As we draw closer to the start of the NAB Cup, and therefore inch closer to the start of the 2010 Dreamteam season, it’s time to dig out the bargain picks for your Dreamteam! Here are some of my bargain picks.

Forwards – Patrick Dangerfield

Patrick is now entering his third season in the AFL system, commonly seen as the ‘breakout ‘year for young midfielders like Patrick. Playing predominantly as a small forward pocketer / HHF for 2009, A move to the Midfield is a likely move for 2010, Making him a perfect selection for 2010.

Adelaide fans rate this kid very highly, and why wouldn’t they, he is a natural. Dangerfield has great speed and skills. With a good pre season, and a little more size to his frame he is the perfect candidate to spend some extra time in the midfield.

Playing 19 games last year plus 2 finals, Patrick averaged 52 points per game. An increase of 15+ points isn’t out of the questions. $232,000 is his 2010 price, and I predict he will be a very popular pick.

Rucks – David Hille

David has been one of the most talked about players this pre-season.  How’s his pre season going? Has he recovered from his ACL knee reconstruction? What will his role in the Essendon team?  These are all very frequently asked questions in fantasy football land at the moment.

There are a lot of doubts hanging over this fellas head at the present time. Hille tore his ACL in Essendon’s round 5 ANZAC Day clash against Collingwood in 2009, and since this, I’m sure a lot of fantasy coaches have had Hille high on their radar.  As with most big men returning from these types of injuries, Hille has made a slow, but steady recovery, and is a race against time to be 100% fit for round 1. From most recent reports, Hille is completing full training, including contact drills. Matthew Knights has stated that they hoped for him to be back within 12 months from the initial injury,  and it’s comments like this that are going to scare off Dreamteam coaches as Hille may not make a return until round 4-5.

Essendon completed their first intra club match just a few days ago, in which Hille played around 50% TOG, spending much of his time up forward but also with a little bit of ruck work around the ground. Will a move to the forward line effect Hille’s scoring potential? It’s hard to say, with the departures of Lloyd and Lucas; Hille would become somewhat of a focal point in the forward line. My view is that Hille will be eased back into it by Essendon starting into the forward line and then a move back into the ruck on a more permanent basis once he picks up the pace of the game and gets full fitness back.

Hille is a risk, of course, but priced at $237,300, and averaging 87 back in 2008, Hille could be one of the bargain buys of 2010.

Midfielders – Mark McVeigh

Throfies McVeigh! Mark had a very disappointing year last year, both on field and off field both of which are no secret. Mark’s 2009 season was dogged by ongoing injuries that he could never get over 100%, and when he did finally get back on the park, his form let him down greatly. All this was evident in his DT performance as well, only managing 12 games for an average of 60 points.

Thus far his 2010 pre season, by all reports has been rock solid. Flying on the track without a hiccup as yet. In a recent interview an Essendon official stated that he was 4-5Kgs lighter this season, so he is putting in the hard yards on the track.

Durability is the concern for Mark, whilst also being injury prone throughout the years; he has also shown he has a tenancy to throw a punch of two. In the past two seasons, Mark has only managed 16 out of 42 matches.

Averaging 89 and 80 in 2009 and 2008 respectively, he has shown that he can accumulate the pill. If he manages to put it all together in 2010, both on and off field he could be a very hand pickup at $268,400.

Defenders – Nick Malceski

It’s hard to say what 2010 holds for Nick, but it should be a lot better than what 2009 did. After being the first AFL player to have the new ACL knee reconstruction procedure, Nick wasn’t the play he once was. As is common with most players returning from Knee reconstructions Nick found it hard to pick up the pace of the game again, get full confidence, and cement his place back into the Swans best 22.

In 2007, Nick played 23 games averaging 87 points running of the HBF flank, so there is definitely room for improvement off his 55 point average in 2009.

Can he cement his spot back in the Swans best 22 on the HBF? With the return of Kennelly in 2010, and Mattner also playing a similar position there is a danger that Malceski may lose his spot if his form drops.  The other worry is if he can’t regain full confidence and re capture that blistering form of 2007, but now, almost 2 years after the reco, reports from the club say that his is fit and firing on the track.

There are a few other players around his price range in the backline that come with similar risks and doubts, but at Malceski’s price, he is worth a punt.

