Round 7 Tips & is the Top 8 already decided?

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, May 5, 2016.

By tipbetpro on May 5, 2016 at 10:15 PM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2016
    Messages:
    124
    Likes Received:
    193
    Six rounds into the season and the general consensus is that although the premiership race is wide open (with 8 obvious contenders), the Top 8 may already be settled! So is this backed by the numbers? Let’s take a look.

    Season to Date
    There is good reason for the view that the Top 8 may already be settled based on evidence from the season-to-date. Since Round 1 when Melbourne upset GWS (just!) – a current side from the Top 8 has not lost to a side currently outside the Top 8 to build an imposing 25 & 1 record over the 2016 season.
    upload_2016-5-5_20-9-54.png

    Teams This Week
    Does the talent bely performance … nope, not this week – based on Round 7 teams – the current Top 8 are close to the most talented teams (TBP Team Rank - based on sum of individual TipBetPro Player Rankings) with only Port sneaking ahead of the Dogs. Talent is only half the equation, restriction the talent of the opposition is also crucial – once again the current Top 8 stand out on that measure with only Hawthorn (9th) replaced by St Kilda (8th) on the Team Defence Rank measure (and we don’t have a high likelihood of the Hawks missing the 8!)

    So it’s all settled right – the Top 8 have dominated the rest in season to date and for all intents and purposes currently have the best players and the best team defence. Well not quite … the one variable is who is currently missing – when they’re back and who might get injured going forward? It should come as no surprise that the teams near the bottom of the ladder have been those hardest hit by injury/suspension so in many cases there is good reason for their struggles.
    upload_2016-5-5_20-11-36.png

    Looking Forward
    So – what’s our call? Can any of the sides from outside the Top 8 make finals? This is our view.

    No
    Fremantle     – 0-6 & long term injuries – they’re gone.
    Essendon – Supplement scandal ended their season before it started
    Brisbane – Back at near full strength now so performance is improving – but very much a development team
    Carlton – Have been near full strength most weeks and only wins have been against bottom two sides. Still in development.

    Unlikely
    Collingwood     – Long term injuries to Swan, Williams and Elliott have reduced the Pies squad ranking considerably. With none due back soon, hard to see the Pies making the Top 8.
    Richmond – Team is ranked only narrowly outside Top 8 teams (in 10th) even when missing two of their Top 5 players in Rance and Cotchin so upside suggests they are a potential top 8 team. However it is a long way back from 1 & 5. Need a win against Hawks or Swans in next two weeks.
    Gold Coast – 3&0 has quickly turned to 3&3 and their depth is poor as demonstrated by their squad rank this week of 18th in the comp. Soft draw is only thing in their favour.
    Melbourne – The only team to have beaten a Top 8 side but there is not much upside there (have been one of the least impacted sides by injuries thus far) so if Melbourne aren’t currently in the Top 8, it is hard to see them breaking in.
    St Kilda – If a team was to surprise we see the Saints as one of the best contenders. Team defence is Top 8 worthy and talent isn’t too far off the mark. Have enjoyed a good run with injury though and can’t afford to not have their best players out there.

    Maybe
    Port Adelaide – At their best the Power is a Top 8 team (even with their best player, Robbie Gray, out they are ranked 8th on squad talent this week) and they haven’t enjoyed a great run with injury so far. At 3&3 and with a soft couple of weeks ahead the Power are not out of the finals race and we see them as the stand-out best contender to sneak into the Top 8 should one of the current Top 8 slip up.

    What do you think? Can any of this lot make the finals? And who drops out? Would love to hear your view.

    Round 7 Tips
    And finally, our tips for Round 7 are as follows. Get on the Blues if you want a good value upset! Check out our full reviews at http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/cee5
    upload_2016-5-5_20-13-59.png

    Should you want any stats looked at for next week’s TooSerious feature article, let us know and we’ll be sure to give it a go!
     
    tipbetpro, May 5, 2016
    #1
    • Like Like x 3

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, May 5, 2016.

    1. Boulderdash
      Boulderdash
      Is the Geelong / WCE game as close as a flip of a coin you will get to?

      upload_2016-5-5_20-33-53.png
      Boulderdash, May 5, 2016
      #2
    2. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      Pretty much - just some rounding in it.
      tipbetpro, May 5, 2016
      #3
    3. ORFFWizard
      ORFFWizard
      Some of the percentage look interesting and odd from my own viewpoint.
      I look at Port without a proper ruckman and their best player out, with patchy form at best against a side getting Beams back, Rockliff more match fitness and just gave a premiership contender a serious run for their money last week.
      Yet, Brisbane are the side with only 17% chance of winning ?
      If you were a bookie I would put a little money on Lions for clear value bet.

