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Archive for October, 2009

The 2010 Draw Analysis

Friday, October 30th, 2009

Hey the draw is out.

Web address: http://www.afl.com.au/fixture/tabid/10586/default.aspx

For what it’s worth I have done an analysis on this.  Best viewed in Comments section as otherwise it clashes with other text…

I calculated each team if they play every other team once (16 for Melbourne, 1 for Geelong.)

Then I added points for all their double up teams (e.g. 16 for Melbourne, 1 for Geelong)

Then I added 8 points for home games vs a team travelling interstate, 4 points for home games vs neutral team.  I also subtracted the reverse for away games.

Here’s the results.  Unsurprisingly despite being given press saying they have the easiest draw, Collingwood and Essendon the Melbourne-based warrior teams have been stitched up.  Though they don’t travel much, they play all the top teams twice and that makes a big difference.  The Pies actually do badly because though they only play 4 interstate, only twice do they play a non-Victorian side in Melbourne – the others they have to play only once and only away (the worst thing possible)

The best draw, well that’s for the Power North Brisbane and Richmond.  Remember this when picking fringe players for your SC team.

So don’t be fooled by media outlets.  This is one of the biggest fallacies about the draw in recent years – that it’s fair or reasonable or anything other than something to give the clubs the most money.  All driven by money, not by fairness.

In 2009, Geelong had a much harder draw than St Kilda and were arguably a better team in H&A last year but the results didn’t show that.  Collingwood had a very soft draw and were overrated coming into finals.  In 2008 Geelong won 21 H&A games but had a remarkably soft draw.  The draw makes a difference, but when September comes around, remember the impact of the draw and this should improve your finals tipping strike rate.

Anyway here’s my analysis for what its worth.  (The games 1-7 below are not in order other than alphabetic.)  Also there is a tiny bug in the results.  Anyone who finds it gets kudos from me.

Last Year 15 games 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 TOT O/A Home (vs i/state) Home (neutral state) Away (neutral state) Away (vs i/state) Differential Overall Draw Factor +/-
Adelaide 5 131 6 14 16 10 15 2 3 66 197 10 1 2 9 4 201 70 10.4
Brisbane 6 130 5 7 1 16 12 11 3 55 185 11 0 1 10 4 189 59 -0.6
Carlton 7 129 6 4 8 14 1 15 11 59 188 4 7 6 5 -4 184 55 -4.6
Collingwood 4 132 7 8 1 9 16 2 3 46 178 2 9 7 4 -8 170 38 -21.6
Essendon 8 128 7 4 1 9 2 11 3 37 165 4 7 8 3 4 169 41 -18.6
Fremantle 14 122 5 7 11 15 2 12 11 63 185 10 1 2 9 4 189 67 7.4
Geelong 1 135 6 7 4 8 9 12 11 57 192 4 7 6 5 -4 188 53 -6.6
Hawthorn 9 127 4 8 1 16 10 12 3 54 181 2 9 8 3 -4 177 50 -9.6
Melbourne 16 120 5 6 4 9 13 10 15 62 182 4 7 7 4 0 182 62 2.4
North Melbourne 13 123 14 16 10 2 12 11 3 68 191 6 5 7 4 8 199 76 16.4
Port Adelaide 10 126 5 9 16 13 15 2 11 71 197 10 1 3 8 8 205 79 19.4
Richmond 15 121 5 7 14 16 10 2 12 66 187 6 5 6 5 4 191 70 10.4
St Kilda 2 134 5 4 8 14 13 10 15 69 203 3 8 5 6 -12 191 57 -2.6
Sydney 12 124 6 14 1 9 13 15 3 61 185 11 0 1 10 4 189 65 5.4
West Coast 11 125 6 7 8 14 1 13 10 59 184 10 1 1 10 0 184 59 -0.6
Western Bulldogs 3 133 5 6 4 8 9 13 12 57 190 3 8 7 4 -4 186 53 -6.6
Higher = Easier

Slight change to the comments – aka- See ya!

Friday, October 16th, 2009

Right, I’ve made my soccer trades, and I’ve locked down the comments.

Technically, you now can only comment if you’ve commented in the past, or something like that… Take THAT spammers!

So, catch you all in a few weeks guys!