Sorry Walesy for bumping the EPL.  If you want to enjoy that comp: http://tooserious.net/?p=600

But it’s now crunch time and time for some Best Buys.   Keep your eyes out for selection issues this week.  Chapman and Ballantyne are already scratchings, and with players like ROK and Montagna also under the gun, it’s going to be an all important selection session tomorrow night, particularly for Comp leaders (and players like Chris and Woody).

My one piece of advice is try to get a playing emergency as even when players are selected they are no certainties to play – they can be late withdrawals.

Anyway, on with the show:

No use cash cowing unless you have 5 trades, maybe if you have 4 and some cover.  So I’m just going to put two columns this time – “If Money is no object” and “Best Value”.  All should be aiming to get 100 points this week or more – all these guys are capable of that.

DEF
If Money is no object:
1) Goddard – the best defender bar none
2) H.Shaw – in ripping form, not getting the tags thanks to Toovey / role clarification.
3) Broughton – why would you have not got him at 83k?
4) Enright – on a purple patch
5) Hodge – because he’s Hodge

Best Value:
1) Drummond (427500) – paper thin hamstrings but no better kick in the league.  Love watching him play – his kicks travel twice as quick as others.
2) Newman (463100) – generally solid.  No touches, but loved by Champion Data
3) Lockyer (434100) – but does better in Pie defeats…?
4) S Fisher (398200) – could still turn it on with Gilbert missing a bit of footy
5) Grimes (433400) – thought he was gone…but he’s BAAACK

MID
If Money is no object:
1) Ablett – cheapest he will ever be, will eat Carlton up
2) Montagna – the best of the Saints – buyer beware though – COULD BE INJURED!
3) Swan – the real deal this year, though I’d prefer him after the Crows game
4) NDS/Hayes – can’t split them.  Saints have a cruisy run.  Get on board toot toot.
5) Selwood – rich vein of form (and not screwed by CD like Bartel is in 2009)

Best Value:
1) Pendlebury (468500) – still great value after huge scores on return
2) J Bolton (469300) – amazingly averages close to Pendles at similar price – but tough run for Swans means buyer beware
3) Sewell (529900) – looks value for Sewell
4) Judd (525700) – low for Juddy but Hello Paddlepop Lion this week (LING)
5) Corey (518400) – but could be Hello Fev is Bomber Thompson is to be believed

FWD
If Money is no object:
* Steering clear of injuries or rumours of injuries
1) Riewoldt – I do this every year
2) Brown – I do this every year
3) Davis – nice run home
4) Goodwin – a great player SC-wise and he’s value too
5) Didak – when he is good he is very very good

Best Value:
* Apart from Goodwin!
1) Pavlich (463300) – super value, back to form – warning Geelong Rd22
2) Harvey (443700) – quality mid assigned as a forward in SC for an unknown reason
3) Davey (406800) – should get some points – assume no injury setbacks
4) Thomas (391700) – can’t believe I’m writing this, but my boy has come good – FINALLY!!!!
5) Franklin (473000)- ditto to the above!

RUC
Only the best for the Rucks – too few fit ones left
1) Sandilands – lovely soft run
2) McIntosh
3) Jolly
4) Clark – harder run home
5) Petrie

OK it’s time for some Best Buys.  It’s almost finals time, with 2 rounds to get your teams in shape for the run home.  If you need to trade to get into the finals, then of course do so, but otherwise, it’s selective trading that will make all the difference come Prelim/Grand Final Day.

Please refer to the draw for SC finals.  It’s a real important consideration:

OK – now for the Best Buys:

 DEF
Rookie – Pearce (145500), Silvester (167700), Williams (191700)
Pearce is a Docker who have been great value defenders.  Suckatash is doing well and Williams has been earmarked as a KP Doggie for so long, surely not bad value at the price.
Midrange – Drummond (417300), Lockyer (418400), S Fisher (396300)
Great value here for consistent players.  Lockyer/Fisher on the nose recently but have the potential to do far more.
Premium – Goddard (545000), Newman (455300) , Hodge (534100)
All class here if you want an upgrade.

MID
Rookie – Adams (94200), McGinnity (94200), Redden (94200)
All 3 got a game and looked ok on the weekend.  For a cash cow target, you could do far worse.  But who has trades for cash cows now?
Midrange – Pendlebury (396500), Moloney (440600), Ray (406000)
Pendlebury is today’s bargain, tomorrow’s “ship has sailed”.  Refer to Hodge as a reasonably comparable example.
Premium – Sewell (551500), J Selwood (510300), Montagna (588400)
I’d be getting a bit more coin and going for a Saints midfielder if I could.  Hayes in a few weeks could be the best option.

