Hey gang, ChiefBet is back for another year of oddsmaking. I look forward to the debate and counter arguments as we still have a month until the real stuff starts. Remember, gamble responsibly. ORFFA Premiership Market: 2.00 Waikickamoocow The premiers deserve the right to start odds on favourites. A quiet off-season, but given the injuries befalling their two main rivals, quiet is good. Strong across every line. 4.00 Venus Bay Would have probably been equal favourite if it wasn't for the injury to Docherty. The Vultures can cover the loss against most if not all bar the Cows, but the 30 point drop off in best 15 is significant enough to put them here. 6.00 Marble Bar The Misfits are in a similar boat to the Vultures, just replace Doherty with Zac Williams. They have handy cover in defence, just maybe a tad less scoring power forward of centre. Will still be there abouts. 8.00 Cradle Mountain & Gariwerd Both teams have clearly decided that they are in 'win now' mode with productive off seasons. Both sides boast deep and powerful midfields and will be hoping that their bookends stand up. Hard to split the pair, but it should be a close run race for the final spot in the top 4. 10.00 Foul Bay As far down the 'pecking' order as they have been since the ORFFA's inception. They still have Danger and a pretty deep midfield group, but an ageing backline and forward line leaves them more vulnerable than ever to injuries. They can still push for top 4 if everything goes their way, but with a bunch of 30 somethings and a coach too ill-disciplined to rebuild, this seems a little unlikely. 11.00 Iron Knob, Darraweit, Gundagai The Knob faces similar issues to the Chooks, just without the ruck depth. They will be hoping from a 'vintage' season from the Little Master to offset this. Darraweit were very active in the off-season and boast a team chock-full of depth, but are maybe lacking the out and out star that can average 115+ ppg in their midfield. Maybe Coniglio is that man. Gundagai may have been a surprising top 4 finisher to most (but not the bookies) last year, but the team is definitely trending the right way. They did trade out some scoring now (i.e. Rockliff) for future talent in the way of Curnow and 1st round picks, which suggests that Snoz didn't think they were quite in the premiership window yet, but next year, undoubtedly they will be. 12.00 Mount Beauty The bookies perennial favourite has let ChiefBet down one too many time. Their best is amazing, but injuries and lack of depth seem to hurt them at the worst times. They are on this line of betting until they show us consistency. 14.00 Whitsundays Despite boasting forward line depth that is the envy of most clubs, the Warriors will be stuck in mid-table again until at least next year when Rory Lobb finally gets the ruck status that this team desperately needs. 15.00 Birdsville The Battlers have done an underrated job of re-building on the fly without completely bottoming out and boast a talented young side. While they don't have the firepower to challenge for finals in 2018, they will be a tough beat for a lot of sides. 18.00 Lovely Banks & Wineglass Bay It seems that ChiefBet couldn't split these ladies last season and this season it proves to be the case once again. The climb from these two sides has been steady and will trend upwards again this year as their youth matures. 20.00 Charlie's Opening A clear rebuild strategy is occurring from coach Bandit down at the opening, but unlike the Lefties, they at least have Merrett and Bontempelli as solid building blocks. Have managed to put together the youngest list in the comp and we should see some fruit in the next 2-3 years. 21.00 Wagga Wagga In a very similar boat the Charlie's Opening, Wagga Wagga has had a significant overhaul of its list in the off-season (and mid to back end of last season) with a focus on youth. The Opening has Bont and Zach, the Wombats have Clayton Oliver and Dylan Shiel. It is a close run thing. 25.00 Nunawading A number of retirements and delistings meant some clearing out of the dead wood. A lot hinges on the fitness of Nic Nat which is a more confusing sub-plot every day. Dow and Powell-Pepper provide hope for the future. 30.00 Larrakin Lagoon Fleeced the Chooks in the Seb Ross and 1st rounder for Goldstein deal and got a couple of nice positional switches in Lachie Weller and Angus Brayshaw to lead their backline. The ruck division has some work to do, but should get a couple of jewels in the 2019 PSD that will provide hope. And, hey, they have premiership flags in their cabinet, so who really gives a stuff?
