A comment that Terry made in the 2017 Mid-Season auctions thread has prompted me to do some analysis of ruckman in the ORFFA and in particular the cost of trading in a ruck versus fielding an out of player position in the ruck. It is interesting that the correlation between an ORFFA club’s ladder position/total points and the strength of their ruck division is so strong. Other ORFFA coaches would have more to add in terms of the practical ramifications and the cost of trading a ruckman in. Given that I am the Devils coach I thought I might as well step into the role of Devil’s advocate in response to @TerryinBangkok 's comment in the 2017 Mid-Season auctions thread regarding the value of trading a ruckman in vs fielding an OOP. I have decided to start a new thread, feel free to add to this discussion. Views on ruckman vary greatly across the 18 ORFFA coaches. If a club is rebuilding I agree with Terry that they can afford to be patient in addressing a deficiency in their ruck division. However if a club is contending for finals or an ORFFA Premiership I think not having a ruckman who is getting a regular game in the AFL is a significant weakness. I think going down the path of having an OOP player in the ruck is a greater risk than paying overs to trade in a ruck that is regularly playing in the AFL. There is a very strong correlation between the strength of an ORFFA club’s ruck division and their ladder position/total points scored. 11 Ruckman are averaging at least 94 points per game in 2017, all 11 have played at least eight AFL games this season. Between them the top six teams on the ORFFA ladder at the 2017 mid-season break have eight of these ruckman, putting those teams that don’t have a ruckman regularly playing in the AFL and want to contend for the premiership or a finals berth well on the backfoot before the three four player lines and the interchange are even considered. Each team in the top six on the ORFFA ladder at the 2017 mid-season break have at least one ruckman averaging 94 points or more, whilst the two clubs ranked first and second for total points scored – Venus Bay and Foul Bay each have two ruckman averaging at least 94 points per game. Rucks of top six teams on the ORFFA ladder after Round 10 of the 2017 season: 1. Venus Bay S Martin 10 games @ 104 & M Kruezer 9 games @ 103 2. Gundagai B Grundy 10 games @ 94 – No cover as don’t have a second ruck eligible player 3. Waikikamoocow S Jacobs 10 games @ 97 – have cover with T Campbell 4 games @ 56. Also have 21 year old Reilly O’Brien 4. Foul Bay S Mumford 10 games @ 107 & T Goldstein 9 games @ 95 - have cover with J Spencer 2 games @ 71 5. Marble Bar P Ryder 8 games (out of a possible 9) @ 94 – Also have Shaun Hampson who is sidelined with an LTI 6. Cradle Mountain T Nankervis 9 games @ 100 - have cover with T Boyd 10 games @ 62 & Jordan Roughead who has just returned from a LTI. Also have 19 year old Tim English If an ORFFA Club doesn’t have a ruckman regularly playing in the ORFFA and are forced to field an OOP player in the ruck they would be doing well if this player had a raw score of 80 which would be halved to 40 – a deficit of at least 54 points compared to the average of the number 1 ruck of the top six ORFFA teams above. If you are patient in terms of rectifying a deficiency in your ruck division it could take 2 or 3 years before you have a ruckman on your ORFFA list that is regularly playing in the AFL. Whilst the cost for an ORFFA club to trade in a ruckman that averages 80 plus might be excessive or clubs might be unwilling to trade these players I would expect that trading in a ruckman that averaged between 60 and 80 points would be a better option than fielding an out of position ruck. If I pick the median point, trading in a ruckman averaging 70 would improve your side by 30 points compared to playing an OOP ruck who has a raw score of 80 and halved score of 40. If you traded a forward, midfielder or defender for a ruckman that is regularly playing in the AFL, I would expect the difference between the player traded out and the emergency taking his place in your best 15 would be less than 30 points making it worthwhile to trade a ruckman in instead of having an OOP ruck. I’m sure fellow ORFFA coaches can add to the discussion about trading in a ruckman regularly playing in the ORFFA vs fielding an OOP in the ruck, and their experiences either with completed trades or trade discussions involving rucks. What is the greater risk? A) Fielding an OOP player in the ruck B) Paying overs to trade in a ruck that is regularly playing in the AFL.