FWD
Rookie – Ballantyne (154500), Schoenmakers (195000), Yarran (181300)
A bit pricey, but all 3 should get a regular run from here on in.  You’d think…
Midrange – Goodwin (433500), Franklin (387100), Harvey (406700)
Three players who just struck form over the last few after injury or poor form.  A risk but worth taking if you want a low upgrade.
Premium – Riewoldt (550000), J Brown (507700), Clark (509800)
Roo and Brown the two standouts here, as always.  Not too many other premium options outside of the unaffordable ROK/Chappy, and Didak who will come down for finals (can get scragged).  Davis has gone off the boil a touch as well but is not bad value in the 400s.

RUC
Rookie – Clarke (175300), Goldstein (171200), Sellar (100200)
Lots in the low 200s – technically midrange, but can be brought in as cover.
Midrange – McIntosh (408300), Jolly (447700), Petrie (424400)
Value and reliability here.
Premium – Clark (509800), Tippett (460800), Sandilands/MIA (558100)
I’d look elsewhere as the season hots up, can’t see Clark/Tippett keeping it up.

More best buys for people who need to trade. Once again, I’m going to stress-I think you need at least 3 trades for finals, preferably 4. On the other hand, Adcock and Cox are looking certain to be traded from a lot of sides, while there are a couple of other bargains around.

Defenders

Rookie

1. Michael Hurley (154,200)
2. Jayden Post (94,200)
3. Adam Hartlett (165,500)

Hurley by far the best option here-he’s a star.(only a little biased) Post has also been impressive for the Tigers.

Midrangers

1. Tarkyn Lockyer (431,900)
2. Sam Fisher(384,800)
3. Lindsay Gilbee (420,000)

Lockyer has been a defensive star this year, while Fisher has got to come good sometime. Also do not pick Toby Thurstans-with Cornes back in the side he will fall.

Premiums

1. Josh Drummond (457,900)
2. Luke Hodge (494,800)
3. Brendan Goddard(543,900)

All Adcock owners will be strongly considering bringing Drummond in (bargain anyone?), while Hodge and Goddard will bring in big scores for finals.

Midfielders

Rookie

1. Leigh Adams (94,200)
2. Pat McGinnity (94200)
3. Michael Walters (94200)

Adams was good on debut and the Roos will play the kids, but don’t pay any more attention here.

Midrangers

1. Scott Pendlebury (401,200)
2. Steven Salopek (385,100)
3. Jason Winderlich (448,300)

Pendlebury is one of the biggest bargains of the year-he was leading the points board at one point! Salopek and Winderlich are looking good after returning from injury.

Premiums

1. Leon Davis (496,900)
2. Adam Goodes (529,400)
3. Matthew Boyd (471,200)

All are stars here who will deliver in finals. Also look at Hodge, and Bartel in a couple of weeks is looking juicy for finals introduction.

Rucks

Rookies

1. Mike Pyke (117,300)
2. Zac Clarke (129200)
3. Nick Naitanui (194,300)

At least they’ll play.

Midrangers

1. Hamish McIntosh (405,000)
2. Matthew Kreuzer (372,300)
3. Josh Fraser (448,600)
4. Mark Jamar (350,400)

A very controversial selection here, and because of the Cox problem I’ve included 4. I think Fraser and H Mac have the runs on the board to be considered, while Jamar can only be picked if you have the trades left to exploit his lower price. Kreuzer v H Mac is the debate at the moment-is 30K really enough to justify picking a second year player, albeit a very good one? I don’t hink it is.

Premiums

1. Darren Jolly (453,600)
2. Drew Petrie (458,700)
3. Aaron Sandilands (558,100)

I’m worried that Sandilands will be sent for surgery or something by the Dockers so they get one of Scully/Trengrove. Jolly’s the best premium.

Forwards

Rookies

1. Hayden Ballantyne (120,400)
2. Simon Hogan (147,500)
3. James Sellar (94,200)

Ballantyne has been a disappointment so far, but at least he’ll play. Hogan was good last week, but his spot is under huge jeopardy with so many stars returning. Sellar…. well, he’s cheap!

