Should They Stay or Should They Go (2016) ? A.K.A Department of Corrections

Discussion in 'Blog' started by TheTassieHawk, Apr 12, 2016.

By TheTassieHawk on Apr 12, 2016 at 7:25 PM
  1. TheTassieHawk

    TheTassieHawk SC fanatic Staff Member

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    Some of the popular (and not so popular) SC picks are stinking it up losing $20k or more after Round 3 and looking at huge price drops if they don't find form in the next few weeks. When we don't have these players we can happily grab the popcorn and watch as their price plummets and look for value as a fallen premium later on in the season when their form takes a turn for the good.

    But when we do have them it becomes a worry. 3 quiet games at any time during the season is frustrating but at the start of the season super coaches start to panic.

    One of the golden rules of Supercoach is not to sideways trade your premiums, as most times they will come good (when I compared back to the same article form last year the average full season increased was around 11ppg, with a maximum around 23ppg). However, there are exceptions for every rule, and if injuries have been kind or you have been successful in the past using an aggressive trade strategy you should definitely consider using an early trade to correct a mistake in your team, particularly as the "Golden Rule" was created when we had 24 trades only and I feel 30 trades means gives you more freedom to act in the first 3-4 rounds.

    This isn't an article to discuss who to trade IN, that's covered over in the Best Buys
    http://tooserious.net/forum/threads/best-buys-round-4.89405

    PART 1 - PREMIUMS
    The following are some of the most SC relevant (total ownership >3%) underperforming premium players (dropping $20K or more to date) and the objective of Part One of this blog is to discuss whether to hold and hope or to pull the lever and trade them out before your SC season follows them down the gurgler.

    I don't profess to know any more than the average SCer, but hope to start debate about players you may be looking to rid yourself of, or hear and read that others are about to rage trade out. Have your say either way.

    Defenders

    Heath Shaw - $578.0k - 87, 74, 129 (avg 97) - $29k price drop in Round 3, facing further drops of $14k, $4k and $14k if he hits his average

    Optimistic View – keeps up a 95 plus average and holds down D1 or D2 nicely

    Pessimistic View – throws in another stinker and then bottoms out at sub $500k very early in the season and gets traded in by the masses

    TTH Says – Heater’s 2015 was always going to be difficult to live up to. He has had plenty of it but has been less efficient in his early games but when he has just smashed out a 129 there is no way he should be considered as trade out material.

    M Boyd - $524.7k - 96, 74, 78 (avg83) - $36k price drop after Round 3, facing $26k, $18k and $13k price drops if he hits his average.

    Optimistic View - smashes out 100 plus against Carlton and Brisbane in the next 2 matches and bottoms out around the $500K mark, season average between 95-100.

    Pessimistic View – age may slow him downand he may be called upon to pinch hit in SC unfriendly roles to accommodate the Dogs many young guns.

    TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP.

    T McDonald - $485.5k - 110, 67, 55 (avg77) - $32k price drop after Round 3, facing $30k, $21k and $10k price drops if he hits his average.

    Optimistic View – he was on fire in 2015 and with the Dees next 4 against the Pies, Tiges, Saints and Suns there is substantial room for improvement and an average in the high 80s.

    Pessimistic View – Dunn and Garland are out of form and may destabilize the Melbourne back 6 and show 2015 to be a spike year., an average in the low 80s may result

    TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP and see how he performs in the next 2-3 weeks.

    J McGovern - $405.8k - 54, 81, 64 (avg66) - $24k price drop after Round 3, facing $10k, $13k and $10k price drops if he hits his average.

    Optimistic View – one of the surprises of the 2014 SC season McGovern has talent to burn and there is substantial room for improvement and an average in the low-mid 80s is possible, meaning McGovern won’t drop much below $400k.

    Pessimistic View – 2015 showed McGovern as prone to knocks and niggles which but has too much impact on SC scoring, he can fill a role until the higher priced premos bottom out more fully.

    TTH Says – due to the lack of breakout defenders this year McGovern is yet another I would keep but you could trade out if you wish to rework your team structure and bring a D/F rookie back to the defense.