Great analysis Dean, very interesting. I agree that it is really dependent on where you see your team at and how you attack the ruck issue.
Ruckmen is an interesting topic Dean - more power to you for bringing it up. It seems simple, one ruck plays each week from 18 afl teams. Thus there seems to be one ruckman for each ORFFA team. As your analysis shows it has not worked out that way. Injury, retirements and bad luck have played a part in some team's inability to field a decent ruckman every week. Jimbowan could write a tasty piece on this subject. For what it is worth the Cows' current approach is to hold a decent, playing ruck (Sauce Jacobs, selected in the inaugural draft) and then find insurance for him. Our insurance is Reilly O'Brien, the #2 ruckman at Adelaide. The theory being if Sauce were unavailable then Reilly would play. That approach may be food for thought for coaches looking to strengthen their ruck division for 2018 and onwards. [BTW, we will be delisting Tom Campbell prior to this MSD, four games out of 10 and with another club is not insurance.] At one time we tried to corner the market in ruckmen, which was a fun strategy. But not all of those selected were particularly good. However, the better ones did command good prices when we changed tack. A few were just delisted. If you were to identify each ORFFA team's (true) back up ruckman that might be intriguing. Both Fitzy and CR (arguably the two strongest teams) have excellent back up as does CMD. Other teams may well be exposed to the 40 point loss described above if they lost their ruck through injury - no more ruckman injuries this year please. The percentage of games decided by 40 points or less this year appears to be quite high - gut feel, I have not done the numbers. When you get to late Sunday afternoon and you and your opponent each have one player to come, there are only a couple of players who can make up a 40 point deficit if the other side has a reasonable (90 point plus) mid. A final point. Stef Martin -30 year 6 months Matthew Kreuzer - 28 years Brodie Grundy - 23 years Sauce Jacobs - 29 years Shane Mumford - nearly 31 years Todd Goldstein - nearly 29 years Paddy Ryder - 29 years Toby Nankervis - 22 years 9 months A couple of guys stick out. I would bet the current top sides all have a strategy in place that recognises that (in most cases) their ruckmen are ageing and the long term nature of ORFFA. If you have not figured out your ruck strategy - please start now. The MSD is upon us and there are some possibilities on the FA list.
Don't draft Ivan Soldo. Longer term, looking more likely to be a forward than a ruck. That's my 2 cents as a Richmond supporter....
Interestingly I am one of the teams not in the top 8 (I can't even see it from here) who has a decent playing ruckman in McEvoy. I have adopted the same tactic as my friend from the long white cloud, in trading for McEvoy and Ceglar... knowing Ceglar would be out this year but hopefully BBM goes around again next year and I have some insurance. Given I am rebuilding though, when I analyzed the draft pool it stood out like dog's genitalia that both Fremantle and the Dogs had drafted for the future with English and Darcy. I wanted English but he got ripped out from under my nose, so I went with Darcy, who is more of a long term prospect. I expect him to get game time in maybe 2019 but with big Lurch getting ever longer in the tooth, and Griffin and Zac Clarke never going to shoot the lights out, it may come sooner than later if Freo keep having 100 point blowouts. The challenge here is that the game is Evolving, and with people like Lin Jong taking the hitouts, who knows what a 'playing ruckman' is going to look like in 1-2 years
Heh heh heh. Nah, I'm actually OK for rucks. But more as a bit of a warning that he is being groomed as a KPF rather than a ruckman (Lord knows Richmond needs one extra of each right now, given the injuries to our tall stocks) so might not stay as a ruckman in the long term. That said, he has plenty of potential about him so might be worth a speculative pick late in the draft.
