So it all comes down to this. Everything that has played out over season 2017: some big trades, some surprising omissions, some alleged tanking, some funny banter, some terrible banter, some great planning and some poor planning, some cursing at AFL coaches and selection panels, and even a win by @bryzza and the Nuytsland Vikings in the All-ORFF knockout championship, and we come down to the big one, the 2017 Biggest Loser playoff, between the team missing their mascot: @Tylo and the King Island Monarchs (where has king Nic Naitanui been, and when will he be back???) and the boys trying to harpoon their chances at some glory this year: @HOLKY and the Eden Whalers. In the Monarchs corner we have the Richmond-Cats backline, the Suns midfield (yeah, that sounds imposing to me too!), and the Adelaide forward line. In the Whalers corner we have no such comparison, as we have an evenly balanced team, but like many a team this year, we have no ruckman (although sideshow bob is a great distraction!). The smart money will be on King Island in this one, but there'd be no surprises if Eden managed to pull it together and run away as the 2017 ORFFU Biggest Losers! *Newsflash* In breaking news, I've been reliably informed that there is another, some might same "more important", even possibly "more entertaining", game of footy on this weekend, as apparently @DamoH and the Christmas Island Smugglers (the ones I've been happily calling the "Budgies" all year!) will be taking one of the longest road trips in domestic sport to face @wrightbrendan and the Serengeti Buffalos, in the 2017 ORFFU Grand Final. After traveling to Nuytsland and sending the year-long favourites packing by 155 points, the Buff will be revved up and raring to go in this one. I will say that, when discussing out mid-season trade, Serengeti coach @wrightbrendan mentioned to me that he was keen to give it a really good crack this year, and that's how we came to discuss the trade of JP Kennedy and S Mumford to Africa in exchange for a couple of kids and some 2018 PSD picks - as such I'd like to reiterate my and Coolgardie's involvement in this momentous opportunity for the Buff, and I kinda hope they do it for the bloke with the best initials in the AFL. On the other side of the coin, and after traveling to their opponents home, only to realise that they were actually hosting the semi final, the Budgie Smugglers came home with the strongest statement they could possibly put forward, demolishing the perennial champs to the tune of 380 points. It was a masterclass across the field, and has shown that these boys are definitely the form team of the last few weeks, hitting their straps at just the right time (a-la the 2016 Western Bulldogs... which means they'll probably win it this year, and then be nowhere next year!) I'll happily plagarise @DamoH in his analysis that only 9 points have separated these two teams across the previous two finals, and so it should be a real close one. We probably couldn't have asked for a much better build-up to the big dance, aside from lamenting all the recent outs that have hurt the finals campaign's of so many teams, especially that of Nuytsland, who have scored more than 1000 points more than the next best team (over the 19 games they've completed) at nearly 60ppg better off. On paper they'd be the clear winners, and they can hold their heads up high knowing that they did win the ORFF Knockout comp, but also are far-and-away the strongest scoring team in the league. Unfortunately we don't play on paper, or on averages or aggregate, its one week at a time, and its head-to-head all the way through. So what do we come down to? Well, over 19 games Serengeti have scored 24,498 points (at an average of 1,298.4) while over the same period Christmas Island have scored 23,501 points (at an average of 1,236.9). Yes, it has been close over the past couple of weeks, but over the year its been the Buff by more than 50ppg. If each player named last week hits their average, and no team changes are made (which there may not be), then Serengeti will take home 1,385 points, to Christmas Island's 1,303 points, so an 80 point advantage. Its all saying to me that Serengeti are going into this one as the favourites, but I'm really hoping for a tight, hard-fought match to celebrate the culmination of the 2017 ORFFU season. Good luck to both coaches in the 2017 FU Grand final, and both coaches in the 2017 Biggest Loser.
What a great write up @JPK. I see this match coming down to a couple of key players to get the win. First up: Big Tappers - Kruezer (110.4) Vs Mummy (100.0) Mummy should have the advantage here as he averages 102.5 vs Geelong whilst Kruezer only averages 85.67 against Sydney. SC gold has it a different way with Kruezer predicted to score 118 and Mummy only 91. Mummy's high score against Geelong is a whopping 170 and Kruezer's a handy 150 Vs Sydney. This year Mummy (round 15) only managed 86 and Kruezer (round 6) only managed 79. My tip. Mummy to dominate a busted Geelong ruck division and take 20 points for @wrightbrendan The battle of the Mids are quite evident with both sides easily having the best Mids in the ORFFU. Points again will be heading to the Buffaloes. The backs are very evenly matched with possibly @DamoH just slightly ahead. Not until I had a real close look at both sides do you understand how close these two teams are! The only other match up are the spearheads up forward Smith (83.3) Vs Dixon (90.2) Both players have hit some form of late. Smith has posted back to back 118's whilst Dixon has posted a 102 and 116 in the last two weeks. Against their opponents this week, Smith has averaged 83 against the Bulldogs whilst Dixon has averaged 90 against the Suns. Smith has not played the Bulldogs this year but has posted a high score of 116 whilst Dixon has only managed 90 against the Suns in round 8 over in chickety China. The points this time going to the Smugglers but probably on 10 points the difference. My prediction for the ORFFU 2017 Grand Final - @DamoH and the Buffaloes, in a tight race until Saturday night where Paddy Dangerfield (last time they met 196) will get the job done, to win by 83 points.
Love the preparations going on! Had a full on couple of days but from tomorrow focus on the real event of the week will kick off for Serengeti!