    Forwards

    Barlow - $471.1k - 61, 60, 99 (avg 73) - $16k price drop after Round 3, facing price drops of $16k, $8k and $15k if he hits his average

    Optimistic View - Round 1 and 2 were a blip, he might leak another $30k while averaging mid 80s early in the season, which might be less than what you expect but unlikely to be your teams biggest disaster.

    Pessimistic View – Barlow fell away in SC terms in 2015 and while I thought he could average 100-105 this season Freo fans and SC nuts alike are speculating he could average under 85 or be dropped from the Dockers side.

    TTH Says – don’t panic, you and many others picked him for a reason and while heaps traded him out in Round 3 sometimes a non-trade is a better move. IF you are convinced that he has to go there are still some cheap high-celling Forward options around (Zorko has yet to re-price) and you may have BenKenn and/or Menadue in the guts meaning you might want to restructure and load up on another Midfielder.

    S Gray - $459.2k - 99, 57, 78 (avg 78) - $22k price drop after Round 3, facing price drops of $19k, $9k and $7k if he hits his average

    Optimistic View – has been another to get plenty of it and can lift his scoring back to round 1 levels by being more efficient, Ports injuries give him a good chance of playing a key role and from Round 6 Port’s draw opens up nicely, so an average in the 90s is a chance.

    Pessimistic View – unproven and not hitting his targets to me is a sign of potential doom

    TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP but if sub 80 scores are still occurring when he plays Brisbane and Carlton in Rounds 7 and 8 then get your exit strategy happening fast.

    Midfielders

    Fyfe - $643.4.7k - 61, 157, 115 (avg 111) - $27k cheaper than pre-season, $1k, $15k and $14k price drops in future weeks

    Optimistic View – He keeps knocking out the scores of the last 2 weeks (and previous seasons).

    Pessimistic View – honestly, I don’t have one – he may stink it up some time before the byes and become cheap enough to be upgraded but most serious SC players will have started with him or get him in at some stage.

    TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP

    Pendles - $597.2k - 89, 110, 102 (avg 100) - a price drop of $30k so far, with $15k, 15k and $13k predicted to follow if he hits his average

    Optimistic View – the man has scored about as well as anyone not named GAJ and is scoring tons whilst nursing a bad rib and having very little effective on ball time in a side that is mediocre at best (at this stage).

    Pessimistic View – the rib injury knock may be something that impacts for some time meaning he may be averaging low 100s rather than the 120s you expect of Pendles and his ilk.

    TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP. As with Fyfe you keep the SC champions unless they break down and address holes elsewhere in your side.

    JPK - $570.1k - 75, 95 and 124 (avg 98) - a price drop of $25k in Round 3, and facing price drops of $7k, $5k and $13k in the next few weeks

    Optimistic View – He will easily average 105-110 for the season and is the players the Swannies turn to when the going gets tough and contested ball is where JPK shines

    Pessimistic View – he does tend to be a “reverse flat track bully” at times when the Swans are coasting to comfortable wins and there a few games coming up which could potentially be over by half time.

    TTH Says – You picked him as a POD and he ia averaging 100 without scoring one of his 150 plus, 20 contested posseion monster games we all know is coming soone rather than later. DEFINITELY KEEP.

    Sloane - $540.1k - 96, 81 and 92 (avg 92) - a price drop of $29k in Round 3, and facing price drops of $19k, $12k and $10k in the next few weeks

    Optimistic View – Sloane has been a solid A-grade Mid for the past few years and injury aside was damaging in 2015, with the forward line of the Crows looking very dangerous and having multiple threats Sloane won’t look back once he scores his first ton of the year.

    Pessimistic View – Danger leaving means Sloane is bound to draw more attention from the opposition, combined with Sauce being off his game early on Sloane may be in line for a year when he struggles to average much over the 105 mark.

    TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP, he is a good chance to be a top 10 midfielder by the time we reach the byes.

