Three huge games this week:

• North are on the slide and with no Waite and an out-of-form Petrie they’re once strong forward line is in disarray. We suspect the Pies will continue to be a friend of the punters for an underdog win.
  
• The bookies can’t see past the Cats at home but we our model can’t look past the form of Adelaide with the best attack in the competition and a defence that has become more formidable by the week.
  
• Port has finals in their sights whilst the Giants are nowhere near the same side away from home as they are at Spotless – we like the Power’s chance of an upset.
  

Check out our full reviews of these and all Round 18 games at http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/cee5



Should you want any stats looked at for next week’s TooSerious feature article, let us know and we’ll be sure to give it a go! Also be sure to follow us on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/Tip-Bet-Pro-916363665124146/?fref=ts) or on Twitter (@tipbetpro)