Round 9 Tips & Injury Analysis

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, May 19, 2016.

By tipbetpro on May 19, 2016 at 10:40 PM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

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    Injuries are not an excuse, they’re a reason – Gerard Whately (well probably someone else before him but I love Gerard and that’s who I heard it from). TipBetPro are fully in Gerard’s camp with this one and as much as people hate to use injuries as an excuse, the fact is there is (unsurprisingly) a strong correlation between teams missing their best players and under-performance.

    The table below looks at how many Top 10 ranked players (as ranked by TipBetPro based on AFL Player Rankings, SuperCoach points and optimal experience levels) from every club have missed through injury or suspension over the first 8 rounds of the season. The trend is clear with only Hawthorn (equal 7th on the “Injury Ladder”) managing to find themselves both in the Top 8 on the AFL Ladder and Injury Ladder (and many would argue that the Hawks have under-performed and are lucky to be there). As much as criticism has been levelled at the likes of Collingwood, Fremantle and Richmond this season – we would argue there is good reason for their poor 2016 season-to-date with numerous key players absent from all sides. In the opinion of TipBetPro, perhaps the spotlight should be more on the Saints who have only managed the two wins this season despite having the best run with injury in the AFL (although one might argue we would be looking very differently on the Saints had they managed to defeat Hawthorn and North Melbourne and were 4&4).

    Meanwhile whilst there is no doubt that North Melbourne and Geelong have been superb to start the season – given their charmed runs with injuries (although the luck starting to change for North!) perhaps the test is still to come!
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    TipBetPro Tips
    Not a lot of excitement with TipBetPro following the favourites with our tips this week although we have a lot more confidence in a Richmond victory and a lot less confidence in West Coast and GWS than the market.
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    Check out our full match previews at http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/cee5 and once again if there is any analysis on teams or players you would like us to take a look at please let us know.
     
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Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, May 19, 2016.

    1. walesy
      walesy
      It feels like there are more injuries this year that last.

      Maybe that's just more noticeable on the fantasy front this year?
    2. stowie
      stowie
      Anyone brave enough to go with Bing again...

      upload_2016-5-20_14-43-58.png
      • Like Like x 3
    3. Jason
      Jason
      Our backline this week is missing:
      Murphy, Boyd, Suckling, Johannisen and Adams.
    4. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      Haha I am giving up if Bing gets it right again.
      Yep tough game for the Dogs - we have Murphy and Boyd as our 1st and 3rd most influential players at the Dogs respectively whilst Suckling and Johannisen are both rated Top 15 (JJ with a bullet was trending to Top 10 before his injury).
      However we still rate the Dogs a reasonable chance (38%) of beating the Giants this week. The depth at the Dogs is strong and they can cover their injuries better than most teams whilst the Giants are also missing three key players in Ryan Griffen, Phil Davis and Devon Smith. In addition we see the Dogs primary strength this season as being their contested ball winning ability which should remain relatively unaffected by the outs.
    5. choppers
      choppers
      I couldn't help but notice Jason's post above and it certainly is tough having your whole backline missing and I sympathize.
      Now we, at The Gold Coast Suns, are currently missing from our backline this week
      Saad, Thompson, May, Mckenzie, Leslie........and from our midfield
      Swallow, O'Meara, Ablett, Rosa, Hallahan, Sexton......and from our forwards
      Hall, Miller.

      That's 13 players missing. Pretty tough trying to eke out a win.....
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    6. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      From the afl's late-outs article - you are missing a whole team!

      upload_2016-5-20_14-57-59.png
      • Like Like x 1
    7. choppers
      choppers

      Except he forgot Tom Nicholls in the ruck......so that makes 19, with one on the bench....
    8. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      I don't know why I've wasted so much time developing a model ... next week I'm just copying and pasting Bing's tips
      • Like Like x 2
    9. walesy
      walesy
      I think Bing is a time travelling robot from the future.
      • Like Like x 2
    10. stowie
      stowie
      This is the only explanation!

      @tipbetpro please don't give up, I enjoy reading through these articles each week :)
      • Like Like x 2

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