    The Bont - $525.3k - 110, 79 and 67 (avg 85) - a price drop of $32k in Round 3, and facing price drops of $27k, $20k and $10k in the next few weeks

    Optimistic View – Only the best of the best crack the ton in their 2nd season, the Bont will be averaging near enough to 110 by season’s end, plus he has Carlton and the Lions in Rounds 4 and 5.

    Pessimistic View – looking back to last year’s corresponding article the highest increase I could find was 15-20 points so a season average of 100-105 is indeed very possible. Libba being back could be a major negative.

    TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP unless there are whispers about injuries (I haven’t heard any but sometimes these come after a drop in scoring), or he starts playing a SC unfriendly role. If you picked him you will kick yourself when he inevitably hits form in the next 2-3 weeks.

    (break needed due to the 10,000 character article limit - see the next post on Page 1 for the continuation)
     
    TheTassieHawk, Apr 12, 2016
    #1
    • Like Like x 1
    • Option 1 Option 1 x 1

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by TheTassieHawk, Apr 12, 2016.

  • Page 1 of 2
    1. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      (break needed due to the 10,000 character article limit)

      Rucks
      S Jacobs       - $533.9k - 64, 74, 95 (avg 78) - a $49k drop (second only to Jack Crisp) - with drops of $23k, $18k and $20k if he hits his average in rounds 4 to 6.

      Optimistic View – ruckmen always mix up low scores with 120 pluses, extremely durable and just as likely as most others to finish among the top 3 or 4 rucks. Sinclair, McEvoy, Giriffen and Campell are his next 4 opponents so he should be scoring tons for fun soon.

      Pessimistic View – his number suggest he may struggle to break 100 for the season and may not provide good value when there are mid-priced rucks who are a good chance to average 85 plus. Form reports he seems to be doing well in hitouts but is underperforming around the ground and may end up being a dud buy.

      TTH says - DEFINITELY KEEP - unless you take the view that Hickey’s Round 1 wasn’t a one-off or that one of the $300k-$400k rucks are worth the risk. The $$$ earned through a downgrade will have to be well spent to be worth the 1 or 2 trades that end up being made to generate the cash.

      Mumford - $549.0k - 65, 105 and 117 (avg 96) - a $22k drop so far, with forecasts of $3k, $5k and $11k in the next 3 weeks if he scores his average each week

      Optimistic view - he somehow stays fit, plays to his potential with an improving GWS midfield helping boost his Hitouts-to-Advantage Stats and more wins/close losses making him a top 2 or 3 ruck. His draw seems fantastic for the next 6-8 weeks.

      Pessimistic view - always a likely chance to miss games and have quiet spells at times, as above with Jacobs he may struggle to finish with a high enough average to justify his pricetag.

      TTH says - DEFINITELY KEEP - from personal experience you will need to watch the GWS late withdrawals week in week out with a round by round exit strategy for when the near inevitable happens at some stage but his potential to go large makes holding him a decent bet
      ------------------------

      PART 2 - Mid Pricers
      The following are some of the most SC relevant (total ownership >3%) underperforming midpriced players (based on their first 3 games judged relative to preseason hype) and the objective of Part Two of this blog is to discuss whether to hold and hope or to pull the lever and trade them out.

      Please note that due to the criteria I won't be covering players who have missed a game such as Daniel Rich or Brad Crouch - you will need to use your discretion and judgement on them.

      Defenders

      E Yeo - $428.4k - 92, 40, 95 (avg 76) - $15k price drop in Round 3, facing further drops of $15k, $1k and $7k if he hits his average

      Optimistic View – with 2015 showing a demonstrated ability to go large when given a SC friendly role (as well throw in the regular occasional sub 70 score) Yeo is in prime breakout territory (5th year player) and could be about to go bang with a 120 then score around the 90-95 mark as per his Rd1 and Rd3 scoring which be a handy D4/D5/D6 average.

      Pessimistic View – too much chance of a SC unfriendly role and there are reports that both McGovern and Mackenzie are carrying injuries which only enhances that risk for mine.