Midrangers

1. Brent Harvey (408,700)
2. Lance Franklin (344,800)
3. Jason Akermanis (421,200)

Harvey is a huge risk, but could give a huge payoff. Buddy was back last week, but Duddy has been playing most of the season-which will turn up for finals? Also consider that the Hawks may retire him for the season and prepare for 2010. Aker is the conservative option-I can’t believe I used conservative and Aker in the same sentence….

Premiums

1. Leon Davis (496,600)
2. Nick Riewoldt (545,900)
3. Aaron Davey (472,300)

Davis is a star, while you’re letting your team down if you don’t get Riewoldt.  Davey is a consistent player, but beware the taggers. * Don’t be tempted by the ROK-not only is he extremely expensive, his role is still undetermined with Hall out of the team.

OK here’s the best I can come up with.   Remember to preserve trades where possible, and only go to keepers.

Probably only one massive cash cow can be afforded from here, the rest will have to be strategic upgrades.

Best of luck to you all.   Should be an excellent round of football again, as the battle for the top 4 intensifies.

DEF
Rookie
Silvester (83400) – Now or never if you’re going to pick him.
Hurley (154200) – When he plays 2 in a row; he’s an option.  Surely better than McPhee
McKernan (94200) – Good heritage, but otherwise a graveyard for rookies.  Thank goodness for Grimes/Broughton and to a lesser extent Hill.

Midrange
S Fisher (393300) – Looked amazing first quarter last week.  Maybe getting to the “I can not ignore him any more” price range.  Plays for the Saints which is a blessing and a curse.
Mackie (379900) – Maybe turning a corner.  The ultimate tease.
McPhee (386900)- After bagging him out before, maybe he won’t belt me up if I include him.

Premium
The G Force is in this week…
Gilbert (462600)
Goddard (545800)
Grimes (426200)
All great value…otherwise there are options – The H Team (Hodge, Hurn, Hargrave) or Alfred E Newman.

Chad Cornes and Drummond are great value players who will drop after this round most likely so if you want a premium may be best to wait.

MID
Rookie
The boat will be sailing on a lot of the old favourites.  As you’re really just looking for cheap players to get some coin, here are the best:
Anthony (94200) – Looks a good cheap reliable player
C Garlett (101800) – Cheap and might get a go under the Crock
S Reid (113100) – Has been waiting all year for his chance for Doggies…but competition in that team’s red hot.

Midrange
Moloney (415500) – Churns out the points.  Consistent 80-90s
Prismall (427600) – Can find the footy.
Salopek (374500) – Has been when fit, a SC machine.  Getting fitness and Port have a lovely run home.

Premium
Gibbs (500400) – Now scoring when Carlton lose.  Scary but ruining his chances of being a great cheap selection for SC2010.
J Selwood (507400) – Get him now if you don’t have him.
Bartel (564500) – Just looks ready to rumble.  Best game he’s played for ages in the epic Saints clash.  Tough, hard, using it well.

Pendlebury is the one we’re all waiting for as he remains ready to enter the drop zone again.   Wait on this selection for next week.  You couldn’t see him getting 209 this week, and if he did, you’d be on at 457k anyway!
Montagna in 3 or so weeks could end up a target.  But maybe he’s just dropped his rating ever so slightly and that’s why he would be cheaper.   I’d still want him in my team.

FWD
Rookie
Ballantyne (94200) – Will get a run.  Good prospect, big for a kid.
Jurrah (179500) – Love the Melbourne aborigines.  They will be a force in years to come with Davey, Jurrah, Wonaeamirri.   Change of culture down at Demon land and it’s a good one.
Vickery (162200) – A Richmond tall and given their current ruck stocks, I’d think anyone over 190 cm should get a regular run.

Midrange
Cloke (342600) – Toot toot the boat is leaving the dock.  Get on now or the ship will have sailed.
Mooney (355600) – Cheap cheap for his average.  Brain fades but Geelong’s run home is OK, and he is the main key position forward, and finally last round v Fremantle at Geelong could be a Supercoach GF winner.
Murphy (356100) – A risk for sure, but a great player when going.  Certainly worth the 7th spot in a forward line.

