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2010 – Open for Bidness.

February 8th, 2010

Fo. Shizzle.

Alright guys, the 2010 stats are up and running. Now, that doesn’t mean that development isn’t still going on. (Particularly in the back end to speed things up), so if things go funny, let me know.

Right now, I’m in the process of feeding new columns and data into the place, so this is a good chance to ask for any kind of information to be onscreen that currently isn’t. A short list of the stuff that I’ll be adding is: highest_salary, lowest_salary, medium_salary, std_dev as well as an assortment of average agaisnt statistics.

So let me know if there’s anything you would like!

Now, because we’ve clicked over to the new year, I’ve reset the Donor list (oh noes!), which as with last year, I didn’t reset those who gave more than $20 last year (cause damn, that’s generous!)

So if you want to get back on it- hit that little donate button up there and give til it hurts! It’s all going to a good cause. (The keep TS running with Beer and Internet monies fund.)

Now, onto the Leagues. We’ve filled one league and have started on another. I’ll start handing out the league codes once we get at least two full (so that I can fulfill any conditions people might ask for) – So get in people, sign up your friends, your wives, your dogs, even your “wifes team” – *wink wink* *nudge nudge* We don’t judge here… ;) .

Also, there looks to be a bit of interest in running a $20 league. So we’re gunna run one.

Space is limited because I don’t think we’ll get two (but again, will run two if we get the interest).

If you’re interested in the $20 league, send an email titled “TooSeriousLeagues$20″ to too.serious.team.management@gmail.com with the following information.

Too Serious Leagues $20
Name.
Team name.
Preferred contact email address. (this one is really important if you win!)
Method of payment. (I would prefer you to make a paypal deposit to Too.Serious.Team.Management@gmail.com -link found under the donate tab; or if that’s not possible, a direct bank deposit can be worked out.) Along with any receipt numbers where applicable.
And any special conditions you might have. For example, you want to be in the same league as a few mates. (or yanno, 14 mates if that floats your boat )

I’m thinking for a prize structure, we’ll ditch the 2nd place reward and give it all to 1st.

So what’s that, 1st place: $280.

And just to remind anyone, there is still the $50 and League of League to fill- so get in there peoples!


- Bargain Hunter

February 7th, 2010

As we draw closer to the start of the NAB Cup, and therefore inch closer to the start of the 2010 Dreamteam season, it’s time to dig out the bargain picks for your Dreamteam! Here are some of my bargain picks.

Forwards – Patrick Dangerfield

Patrick is now entering his third season in the AFL system, commonly seen as the ‘breakout ‘year for young midfielders like Patrick. Playing predominantly as a small forward pocketer / HHF for 2009, A move to the Midfield is a likely move for 2010, Making him a perfect selection for 2010.

Adelaide fans rate this kid very highly, and why wouldn’t they, he is a natural. Dangerfield has great speed and skills. With a good pre season, and a little more size to his frame he is the perfect candidate to spend some extra time in the midfield.

Playing 19 games last year plus 2 finals, Patrick averaged 52 points per game. An increase of 15+ points isn’t out of the questions. $232,000 is his 2010 price, and I predict he will be a very popular pick.

Rucks – David Hille

David has been one of the most talked about players this pre-season.  How’s his pre season going? Has he recovered from his ACL knee reconstruction? What will his role in the Essendon team?  These are all very frequently asked questions in fantasy football land at the moment.

There are a lot of doubts hanging over this fellas head at the present time. Hille tore his ACL in Essendon’s round 5 ANZAC Day clash against Collingwood in 2009, and since this, I’m sure a lot of fantasy coaches have had Hille high on their radar.  As with most big men returning from these types of injuries, Hille has made a slow, but steady recovery, and is a race against time to be 100% fit for round 1. From most recent reports, Hille is completing full training, including contact drills. Matthew Knights has stated that they hoped for him to be back within 12 months from the initial injury,  and it’s comments like this that are going to scare off Dreamteam coaches as Hille may not make a return until round 4-5.