      TTH Says – he is a massive POD so this decision is critical. MAKE YOUR OWN CALL. If considering a correction now or in the next few weeks balance carefully the chance he takes off after you have punted him (as happened with Jack Newness after coaches moved him on last year) and be sure consider who you bring in as his replacement as you don’t want to trade one problem for another.

      T Sheridan and J Lonergan - both around $360k and very much priced at their current average.

      Optimistic View – based on NAB form some had pegged both as bolter who could hold down D3/D4 early days and perhaps ends up as a D6/D7 type if all went well. I am not sure I see it, however with midpriced players if they pick up $$$ (however slowly) then they can easily be upgraded into fallen premiums prior to or during the byes so realistic coaches have a strong chance of a decent outcome particularly if the midpricer can crack out ONE 125 plus score to get their 3 game average cranking.

      Pessimistic View – both averaged 65ish last year and most likely will increase by 10-15 rather than 20 plus so an average mid to high 70s would not surprise – and this is likely be below initial expectations for coaches currently holding either player (or both).

      TTH Says – LOOK CAREFULLY AT YOUR TEAM. If Sheridan/Lonergan is your only "problem" and you have trades in hand get rid of him NOW if you have a better or more reliable player to bring in. If not then hold for a week or 2 until some of the Premo defenders start to trend towards the $450k mark and consider dumping him when you can. From reports last year’s SC winner held Malceski most of the season so there is no reason to think Sheridan/Lonergan will turn your season into a train wreck. One final point is if you have both Sheridan and Lonergan then perhaps punt one but keep the other if it improves the look and feel of your team – and cross your fingers you choose the right one to keep.

      Forwards

      T Greene –       $429.3k - 51, 120, 52 (avg74) - $18k price drop after Round 3, facing $3k, $18k and $7k price drops if he hits his average.

      Optimistic View – clearly Greene can be counted on to score a 120 this week and then he can find some consistency and average 90 plus as his owners expect. If his attitude or effort stinks (as can be implied for getting sent to the NEAFL training squad pre- Rd2) he could get dropped at some point which is a positive for mine as it allows for a clear and correct correctional trade.

      Pessimistic View – Consistency – Greene – surly TTH jests, a player with season averages of 73, 102 and 82from 2013 to 2015 is surely going to give you more than the occasional headache.

      TTH Says – has upside but there are others I like more for a similar price, HE WOULD BE KEEP FOR ONE MORE WEEK TO ME, then get your exit strategy together if it’s another stinker even if you have to take a punt on a Defender of Mid and swing players around via dpp.

      J De Goey – $332.93k - 81, 50, 52 (avg73) - $14k price increase after Round 3, facing $7k, $15k and $9k price drops if he hits his average.

      Optimistic View – I saw some coaches speculating preseason that he could be 90 plus, and 4 of his next 5 look to be prime opportunities for tonning up if he is going to be a gun this year.

      Pessimistic View –I don’t see him averaging 90 in his 2nd year - to me 80-85 is realistic - but feel free to differ unless you think he is the Bont V2.0.

      TTH Says – has upside for sure and should provide some decent scoring and cahs generation once he strings together 2-3 good scores. DEFINTELY KEEP FOR ME, unless you have missed a “must have” player like HALL.

      Rucks

      C Sinclair – $404.3.3k - 61, 116, 52 (avg76) - $5k price drop after Round 3, facing $1k price rise, and $12k and $2k price drops if he hits his average.

      Optimistic View – at a new club, with a strong midfield and seems to be the clear #1 ruck despite preseason murmurings Tippett would share the rucking evenly due to Sinclair’s potential value as a forward target. His one good score so far is a sign that he can average 90-95 which is close to keeper level for an F6 which and if picked as a R2 he can be swung Forward once one of the top rucks hits an affordable price, and provide insurance via a dpp R3.
      Pessimistic View – 2 very poor scores. Good rucks do have down days but he needs to turn the 50s and 60s into mid 70s and have lessof them or he will cause headaches.
      TTH Says – DEFINTELY KEEP, as his F/R is handy in numerous ways and he is as good chance a chance as any of being a good ruck performer relative to his current price

      Lobbe – $383.5k - 82, 51, 60 (avg64) - $16k price decrease after Round 3, facing $16k, $9k and $6k price drops if he hits his average.