Great stuff @martyg It will be a cracker of a Final with these two teams, looking forward to getting the updates during the weekend.
Great analysis @JPK and @martyg - there's a decent chance that with Danger, Kelly and Mummy all suiting up for the Buff on Saturday night the game could be over then. If the Smugglers can finish around 200 points down at the end of Saturday we're a chance (assuming no selection shocks).
In a semi final that pitted two of the top performing teams all year against one another, would Serengeti's finals inexperience catch them out or could the toll of injuries and suspension finally catch up with Nuytsland? The teams had met once in season 2017 with the Buffaloes running out 103 point winners in a high scoring affair back in round 8 but this was finals time and both teams were ready to go. Having made the trek from East Africa to Southern Western Australia, the strategy of taking two ruckmen into the game somewhat failed with both Mumford (71) & Longer (76) struggling to fight of the cramps developed on the flight over. However they did manage to restrict the opposition makeshift ruckmen, Motlop (23) and give their mids first use. Despite the very impressive efforts of Tom Mitchell (161), Seb Ross (114) & the retiring Sam Mitchell (110) for the Vikings the depth of quality in the Serengeti midfield was too much to overcome. Captain Danger (146) led from the front but his heir to the throne Josh Kelly (144) was more than helpful. These two were well supported by the returning JPK (110), Selwood (93) & Merrett (92) who was down on his usual best after looking a little gun shy following his recent suspension. From there the holes in the Vikings team that had been left by injured stars like Montagna, Boyd & Viney really started to show and when big Charlie Dixon (116) got on top of the makeshift defence this one was all but over. Even though Daniher (58) wasn't able to take advantage of the opportunities on offer, the Serengeti defence did enough to break even with a high performing Vikings forward line that included McLean (100), Greene (96) & Heeney (90) and in the end ran out comfortable winners. Final scores; Serengeti 1423 def Nuytsland 1268 Even though they fell 1 step short of the last match of the year, the Vikings can count the season as a success. After entering the season never having won a final in their history, they finish it ticking off a finals win, maintaining the highest average across the year and with some replacements for retiring greats in the off season should be back right at the pointy end of the season in 2018. For the Buffaloes, there is one big game left. Having previously never even made the finals it has been a giant leap forward to now be hosting the big one. Even after finishing season 2016 strongly, only the most diehard of the Serengeti faithful would have dreamt that the rise would continue this quickly. Standing in their way of ultimate glory will be the Smugglers of Christmas Island who have been writing a fairytale of their own as they have marched from 8th spot all the way through to the grand final knocking off the table topping Sangropers and perennial high achieving Barracudas in the process. The matchup brings together probably the 2 most in-form squads and a high-scoring, close battle is sure to come with the result going right down to the wire. With the added highlight of ex-players on both sides of the fence, this is going to be a match-up that will live long in the memory bank. Best of luck to @DamoH for the big game and may the best team win!
Some analysis before the big game (thanks @bryzza for the stats!); Head to Head Serengeti 3 - Christmas Island 1 Last met Serengeti 1240 def Christmas Island 1040 2 Smugglers missed the flight over and a 13 man Christmas Island outfit went down by 200 points. Best players were Heppell (CIS), Reiwoldt (SB) & Dangerfield (SB) Finals record Serengeti - 2-0 Christmas Island - 3-1 Grand Final record Serengeti - First GF Christmas Island- First GF Recent form (last 3) Serengeti - 1367 Christmas Island 1362 2017 High Score Serengeti - 1501 Christmas Island - 1432? Good luck picking a winner from that!
Massive shout out to @wrightbrendan ,a huge thank you for writing up the review even though i was the home team ...... i can be found rocking in the corner with my bottle of wild turkey honey liquor. Victor go the spoils
It's on! The visitors forward unit is functioning well early and the smugglers have jumped out to an early lead Serengeti 0/0/0 v Christmas Island 177/89/2
Some nervous performances so far for the grand final debutants but it is still the Smugglers holding the lead Serengeti 82/1/81 v Christmas Island 247/3/82
The Smugglers are keeping the scoreboard ticking over but it is only slowly, while the Buffaloes are stressing over some questionable team selections. Current scores; Serengeti 82/1/82 v Christmas Island 379/76/5
The Smugglers seem over-awed with the occasion, with only Isaac Smith out of the first 6 to take the field hitting his season average. Unfortunately not the fast start the visitors were hoping for.
Heading towards the final quarter it is the Buffaloes who have taken the lead Serengeti 1034/11/94 v Christmas Island 734/9/82 Some less than ideal performances from both sides but the Smugglers are being let down by their midfield while Captain Danger is dragging his side along. With Martin & Heppel looking large as this one reaches its climax it is still far from over
A 300 point deficit with two players in hand looks tough to rein in but with huge matches for the Tigers & Bombers today it's still possible. Best of luck to both sides.
You could almost be describing the Geelong season with this statement. (aside from last night, where GWS only turned up in patches, while the Cats dominated nearly everywhere possible)
Cheers mate - we're about 100 points off where we need to be I reckon. Time to start putting the champers on ice in Africa!
The home crowd are starting to get pretty decent excited.. Serengeti 1247/96/13 v Christmas Island 907/82/11 Going to take a Herculean effort from the likes of Martin o get the Smugglers back in contention
Martin 129 at the 5min mark of the 4th quarter! Certainly doing everything he can to get his team over the line.
Interesting last half of footy coming up. By my reckoning The Smugglers need 166 from Hurn (58*) and Lever(31*) in the 2nd half to take the prize... ( scores need to be verified) Can't see it happening....