Essendon completed their first intra club match just a few days ago, in which Hille played around 50% TOG, spending much of his time up forward but also with a little bit of ruck work around the ground. Will a move to the forward line effect Hille’s scoring potential? It’s hard to say, with the departures of Lloyd and Lucas; Hille would become somewhat of a focal point in the forward line. My view is that Hille will be eased back into it by Essendon starting into the forward line and then a move back into the ruck on a more permanent basis once he picks up the pace of the game and gets full fitness back.

Hille is a risk, of course, but priced at $237,300, and averaging 87 back in 2008, Hille could be one of the bargain buys of 2010.

Midfielders – Mark McVeigh

Throfies McVeigh! Mark had a very disappointing year last year, both on field and off field both of which are no secret. Mark’s 2009 season was dogged by ongoing injuries that he could never get over 100%, and when he did finally get back on the park, his form let him down greatly. All this was evident in his DT performance as well, only managing 12 games for an average of 60 points.

Thus far his 2010 pre season, by all reports has been rock solid. Flying on the track without a hiccup as yet. In a recent interview an Essendon official stated that he was 4-5Kgs lighter this season, so he is putting in the hard yards on the track.

Durability is the concern for Mark, whilst also being injury prone throughout the years; he has also shown he has a tenancy to throw a punch of two. In the past two seasons, Mark has only managed 16 out of 42 matches.

Averaging 89 and 80 in 2009 and 2008 respectively, he has shown that he can accumulate the pill. If he manages to put it all together in 2010, both on and off field he could be a very hand pickup at $268,400.

Defenders – Nick Malceski

It’s hard to say what 2010 holds for Nick, but it should be a lot better than what 2009 did. After being the first AFL player to have the new ACL knee reconstruction procedure, Nick wasn’t the play he once was. As is common with most players returning from Knee reconstructions Nick found it hard to pick up the pace of the game again, get full confidence, and cement his place back into the Swans best 22.

In 2007, Nick played 23 games averaging 87 points running of the HBF flank, so there is definitely room for improvement off his 55 point average in 2009.

Can he cement his spot back in the Swans best 22 on the HBF? With the return of Kennelly in 2010, and Mattner also playing a similar position there is a danger that Malceski may lose his spot if his form drops.  The other worry is if he can’t regain full confidence and re capture that blistering form of 2007, but now, almost 2 years after the reco, reports from the club say that his is fit and firing on the track.

There are a few other players around his price range in the backline that come with similar risks and doubts, but at Malceski’s price, he is worth a punt.


Too Serious SuperCoach Leagues

February 4th, 2010

Alright, I was going to wait til I had finally finished wiring TS up for the 2010 season, but there have been too many inquiries to hold off anymore.

So without further ado, allow me to officially open the Too Serious SuperCoach Leagues.

After last year, we learnt a few lessons, so things are going to be a little different this year.

Firstly, we are going to have a TooSerious administrator in each league that won’t be eligible for prizes (So each comp will be out of 15.)

Secondly, we learnt that Paypal takes their cut on payment both ways, so I’m gunna sift a little ($3.33) off the top to cover the admin costs. I hope everyone is cool with that.

And thirdly, the GF winner won’t be getting a cash prize. They will be getting a mystery prize which hasn’t been figured out yet. It could be something good, might just be a t-shirt, possibly a pack of pringles. Who knows, does anyone want to sponsor these things? Because we would love to give a shout out to your business throughout the season.

So, the details are as follows:
Entry fee: $50

1st prize based on overall ranking: $600
2nd prize based on overall ranking: $100
Grand final winner: Mystery prize

In addition to that, the boys over at Your SuperCoach Coach are trying to put together a league of leagues competition. currently the details are pretty sketchy, but the gist of it will be Elite leagues, brought together from the various SuperCoach sites off the web, competing against each other for both site-pride, and to scoop up the total cash prize pool. Tentatively, the entry fee for a league will be $250, so I’m thinking a $10 entrance fee, with me picking up the rest sounds fair.

So, how to enter?

Firstly the TooSerious leagues.

