Hi all, sorry I’m a day late.

OK it’s time to do some Best Buys analysis, and once again it’s  a good time to think about how many trades we might need come finals time.  That’s the advice for this week:  I’m thinking that 3 going into R19 is a good number.  Currently I have 5 and I’m planning one this week, and one over the next fortnight.  Then three more for the year.  Of these 5 I can see two sideways, two upgrades and one downgrade.  I have $ in the bank to upgrade this week.  Any less trades and I could not have the opportunity to roll with the punches, any more and I would have probably been in a stuffed position in leagues…well more than I am already (yes TS50 almost season over I admit).

So onto the quick decisions that need to be made by tomorrow evening:
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Nothing like a good Best Buys column to warm you up on a freezing Melbourne morning.  But going by some of the comments, we’ve seen a bit of a view forward of the carnage to come as a long season takes its’ toll on our teams.  Those that travel well, could be doing so with a thin line between success and failure, and that could be something as temporary as rookie form, or lack of injuries.   Even the best coaches have to manage injuries and players having poor form, and it’s interesting to see the faith and lack thereof shown to players on these forums.

Advice for the week…this week I would have to say back your team in.  I wouldn’t be trading other than upgrades or downgrades or long term injuries.  Form is temporary, class is permanent, and if you have a team of classy but out of form players – people like Adam Goodes for example – you just need to do the BonJovi and Keep the Faith.  He could pump out a 150 on the ball this week, you never know.

Now onto the best buys action for the week: (more…)

Hi all.  Will keep it brief, have been a bit sick this week and not able to do much analysis.

Advice for the week:  Keep trading 2 per 3 rounds on average from here if you have about 9 trades left.  Don’t use trades without them being a good upgrade or downgrade.  I’d even keep a trade rather than replacing a medium term injured player if you have cover on the bench.

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OK now we are past the half way mark of the season, and it’s time that the old analogy comes out.  It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon.

The last few rounds have been interesting as some key players have got injuries and suspensions, teams have had to shuffle around, but generally there has been an air of calm.  In the main this year due to a combination of exceptionally reliable substitutes (Maguire, Waters, Nason, Silvagni, Martin, Trengove, Scully, Bastinac, Jetta, Jacobs, Trengove II, Gumbleton, Hitchcock, Podsiadly and Rockliff) and the MPP, we have not seen one of Walesy’s classic CARNAGE round reviews just yet.

I am not a prophet of doom either.  Most teams through smart strategy should have a combination of trades in the locker, MPP coverage and strong polling substitutes.  And so therefore the marathon is becoming a sprint again!  You might find there are some Afrikaan runners who are just sitting off the leaders ready to strike at the Big Muzungo and smash some 2450s in the finals.

Advice for the week: Back your team if in doubt.  I’ve not traded out O’Brien, Dangerfield and Waters for that reason, and have enjoyed a few weeks of breathing space conserving trades and scoring well.  That’s a rare daily double if you ask me.

Now onto the rest of the show!

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OK I am also sorry I have been flat chat getting anything out this week.

So it’s a very simple barebones list of names, then discuss away!

Advice for the week: Plan/ration your trades. Think of trading now as one per week rather than cash cow upgrade. I would think 9 after this round will be sufficient. Anything more than 12 and you have a team that could use improving, and any less than 7 and you are in trouble.

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Good afternoon all.  Time for another instalment of Best Buys.

Advice for the week:
This week I think it’s pertinent to think of the run home for teams.  When you get players in from here you need to consider that you will hold them until the end of the year.  Because we are getting towards mid point of the year, you need to know whether teams are going to be better on the run home due to a better draw.  The flawed AFL fixture means that some teams should have the potential to generate late momentum (Saints, Pies) where others have landmines in their way.  Interestingly Geelong has a fairly difficult run in SC finals.

So – take into account “the next few rounds” in getting a few players in for cheap particularly if they have an OK run home.  But as most of us here are going to be trying to win our leagues, the key rounds to note are 19-22.  I find particularly 19 to set you up (20 the fall back if double chance), 21 is a must as is 22.  Loading up on the wrong teams and player combinations (e.g. Carlton has bogey team Essendon in 19, Richmond in what could be a useless 20, then Geelong in 21 and Freo away in 22) could prove costly.  Be warned and plan ahead.

Now on to the regular items: (more…)

Hi all,
It’s time for some more Best Buy goodness.
I’m sorry I can’t be more expressive this week, but I’m a bit busy, probably getting my team back in shape!

