Round 15 Tips & Mid-Season TBP All-Australian

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Jun 30, 2016.

By tipbetpro on Jun 30, 2016 at 6:55 PM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

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    A combination of running out of ideas and inspired by Browny’s All-Australian Team on The Couch on Monday Night we thought this week we’d take a look at who are the current top point scorers in the TBP Model by position for season 2016 (minimum 10 games to qualify and then all based on averages).

    So without further ado, here is the current TipBetPro All-Australian Team.
    upload_2016-6-30_16-51-11.png

    Backs – Our model favours creative, “attacking” defenders and so it is no surprise that Alex Rance and Josh Gibson stand out as the best in that department when it comes to KPDs. GWS duo Zac Williams and Heath Shaw are joined by the Dogs Matthew Boyd and Carlton’s Sam Docherty as our best small/medium defenders whilst much improved Jasper Pittard earns himself a spot on our bench. If are theoretical opponent has a tall forward line, we might consider West Coast’s Jeremy McGovern but with so many good small/mediums we have left McGovern out of our team. Meanwhile veteran Corey Enright was extremely unlucky to miss out on a spot with Pittard only just edging him from a spot on our bench.

    Midfield – Soooo many good midfielders! Paddy Dangerfield and (perhaps surprisingly to some) Scott Pendlebury are TipBetPro’s number 1 and 2 ranked player both overall and in season 2016 and thus get the two rover spots. That duo are followed by Josh Kennedy (of the Sydney variety), Jack Steven (who we perhaps have misplaced on the wing) and Gary Ablett whilst Dan Hannebery is a clear stand out as the number 1 genuine winger in the competition. So many players unlucky to get a birth as midfielders unsurprisingly dominate our model rankings. Rory Sloane, Dustin Martin and Marcus Bontempelli stand out as the most unlucky players not to make our team so we have got them on our emergency list instead (and Joel Selwood can consider himself unlucky to not even be an emergency!)

    Ruck – We have two rucks. Why? Well Nic Naitanui is 4th and Max Gawn is 6th in the TipBetPro player rankings this season and we’re not prepared to leave one of them out. If we could justify getting a 3rd in (Todd Goldstein is 12th) then we would (with Naitanui’s injury I suspect next time we do this we will have Goldy in the team).

    Forwards – It has been a great year for tall forwards and so we’ve “gone tall” with Josh Kennedy (this time of the West Coast variety), Buddy Franklin, Josh Jenkins all making our starting 18 and Gold Coast’s Tom Lynch on the bench. The small/mid forward line was trickier and we’ve had to make some tough decisions here. Some may say that Dayne Zorko and Robbie Gray aren’t true forwards but with both players averaging at least a goal a game, we have justified sneaking them in (Dustin Martin misses out on one of these spots with only 6 goals from 12 games this season). They are joined by stand-out small forward Cyril Rioli to leave a host of players in the unlucky basket including Toby Greene, Brent Harvey and Eddie Betts.

    So what do you think? What have we got right and who is wrong? Can a system that has two Suns, only one Cat and no Roos really be right? As always love to hear your thoughts.

    Round 15 Tips
    And finally, our tips for Round 15 are as follows. Our TipBetPro model has leaned towards the favourites this week … but for several games only just! For the punters amongst you – we haven’t tipped them … but the Tigers are way better value than a $3+ shot. Check out our full reviews at http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/cee5
    upload_2016-6-30_16-53-59.png

    Should you want any stats looked at for next week’s TooSerious feature article, let us know and we’ll be sure to give it a go!
     
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Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Jun 30, 2016.

    1. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      nice work mate !!
      • Like Like x 1
    2. BreakerJ
      BreakerJ
      Why Suns over Saints. I personally would have the Saints about 25 - 20 point fav?
      • Like Like x 1
    3. RPritch
      RPritch
      Agree, I also think Carlton will beat Collingwood by 15-25 points, but my tipping is never any good :(
    4. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      The Suns side named this week is not the same as that which has lost 10 in a row and we have it as comfortably the best Gold Coast side named this season. In fact the Suns hold both an experience and player rankings edge over the Saints in our model this week. With St Kilda missing key defenders Fisher and Dempster there is a risk the Saints will be exposed by Tom Lynch whilst May and Thompson are well equipped to handle the Saints talls at the other end.
      St Kilda are heavily punished in our model from this being an interstate game (where they have been awful this season) and so the only thing that we have in their favour is their form (both an individual player and team perspective) which is significant and very nearly swung the tip the Saints way.
      For ours though, we favour Gold Coast in a close one.
      • Like Like x 2
    5. walesy
      walesy
      Good looking squad, shame you couldn't squeeze Zerrett in there! :D

      How close was he to making the cut?
    6. Len
      Len
      Interesting side, shows the quality of mids in the comp when Ward, Shiel and Coniglio don't even rate a mention
    7. Bearfly
      Bearfly
      Have to agree with your view on the Suns v Saints game - was very impressed with how the Suns played against Hawks on Sunday and I can see their forward line really stretching the Saints backs (not only Lynch up there, but Day and Wright as well - thought Wright really stood up against Hawks).
      Would not surprise me to see Saints try the Ross match-up on Ablett like they did with Danger on Saturday night - but Ablett has had years of copping tags whereas Danger has been know to struggle against a hard tag in the past.
      Am really liking this tip because I decided to go with Suns as well, then after I submitted my tips for the round I decided to have a look at what TBP tipped :thumbsu::D
    8. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      Zac Merrett is our 40th ranked player for 2016 but 28th ranked midfielder so realistically a fair way off ... sorry!
    9. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      I know right! For what it is worth - Ward is our 15th ranked player (11th ranked mid), Shiel 19th (13th ranked mid) and Coniglio 28th (20th ranked mid) for the season to date. So given we named 9 midfielders (including emergencies) in our original squad of 25 - Ward and Shiel would definitely make the "2nd" team. Competition is still fierce though - Ward, Shiel, Treloar, Libba, Parker, Neale, Viney, Selwood and Sidebottom is not a bad "2nd team" of mids ... and Sam Mitchell, Congilio, Priddis, Cotchin etc make a great start towards the 3rd team!
      • Like Like x 1
    10. RPritch
      RPritch
      Good points made for the Suns and I agree with your thoughts on Richmond, that you wouldn't tip them but $3+ is over the odds, might make them a good line bet. However, I'd like to know your thoughts on Carlton vs Collingwood. Do you just rank the Collingwood side as stronger on paper than Cartlon's. I watched Carlton closely last week and don't worry about the margin, they were impressive. GWS at home is the toughest fixture in the game and they really put it up to them for 3 quarters
      • Like Like x 1
    11. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      Yes we have Collingwood with both an experience and talent edge for this match-up (interestingly first time around we had the opposite - which turned out to be the right call!). We have concerns over the Blues ability to kick a winning score, midfield depth with no Murphy (heavily reliant on Gibbs and Cripps) and KPD capacity to shut down all of Cox, Cloke and Moore (who is a highly rated youngster in our model!). The Blues biggest chance is if they can force some sloppy ball into the Pies forward line as the one area where we have Carlton with a clear advantage is rebounding defenders through the likes of Simpson and Docherty in particular. Just a few too many areas point Collingwood's way though.
      • Like Like x 1
    12. walesy
      walesy
      He's a forward in Supercoach! :p Just squeeze him in the forward pocket. :D
      • Like Like x 1

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