Incidentally I notice my Tasmanian friend has locked up the Bulldog's ruck stocks as well in English, Roughead and Boyd, given @graeme is going to delist Campbell will Dean make a move
Interesting analysis Dean and, at times, stating the obvious. There is no doubt that if you are making a tilt this year you cannot do it without an A-grade ruckman. My earlier comment was based on taking the longer view for teams that are building and, in some respects, is reinforced by the current ages of A-grade ruckmen posted here. For some, it is now or never and based on the analysis above, Grundy is the jewel. I think every coach has a strategy, hopefully in every line. The offer of Buddy is a good example - great pickup for a team in contention, but not such a wise choice for a team that is building. So it is with ruckmen. Invest in the young B-graders now for the future - the problem being that quite a few who show potential fail to make the grade or take longer than most to hit their straps. My ruck of Currie is a good example - when on the ground he scored quite well and showed heaps of potential. Then they recruited Witts. @graeme strategy of a 1 and 2 from the same club is sound, if you get it right. The alternative is to have a R/F as your backup. Pays to monitor progress in the magoos. And old rucks never die - they just play bridge. Look at Lobbe and Maric. Why rucks are unique in ORFFA is that you only have one on the ground at any one time.
Obviously I think having a genuine gun in the ruck is a priority and if you can have two first choice rucks in your squad, not only does it protect you in terms of injury, but it also takes a first choice ruck away from someone else. It's why I traded for Goldstein and was prepared to give up Seb Ross and my 1st Round PSD. Ross has outscored Goldy this year by 15ppg and has age on his side so some would argue I have lost out on the trade, but if presented with the opportunity, I would do it again. Especially given Mummy's suspension and injury history. Having only one genuine ruck cost me a flag a few years ago when Mummy went down and I had to play OOP in the finals and it's fair to say, not having a ruck might have cost Iron Knob one or two flags when Goldy got traded out.
Better be a bloody outstanding offer... way better than the shit that's being offered by rival coaches for Buddy right now
I havent had a chance to read this thread yet properly and I am looking forward to doing so. I just noticed that Terry has just picked a ruck in the draft! Terry, good job were you just bluffing or have you been convinced by something in this thread?
Most of this has already been said above, but here's my 2c anyway... There are not enough quality ruckmen going around for everyone in ORFFA to have one. That is why they are so valuable. OOP in the ruck is never gonna cut it against a genuine ruckman. The OOP player will most often be the 15th best player for a team which isnt gonna score as much as an average ruck for most teams. I like the strategy G has raised of having the backup on your list. I had the chance to trade in Longer over the last preseason to be cover for Hickey and I wish I hadve done it now since Longer has performed well in Hickey's absence this season and has even jumped ahead of him in the pecking order at StK. When Bellchambers and Hickey were both out at stages this season I had to play an OOP in ruck and it hurt me, from memory I think it seemed to cost me a win once.
Not bluffing. Nothing in this thread persuaded me. Current recognized rucks are aging, but no one is likely to part with any of them. Therefore, a patient youth policy is in order - a question of who do you think is in line and when. Preuss, English and Cameron are the more obvious ones, but they have gone. Mr. Simpson had 63 hitouts, 16 possessions, 8 tackles and a goal in the Magoos last weekend + Mummy can get proppy at times. Hard to ignore. And yes, you may well have lost a game by having an OPP in ruck, but I lost to the Vultures in R1 by 1 miserable point because the thought did not occur to have an OPP in ruck.
