Best Buys - Round 7

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, May 4, 2016.

By tipbetpro on May 4, 2016 at 1:25 PM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

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    It’s a bye round in NRL this week, so we’ve done a special write up for the international week (NRL-Rep-Round), that should mean I’ve had more time to scan through the stats and find some good buys, but to be honest I contemplated retiring on top after the Parker call.

    This week we are just looking for that upgrade target – maybe you are downgrading one player and upgrading another, or maybe you just have some spare cash burning a hole through your SC pocket.

    Last week I said that I thought this player had turned the corner, but may still go down in price a little bit. Well he had turned the corner and got 140+ which sent his price up by just under $10k. Don’t be deterred though, even based off his current average of 106 he will continue to go up in value as a defender – and I think that average will rise. He started the season slow with an 87 then a 74, but in the last 4 weeks he has managed to get 129, 70, 132 and that 143.
    He is in around 38% of teams already, but if you don’t have Heath Shaw, then the time to buy is now.
    He has Freo and Gold Coast to come in the next couple of weeks which he scored 145 and 126 respectively, the last time he played them – but let’s face it Heath Shaw is a gun and can do well against anyone.

    As always the format :
    POSITION Name (CLUB) – current price (expected increase) – AVERAGE

    DEFENDERS
    Rookies:

    DEF Darcy Tucker (FRE) - 117k (+27k) - AVG=51 (If Freo play their rookies then Tucker could be an option as a downgrade)
    DEF Thomas Lee (STK) - 124k (+42k) - AVG=67 (Didn’t play last week, but could be a good downgrade target)

    Keepers:
    DEF Courtenay Dempsey (ESS) - 292k (+34k) - AVG=93 (Will Dempsey keep this up? If you think so then he could be a cheap option after his first two games)
    DEF Heath Shaw (GWS) - 562k (+15k) - AVG=106 (Buy of the Week – if you upgrade one player this week, bring him in).

    Midfielders
    Rookies:

    MID Josh Smith (COL) - 102k (+64k) - AVG=84 (Looks like a great downgrade target)
    MID Josh Dunkley (WBD) - 117k (+24k) - AVG=47 (Another downgrade option if he is named)

    Keepers:
    MID Bryce Gibbs (CAR) - 470k (+23k) - AVG=100 (Got 130 last week and 121 the week before – but that was against two easier opponents – he could be a good buy, but not without its risks)
    MID Callan Ward (GWS) - 587k (-4k) - AVG=118 (Ward is flying under the radar of most coaches and only in ~5% of teams – could be a good POD if you need one)
    MID Luke PARKER (SYD) - 596k (+18k) - AVG=130 (He should really already be in your team, but it’s not too late)
    MID Gary Ablett (GCS) - 596k (-13k) - AVG=118 (Ablett is still Ablett and a worthy pick nonetheless)
    MID Joel Selwood (GEE) - 598k (+13k) - AVG=117 (You’d be happy if you picked him in your starting line-up, could still be an upgrade target but there are probably safer options)
    MID Daniel Hannebery (SYD) - 627k (-2k) - AVG=121 (Another Sydney midfielder doing well)
    MID Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) - 645k (+4k) - AVG=129 (Is Danger the new Ablett?)

    Rucks
    Rookies:

    R/F Mason Cox (COL) - 117k (+48k) - AVG=71 (A great story, but will he keep his spot? 2 goals against the Eagles should ensure he is named this week)
    RUC Sam GRIMLEY (ESS) - 124k (+13k) - AVG=38 (Easily the worst of the 3 options this week)
    RUC Daniel Currie (GCS) - 163k (+29k) - AVG=62 (Has waited a long time to play AFL football, will he finally keep his spot?)

    Keepers:
    RUC Nic Naitanui (WCE) - 569k (+12k) - AVG=118 (due to a poor game Goldy has dropped off the list, but NicNat is going from strength to strength at the moment)
    RUC Max GAWN (MEL) - 620k (+1k) - AVG=119 (still a good buy if you need a ruck)

    Forwards
    Rookies:

    FWD Dougal Howard (PTA) - 124k (+29k) - AVG=54
    FWD Tim O’Brien (HAW) - 170k (+20k) - AVG=59 (No longer on the bubble and playing in a losing Hawthorn team, rookies like O’Brien may find themselves the first to be dropped)
    FWD Peter Wright (GCS) - 187k (+51k) - AVG=88 (A bit more expensive, and only got 24 last week - I missed this game, did he get injured, or was he a one game wonder?)
    FWD Daniel MENZEL (GEE) - 347k (+33k) - AVG=93 (That dreaded mid-range option – will Menzel become a keeper, or will he disappoint)

    Keepers:
    M/F Dayne Zorko (BRL) - 565k (-3k) - AVG=118 (Amazing a Brisbane forward can be going so well…)
    FWD Jarrad Waite (NTH) - 575k (-4k) - AVG=126 (This man just keeps going – only in 6% of teams though)

    Still a week away:
    DEF Jason Castagna (RIC) - 117k - AVG=37
    DEF Aliir Aliir (SYD) - 124k - AVG=36
    MID Ben Keays (BRL) - 117k - AVG=59
    MID James Polkinghorne (ESS) - 124k - AVG=52
    MID Kieran Lovell (HAW) - 126k - AVG=44
    MID Connor Blakely (FRE) - 160k - AVG=44
    MID David Zaharakis (ESS) - 508k (-12k) - AVG=109
    M/F McKenzie Willis (GCS) - 117k - AVG=32
    M/F Christian Petracca (MEL) - 124k - AVG=63
    FWD Allan CHRISTENSEN (BRL) - 372k (-12k) - AVG=69
    M/F Zac Merrett (ESS) - 499k (-18k) - AVG=102
    FWD Eddie Betts (ADE) - 505k (-18k) - AVG=100

    So that’s Best Buys for this week.
    Good luck to all with your trades and hopefully some wins on the weekend. For all your trade discussion feel free to join us in the comments section below.