Premium
Davis (511900) – Can go cheaper (so hold off if you can) but with Didak’s improvement may get some easier touches.
Deledio (462100) – Cheap if you don’t have him, he seems good value to me.
Riewoldt (568200) – If you don’t have him, get him.   Lovely run for the Saints (particularly in Supercoach finals) and this guy is the key to it all.  Can’t see the Saints resting him, he seems up for a massive year and is an out-and-out gun.

RUC
Rookie
Clarke (94200) – Because he’s cheap.
Vickery (162200) – Because he’s probably been guaranteed a game under Rawlings.
Naitanui (194300) – Because he’s the most exciting player in the last 10 years at least.

Midrange
Kreuzer (355800) – Worth considering.  Consistent game time.
Koschitzke (398500) – A good option with the Saints SC Finals approaching.
McIntosh (425600) – Has Petrie dulled his effectiveness?

Premium
Sandilands (558100) – Go Lurch, a great player up for another massive week against the Crows.
Fraser (454700) – No hitouts generally except when against the undersized e.g. last week vs Paddy.  Should go OK with Minson/Hudson, Taylor, Clark, Tippett, Kreuzer, Vickery, and only one gun Jolly to come.
Jolly (474900) – Will get All-Australian this year ahead of Cox with Sandilands.  Now back to the value he deserves.

Another week, another lot of Best Buys. It’s a real shame Ballantyne is coming in now, as all trades from here on in should be reserved for upgrades or replacing injured players, like Ziebell. Still, there are some great options to look at.

Defenders

Rookies

1. C Pearce, 83400
2. M Hurley, 154200
3. M Maguire, 162900

Pearce the only option here, though you would have to think Maguire and Hurley are close to games.

Midrange

1. S Gilbert, 410300
2. L Hodge, 430200
3. T Thurstans, 410100

Hodge is a star, but still has some falling to do. I have a feeling I’ll be laughedat for Thurstans, but hes averaging 100 in the Chad Cornes role and may end up being similar to Nick Maxwell. If you missed out on Gilbert before, get on now.(look at the Saints run home!) Also look at Lake, Milburn, Ellis, Pratt and Broughton.

Premium

1. S Fisher, 453200
2. N Bock, 481300
3. B Goddard, 539800

Probably better looking at the midrangers. Fisher is cheap, but Gilbert is better, while Goddard and Bock are super defenders to own, although Hodge may end up scoring more in the next few weeks.

Midfielders

Rookies

1. T Swift, 107400
2. J Davenport, 94200
3. L Anthony, 94200

Stay away until Anthony gets a game. At least Swift is getting a game, though e should be dropped.

Midrangers

1. B Stanton 422300
2. D Kerr 329300
3. B Muston, 206600

Surprisingly few options. Kerr is a smokey, while Muston has a lot of upside to him still.

Premiums

1. N Dal Santo, 552200
2. D Cross, 470800
3. L Davis, 550000

Guns! How did Cross get so cheap, while Dal Santo and Davis could be options for replacing Pendlebury (should probably hold onto him though). Also look at Crossy’s partner in crime Matthew Boyd at 456000, and Luke Power at 480900 is another good bet.

Rucks

Rookies

1. N Naitanui, 169200
2. B McEvoy, 148700
3. M Pyke, 83400

Nic Nats the perfect reserve for Dean Cox- and he looks like a great player too! Ignore the other two unless you are really strapped for cash.

Midrangers

1. D Jolly, 438600
2. J Fraser, 436000
3. M Kreuzer, 393800

Nobody in their right mind should trade Cox, so these should really be ignored too…

Premiums

1. A Sandilands, 536200
2. H McIntosh, 454800
3. D Petrie, 489700

Jolly’s your man.

Forwards

Rookies

1. L Jurrah, 144200
2. J Watts, 174200
3. H Balllantyne, 94200

Imagine Melbourne’s foward line in a few years; Watts, Jurrah and Butcher (possibly). Jurrah looks better than Watts at the moment, though Watts may explode yet. Both should get games at least. We should all wait a couple of weeks on Ballantyne, although I’ll be jumping on if he scores 100 on debut

Midrangers

1. J Brown, 440400
2. J Akermanis, 391200
3. T Cloke,  269300

Get on Brown while you still can. Aker is averaging the most for his price, while Cloke is a risky option if you want to do a straight swap with Ziebell. Keep an eye on how Patrick Veszpremi performs on the weekend too. Franklin should be avoided for a couple more weeks(wait until he looks like a player again).