      My Carlton side beating Collingwood as favourites. Wow!
      I am a Carlton supporter and give us some hope but no way would I consider us favourites to win.
      Hope you are right on that one.

      Geelong playing at home second week in a row after a 20 goal hiding of a travelling team play another travelling team from far West of the nation and rated a 50-50 chance only of winning at Kardinia Park.

      The other 6 games look a bit more sensible as far as percentage chances of team involved.

      As for the 8, I would agree, looks like a year it might be settled in very early.
      However, as we know, things can change quickly and would not take much to find 3 months later two surprise sides in and sides like Crows fallen away to 10th. It would be fun if the Hawks all of a sudden fell right out of contention. Unlikely, however, it can happen.
      • Like Like x 1
      ORFFWizard, May 6, 2016
      #4
    4. Bearfly
      Bearfly
      With a forecast of about 25mm rain on Sunday big men could very well be obsolete in the game - expecting it to be very much a scrambly, contested game - won't be very attractive footy, but will be tough and rugged, whoever is stronger around the contest will take it out.

      Find this strange as well - Eagles proving yet again that they don't travel well, having gone down to both Hawks and Swans comfortably in both journeys on the road - I say Cats by 30+
      Bearfly, May 6, 2016
      #5
    5. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      Yeah it's an interesting round. I'm comfortable enough with Port being such strong favourites - they are at home, coming off a good win, getting key players back as well (Wingard/Trengove offset Beams) and Trengove/Westhoff are actually quite similar to Martin in being that more mobile rucking type.

      The Geelong low confidence tip surprised me too. There may be a little carry over in our model from 2015 in there in that the Cats underwhelming 2015 performances down at Geelong limit their home ground advantage (although it was still the ultimate reason why the model tipped Geelong). Plus West Coast are still rated as very much as a side in their prime, albeit not one performing up to expectations presently.

      Carlton should beat Collingwood. We think the market has this one wrong (and the market is rapidly adjusting - come in from $3.20 to $2.40 today). At full strength - sure the Pies are the better side. But with the teams named this week and the Pies numerous outs - anyway you look at it, Carlton are the superior outfit (not convincingly ... but enough).

      As for the Top 8 ... you never wish for injuries, but it would be kind of fun if one of those top 8 sides got hit hard and suddenly had to contend with a St Kilda or Melbourne for a spot in the 8
      • Like Like x 1
      tipbetpro, May 6, 2016
      #6
    6. ORFFWizard
      ORFFWizard
      Have to admit on closer inspection of the Carlton game it does look close to toss of a coin than I thought.
      Really depends how match fit Walker and Everitt are coming back into the team after injuries as they will need to be some prime goal kicking options up forward.

      Agreed about the top 8, would love St.Kilda or Melbourne give it a bash of making it to add some interest in lead up to the finals.
      Which just reminds me what an anti-climax it will be when it finally hits the last home and away round and you find out you need to wait two weeks for the final to begin. Well done AFL. What a dumb idea and season momentum killer.
      ORFFWizard, May 6, 2016
      #7
    7. RPritch
      RPritch
      I'm actually tipping Brisbane this week. I personally don't rate Port and they have no decent ruckman, no Gray and Wingard in for first week back and hasn't played well yet this year. Meanwhile, I watched every minute of the Brisbane v Sydney game and they were extremely unlucky to lose, was an amazing game. D.Beams is the best player on the ground from either side when 100%, with Gray out and my opinion that he's better than Rocky, even though he won't be at 100% this game he will have an impact. The only thing going against the Lions is that they are usually terrible away, if it was home for them I'd be very confident
      RPritch, May 6, 2016
      #8
    8. RPritch
      RPritch
      This makes me more comfortable in tipping the Lions. They played in the wet last week against supposedly the best wet football team in the comp and matched them, Port don't seem to be a wet football team to me
      RPritch, May 6, 2016
      #9
    9. walesy
      walesy
      Killing the tips so far!
      • Like Like x 1
      walesy, May 7, 2016
      #10
    10. Len
      Len
      Missed this when posted for some reason it dodged my feed, great article, thanks!

      Barring serious injury or form reversal the top 8 is what it is
      • Like Like x 1
      Len, May 7, 2016
      #11

Share This Page