Best Buys Round 15 - Bye-Bye Byes

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Jun 29, 2016.

By tipbetpro on Jun 29, 2016 at 10:20 PM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2016
    Messages:
    124
    Likes Received:
    193
    The NRL tips are out (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/kzu9o) – and no byes over there either, they have the full 8 games this week.

    This week for Buy of the Week, I’m giving it to someone who deserves a 2nd chance, although they really didn’t get a first chance.
    I kind of named him previously, but he now looks like he is good value again.

    I am of course talking about Monty. At only $475k and with an average above 100 and looking at increase of ~$15k or more, Monty is great value and deserves a spot as the one and only BoTW.

    Again, the format below is:
    POSITION Name (CLUB) – current price (expected increase) – AVERAGE

    DEFENDERS
    Rookies:
    M/D Thomas Cole (WCE) - 117k (+21k) - AVG=45
    DEF Aliir Aliir (SYD) - 124k (+21k) - AVG=46

    Keepers:
    DEF Alex Rance (RIC) - 472k (-2k) - AVG=96
    DEF Matthew Boyd (WBD) - 526k (-11k) - AVG=101
    DEF Kade Simpson (CAR) - 528k (-1k) - AVG=105
    DEF Sam Docherty (CAR) - 567k (+7k) - AVG=110

    Midfielders
    Rookies:
    I couldn't see any??
    Keepers: (There are lots of good mids – this list is not exhaustive)
    MID Adam Treloar (COL) - 526k (-5k) - AVG=109 (did well last week and appears to have turned around hi dry spell pre-bye)
    MID Daniel Hannebery (SYD) - 562k (-15k) - AVG=115
    MID Trent Cotchin (RIC) - 569k (-6k) - AVG=110
    MID Rory Sloane (ADE) - 581k (+7k) - AVG=110
    MID Gary Ablett (GCS) - 606k (+14k) - AVG=120
    MID Scott Pendlebury (COL) - 617k (-14k) - AVG=118
    I'm sure there are more, but you get sick of naming mids.

    Rucks
    Rookies:
    RUC Sam GRIMLEY (ESS) - 124k (+13k) - AVG=38

    Keepers:
    RUC Max GAWN (MEL) - 581k (+1k) - AVG=117

    Forwards
    Rookies:
    M/F Tom Phillips (COL) - 117k (+52k) - AVG=76
    FWD Nicholas Kommer (ESS) - 124k (+10k) - AVG=35

    Keepers:
    M/F Leigh Montagna (STK) - 475k (+17k) - AVG=101 (BoTW!!!)
    M/F Zac Merrett (ESS) - 516k (0k) - AVG=104
    FWD Brett Deledio (RIC) - 520k (+1k) - AVG=99
    M/F Dustin MARTIN (RIC) - 578k (+20k) - AVG=111

    Still a week away – either due to a bye, or only having played one game:
    DEF Nathan Broad (RIC) - 117k - AVG=66
    DEF Jason Ashby (ESS) - 165k - AVG=53
    DEF Heath Shaw (GWS) - 579k - AVG=112
    F/D Eric Hipwood (BRL) - 162k - AVG=56
    FWD Jarrod Garlett (GCS) - 185k - AVG=58
    M/F Dayne Zorko (BRL) - 532k - AVG=113
    MID Stephen Coniglio (GWS) - 531k - AVG=110
    MID Lachie Neale (FRE) - 559k - AVG=113
    MID Joel Selwood (GEE) - 591k - AVG=113
    MID Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) - 745k - AVG=135
    RUC Todd Goldstein (NTH) - 539k - AVG=113

    So that’s Best Buys for this week.

    Good luck to all with your trades and hopefully some wins on the weekend. For all your trade discussion feel free to join us in the comments section below.

    Cheers

    http://www.tipbetpro.com/ - your statistically tested guide to tipping and betting on AFL, NRL and Cricket
     
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2016
    tipbetpro, Jun 29, 2016
    #1

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Jun 29, 2016.

  • Page 1 of 2
    1. mightyhawks23
      mightyhawks23
      Need to upgrade a defender - would've considered Gibbo and Zach Williams but they have the bye this week
      Always had plans to bring back JJ after his injury but picking him in first week back (if named tonight) seems very risky

      So it's down to
      1. McVeigh - seems to have more upside for me but has a tough 3 weeks (WB/Cats/Hawks) before a cruisy finish to the year
      Only 2 scores over a 100 in 10 games - maybe he'll come good after no preseason

      2. Rance - started the season off well but has been good without being great lately. Tough draw in SC finals (if i make it that far) with Cats and Swans in the last 4 games

      What are your guys thoughts?
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 1
      mightyhawks23, Jun 30, 2016
      #2
    2. RPritch
      RPritch
      I am 95% sure JJ will be playing for Footscray this week anyway. Out of those two I'm not sure, I'd maybe go with Rance, but he's my favourite player in the AFL so that's probably biased
      • Like Like x 2
      RPritch, Jun 30, 2016
      #3
    3. Len
      Len
      Rance is more consistent for mine
      • Like Like x 1
      Len, Jun 30, 2016
      #4
    4. brownje
      brownje
      Given the concerns around your two options I would pick JJ if he is named. Its not like his injury is an ongoing, persistent thing so why not? I really wish GWS did not have the bye as they have a good run home and some juicy options.
      brownje, Jun 30, 2016
      #5
    5. The_Swert
      The_Swert
      Luke Parker at $465k looks juicy for a guy averaging 107.