I will need you to send an email to too.serious.team.management@gmail.com with the title “TooSeriousLeagues” and following information.

Too Serious Leagues
Name.
Team name.
Preferred contact email address. (this one is really important if you win!)
Method of payment. (I would prefer you to make a paypal deposit to Too.Serious.Team.Management@gmail.com -link found under the donate tab; or if that’s not possible, a direct bank deposit can be worked out.) Along with any receipt numbers where applicable.
And any special conditions you might have. For example, you want to be in the same league as a few mates. (or yanno, 14 mates if that floats your boat ;) )

If you would like to register your interest in the league of leagues, I will need you to send an email to too.serious.team.management@gmail.com with the title “TooSeriousLeagueOfLeagues” and following information.

Too Serious League Of Leagues
Name.
Team name.
Preferred contact email address. (this one is really important if we win!)
Your SuperCoach rankings over the last two or three years- which ever make you look better. (Because one year doesn’t make or break a SuperCoach career!)

Last year, these leagues were a roaring success with many people applying too late to make an extra league. So get in early so you don’t miss out. These leagues are fast becoming the premium way to play SuperCoach and it’s a whole lot of fun for everyone involved.

And now to make a long post even longer, we have one last piece of news.

TooSerious has got a new poster on board. A regular over at the BigFooty forums, Hirdy_5. Or Hirdy as I like to call him. A poster with an excellent knowledge of everything fantasy football, I’m sure he’ll make an excellent addition to the TooSerious team.


MPP Insurance – Peace of mind for about $269k

February 2nd, 2010

OK we are still thinking through the whole Multi Positional Players (MPP) thing.  And I’m sure that people still need some rock solid examples to make their thoughts gel.  I’m sure I do.

First let’s get a few assumptions out of the way early.  I’m happy to debate them.

1) You won’t win just because you put a few MPPs in your team.
2) You won’t win if you completely ignore MPPs through the entire competition - flexibility alone of players will be worth at least 1000 points which no-one (not even Chris) can afford to give up to his opponents.
3) The best value MPPs may never even play a match.
4) Not thinking before you lace a team with MPPs is the same as picking a team of players in the 350k range – will give you a quite easy wooden spoon in a competitive league.  This includes picking all MPPs in the same line so you cannot substitute them.
5) Thinking about MPPs is like thinking about cash-cow trades.  Two is the minimum to get the job done.
6) It doesn’t matter (much) that Mitch Farmer is the lowest price MPP in the MID-DEF category at over the 150k mark.

Now I hear you asking where’s that Peace of Mind?  And for only $269k.  You can’t get much for that, only Ladson and a bit of change.

Peace of Mind comes in the most unlikely of sources: Dylan McNeil, Matthew Lobbe and Jack Weston.  Combined, they cost 269k and look innocuous.  It would not shock me if we see under 15 games between the three of them this year.   But that doesn’t mean you don’t pick them in your team.  Walesy has tried to make this look easy and I’m not sure if everyone here understands, but I’m going to be simple and hopefully effective in this demonstration.  (Salesman’s note though – buyer beware)

McNeil is the gutsy FOR9, Lobbe is the much-maligned RUC4 and Weston is the cursory DEF9.

Combine these three players with a few more for good measure – and keeping with the value theme – we will add to them a nucleus of: Waite (F), Pavlich (M) and Tippett (F) – three Supercoach favourites over the past few years.  Finally we will add an assumption of a solid MID7 who at the moment we will bestow on Morabito, the player who becomes the supersub in each injury situation.

Using the normal notation of bracketed interchange I will give you some scenarios.