Premiums

1. Aaron Davey, 466500
2. Steve Johnson, 487700
3. M Pavlich, 507300

All 3 of these are averaging over 100, and are great options. Pavlich is at an extremely low price, while Davey and Johnson are simply awesome in Supercoach and to watch.

Good luck everyone!

Hi all

Nothing against Paddy and Walesy, but it’s time for more thinking reading over lunch.   Very happy for the Bombers that they get Ryder “back”, but even happier that at the moment their ladder position is in double digits again for what the fifth year running    It does appear the top 8 sides from last year and the sides that “are coming” got their act together on the weekend and it was interesting watching.   Now, onto some Best Buys as normal.

These are not always the most in-form players at the price, but they may provide you with ammunition for an assault at the main prize.   Just don’t burn your trades too soon.   With Boomer Harvey maybe back straight after the break, the Cho a possibility later in the year, and other great value options sure to appear, you don’t want to miss them by making a sideways interchange trade for $100k.

I’d reckon somewhere from 7-9 trades will be fine to get home with from here, particularly if your team is set.  Heck, even 6 is probably fine to just make injury/”I drove through Kew on a wet night drunk as a skunk and lied to my coach and my teammates” changes.

Without further ado, here’s the Best Buys for this week:

DEF

Rookie – Grima (156500), Hurley (154200), Pearce (83400)

No value here.  Grima could get games in weakened North outfit.

Midrange – Milburn (395600), Gilbee (404000), H Shaw (420000)

Three great old stagers of the SC game.  Inconsistent but good cheap keepers for those on a strict budget.   Hodge not yet but very soon.

Premium – Newman (502400), Enright (453900), Fisher (482100)

All great value picks.  Ignore at your peril, particularly with Chad out.

MID

Rookie – DeBoer (192100), Sheldon (199500), Muston (186800)

All can score, all fairly costly, but a handy 7 or 8 mid.

Midrange – Stanton (425500), Kerr (343400), Knights (446800)

All have big scores in the past, and are low-priced keepers for a run to finals.

(Only for the budget conscious mind you.)

Premium – Dal Santo (520600), Boyd (469800), Bruce (506600)

NDS – obvious reasons, Boyd still cheap and Bruce as no one else would have him and he is a consistent Demon scorer.

FWD

Rookie – Reid (136400), Watts (174200), Garlett (171100)

Reid a logical replacement for Nathan Brown if he is indeed injured, Watts as the Demons must play him a few games, Garlett a good prospect.

Midrange – J Brown (414300), Fevola (411100), Hawkins (335800)

This is the value zone.  Fev and JB starting to rock the casbar.

Premium – Davey (466200), Brennan (456000), Pavlich (509500)

Pavlich not greatest value until after playing Geelong.  Then giddy up.

RUC

Rookie – McEvoy (150700), Pyke (83400), Spencer (83400)

It’s all about game time and money.  McEvoy will give both.

Midrange – Jolly (427500), Fraser (418500), Koschitzke (427300)

Where the action is.  Good value in Jolly, Fraser and Kosi.

Premium – McIntosh (455000), Clark (450300), Sandilands (520300)

Only 5 in the 450+ range!

Happy trading all – just don’t go too hard – your trades will have to last you the rest of the season – remember that!

Oh yeah it’s time for another week of trading.   First and foremost, some tips for trading:

- Only bring in keepers

- Save some trades for disasters, some have already had them and you will in the next 11 rounds still have more of them, luck won’t miraculously turn unfortunately.

- 8 is the minimum I’d like to surf home with from here-on to win my league.  And you’d want a fairly settled 22 with a few subs with those 8 trades.   Winning the league you may well need 4 trades at Round 18.

Anyway, onto the Best Buys for the week (remember to read them because people asking questions about Ryder this week about whether he was value…c’mon he was top of the Best Buys of course he is value!!)

DEF
Rookie – Broughton (164600), Henderson (183700), Cheney (198100)
Broughton picks himself, the rest are duds.  No value here at all.
Midrange – Ryder (435100), Harding (394600), Enright (448500)
Great value in the midrange now, with more to come in future weeks:
Hodge, Milburn, Gilbert all getting into the low 400s/high 300s
Premium – Newman (490600), Fisher (497700), Goddard (570400)
Though Goddard can go cheaper, he’s not bad value if you want an upgrade target.
The other two – Newman/Fisher are the perfect trade-ins for Chornes.

