Following the conclusion of the MSD. The run home will be posted on a weekly basis until the top 8 is secure. Who comes home with a wet sail, who chokes in 2016?
The run home always throws up many commutations and permutations. Four weeks out and 2 teams are certainties and 4 others a sure bet. The battle will come for the last two spots in the 8 as up to 8 teams hold some hope of getting some finals action in 2016 Ararat 12 & 1 1323ppg The pacesetter who will start favourite in all remaining games. Top of the table clash in R15 as they travel to Blanchetown and an equally mouthwatering match against the next highest ppg team in King Island in R16 R14: Hughenden R16: King Island R15: Blanchetown R17: Banchang Prediction - First 15 & 2 A top 2 spot is assured at this point of the season the Armadillos are eyeing off a second FU crown. Might drop a game on the run home Blanchetown 11 & 2 1229ppg Dour and determined the Bunyips Just keeping finding a way to win. As the opposition you always feel you’re in with a chance as they aren’t the highest scoring team going around. Can they release the shackles as we nearer the finals? Will they go one better in 2016? R14: Christmas Island R16: Coolgardie R15: Ararat R17: Serengeti Prediction - Second 14 & 3 Will be eyeing 3 wins in the last four games King Island 9 & 4 1309ppg Is this the year that King Island gets the monkey off the back? Will go in to this finals series with less pressure than the last 2 years. Play Ararat & Pearcedale in the run home, drop theses and a top 4 berth is on the line. Can they make a run at making the big dance this year? R14: Pearcedale R16: Ararat R15: Christmas Island R17: Coolgardie Prediction - Third 11 & 6, points for will sew up a top 4 spot. Groote Eylandt 8 & 5 1265 Lurking in 5th the reigning premier is poised to strike with a favorable draw on the way in they will start favourite in all games. Staghorn & Eden pose the most treat as they push for top 8 places. Can they make it back to back? R14: Eden R16: Southern Cross R15: Staghorn Flat R17: Korumburra Prediction - Fourth 11 & 6 not a team you want to face in the finals can go big. Pakenham 8 & 5 1244 Have flown under the radar somewhat this year with Ararat stealing the limelight. Will start favourite in all remaining games however none are certainties R14: Coolgardie R16: Eden R15: Serengeti R17: Staghorn Flat Prediction - Fifth 11 & 6 – History says 10 wins and your in. Pakenham should make finals again this year. Drop their guard and they may get swamped by those lining up outside the top 8. Pearcedale 9 & 4 1240ppg Similar to Blanchetown they know how to win, will be looking at going deep into the finals again in 2016. A tough run home for Pearcedale including King Island, Nuytsland & Banchang. Can they improve on 2015 Semi Final? R14: King Island R16: Gisborne R15: Banchang R17: Nuytsland Prediction - Sixth 11 & 6 points a near certainty for finals action Nuytsland 7 & 6 1262 2016’s big improvers and fourth highest scorer thus far in 2016 R14: Banchang R16: Korumburra R15: Gisborne R17: Pearcedale Prediction - Seventh 10 & 7 – Massive clash with Banchang this week. Finals are well within reach with winnable games against Gisborne and Korumburra. If they get to 11 & 6 top 4 beckons. Should play finals in 2016 Staghorn Flat Bulls 7 & 6 1201 Never a team you want to play, the Bulls are the most inconsistent in the FU’. Perennial fighters for a spot in the 8, 2016 is no different. R14: Southern Cross R16: Cow Bay R15: Groote Eylandt R17: Pakenham Prediction - Eighth 9 & 8 – Most likely to replace Banchang should they falter. Must win games against Southern Cross & Cow Bay. Sneak a win against Groote Eylandt or Pakenham and finals beckon. Banchang 8 & 5 1177 Another big improver? The Barcrawlers have taken their chances thus far as they sit 11th for ppg but 7th on the table. R14: Nuytsland R16: Christmas Island R15: Pearcedale R17: Ararat Prediction - Ninth 9 & 8 – History says 10 wins and you’re in. It’s too close to call for Banchang with one of the tougher runs home. However they are the incumbent and currently hold 7th. 2 wins and the Barcrawlers should get home however points for may be an issue. It’s Choppers to lose from here. Eden 6 & 7 1212ppg Can the 2015 chokers make a late charge in 2016 for a maiden finals appearance with a tricky draw? R14: Groote Eylandt R16: Pakenham R15: Cow Bay R17: Hughenden Prediction - Tenth 8 & 9 2016 looms as another heartbreak season for Eden 2017? Christmas Island 6 & 7 1180ppg Tricky run home but none are insurmountable – would definitely need 3 wins and 4 should get the job done. R14: Blanchetown R16: Banchang R15: King Island R17: Gisborne Prediction - Eleventh 8 & 9 however could be a bolter needs to snare 2 wins out of Blanchetown, King Island & Banchang to be right in the mix, may just fall short. Coolgardie 7 & 6 1145 Tough run home need 3 most likely 4 to make it given low ppg. R14: Pakenham R16: Blanchetown R15: Hughenden R17: King Island Prediction - Twelfth 8 & 9 – In the mix, will need an upset or two in the run home – likely just to miss Hughenden & Serengeti need to win all four games and hope results go their way. Not out of the equation just yet.