    Cheers
    http://www.tipbetpro.com/ - your statistically tested guide to tipping and betting on AFL and NRL
     
    • Like Like x 2

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, May 4, 2016.

    1. rich12345
      rich12345
      Thinking either Simpson or Boyd this week. Boyd scoring better but usually misses more games.
      Option 1- Simpson
      Option 2- Boyd
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 8
      • Option 2 Option 2 x 4
    2. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      I considered Murphy for the Best Buy list, but his 2 recent good scores of ~100 just aren't enough for a midfield gun/keeper.
      If he was in any other position he'd be a shoe in, but we expect more from our mids 110+ at least.
      Also, he won't get to play Freo and the Bombers every week.:D
    3. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 1
    4. walesy
      walesy
      Lets remedy that. :D
    5. Senator96
      Senator96
      Yes I agree he'd need to increase that average a bit for sure. His scores have been a bit down the past few years but hopefully with teams not really tagging anymore he can get back up there again
    6. Nick
      Nick
      Thumbs up: Hanners at 627k

      Thumbs down: Ward at 587k
      • Dislike Dislike x 5
      • Like Like x 2
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 1
    7. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      Anyone considering rocky ??
      • Dislike Dislike x 1
    8. Grizzles
      Grizzles
      Happy to watch one more game TTH. BE of 90 means even if he gets another 130 he will only go up 20-30k still making him getable at 500k ish.
    9. walesy
      walesy
      I'm shocked that he hasn't seen more action. I considered him, then figured I would buck the trend by overlooking him, not wanting to get sucked into another injury.
    10. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      cheers

      at this stage I am of the opinion I will hold off on Rocky for at least 2-3 weeks as if he hits 3 * 120's he will rise from $480k to $530k (per the TS calculator) and I would rather see sustained (4 weeks) of form (and no injuries) than regret trading him in early to save a few $$$
      • Like Like x 1
    11. IPOD
      IPOD
      i only have 6k in the bank so looks like a double down grade this week of Josh Smith and Petracca in and out Dea use mpp moving Brown to Def and say good bye to menapoo.

      TU - Good decision make 290k spend in coming week on mooed rookies

      TD - Find a better option (if TD other options would be nice)
      • Like Like x 3
      • Dislike Dislike x 2
    12. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      Maybe just the one downgrade - wait a week on Petracca, his price isn't going moving this week and he might do a Wright and do nothing this week, do a Lee and get dropped next week or even just get injured.

      Unless you think those rookies will go down in value, there is no harm in holding one for an extra week and saving a trade.
    13. walesy
      walesy
      Gunna got against tbp on this one, cause you're doing the exact same trades as me. :D

      The reasons for it are:

      1. Not enough cash. I don't have enough cash in the second trade to go up.
      2. Petracca and Keays have been on my watchlist for ever. So it's either a double-downgrade this week, or a double downgrade next week.

      And 3 downgrades in a row doesn't sit right. :D Would be nice to get the cash on the field next week!

      There is the risk that Petracca gets injured/dropped/does poorly, but I see that being a small risk worthy of getting the $$ on the field a week earlier.
      • Like Like x 1
    14. thokash
      thokash
      Think I'll double downgrade to Cox and Smith this week, and Keays and Petracca next week. With the money in the bank I will purchase a NASA flight to a planet which doesn't have SuperCoach so I can escape it forever.
      • Like Like x 5
    15. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      $6k in the bank makes things tight but how about Dea/AMT to Smith plus Premo Defender up to $508k (or so) instead ??

      If you don't have AMT then Oliver/Mcarthy/Mills might be good substitutes. You can still double downgrade (Rd8) and then double upgrade the week after (Rd9). Menadue remains as F/M bench cover and hopefully smacks out a 90 sometime. It probably depends on whether you think Cox can make enough $$$ or remain in the team if using him as cover.
    16. sleeprequired
      sleeprequired
      Racking my brain here. So I've traded out weitering and Davis for smith on the bubble and also brought Barlow (back) in. With such a low break even if I'm gonna do it, it has to be this week.

      Now that leaves me with brown and tippa on the field down back, also got Ruggles down there.

      My issue is there's a weakness down the back and I'm going to end up with McCarthy and papley on the bench up forward. Swans palying essendon so maybe put papley on the field.

      Argh!!!

      So... Dilemmas dilemmas...

      The alternative is to bring in Simpson to bolster the defense instead of Barlow but man it's the right time for Barlow...
    17. Mano
      Mano
      Hey guys,

      I have a bit of a dilemma. I have traded a few times this season already due to injury and do not want to continue wasting them. I have some rookies I would like to downgrade or downgrade one and upgrade another. My issue this week is injuries and dud rookies.

      I have Weitering who I should be getting rid of.
      I have Laird who I am not sure what to do with.
      I have Grimley in the ruck.
      And then a few others that could go like Menadue, Ben Ken, R Davis, A McDon-Tip.

      Main concern is what to do with Laird. Any ideas please?
    18. Jason
      Jason
      Laird will be in the top defenders at the end of the year. Hold onto him.
      • Like Like x 5
    19. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      I was actually thinking today I should have included Barlow as a Best Buy - started so poorly and has got 120+ 2 weeks in a row now.
      The time is right, but only if he keeps this up - sometimes you just have to go with your gut...
      Then again, it never feels good bringing someone back in who you lost faith in just a few weeks ago.

      Overall, I say go for it.
    20. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      It sounds like you would be better off to give Barlow a miss and keep your team strong right across the park.

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