MID
Rookie – Muston (94200), Sheldon (180800), Swift (94200)
Muston, no one else thanks very much.
Midrange – Power (419700), Cooney (441500), Kerr (343400)
More speculative at this price zone.  Trade in if no other real options.
Premium – Ablett (701700), Dal Santo (515400), Cross (473600)
Given Ablett is a Supercoach freak, this is as low as he goes.
Dal is super-low also for a few wks, and Cross in the past has been SC gold.

FWD
Rookie – Wright (151500), Garlett (142200), Henderson (183700)
Like the look of Wright.  Maybe just too expensive now.
Midrange – Fevola (359700), Brown (414900), Byrnes (413600)
Could almost do a straight Dale Thomas-Fev swap.  That’s how low Fev is at the moment = value!
J Brown is ridiculously low value but giving no return so is a speculative pick at best.  Byrnes just cos all Cats score big.
Premium – Gia’cusa (452700), Davey (485100), O’Keefe (510300)
Gia might just be back.  Davey is cheap and will get cheaper.  ROK still fairly cheap.

RUC
Rookie – Naitanui (169200), McEvoy (150700), Pyke (83400)
The two first two might get a game this week.  Nicknat in great WAFL Form.
Midrange – Jolly (414300), Koschitzke (393100), Clark (410700)
Clark = Ryder on the forward line.  The others are good solid picks.
Premium – Cox (555100), Petrie (473600), McIntosh (474500)
All good picks but you wouldn’t upgrade to them anymore.

Let me know if you agree, or vehemently disagree.

OK it’s a time for some best buys.  I’m putting in a structured blog that maybe one we stick with in the future depending on your feedback.  I will go through each position and give the best buys in three categories: rookie (sub200), midrange (201-449) and premium (450+). 

Needless to say, the best time to trade is after lots of thought on Friday after teams are announced, and if in doubt say NO and cop a zero or emergency!

Without further ado…

DEF
Rookies (sub200)
1) Broughton 83400
2) Grima  94200
3) Greenwood 94200
Comments: Nothing great in defence.  Cheney too expensive to downgrade to and doesn’t get a game.   Better to stick with one of these three who have found potential to get 2 games.   Collier was close, but his BE is pathetic and two years running hasn’t done it for me.  Spudrenko..? No.

Midrange (201-449)
1) Ryder  414200
2) P Burgoyne 417300
3) Grimes  252000
Comments: Ryder is still on the up, P Burgoyne can’t drop much more, and Grimes is still not a bad selection.   Well recommended within the Demons hierarchy and negative Breakeven.  Adcock unlucky to miss – nearing his low point.   Value to be had here with Ryder playing in the ruck now.

Premium (450+)
1) McMahon 451200
2) Maxwell 487200
3) Gilbee 463100
Comments: McMahon and Maxwell are in red hot form.  Whether that is because of the deficiencies in their team’s forward structure or not remains to be seen.  Of the rest, Gilbee is probably the best value, but there are a host of others in the running such as Newman and Birchall still in reach.  Most of the other premiums are too far away and could drop further in weeks to come.

MID
Rookies (sub200)
1) Muston 94200
2) Cockie  154700
3) Sheldon 154500
Comments:  OK really only Muston is value here.  I still reckon wait a week or even two – he will be on the list again next week at the same value, but with less risk if he can get through unscathed.   Cockie and Sheldon are the safe bets who should play fairly regularly from their teams from now on.

Midrange (201-449)
1) Stevens  413200
2) Edwards  414100
3) McGlynn  284800
Comments:  A bit of the old fossils coming out this week.  Stevens is at a fairly low point, and Edwards is a consistent performer.  So long as McGlynn keeps getting a game he will keep rising.   Not so much value here compared to premiums and rookies.

Premium (450+)
1) Cross  495400
2) Boyd  496500
3) Goodes  509100
Comments:  A rare day when you can find Cross and/or Boyd at under 500k.   The good ship Goodes hasn’t sailed yet – he still churns out points and quietly ups his value.  Junior boy is coming next week.  Get your $ ready.

FWD
Rookies (sub200)
1) Wright   94200
2) Cornelius 94200
3) Sidebottom 175900
Comments: Probably the last week you can get onto Sidebottom; will be interesting to see with Didak/Thomas/Medhurst returning if he maintains his spot in the 22.   Wright looks composed at North, and the highly rated Cornelius did well on the weekend, and with holes bigger than Texas in the Brisbane backline, may be having a few more runs.  Apologies to Dick but I think he might get the tap on the shoulder this week.