It was great to read about everyone’s insight on the ruck division. Cradle Mountain don’t need Jong or Bontempelli as an undersized ruck as we have already got Shaun Grigg for that role, meaning that Toby Nankervis has got a fellow Tiger that can contest the occasional hit-out. In terms of actual ruck eligible players Nankervis is already outnumbered 3-1 by Bulldogs so we weren’t interested in recruiting Tom Campbell and having the Bulldogs outnumber him even more. I am a big fan of @graeme 's handcuffing strategy for the ruck however it took a while for the Devils to reach that position and also succeed the Cows as the ORFFA club with the most ruckmen on their list. Detail on how this occurred is provided below. At the inaugural draft my view was that the ruck was just one of the 13 positions on the field in ORFFA and treated it in a similar way to the other 12 positions on the ground. After my third selection at number 37 overall in the inaugural draft my plan was to select a ruckman with my fourth selection at number 72 overall, however this changed when 11 ruckman were chosen between my third and fourth overall pick, meaning that 16 ruckman were selected in the first 71. I waited another couple of rounds and selected Mark Jamar at 109, and later a second ruckman Trent West with pick 216, the 20th and 23rd ruck eligible players selected respectively. At the time of being drafted by Cradle Mountain Jamar was 28 years old and West was 24 years old. I was already thinking that I needed to implement a long-term plan for the CMD ruck division when it was decided that after the 2013 mid-season draft we would have an expansion draft to increase the size of the ORFFA lists from 26 to 28 players. It was an easy decision to use one of these extra two spots on a young ruckman. I wanted to select Mark Blicavs with pick 9 at the 2013 MSD, however Mount Beauty beat me to it, selecting Blicavs with pick 8. Undeterred, I selected the next young ruck on my list with pick 9 – Liam McBean. At least one rival ORFFA coach suggested that the selection of project-player McBean would have been more appropriate for the expansion draft than the mid-season draft. They proved to be correct as McBean didn’t play a single game at the Devils and only five games for Richmond in the AFL. Given that the CMD had one of the best midfields in the comp in 2014 I decided to only have seven pure midfielders on the list and select a second young ruck to be the fourth ruck-eligible player on CMD’s 2014 list. At the 2013 Under 18 National Championships Toby Nankervis was the dominant ruckman, averaging 154 supercoach points per game and was selected as the ruckman in the Under 18 All-Australian team. I was able to select Nankervis with pick 23 at the 2014 PSD. My plan was for Nankervis develop into the Devils number 1 ruckman whilst Jamar and West were on the list and have McBean as a back-up. Several times in 2014 CMD played two rucks in the team - Jamar and West who finished equal seventh and equal 11th respectively in the CMD best and fairest. After playing the first five games of 2015 Mark Jamar was dropped and didn’t play any of the next five games until the MSD & fellow ruckmen Trent West & Toby Nankervis didn’t play any AFL games up until the ORFFA mid-season break following the completion of Round 10 in the AFL. I had already delisted Liam McBean in the 2015 pre-season, I think he was only eligible to play as a forward in 2015 anyway. With a record of four wins and six losses I went to the MSD with a view to the future as the Devils were very unlikely to make the finals. At pick 8 I selected Western Bulldogs defender Jordan Roughead who from Round 8 onwards had started to spend roughly 50% of his game-time in the ruck, I was hopeful that he would gain ruck eligibility in 2016. During the 2015 mid-season break I delisted Mark Jamar and with my second MSD pick at selection 26 chose another Melbourne ruckman in Jake Spencer. Throughout the entire 2015 season I had three ruck eligible players on my list being Trent West and Toby Nankervis for the entire season along with Jamar for the first half of the season and Spencer for the second half of the season. Due to having limited quality in the ruck and no ruck that was in his AFL club’s full-strength best 22 the Devils field an OOP ruck six times in 2015. When the 2016 positions were announced I got what I wanted with Jordan Roughead as he was a D/R, to be one of four ruck eligible players along with Nankervis, West & Spencer. My gamble on Roughead becoming a D/R paid off as he played all 17 games as the Devils number 1 ruckman in 2016. Toby Nankervis only played seven AFL games for Sydney in 2016 and one game for the Devils on the interchange. West and Spencer were both delisted during the 2016 mid-season break with my second selection at the 2016 MSD – number 24 overall being used to select another ruck in Billy Longer. Without Roughead I would have been forced to play an OOP ruck for most of the season. After Tom Boyd spent considerably more time in the ruck during the second half of 2016 I was hopeful that he would gain ruck eligibility for the 2017 season which he did. When the 2016 season concluded my thinking was if Tom Boyd is a ruck/forward in 2017 I will have three ruck eligible players