2017 The FU Run Home - Spoon Race

Discussion in 'ORFFU' started by fresh, Jul 31, 2017.

  1. fresh

    fresh Well-Known Member

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    In seasons past, 16 losses would guarantee you the coveted PSD pick #1. However, this year we've had the misfortune of good drafting, youngsters getting regular game time and improving, as well as coaches chasing 4 points and another 'W' in the recent results column. Disgusting. This untanking is a blight on the game. All these terrible things combined have meant 2017 is the tightest race for the spoon in FU history.

    Had I thought of this idea a few weeks ago then there might have been more than 4 teams with the mathematical opportunity to obtain some kitchenware and pick #1. But frankly I'm tired, working 9-5 in a fabric covered cubicle sucks the creativity out of me and it wasn't until late last week when there was talk of cream whiskey and beer that I got myself some REAL alcohol (a bottle of Glen Grant). After a couple of nights of pizza and scotch with my wife and seeing the opportunity that Cow Bay had at winning something again, my brain sparked back into action and life had meaning again.

    There are 4 teams vying for PSD pick #1 this year: Banchang (4 wins), Hughenden (4 wins), Cow Bay (5 wins) and Gisborne (5 wins). This last round has the added awesomeness of the 18th placed Barcrawlers up against 15th placed Gisborne. Without further ado, here are your potential spooners for 2017...

    Banchang 4 & 12, 18117 Points For - 18th
    Lose to Gisborne and the spoon is practically guaranteed to go on a bar crawl. As long as they don't score 768 points more than Hughenden and the PDawgs lose then they obtain their first PSD pick #1 and wooden spoon.

    Win and a number of things need to go their way:
    It needs to be a close match in that they cannot outscore Gisborne by more than 100 points; and
    Hughenden needs to win and cannot score 768 points less than the Barcrawlers (pfft yeah right); and
    Cow Bay needs to win. They can also lose but will need to score 686 points less.

    Hughenden 4 & 12, 18885 Points For - 17th
    Lose to Coolgardie and they will need Banchang to defeat Gisborne to have the opportunity to call out the first player on PSD draft night. They can still claim pick #1 in the unlikely event Banchang doesn't and they score 768 points less than the Barcrawlers.

    Win their match and the unlikeliest of results need to occur to win the spoon...
    Banchang needs to defeat Gisborne; and
    Banchang needs to score 768 points more than the PDawgs;
    and Gisborne need to score 667 points more; and
    Cow Bay needs to win. You'd get better odds betting on Brisbane against the Bulldogs this weekend.

    Cow Bay 5 & 11, 17431 Points For - 16th
    Lose and a 3rd spoon is pretty much theirs as long as they don't outscore Banchang by 686 points. With Cameron and Blakely out with injuries this is a not so small possibility.

    Win and PSD pick #2 is theirs if both Hughenden and Gisborne win. Pick #3 is theirs if one of these teams lose. In the unlikely event they both lose, pick #4 and a 15th placed finish will be etched in Cow Bay's history books. A carnival and street parade will also be held in the street of Cow Bay.

    Gisborne 5 & 11, 18218 Points For - 15th
    Need to lose to Banchang and score at least 101 points less than the Barcrawlers to have any hope of getting spooned. Both Hughenden and Cow Bay also need to claim the 4 points for the miracle to happen.

    Win and pick #4 or pick #5 are heading to Gisborne.

    That's it! Good luck to everyone, even if you're not in the spoon race.
     
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  2. choppers

    choppers Well-Known Member

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    Great job, @fresh ........I better have my crystal ball working overtime, when I post my team early on Wednesday.
    Have injury doubts on Sinclair,Wright,Sexton and Langdon.....o_Oo_Oo_O
     
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  3. JPK

    JPK Moderator Staff Member

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    This is absolutely classic!!! Great work mate.
    ....and I'm glad my cream whisky has inspired you to such creativity :D
     
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  4. DamoH

    DamoH Well-Known Member

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    Gold!
     