      If it wasn't for a tough run ahead for Sydney, he would be my choice for BotW.
      • Like Like x 1
      The_Swert, Jun 30, 2016
      #6
    6. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      He does look well priced, but in the last 7 games he has only score above 100 twice, and only 120 once.
      His average looks great due to his start to the season (when he got two 150+ scores and two 129s), but he does need to turn it around - will he do it? Maybe - but I don't know enough about the Swans to recommend him. Also, he burnt me after I previously recommended him as BoTW a few games before his form slump.

      Other players who have a high average compared to their price and may be of interest for those chasing a bargain are:
      Waite 96/385k (surely no one would consider him - again his average is due to early season form)
      Hall 94/400k (as above)
      Buddy 95/440k (I reckon some may consider Buddy, on the back of prior year form)
      Sam Mitchell 105/487k (Scored 152 last week, so maybe he has turned it around)
      Ward 109/506k (Got a respectable 122 last week, so again could be considered after the bye)
      tipbetpro, Jun 30, 2016
      #7
    7. Waldo666
      Waldo666
      OK so try to keep things simple.....one here for the thumbs....

      :thumbsu: Cotchin
      :thumbsd: Hannebery
      • Dislike Dislike x 15
      • Like Like x 2
      Waldo666, Jun 30, 2016
      #8
    8. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      JJ named if anyone is considering him this week or 2nd game back
      • Like Like x 1
      TheTassieHawk, Jun 30, 2016
      #9
    9. brownje
      brownje
      I'm doing it. My season is shot so I need to take a risk. It's not a recurring injury and if he matches early season form he could be a steal.
      • Like Like x 2
      brownje, Jun 30, 2016
      #10
    10. Waldo666
      Waldo666
      I'm very tempted to correct my mistake and get him back in for Biggs but don't have the luxury of that many trades plus would like to see him for a week first anyway. Also Biggs was actually playing really well when JJ was in the side.
      Waldo666, Jun 30, 2016
      #11
    11. Waldo666
      Waldo666
      ....and its Hannebery just in a close one ;)
      • Like Like x 3
      Waldo666, Jun 30, 2016
      #12
    12. IPOD
      IPOD
      Wanted thoughts on the following. I was looking at moving on Rich to Laird but dont have the $$$ to do it. Can make it happen with 2 trades which would be Davis out maube for Joyce but apprehensiveabout bringing Joyce in. On the other hand i have 18 this week (it was Hartley as my 18th man) and dont need to trade!

      TU - Do the 2 trades and go with it
      TD - Live with Rich and Hold those precious trades (have 11 left)
      • Dislike Dislike x 3
      IPOD, Jul 1, 2016
      #13
    13. IPOD
      IPOD
      Or Rich to JJ
      • Like Like x 1
      IPOD, Jul 1, 2016
      #14
    14. Len
      Len
      Feels sideways to me, unless you need the extra body this week, even then it's sideways with a purpose
      Len, Jul 1, 2016
      #15
    15. sleeprequired
      sleeprequired
      cant decide

      Bring in Joyce GC rookie 122k
      Bring in Broad Rich rookie 118k
      • Option 2 Option 2 x 1
      sleeprequired, Jul 1, 2016
      #16
    16. mightyhawks23
      mightyhawks23
      Probably depends on what the rest of your bench looks like
      I've still got Tucker and Collins (will cash in one in the coming weeks) in the backline as bench cover for the rest of the year so I traded Ruggles for Broad for cash generation
      As long as he plays this week, he could not play rest of the year and I will still have one of Tucker/Collins as bench cover
      mightyhawks23, Jul 1, 2016
      #17
    17. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      One thing I'd love to run the numbers on (won't happen this week) is - how well do players do when they comeback from injuries?
      e.g. JJ is about to comeback after a decent stint being injured, should we expect him to meet his average?
      Obviously every case is different, and you'd only want to look at SC relevant players (averages above 90 or so) but it'd still be good to know.
      tipbetpro, Jul 1, 2016
      #18
    18. Len
      Len
      It would be interesting to know if there are identifiable trendlines, anecdotally you'd think the type of injury, length of time off and the pre-injury output of the player definitely play a factor
      Len, Jul 1, 2016
      #19
    19. sleeprequired
      sleeprequired
      I pulled the trigger on Joyce for D8, D7 is Collins with a full premo defense. I actually only had 16 players this week but went

      Rich -> Docherty +25 avg (first sideways of the year) +1 on field
      Ruggles -> Joyce to pay for above +1 on field. Broad was tempting but will most likely lose his spot to Bachelor so.....
      Kerridge -> Mont upgrade like every other person i know this week.

      Really, REALLY wanted to do Rich -> JJ but too risky with this few trades left
      sleeprequired, Jul 1, 2016
      #20
    Page 1 of 2

Share This Page