in Boyd, fellow Bulldog Roughead, and also new Tiger Nankervis so I wasn’t planning to select another ruck at the 2017 PSD and I was almost certain that I would select a forward or defender with pick 8 at the 2017 PSD. When the Bulldogs recruited 19 year old ruckman Tim English with selection 19 at the 2016 National Draft my thinking began to change. In the last couple of months before the 2017 PSD English became my benchmark and when assessing a player I would ask myself the question would I prefer to draft them or English. When the four players I rated ahead of English were all taken in the first seven picks it was an easy decision to select English @ 8. Having Roughead and Boyd was a key factor in deciding to recruit English with pick 8 at this year’s PSD, enabling me to implement the rarely used triple handcuff. Having the three Bulldogs plus Nankervis is as close as I can get to being OOP proof for the ruck. English is the third project-player ruck I have selected and whilst I await English’s progress I am one from two. As mentioned above McBean didn’t play a game, second project-player ruck attempt Nankervis only played a handful of games in his first three seasons on the Devils list but then in his fourth season in 2017 he has flourished to such an extent that he is averaging 98 points and was selected in the forward line of the Vic/Tas State of Origin team. My decision to select a project player ruck has been a success, however it has taken two attempts and only started to improve my ‘best 15’ three and a half seasons after I implemented this strategy. There has been some talk about limiting the number of rucks an ORFFA club can have on their list which I am opposed to. The strategy that ORFFA clubs use for the ruck division varies greatly and the number of rucks on a list has ranged from 1 to five or maybe even six. Whilst the Cradle Mountain ruck division is well placed long-term with their four ruck eligible players in Nankervis, Roughead, Boyd and English, there could be cases where an ORFFA club has two older rucks and decide to hedge their bets and pick two project-player rucks giving them a total of four ruck eligible players. It was just over a season ago that the Devils had four ruck eligible players and the only one getting a regular game AFL was Roughead, with Nankervis, West and Spencer usually playing in their respective state-leagues. If an ORFFA club wants to improve their ruck division there are several ways to do it, trade, draft a project ruck or even draft a player you expect to gain ruck eligibility in the future. The cost of recruiting a ruck or rucks might be greater than a coach wants to pay however I would say that the cost of not implementing a long-term plan with your ruck division is even greater. One thing I have learnt competing in the ORFFA is that the ruck division certainly carries far more importance than being 1/13th of your starting line-up which equates to 7.69%. As we have all seen, not having an adequate ruck can play a critical role in derailing a premiership attempt, and of the four positional lines the keeper element almost certainly becomes most important for the ruck division.
Interesting topic and I enjoyed your insights. I recently drafted Oscar McInerney in the ORFFL MSD. He is unlikely to play a game at the Lions this year behind Stef and Archie, but if he continues his form in the NEAFL I figured he will be hot property in the 2018 PSD (see Archie Smith this year), so I thought I would delist my 26th player and take the chance that he kicks on. If not, no loss I guess. We all seem so willing to pay a premium for rucks and so many have been burnt chasing the future Dean Cox or Aaron Sandilands. I have somehow managed to get by with my rucks so far. I originally drafted Hamish Macintosh in the inaugural ORFFL draft, which proved to be a flop. I also picked up Jonathon Giles late in the draft, and he was my No.1 ruck for a number of years. Not great but serviceable. After a number of failed trade attempts (hi @port_leschenault) I decided I wasn't willing to pay the premium at the trade table and went to the draft. I jumped at the chance to pick up the de-listed Paddy Ryder in the 2016 PSD, even though he didn't play a game all year. My 2016 ruck was carried admirably by Rory Lobb and the TLP had our most successful year. I thought I was on to a good thing with 2 quality R/F until Rory lost his dual status, which hopefully he will regain at some point. I also rolled the dice in the 2017 PSD on Darcy Cameron who despite some positive signs has not played a game and is now out for the season. Handcuffing rucks from one club is a great idea if you can manage it, although it still has its pitfalls as @3n4nsy will attest to. I think the preferred position though is to have 2 premium rucks and that is what I have set out to achieve. Having dual status is a bonus. So at this point in time I am carrying 2 non playing rucks which I am happy to do, in the hope that at least one will kick on. The ORFFL squad rules make it difficult to hold too many project players (we have to delist/trade from 26 down to 20 before the PSD) so I will have some hard decisions at de-listment time. So hopefully Paddy can stay fit, not get suspended, and carry the TLP to the ORFFL premiership.