1) STARTUP
DEF: (Weston)
MID: Pavlich (Morabito)
RUC: (Lobbe)
FWD: Waite, Tippett (McNeil)

2) FWD gets Injured (let’s say Franklin)
DEF: (Weston)
MID: Morabito (McNeil)
RUC: (Lobbe)
FWD: Waite, Tippett, Pavlich

3) FWD gets Injured (this time it’s Waite – but it could have been Tippett)
DEF: (Weston)
MID: Morabito (McNeil)
RUC: (Lobbe)
FWD: Tippett, Pavlich (Waite)

4) MID gets Injured (let’s say Steven Seagal Judd)
DEF: (Weston)
MID: Pavlich, Morabito
RUC: (Lobbe)
FWD: Waite, Tippett (McNeil)

5) DEF gets Injured (let’s say Heater has another bender)
DEF: Waite
MID: Morabito (McNeil)
RUC: (Lobbe)
FWD: Pavlich, Tippett (Weston)

6) RUC gets Injured (Lurch walks into a door)
DEF: (Weston)
MID: Morabito (McNeil)
RUC: Tippett
FWD: Pavlich, Waite (Lobbe)

In all cases the Supersub comes in and does his job, and the team does not miss a beat.   It’s like playing with 23 in the team when you have these 3 rookies in place “for Peace of Mind”.

Thoughts?


Supercoach is open!

January 31st, 2010

Looks like it’s open

Mah team is in! I’m expecting a million changes between now and 52 days. :)

Interesting to see the price of the rookies. Things are looking good.

Though it doesn’t look like the eliminator made it across, nor did the multi-positioning stuff.

Ah well, I gotta crash, but I’ll put this here to start discussion. :)


Supercoach- 1st of Feb.

January 27th, 2010

It’s official. Supercoach is opening the same time as DT this year.

February the First. That’s right- only 5 more sleeps.

I for one am excited! I can’t wait to see what new tricks they’ve got up their sleeves.

(Though I have to ask- did anyone else get a 5 minute TAC commercial sent to them in the email? Wipe off five peoples.)


Intra-club matches

January 27th, 2010

Looks like reports of the first intra-club match are coming out of Tiger town.

I myself usually find these sessions to be a fantastic indicator as to which rookies will make it through their NAB cup games and into the season proper, so I’ll be trying to track them as the pre-season goes on. If anyone hears any reports that I miss, give me a shout ok?

Anyways, the teams were Best availiable vs The rest.

The yellow team consisted of the following:

B: Edwards, Post, Rance
HB: Newman, Moore, Tambling
C: McMahon, Deledio, Cousins
HF: Hislop, Riewoldt, Taylor
F: Morton, Polak, Polo
R: Graham, Thomson, Martin

With Graham, Browne and Vickery rotating through the rucks on both teams.

While it’s great to see Martin starting right in the guts, you’ll need to remember the following players weren’t participating: Jackson, Cotchin, Foley, McGuane, Simmonds, Nason, Griffiths and Roberts.

But still, the boy is boding well for a round 1 start and is doing everything that could be expected of him, so lock him in!

(ps- A big shout out to RT off BigFooty- quality work man.)


So, my prospectus came today…

January 25th, 2010

And boy am I a happy man.

I don’t see myself putting this thing down for a while- and plan on digging every last ounce of knowledge out of this lengthy tome.

Did you know, that Cyril Rioli is the best kick in the AFL?

Also, a polish- being part of the No Passenger group on Big Footy, I can find no way to say this without feeling like a knob for stroking my own ego. But I’ve got to say, it is a fantastic read. From team selection strategies, to trading, Injury management and captain selection strategies, the boys have done an outstanding job.

That, combined with the stats and freako reviews, makes it an easy purchase for this time of year.

So what are you waiting for? :D

(or yanno, if you want to ask a question in the comments, I’m more than happy to “answer” it for you. From player positions to Freako reviews.)


Ending the year well- it’s effect on the following year.

January 19th, 2010

In 2008, 59 players averaged at least 10 more per game in their last 6 games of the season than they did for the entire season.

Of those, 15 players went on to improve their average by 10ppg or more in 2009. Of those, we find the following.

six were qualified defenders.
Duffield, Gilbert, Goddard, Goldsack, Maxwell and LRT.
*Though Goddard scored a move to the midfield.

Two were Forwards
Garland and Davis
*Though Davis scored a move to the midfield.

One was a Ruck – The big Kreuzer.

And the other 6 were mids

Mackay, Gibbs, Selwood, Lewis, Murphy and Morton.