Keep soccering it up! :D

And keep thinking about those delistings… who’s gunna be recycled ala Rodan?


My, I’ve been a bad poster recently.

Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

I swear though man, I can explain! It’s quite simple really. This Saturday, I’m getting married.

Then spending the next three weeks honeymooning it up in the UK.

Which will be excellent for the EPL fan in me. I doubt I can talk the missus into coming to any games though! :)

But, that’s not what everyone has been talking about for this past week. It’s been Trade week!

And as we all know, there is no off season. So let’s see what has happened…

IN FROM
Brisbane Amon Buchanan Sydney Swans
Brent Staker West Coast Eagles
Xavier Clarke St Kilda
Brendan Fevola Carlton
Andrew Raines Richmond
Carlton Brock McLean Melbourne
Lachlan Henderson Brisbane Lions
Collingwood Darren Jolly Sydney Swans
Essendon Mark Williams Hawthorn
Geelong Marcus Drum Fremantle
Hawthorn Josh Gibson North Melbourne
Shaun Burgoyne Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide Jay Nash Essendon
Jay Schulz  Richmond
Richmond Mitch Farmer Port Adelaide
St Kilda Andrew Lovett Essendon
Brett Peake Fremantle
Sydney Mark Seaby West Coast Eagles
Shane Mumford Geelong Cats
Josh Kennedy Hawthorn
Ben McGlynn Hawthorn
West Coast Bradd Dalziell Brisbane Lions
Western Barry Hall Sydney Swans

All those trade, plus a swag of potentially Fantasy Football relevant delistings (Simon Buckley anyone?) – Makes for a solid amount of information to consider!

Way more than I’m going to get to post about over the next few days…

So, what’s anyones preliminary takes on what has happened?

The obvious ones I’m seeing are Mclean stepping up when flanked by the best in the business (instead of coping the #1 tag each week), Seaby getting additional ruck time now sharing the lead with Mumford and Marcus Drum, if he can get game time with the cats, stepping up in the world while playing in the greatest team in the league (as of 2009…)

So, see you all in three+ weeks guys. Keep thinking about Oh10 and keep smashing those EPL comps! :D


TooSerious EPL – Now with Salary Predicting

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

Good news everyone.

Old TS now calculates salary movements on the ol’ Virtual Sports EPL comp. :)

Here’s hoping the Alumina misses just one more week, cause damn, that Arsenal keeper is gunna FLY UP!

A new monthly cycle is starting again in the iinet comp, so get thinking about your trades to capitalise best on the up coming matches.

Everton, Arsenal, ManU and Tottenham look to be your best bet over the coming game weeks. And if you’re a fan of a little risk, Burnley have been in ravaging form at home this year. So could definitely be looked at in terms of a budget option!

The Too Serious league is still leading- but we’ve all got to keep the good work up if we want to finish the season on top.

So lets stay focused and win this thing! :)
(And yanno, if you’re finding your enthusiasm lacking/going on holidays, feel free to contact too.serious.team.management@gmail.com, or our iinet organiser, JJ for some helpful tips and advise for getting the most out of your squad for each gameweek. :) )

As for AFL news, the NAB Draft camp is winding up, with all the usual names being bandied around. (Unsuprisingly).

But just a refresher for you all (yes- keep an eye on these kids no matter where they are drafted to.) -

Lewis Jetta – We all know how much fantasy gold is found in the words “mature-aged recruit”
Gary Rohan – Led the way in the shiny new Buckleys Kicking Challenge. Should help with his SC potential one would think.
Anthony Morabito – (definitely will be a player come draft week…)
Dustin Martin – Also did very well in the kicking test according to reports

Also, keep in mind that the highly rated Jack Trengove and Alex Carey aren’t attending due to playing in the SANFL GF. Which in my book lifts their stocks.

Also, don’t forget about Scully and his knee!

Hopefully in the not too distant future, I’ll be able to pull up some figures for you all to mull over!

But until then- It’s trade week.

And if the talk is anything to go by, it’s going to be an exciting time, with definite ripples flowing through the Fantasy Football universe.

(Or yanno, it might fizz out like last years 6 man trades. :) )

Either way, I’ll try to put up a bit of a spiel on any trades that could potentially be delicious to the average punter.
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