Quite a few mids bottoming out this week in the 500-550k range.
Ablett, Gray, Selwood, Ward, Parker...who is most likely to bounce back to a 115 avg?

Even S Mitchell is good value if he can break a tag. He has a good run ahead and is rarely seen at $455k.

S Mitchell has dropped a fair bit now, and I had him on the watch list last week - but I think you'd want a few weeks of consistency before you brought him in - he is a mid after all.

But yes, potentially a lot of value amongst the mids - but pick one you think will be good for the season, not just a mid who has a good run coming up - after all, you don't want to have to trade them out.

Also, you my want to consider the bye rounds and which weeks you need an extra player - or which week you definitely don't need one.

I need to go a rookie defender this week (and again next week). Would really appreciate views on:
DEF Samuel Collins (FRE) - 117k - AVG=59
DEF Harry Marsh (SYD) - 117k - AVG=51
DEF Billie SMEDTS (GEE) - 190k - AVG=57
DEF Oscar McDonald (MEL) - 184k (+23k) - AVG=53

Who would you be buying and why? Travelling in Europe for work and haven't been able to watch any games (apart from the tiges for 2 weeks).

Really need some help crew

I still have S.Martin in the ruck (with Goldy) and I think I'm going to hold onto him for now.
I plan on trading out B.Kennedy and M.Hartley for R.Gray (who I'm very surprised to not see in Best Buys) and S.Collins.
Trading S.Martin could be done by holding back on the M.Hartley to S.Collins trade until next week, as M.Hartley won't play and therefore won't go down in price and S.Collins has only played one game so far.
Then I would trade B.Kennedy to either J.Paine or D.Howard and trade S.Martin to either M.Gawn or N.Naitanui, as I don't want to trade him out for any ruck outside the 'big 3'.
Thoughts on what to do would be appreciated:
B.Kennedy + M.Hartley to R.Gray + S.Collins
B.Kennedy + S.Martin to J.Paine + M.Gawn
B.Kennedy + S.Martin to D.Howard + M.Gawn
B.Kennedy + S.Martin to J.Paine + N.Naitanui
B.Kennedy + S.Martin to D.Howard + N.Naitanui
PS:
Forgot to mention that doing options 2-5 would make me play S.Kerridge on the field rather than an extra premo (but only if S.Martin was still counted a premo) and would leave me with no defensive coverage (unless B.Williams gets named) and that is with both KK and Laird on the field so if either of those two don't get up then options 2-5 are instantly useless.

Great and interesting read as always. Lack of Gray in mids is astounding though I think he's clearly the sharpest buying there this week and about to head north towards his usual $600k or so. Love the Zork. He's been quietly powering my team since I brought him in before his first price hike. Amidst the carnage at Brissie he's been great.

I think Collins out of that group. Injuries in Freo's backline will help his JS and he played quite well last week. His WAFL form has been consistent all year too. You do put trust in Ross the Boss though. I wouldn't think a huge point winner but should be good for 60 odd points a game.

Had since rd1 and I strongly suggest you stay away. He gets no contested ball which hurts his score and his ball use has been a bit worse and less influential on games this year than previous years. This means he needs to get a lot of the ball to get a good score and he doesn't really get a heap of it. Also doesn't tackle much too. At that price range Ben Reid is a better option than Birchall imo, everyone knows he's a gun player but obviously injuries have hurt him but now he's having a good run with that and is playing some great footy for the Pies

I kind of knew this would happen, so here is a special little add on for the RG fan club:
Why Robbie Gray didn't make the list.

I hate Port Adelaide and despise Robbie Gray... Nah not really - I love Port Adelaide right now because they won me money last week and Gray helped them do that!

The real reason is he just didn't make the cut.

Mids are to some extent a dime a dozen - well actually they are expensive, but there are a lot of them.
So for mid keepers I use fairly strict cut-offs.
An average above 110 (sorry Cotchin you just missed out) will get a player on the list.
An average over 100 and an expected rise of ~20k+ will also sneek you onto the list (hence T Mitchell and Steven also made the list - T Mitchell is hanging there by a thread).
Using those methods alone we get 14 players (I exclude Zorko because he is a fwd) - that's more keeper mids than a team needs.

In fact, that's too many - so unlike other positions (e.g. defenders) I try to cut that list back.
Keeping it just to the stats, I look for players that have a poor 3 game average or "fringe" guns who might be going down in value.
So I removed Parker, Ward and Coniglio - all good players, and if you have them I wouldn't even think of trading them - but someone has to be culled and those 3 didn't make the list.

We still have 11, but that'll do.

So back to Gray.
Average = 105
3-game average = 99
Last game = 109
i.e. not one of those stats is above 110 - so based of stats alone he is not a certain gun.

Expected price increase ~ 10,000
Expected price increase for the next 3 weeks ~16,000
i.e. he is near enough to fairly priced - so no real reason to get him right now.

Now having said all of that, based off prior year stats Gray is probably a good buy at his current price (and so is Priddis and S Mitchell).
And if you exclude those two games where Gray got sub-100 then his average improves above the cut-offs (but I'm not in the business of removing outliers).
And yes he may well get a 120+ score this week - so if you feel strongly about Gray then bring him in - The stats are there to guide you, but you don't want to be like poor Ned and get talked out of something you think is a good idea.

Stick to your guns, and if you think Gray is a gun - stand by it and bring him in.

Based on scoring history he could be a low end keeper, but from 2012 to 2015 his averages have decreased every year from 95 to 86. His team mate Burgoyne has also dropped considerably.

Also around that price you have Nick Haynes and Ben Reid - the latter is having a decent year by his standards.

Defenders are always that bit harder to pick, so choosing a mid-ranger could be a good idea (at least you haven't blown too much money).

Was a bit rushed this week, but have now added some comments to the main article with regards to these rookies.
Collins is probably top of the list, but a 3-way coin-toss after that.

Thoughts on

1. Hartley to Rance
or
2. Smith to Gray?

Like others have said, I wouldn't get Birchall. Have had him since the start and have more than once considered playing a rookie over him, not something you want from your premiums. He doesn't seem to regularly be in that top group of Hawthorn players who score well, and seems to be a part of their mid-tier group who occasionally score ok.

Kind of want to gold trades (16 left), however don't want to miss out on cheap premiums like Gray or Priddis.
First trade would be BenKen to Paine to free up cash for Hewett to:

Option 1: Go for Priddis (BE 98)

Option 2: Go for Gray (BE 78)

Option 3: Don't rade due to low trades and Hewett has room to grow (BE: 28)

Thanks!

I was going to toss up deciding between Steven and R Gray for my upgrade but have decided with Gray because Steven has the round 13 bye.

Think Collins looks the best but with unknown job security.
I think McDonald is the safest pick in that I think he'll stay in the team for a while. He is just probably too expensive at $184k
I don't think Marsh and Smedts will last