So, why is it important? Because when you sum up every player that improved their average by 10 or more last year (and played at least 10 games), you’ll find a quarter of them coming from that 15.

Also consider though, out of the [b]thirty[/b] players who increased their average by 18 or more last year, only 6 of them came from the above 2008 list so take the following list with the neccessary pinch of salt.

(Just as an aside though, the 2008 finishing average distribution for the best average improvers of 09 went as follows.
50-60: 13
60-70: 10
70-80: 5
80-90: 0
90+: 2 (Which shows how important finding this years Montagna and Swan is! – interesting to note that neither of these players were in the above list.)

This saw a trend away from the year before where the majority of value came from the 60-80 bracket of players.)

So, who are the alumini for 2009, who brought their 2009 season home with a bang?

Name Pos Player Type Pre 15 Ave Games Post 15 Ave g ave Pre Diff Post Diff Swing in Averages
Ricky Petterd DEF Utility-Med 61.77 13 93.25 4 65.00 -3.23 28.25 31.48
Mark LeCras FWD Fwd-Med-Gen 74.87 15 108.33 6 84.00 -9.13 24.33 33.47
Travis Cloke FWD Fwd-Tall-Key 62.77 13 97.17 6 74.00 -11.23 23.17 34.40
Brett Deledio FWD Utility-Med 95.13 16 125.50 6 103.00 -7.88 22.50 30.38
Scott D. Thompson DEF Def-Tall-Gen 72.88 16 102.00 6 81.00 -8.13 21.00 29.13
Ashley McGrath DEF Fwd-Med-Gen 65.81 16 92.83 6 73.00 -7.19 19.83 27.02
Heath Grundy DEF Utility-Tall 63.38 16 89.33 6 70.00 -6.63 19.33 25.96
Clint Bartram DEF Fwd-Med-Key 51.20 10 80.20 5 61.00 -9.80 19.20 29.00
Lynden Dunn MID Fwd-Tall-Gen 59.50 8 91.00 5 72.00 -12.50 19.00 31.50
James McDonald MID Mid-Med-In 64.83 12 92.67 6 74.00 -9.17 18.67 27.83
Shannon Hurn DEF Def-Med-Gen 86.56 16 111.50 6 93.00 -6.44 18.50 24.94
Tom Swift MID Mid-Tall-In 31.25 4 76.83 6 59.00 -27.75 17.83 45.58
Todd Goldstein RUC Ruckman-Tall 34.29 7 67.83 6 50.00 -15.71 17.83 33.55
Michael Doughty DEF Mid-Small-Out 83.69 16 107.67 6 90.00 -6.31 17.67 23.98
Bernie Vince MID Fwd-Med-Gen 91.19 16 115.50 6 98.00 -6.81 17.50 24.31
Andrew McLeod DEF Def-Med-Gen 72.31 16 96.17 6 79.00 -6.69 17.17 23.85
Mitch Clark FWD Fwd-Tall-Key 87.38 16 110.83 6 94.00 -6.63 16.83 23.46
Matthew Bate FWD Mid-Med-In 70.47 15 92.80 5 76.00 -5.53 16.80 22.33
Tom Harley DEF Def-Tall-Key 52.86 7 78.75 4 62.00 -9.14 16.75 25.89
Michael Osborne FWD Utility-Small 56.42 12 79.60 5 63.00 -6.58 16.60 23.18
Jarred Moore FWD Mid-Small-In 62.18 11 85.40 5 69.00 -6.82 16.40 23.22
Bryce Gibbs MID Mid-Med-In 101.25 16 122.50 6 107.00 -5.75 15.50 21.25
Sam Power MID Def-Med-Gen 64.92 13 84.00 4 69.00 -4.08 15.00 19.08
Jason Blake DEF Utility-Tall 70.00 16 89.83 6 75.00 -5.00 14.83 19.83
Heath Shaw DEF Def-Med-Gen 87.17 12 109.83 6 95.00 -7.83 14.83 22.67