Midrange (201-449)
1) McGlynn  284400
2) B Johnson 414400
3) Fevola  362600
Comments:  No midrange value to speak of.  Have to include McGlynn the MID-FWD option.  I have to include the old stagers because realistically these two are the only guys in that midrange value capable of getting to 500k.  Big risks for both though.

Premium (450+)
1) Wirrpanda  477200
2) Franklin  469600
3) J Brown  454200
Comments:  All in the 400s with capacity to move to the 500s.  Wirra and Buddy are scoring nicely now, and their ships have just about sailed.  J Brown is a strange candidate – normally logic would suggest he won’t be much lower, but a 153 breakeven makes me think next week, mate (or maybe not even then).

RUC
Rookies (sub200)
1) Hampson 185400
2) Pyke  83400
3) Spencer 83400
Comments:  At least Hampson’s getting a game.  Looks OK.  The rest are pure cash cows who probably won’t play but at least you’ll have cash-in-hand.

Midrange (201-449)
1) Jolly 419800
2) Kreuzer 432600
3) Wood  326700
Comments: Two great ruckmen this season, and the up and comer from Colling-wood who managed to shade Cox on the weekend.  Maybe that will get his season going.  There’s points to be had from all 3 at discounted prices.

Premium (450+)
1) Petrie 476200
2) Cox  562300
3) McIntosh 482800
Comments:  There aren’t many other rucks over 450k, but Petrie is starting to churn the good scores out after a slow start.   Not worth a trade without an injury, but these 3 are the best.

For those with Waite, I’d think about doing just that and NOT trading this week, but as most defences are in a shambles, I’d think seriously about Ryder, Maxwell and McMahon.  Probably Ryder given his changed role.   But also remember Laycock could spoil the party as he returns from injury (Bomber fans shudder).

Best of luck to you’se all.

Don’t you just love Thursdays.  The teams come out, the chance to see if your young gun is in this week from the reserves/VFL (he isn’t), to see if the culprit for last week’s inexplicable loss is gone (he isn’t).

It’s also the day that generally our “friends” at News Limited bring out the Supercoach PDF.  Generally pretty obvious info up the top, and some relatively decent stats at the bottom.   This week’s is at the following link if you haven’t indulged yet: http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/files/supercoach_rd_5.pdf

One of the less noted columns, or probably totally misunderstood is the PER – Price earning ratio, derived by dividing current value by current average.   Keeping things simple for the fans, I will state it simply.   If the PER for a player is $5000 or more, the player is overvalued and likely over the next few weeks to come down.   If the PER is less than $5000 he has more value climbing to do.

Of course it’s nowhere near as precise as Walesy and the TooSerious breakevens.  But it does help you with trends.  Trends in particular like “has my player maxed out”?

Taylor Walker, $4261, maybe very close.

Jared Petrenko $3921, no

Andy Otten, $3484, no

Daniel Rich, $3817, no

 Dayne Beams, $2939, hell no

and so on…you can do the reading yourselves.

What’s also interesting is finding the blue chippers who are $5000 and over.   These are guys who could just be value in the future – a bad/avg round now and they could easy drop.   Or their average doesn’t justify their current high price…and hence if they keep the average for a few rounds, their price will go down.

Check them out with their next few rounds in TS Main Page.   Effectively this is playing the futures market, so it’s NOT for this week.   But keep your eyes open because they are overvalued.  Don’t trade IN this week, that could be a bad move.

Marshmallow Thompson (5181), MAX Power (5053), The Judd (5061), MMcVeigh (6969), Pavlova (5386), Sandi (5212), Bartel/Corey/Chapman/Selwood – all thanks to GAJ obviously, Mitchell (5070), Hodge (5959), Buddylove (5496), the Chad (5338), Anyone from Richmond , Goddard (5146), Roo (5471), Captain Kirk (5310), ROK (5902), Kerr (5232), Gilbee (5233).

Keep it hush hush, and don’t let your mates know, but these players are the guys you will look to upgrade into your midfield and forward line in the next few weeks.

Now…to read some more teams for the round.  Hope your team’s a winner in Round 3 of SC action!