      Optimistic View – With Ryder out he is just about guaranteed a game unless she is injured or suspended. As a genuine “fallen premium” has the pitnetial to run into form ala McEvoy in the last half dozen games of 2015.

      Pessimistic View – Stunk it up in NAB, Hickey has scored 150 plus against him in a loss to Port in Round 1 of the real stuff and I don’t see him looking like the player of 2013 and 2014. Despite being likely to average 70-80 he doesn’t have dpp so is likely to require a trade out at some point in time.

      TTH Says – DEFINTELY TRADE FOR ME, keep for a few weeks and hope for a turnaround if you have massive problems to fix elsewhere.

      M Leuenberger – $383.5k - 82, 51, 60 (avg64) - $16k price decrease after Round 3, facing $16k, $9k and $6k price drops if he hits his average.

      Optimistic View – was once a very good and extremely promising ruck, no established ruck threat apart from the un-retired Jamar who is most likely insurance only.
      Pessimistic View – is extremely injury prone and has started out reminiscent of TBC efforts as lead ruck for Essendon in 2015 - has Groundhog Day written all over it for anyone who followed TBC in 2015 with Lobbe in 2016.
      TTH Says –DEFINTELY TRADE FOR ME, he neither a R2 or F6 and is too expensive and injury prone to sit on your bench for very long even if you swing him .

      ---------------------------------------------------------
      One final note in what is becoming War and Peace is a reminder that this isn't an article to discuss who to trade IN, that's covered over in the Best Buys
      http://tooserious.net/forum/threads/best-buys-round-4.89405
      Cheers TTH
      • Like Like x 7
      TheTassieHawk, Apr 12, 2016
      #2
    2. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Nice work TTH.

      Thoughts on Lonergan and Sheridan?
      • Like Like x 1
      That KI Guy, Apr 12, 2016
      #3
    3. HotPiesColdDrinks
      HotPiesColdDrinks
      Thoughts on Daniel Rich? He was pulled out last week due to hamstring tightness and last I heard, no certainty this week either. I believe he got a score in the 40's as well in his 2nd game, so only played the 2 at this stage.
      HotPiesColdDrinks, Apr 12, 2016
      #4
    4. NedFlanders
      NedFlanders
      Thanks TTH - you obviously put quite a bit of time and thought into this.

      I don't disagree with any of your conclusions (though reading the pessimistic views could lead to questions why we started with some of these guys in the first place!)

      I suspect the time for the correction trade on Barlow was last week, before the first set of price adjustments. The 2 week injury to Mundy may have bought him a short term opportunity to bolster his scoring but, if you take the pessimistic view, it is short term relief at best.
      • Like Like x 1
      NedFlanders, Apr 12, 2016
      #5
    5. Crafty Yarni
      Crafty Yarni
      solid write up tth.

      I flicked barlow in rnd 1 for hall and I'm happy with that correctional trade. i have jumping jack in the team and was looking at a swap there. what are our members thoughts on bringing in a player that is onlt in 2.5% of teams, is playing in a team that are kicking a lot of goals this season and is ( in theory ) playing above himself. The player I refer to is Waite

      Thoughts anyone
      • Option 2 Option 2 x 1
      Crafty Yarni, Apr 12, 2016
      #6
    6. graeme
      graeme
      @walesy - in the stats section (which is very cool) for AFL Fantasy is there a problem with the macro or formula for the sign in the movement column? For example, A Hall's last week's (price) movement ($49,000) is correct but is shown as negative. However, the YTD column is both positive and correct ($103,000). Perhaps the macro contains an incorrect minus and then a subsequent additional minus to "correct?"