Quality analysis @tyze1 As a Tiges' fan I'm very used to the "we can still mathematically make finals" dance that goes on each year - but unfortunately the Smugglers are cooked for 2016! I'll take maintaining our perfect record against @martyg Bunnies as a win for the rest of the season.
Great write up. Hughenden's likelyhood of playing finals in 2016 are 0.00, the one ruck policy has been the curse firmly placed on our back since the season's predictor. Team rebuild and bring on 2017.
2 Rounds To Go - The Battle for the 8 has intensified Ararat, Blanchetown, Groote Eylandt & Pearcedale are home King Island (Ararat & Coolgardie) on the back of 2 loses its a possibility the Monarchs could miss... one win and they are home however on current form both remaining matches will prove difficult - can lose last four and fall in to the finals... Nuytsland (Korumburra & Pearcedale) In form and a victory this week should seal a top 8 position Pakenham (Eden & Staghorn Flat) Needs one out of two to seal a spot - no certainties with Eden and Staghorn still holding out hope of a finals berth Banchang (Xmas Island & Ararat) Big win on the weekend, however do not want to go into the final round needing to knock off Ararat. Massive fixture with Xmas Island this week Xmas Island (Banchang & Gisborne) Knocking on the door, match of the round v Banchang this week win and it is well within reach Coolgardie (Blanchetown & King Island) Tough matches but both matches are winnable still right in the mix if 5 - 8 falter Eden (Pakenham & Hughenden) Massive clash with Pakenham this week - lose and its curtains - Relying on other results to go their way - Unlikely Staghorn Flat (Cow Bay & Pakenham) The one point loss to Southern Cross has almost sealed the Bulls fate. Should get over the line against Cow Bay to still be in the mix come the final round. Relying on other results to go their way - Unlikely Serengeti (Hughenden & Blanchetown) On current form should win both games - the fairy tale is not over yet, points for hurt. Unlikely We could go into to the final round with 5 - 13 looking like this - it is not out of the realms 9 - 7 KIM, NV, PAKP, BB & CIS 8-8 EW, SFB, CP & SB Similarly the 8 could be settled after this round if KIM, NV, PAKP & BB win and CP & CIS lose - but thats no fun is it! Match of the Round - Christmas Island v Banchang its 8th v 9th with 52 points separating these teams YTD Still all to play for.
Interesting stuff @tyze1 I want to see my team win both games and make the finals, but I also want to see every other fringe team around me get up, just to keep everyone on their toes! For those that don't make the 8, we can organise another losers finals series again (I'll probably end up participating in this one!)
So with apologies to @choppers it looks like everyone is a Smuggler fan this weekend to keep the race for the 8 open. I'm sure it's the Richmond fan in me, but I'm still backing Xmas Island in to finish ninth on % for the 2nd consecutive season.
The 8 will come down the final round although not as many spots are up for grabs as we'd like to see. The Mid table log jam sees 9 teams (5th - 13th) separated by just 8 points. The incumbents King Island - Safe will make the 8, can finish as high as second - Can end Coolgardie's run in the final round Nuytsland - As per above safe will make the 8, can finish as high as second - Cracker v Pearcedale in the final round Banchang - Likely to be safe. Can drop out if the following occurs Loses to Ararat Pakenham defeat Staghorn Flat Coolgardie wins and outscores Banchang by 569 points Pakenham - Scenario is simple win and finals happen. Can drop out of the 8 if Loses to Staghorn Flat & Coolgardie wins or Loses to Staghorn Flat & anyone of the following occurs Eden wins and outscores Pakenham by 205 points Staghorn Flat win outscores Pakenham by 485 points Xmas Island win outscores Pakenham by 682 points The Challengers Coolgardie - Needs to win and rely on any of the following Staghorn Flat defeating Pakenham If Banchang lose, outscoring them by 569 points Eden - Needs to win and rely on: Staghorn Flat defeating Pakenham, King Island defeating Coolgardie & outscoring Pakenham by 205 points Staghorn Flat & Christmas Island need minor miracles to make it. Serengeti - I'm not sure its mathematically possible. Still all to play for in the final week.
So, all I have to do is get my boys to outscore @choppers by 569 points...??? I think a few of the Thaiboys might be coming down with a bout of Bali Belly this weekend (close enough!!!)