The 2010 Draw Analysis
Friday, October 30th, 2009Hey the draw is out.
Web address: http://www.afl.com.au/fixture/tabid/10586/default.aspx
For what it’s worth I have done an analysis on this. Best viewed in Comments section as otherwise it clashes with other text…
I calculated each team if they play every other team once (16 for Melbourne, 1 for Geelong.)
Then I added points for all their double up teams (e.g. 16 for Melbourne, 1 for Geelong)
Then I added 8 points for home games vs a team travelling interstate, 4 points for home games vs neutral team. I also subtracted the reverse for away games.
Here’s the results. Unsurprisingly despite being given press saying they have the easiest draw, Collingwood and Essendon the Melbourne-based warrior teams have been stitched up. Though they don’t travel much, they play all the top teams twice and that makes a big difference. The Pies actually do badly because though they only play 4 interstate, only twice do they play a non-Victorian side in Melbourne – the others they have to play only once and only away (the worst thing possible)
The best draw, well that’s for the Power North Brisbane and Richmond. Remember this when picking fringe players for your SC team.
So don’t be fooled by media outlets. This is one of the biggest fallacies about the draw in recent years – that it’s fair or reasonable or anything other than something to give the clubs the most money. All driven by money, not by fairness.
In 2009, Geelong had a much harder draw than St Kilda and were arguably a better team in H&A last year but the results didn’t show that. Collingwood had a very soft draw and were overrated coming into finals. In 2008 Geelong won 21 H&A games but had a remarkably soft draw. The draw makes a difference, but when September comes around, remember the impact of the draw and this should improve your finals tipping strike rate.
Anyway here’s my analysis for what its worth. (The games 1-7 below are not in order other than alphabetic.) Also there is a tiny bug in the results. Anyone who finds it gets kudos from me.
| Last Year | 15 games | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | TOT | O/A | Home (vs i/state) | Home (neutral state) | Away (neutral state) | Away (vs i/state) | Differential | Overall | Draw Factor | +/- | |
| Adelaide | 5 | 131 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 66 | 197 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 201 | 70 | 10.4 |
| Brisbane | 6 | 130 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 55 | 185 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 189 | 59 | -0.6 |
| Carlton | 7 | 129 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 59 | 188 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 184 | 55 | -4.6 |
| Collingwood | 4 | 132 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 46 | 178 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 4 | -8 | 170 | 38 | -21.6 |
| Essendon | 8 | 128 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 37 | 165 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 169 | 41 | -18.6 |
| Fremantle | 14 | 122 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 63 | 185 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 189 | 67 | 7.4 |
| Geelong | 1 | 135 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 57 | 192 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 188 | 53 | -6.6 |
| Hawthorn | 9 | 127 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 54 | 181 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 3 | -4 | 177 | 50 | -9.6 |
| Melbourne | 16 | 120 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 182 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 62 | 2.4 |
| North Melbourne | 13 | 123 | 14 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 68 | 191 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 199 | 76 | 16.4 |
| Port Adelaide | 10 | 126 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 71 | 197 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 205 | 79 | 19.4 |
| Richmond | 15 | 121 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 66 | 187 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 191 | 70 | 10.4 |
| St Kilda | 2 | 134 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 69 | 203 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 191 | 57 | -2.6 |
| Sydney | 12 | 124 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 61 | 185 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 189 | 65 | 5.4 |
| West Coast | 11 | 125 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 59 | 184 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 184 | 59 | -0.6 |
| Western Bulldogs | 3 | 133 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 57 | 190 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 4 | -4 | 186 | 53 | -6.6 |
| Higher = Easier |