      The signs appear to be correct in SC which is why this stuck out like the proverbials.
      graeme, Apr 13, 2016
      #7
    7. walesy
      walesy
      Wowzers, that bug has been around for a while! Cheers mate. fixed
      walesy, Apr 13, 2016
      #8
    8. Adam73
      Adam73
      Any thoughts on what to do with Brad Crouch boys???
      Adam73, Apr 13, 2016
      #9
    9. pollypies
      pollypies
      @HotPiesColdDrinks
      Sheridan has had 27 and 22 disposals at 74% and 77% in rounds 1 and 3 (round 2 was less productive). They appear pretty good numbers to me for a mid priced defender. I think he is probably being hurt by Fremantle's poor form and less overall points allocated to the Dockers to be shared around. I think the question you need to ask is will Fremantle start to win games? If so, I expect Sheridan's scores to improve.

      Have always thought Rich was over rated but I that is a subjective opinion so best to ignore!
      • Like Like x 1
      pollypies, Apr 13, 2016
      #10
    10. pollypies
      pollypies
      Thoughts on Toby Greene?
      • Dislike Dislike x 3
      pollypies, Apr 13, 2016
      #11
    11. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      they will be among those I add (prob Thursday)

      I'll be honest - not a fan - check out his games played history and tell me whether you think he will average any more than 78-85 ppg
      http://tooserious.net/forum/player_career.php?id=718&pcid=39398&name=Daniel Rich

      fair call - I think the 2 sides to trade we all have to consider is who we are trading OUT and who we are trading IN - given Halls form and ownership Trading Barlow to Hall after Round 2 made sense

      I am certainly not trying to stifle debate but it might be better to discuss your question over at the Best Buys discussion
      http://tooserious.net/forum/threads/best-buys-round-4.89405/

      I expect you are trading him, if so check out the Best Buys - if not - check out his injury history dating back to 2012
      http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/117166/Brad-CROUCH

      If you are holding consider how long he will be out (I had heard 2-3 weeks) and then how much cash he can make in the 4-5 weeks after that as you would want to be flicking him before the byes unless you see him averaging at keeper levels
      TheTassieHawk, Apr 13, 2016
      #12
    12. Owen
      Owen
      Give him the boot I reckon, just know that if you do he'll probably get a 100 this round. Same thing with Brad Crouch, out with a three week injury and not performing that great. Correct both of them.
      Owen, Apr 13, 2016
      #13
    13. brownje
      brownje
      Good work TassieHawk! Nice to have this calm, rational advice.
      • Like Like x 1
      brownje, Apr 13, 2016
      #14
    14. BreakerJ
      BreakerJ
      Did anyone else get sucked into J McGovern? What are peoples thoughts will he pick up his scoring is an 80+ avg for the remainder of the year a possibility or is a 65 - 80 avg a lot more likely?
      TU keep
      TD Trade
      • Dislike Dislike x 7
      BreakerJ, Apr 13, 2016
      #15
    15. Owen
      Owen
      Things I like to remind myself of:
      - Averages aren't the be all and end all, especially early in the season. One bad game and someone with a very appealing average suddenly becomes "not a keeper".
      - You only get the score from the player after you trade them into your team, i.e. it's very unlikely that Parker will continue to average 135, so if he finishes the year on a yearly average of 115 then he will actually average below 115 for the rest of the year. Similarly if you think Tom McDonald will finish on an average of 100 then he'll need to score at a rate of around 104 for the rest of the season.
      • Like Like x 2
      Owen, Apr 13, 2016
      #16
    16. Dun1
      Dun1
      Any Eagles supporters who can shed some light on Gaff's ordinary scoring?
      In 3 games he's had 33, 30, 32 possessions yet is only scoring 80's. Doesn't appear to be much upside going on those stats.
      Dun1, Apr 14, 2016
      #17
    17. Len
      Len
      He is clanger prone atm, averaging 3.3 per game, I think thats worth around 24 to 30 points deduction?
      Len, Apr 14, 2016
      #18
    18. Dun1
      Dun1
      Cheers Len. Should I hold onto him? Thinking of straight swap to Parker but that feels a bit sidewaysish.
      Dun1, Apr 14, 2016
      #19
    19. Len
      Len
      I am certifiably the worst SC trader on the site, but I'd call it a correction
      Len, Apr 14, 2016
      #20
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