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  5. fresh

    fresh Well-Known Member

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    Once the sun rose after a massive night I ran potential results through my patented FU match simulator to generate a probability for each team winning PSD pick #1 and getting spooned this year. They tell you to run the results 10,000 times to reduce the noise in the results. I dunno. I did this once and there was plenty of noise from the hecklers. If I continued doing it there would be more noise not less. I'm not sure about these so called 'scientists' and their 'research'.

    Odds of getting the 2017 Wooden Spoon and PSD Pick #1:
    Banchang 50%
    Cow Bay 35%
    Hughenden 10%
    Gisborne 5%

    The threepeat for Cow Bay is in trouble.

    A photo from this morning's draw courtesy of Cow Bay Photography
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. wrightbrendan

    wrightbrendan Well-Known Member

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    Brilliance! Top work @fresh
     
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  7. choppers

    choppers Well-Known Member

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    I know just the place to put it.....had a bit of a light problem when taking this photo....:(:(:(:(:(

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Batfink

    Batfink Well-Known Member

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    I had it all sown up until the Baracudas choked last week.

    Great write up Fresh
     
  9. choppers

    choppers Well-Known Member

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    Witts (Gisborne ) is OUT and no ruck to take his place, and his place for The Suns will be taken by Currie, who happens to be a member of The Barcrawlers list.

    Not looking good for @Tomster

    Just another twist in the 2017 ORFFU story. The "spoon" might not be on its way to Thailand after all.;););)
     
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  10. fresh

    fresh Well-Known Member

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    Stay positive @choppers don't give up hope yet!
     
  11. choppers

    choppers Well-Known Member

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    @fresh . I'm hangin' in there.:):):).

    Young midfielder Brayden Fiorini (hamstring) and ruckman Jarrod Witts (shoulder)also sustained injuries during the clash with Richmond that have effectively ruled them out of the coming weeks.



    Although he's lost Fiorini as well.
     
  12. Tomster

    Tomster Well-Known Member

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    Well I'm not sure how to respond to this. On the inside, it's a YAY, but I guess I should portray an angry attitude. So grrr
     
  13. fresh

    fresh Well-Known Member

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    A big congrats goes out to Head Coach of Banchang FC @choppers for taking out the 2017 FU Wooden Spoon and the coveted #1 PSD pick!

    The tense weekend saw 17th placed Hughenden do their bit to keep their team score low, losing to Coolgardie by 177 points to keep their Points For as low as they could. This ensured their worst result would be a 17th placed finish and pick #2 in next year's draft. The only way they could snag the spoon from here was if Banchang secured a win over the weekend.

    Cow Bay didn't have much of a chance to win and they didn't disappoint, going down to Serengeti by 113 points. From here it was either a 16th or 17th placed finish depending on the Banchang vs Gisborne result. Threepeat definitely has a better ring to it but the Crocs will have to be content with being back to back spooners for the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Is this result a precursor for Groote's premiership aspirations? We'll see over the next 3 weeks.

    Meanwhile, the Banchang v Gisborne result was going to shape the bottom 4 (or should it be top 4?). Hughenden were going to secure either pick #1 or pick #2, Cow Bay either pick #2 or pick #3. Gisborne was going to get pick #4 no matter what but had the opportunity to make sure pick #1 wasn't going to get sent over to Banchang. It was a match that didn't disappoint, Banchang fought hard to make sure they didn't outscore Gisborne by more than 100 points and Gisborne did their best to give the Barcrawlers a win. The result was a 5 point margin, 4 points going to Gisborne, a wooden spoon and pick #1 to Banchang.

    @choppers now has the opportunity to not bother with making a short list for his first pick in next year's draft, an opportunity afforded to only 2 other coaches in FU history. However, there are a few youngsters crossing their fingers they'll slip past Banchang and Hughenden hoping to play with the likes of Gunston, DeGoey, Blakely and Jones next year.

    2017 Wooden Spoon Ladder
    upload_2017-8-7_10-59-8.png
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2017
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  14. Tomster

    Tomster Well-Known Member

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    Fixed your error @fresh but great write-up!
     
  15. fresh

    fresh Well-Known Member

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    Lol, my bad, that's a massive oversight on my part letting an error like that slip through :)
     
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