The NRL tips are out (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/kzu9o) – and they have byes so only 4 games this week, but speaking of which how good is it not having the byes in AFL. Now if only something could be done about these annoying Thursday night games if they aren’t going to have all the teams announced.

Last week, in a comment about JJ, I mentioned I’d love to run the numbers on how well players did coming back from injuries – especially in their first week back. Well I started to look back at 2015 players who averaged more than 90 and missed at least 5 games (there weren’t that many). I haven’t finished the analysis, but in general I have seen that their first game back was a bit lower than average, sometimes a lot lower, but there were a few players who managed to comeback all guns blazing. Of course it most likely depends on the type of injury, were they rested for enough weeks, did they play a game in the reserves to get their fitness back, and of course last year they may have even been given one of the dreaded vests in their first game back (I’ll look at that if I bother to complete my analysis).

Meanwhile, JJ got 88 last week which was 17 less than his average and he dropped about 10k – make of that what you will. He is now worth just over $450k and still averages 102 – not bad for a defender and good enough to make him this week’s BoTW (apologies to those who brought him in last week).

Again, the format below is:
POSITION Name (CLUB) – current price (expected increase) – AVERAGE

DEFENDERS
Rookies:
DEF Nathan Broad (RIC) - 117k (+36k) - AVG=60 (Expect Richmond to invest in youth for the remainder of the season which bodes well for Broad)
DEF Aliir Aliir (SYD) - 124k (+21k) - AVG=46 (Ted Richards impending return makes an Aliir return unlikely)
F/D Eric Hipwood (BRL) - 162k (+23k) - AVG=56 (1st Round pick should play out season from here)

Keepers:
DEF Jason Johannisen (WBD) - 453k (+5k) - AVG=102 (BoTW – do you risk the curse?)
DEF Matthew Boyd (WBD) - 523k (+3k) - AVG=103
DEF Kade Simpson (CAR) - 537k (+4k) - AVG=106
DEF Sam Docherty (CAR) - 566k (-11k) - AVG=109 (May now be over priced)
DEF Heath Shaw (GWS) - 579k (-23k) - AVG=112 (Wait a week or two – unless you think he is good for 180)

Midfielders
Rookies:
MID Corey Wagner (NTH) - 117k (+18k) - AVG=42 (A possible exclusion should Wells/Waite return)
MID Matthew Kennedy (GWS) - 167k (+18k) - AVG=51 (First round pick has shown a bit but plenty of competition for spots at the Giants)
MID Rhys Mathieson (BRL) - 174k (+35k) - AVG=67 (Hopefully can retain his spot following impressive performance against Tigers)

Keepers: (There are lots of good mids – this list is not exhaustive)
MID Luke PARKER (SYD) - 485k (+28k) - AVG=111 (A former BoTW, but is now good value again, hopefully can replicate last week’s performance)
MID Callan Ward (GWS) - 507k (-1k) - AVG=109 (Like Ward, is well priced for his average)
MID Adam Treloar (COL) - 507k (+1k) - AVG=107 (As above)
MID Stephen Coniglio (GWS) - 531k (+14k) - AVG=110
MID Daniel Hannebery (SYD) - 546k (-1k) - AVG=116
MID Lachie Neale (FRE) - 559k (+9k) - AVG=113
MID Rory Sloane (ADE) - 589k (+3k) - AVG=110
MID Joel Selwood (GEE) - 591k (-2k) - AVG=113
MID Gary Ablett (GCS) - 611k (-1k) - AVG=117 (Had a shocker last week, so maybe look elsewhere)
MID Scott Pendlebury (COL) - 617k (0k) - AVG=121
MID Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) - 745k (-10k) - AVG=135 (Wait a week or two – unless you think he is good for 160)

Rucks
Rookies:
Keepers:
RUC Todd Goldstein (NTH) - 539k (-4k) - AVG=113
RUC Max GAWN (MEL) - 574k (-5k) - AVG=115

Forwards
Rookies:
M/F Tom Phillips (COL) - 165k (+25k) - AVG=60 (Has looked okay but job security at risk as the Pies have a few returning)

Keepers:
M/F Leigh Montagna (STK) - 484k (-2k) - AVG=99 (The curse gained momentum last week, but Monty still looks to be good value)
FWD Brett Deledio (RIC) - 521k (-1k) - AVG=99
M/F Zac Merrett (ESS) - 523k (+7k) - AVG=105
M/F Dayne Zorko (BRL) - 532k (-4k) - AVG=113 (Has come down a lot in value the last few weeks)
M/F Daniel Wells (NTH) - 536k (+11k) - AVG=106 (May not play this week)
M/F Dustin MARTIN (RIC) - 593k (-11k) - AVG=109

Still a week away – either due to a bye, or only having played one game:
DEF Mitchell Brown (WCE) - 134k - AVG=48
DEF Billie SMEDTS (GEE) - 190k - AVG=57
DEF Heath Shaw (GWS) - 579k - AVG=112 (As per the list above – he’ll probably comedown in price)
FWD Jack Silvagni (CAR) - 117k - AVG=70
FWD Jarrod Garlett (GCS) - 185k - AVG=58
FWD Patrick McGinnity (WCE) - 200k - AVG=97 (Another score like that and you’d have to consider him next week)
MID Trent Cotchin (RIC) - 542k - AVG=107 (Completely tagged out of the game against Port)
MID Jack Steven (STK) - 562k - AVG=104 (Should drop in value over the next two weeks)
MID Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) - 745k - AVG=135 (As per the list above – he’ll probably comedown in price)

So that’s Best Buys for this week.

Good luck to all with your trades and hopefully some wins on the weekend. For all your trade discussion feel free to join us in the comments section below.

Cheers

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