Advice for the week:
There will almost always be bargains up for grabs. Your particular favourite player might not be available at a cheap price, but because we are looking at the same pool of money, and with the development of precocious rookies, for players to keep their value they generally have to score at 9% increases on the average they currently have. With only 3300 up for grabs each week…and no 9% increase on this even over time…it stands to reason that just as some players go up in value, some must go down.

Now for the regular article items: (more…)

Welcome to another edition of the Best Buys

ADVICE FOR THE WEEK
Some timely advice to consider if you want to win overall, or your league. Consider your trades precious, and look to buy low and sell high. This means that it is often more important to time your downgrades right more than upgrades. Downgrades allow you to realise value and net a bargain. Upgrades need to be thought through similarly. I will make it clear, if you want to win, you need to make best use of every dollar, and as such you should avoid paying full price for a premium…or for any player. Due to the cyclical nature of the game, and the 3300 rule, there will almost always be a player who represents value or a bargain. Therefore, bring in bargains for upgrades, not necessarily best player available. If the best player is a bargain too, that’s good and well. An example of this is Brendon Goddard at the moment. The best defender, but is about 50k away from his peak.

On to the rest of the show: (more…)

 
Welcome to TooSerious Best Buys

Round 7 and now it’s time to consider some of the Best Buys as everyone is looking to improve their teams over the next few weeks.

As discussed many times on fantasy footy forums one of the ways to build a good side is to initially select a sample of rookie players and upgrade your starting team once the rookies gain value.

More over the break (more…)

Sorry Walesy for bumping the EPL.  If you want to enjoy that comp: http://tooserious.net/?p=600

But it’s now crunch time and time for some Best Buys.   Keep your eyes out for selection issues this week.  Chapman and Ballantyne are already scratchings, and with players like ROK and Montagna also under the gun, it’s going to be an all important selection session tomorrow night, particularly for Comp leaders (and players like Chris and Woody).

My one piece of advice is try to get a playing emergency as even when players are selected they are no certainties to play – they can be late withdrawals.

Anyway, on with the show:

No use cash cowing unless you have 5 trades, maybe if you have 4 and some cover.  So I’m just going to put two columns this time – “If Money is no object” and “Best Value”.  All should be aiming to get 100 points this week or more – all these guys are capable of that.

DEF
If Money is no object:
1) Goddard – the best defender bar none
2) H.Shaw – in ripping form, not getting the tags thanks to Toovey / role clarification.
3) Broughton – why would you have not got him at 83k?
4) Enright – on a purple patch
5) Hodge – because he’s Hodge

Best Value:
1) Drummond (427500) – paper thin hamstrings but no better kick in the league.  Love watching him play – his kicks travel twice as quick as others.
2) Newman (463100) – generally solid.  No touches, but loved by Champion Data
3) Lockyer (434100) – but does better in Pie defeats…?
4) S Fisher (398200) – could still turn it on with Gilbert missing a bit of footy
5) Grimes (433400) – thought he was gone…but he’s BAAACK

MID
If Money is no object:
1) Ablett – cheapest he will ever be, will eat Carlton up
2) Montagna – the best of the Saints – buyer beware though – COULD BE INJURED!
3) Swan – the real deal this year, though I’d prefer him after the Crows game
4) NDS/Hayes – can’t split them.  Saints have a cruisy run.  Get on board toot toot.
5) Selwood – rich vein of form (and not screwed by CD like Bartel is in 2009)

Best Value:
1) Pendlebury (468500) – still great value after huge scores on return
2) J Bolton (469300) – amazingly averages close to Pendles at similar price – but tough run for Swans means buyer beware
3) Sewell (529900) – looks value for Sewell
4) Judd (525700) – low for Juddy but Hello Paddlepop Lion this week (LING)
5) Corey (518400) – but could be Hello Fev is Bomber Thompson is to be believed

FWD
If Money is no object:
* Steering clear of injuries or rumours of injuries
1) Riewoldt – I do this every year
2) Brown – I do this every year
3) Davis – nice run home
4) Goodwin – a great player SC-wise and he’s value too
5) Didak – when he is good he is very very good

Best Value:
* Apart from Goodwin!
1) Pavlich (463300) – super value, back to form – warning Geelong Rd22
2) Harvey (443700) – quality mid assigned as a forward in SC for an unknown reason
3) Davey (406800) – should get some points – assume no injury setbacks
4) Thomas (391700) – can’t believe I’m writing this, but my boy has come good – FINALLY!!!!
5) Franklin (473000)- ditto to the above!

RUC
Only the best for the Rucks – too few fit ones left
1) Sandilands – lovely soft run
2) McIntosh
3) Jolly
4) Clark – harder run home
5) Petrie