Callan Ward MID Utility-Med 61.62 13 82.33 6 68.00 -6.38 14.33 20.72
Tayte Pears DEF Def-Tall-Key 61.19 16 80.83 6 67.00 -5.81 13.83 19.65
Henry Slattery MID Mid-Med-In 55.93 14 74.33 6 61.00 -5.07 13.33 18.40
Simon Goodwin FWD Mid-Med-In 98.38 13 117.33 6 104.00 -5.62 13.33 18.95
Ben McEvoy RUC Ruckman-Tall 33.29 7 54.25 4 41.00 -7.71 13.25 20.96
Ivan Maric RUC Ruckman-Tall 48.00 12 67.00 6 54.00 -6.00 13.00 19.00
Jarrod Harbrow FWD Fwd-Small-Gen 78.50 14 97.00 6 84.00 -5.50 13.00 18.50
Corey Enright DEF Mid-Med-Out 92.81 16 110.83 6 98.00 -5.19 12.83 18.02
Beau Dowler FWD Fwd-Tall-Key 57.11 9 74.50 4 62.00 -4.89 12.50 17.39
Brad Symes DEF Def-Med-Gen 73.08 12 91.33 6 79.00 -5.92 12.33 18.25
Nick Suban DEF Def-Med-Gen 52.75 16 70.17 6 58.00 -5.25 12.17 17.42
Adam Goodes MID Mid-Tall-In 109.94 16 126.00 6 114.00 -4.06 12.00 16.06
Colin Sylvia FWD Fwd-Med-Gen 86.69 13 103.00 4 91.00 -4.31 12.00 16.31
Andrew Swallow MID Mid-Med-In 94.25 16 110.83 6 99.00 -4.75 11.83 16.58
Nathan Jones MID Mid-Small-In 70.80 15 86.80 5 75.00 -4.20 11.80 16.00
Brent Harvey FWD Mid-Small-Out 89.75 8 99.67 6 88.00 1.75 11.67 9.92
Lance Franklin FWD Fwd-Tall-Key 84.19 16 99.60 5 88.00 -3.81 11.60 15.41
Chance Bateman MID Mid-Small-Out 76.81 16 92.50 6 81.00 -4.19 11.50 15.69
Dean Brogan RUC Ruckman-Tall 73.20 15 88.40 5 77.00 -3.80 11.40 15.20
Paul Johnson RUC Ruckman-Tall 56.23 13 71.40 5 60.00 -3.77 11.40 15.17
Heath Scotland DEF Mid-Med-Out 86.60 10 104.33 6 93.00 -6.40 11.33 17.73
Leigh Brown DEF Def-Tall-Key 51.07 15 66.20 5 55.00 -3.93 11.20 15.13
Scott Harding MID Mid-Med-In 41.10 10 56.00 4 45.00 -3.90 11.00 14.90
John Anthony FWD Def-Tall-Key 70.67 15 86.00 6 75.00 -4.33 11.00 15.33
Mark McVeigh MID Mid-Med-Out 56.00 6 74.60 5 64.00 -8.00 10.60 18.60
James Frawley DEF Def-Tall-Gen 59.00 15 72.40 5 62.00 -3.00 10.40 13.40
Nathan Eagleton MID Mid-Small-Out 67.63 16 81.00 6 71.00 -3.38 10.00 13.38
Justin Sherman MID Mid-Med-Out 87.25 16 101.00 6 91.00 -3.75 10.00 13.75

So, what does this all mean? Maybe nothing- I’m hear to provide the stats, but I would love to hear peoples thoughts on them. Particularly the huge swing in Tom Swift!.


Sorry, got nothing much to add right now…

January 18th, 2010

But the comments on that last post have switched off, so I figure will get it back up here.

Progress in updating the site for all the Oh10 new features is coming along very slowly. Not helped by my laptop deciding that it doesn’t want to turn on anymore.

But if things just stop working for no good reason in the not-too-distant future, you’ll know why.

Also, I hear that DT is supposed to be opening in 2 weeks. (Feb 1.) and pre-registration, with additional prizes is already open.

I guess DT is trying to catch up for the ground lost in the 08 schamozzle.