Nice assessment. Am predicting Wineglass Bay will be the smokie. Some very handy pickups in the draft.
Great stuff CR! I was a bit all over the place with my trades and I think I might regret losing Charlie Curnow and Rhys Mathieson in a few years when my old guys are past it. Maybe also Aliir Aliir, Brendan Ah Chee, Brodie Smith and Cam Guthrie. But we’ll see how it goes, hopefully can beat DMA this year at least, as our teams have often been on a similar path
Pretty hard to argue with any assesment made, seem pretty on point. My lot is probably treading water at best score wise this year, so might be relying on the other teams not doing so well, for me to do as well as last year. Some talk of Tomlinson finally being freed up to play midfield, if that happens I'm significantly improved but it doesn't feel likely.
No one at Birdsville is expecting us to finish as high as the 12th we're currently sitting at in the market. Very much a development year for the Battlers, so if we do manage to finish that high then the kids will have come on quicker than expected. The forward line is essentially wait and see and hope like hell a couple of them turn into viable best 15 options. I think I've only settled on a best 11 so far, with the remaining 4 spots open to anyone who gets a regular game.
Who? You may be right on that... we’ve forgotten all about him already Anthony Mathieson is an old friend of mine haha I’ve edited the original comment now, thanks
Same here. Reckon about 9 or 10 guys are set for spots in the 15, but there's five spots that I simply don't know about. Pre-season might shed some light, particularly regards defenders.
Very flattering CR, very flattering. Many years ago I read Wally Grout's autobiography (I assume it was ghost written). The first paragraph read something like - "I've lived my life by two rules given to me by my father. First, never give a sucker an even break. Second never back an odds on favourite at Randwick." I doubt there will be any money crossing the Tasman to find its way in the ChiefBet accounts at the current odds.
Been looking forward to this! Didn't expect to see me so short though, Docherty does dearly hurt. Happy with how I've traded and drafted to get some depth in each position however not sure I have the firepower at the moment, hopefully a player like JOM can break out and give the Vultures a boost! Cheers for the effort in doing this again CR, always a fun read
If we are depending on a vintage season from Ablett to even crack the top 8 i think we are in trouble. Our season might hinge on his AC joint.
Brilliant read as always CR. Unfortunately, Weller has another year in the midfield wilderness before he locks in a defensive post. Anyways.. This.
Thanks for the post @ChiefRussell , always great to get your views on each ORFFA club’s prospects for the upcoming season (and in some cases beyond). Hard to argue with your rankings of each club. My initial view on the top four is: Top four The dominant Cows ‘best 15’ looks to clearly be the best in the ORFFA and I would be extremely surprised if the reigning premiers didn’t finish in the top four. The Docherty injury for the Vultures and Williams injury for the Misfits are massive blows and brings them back to the pack, pacing them in a likely four-way battle with the Devils and Cockatoos for the three spots from second to fourth. Due to the Cockatoos off-season recruiting spree which landed Rockliff, Houli and others, and improvement in the Devils five ‘best 15’ players that are 23 years of age or under I expect these two clubs that were engaged in a battle for the title of masters of mediocrity from 2012 to 2016 to both reduce the gap to the Vultures and Misfits. Whilst CR’s order looks to be accurate I would have the Vultures, Misfits, Devils and Cockatoos significantly closer in the odds. The depth of CR's own Chickens is very impressive and they have been proven performers since the inception of the ORFFA. I think the door is still slightly ajar for the Chickens to get another top four finish if the players that are in their 30’s can maintain their form and/or one or two of the top five clubs have their depth tested due to injuries. In 2017 Danger won his second Les W Medal and averaged 17 points more than the second ranked player, a buffer which is equivalent to having an additional premium player in the Chickens line-up. With the Grasshoppers taking a couple of steps backwards for 2018 but further increasing their mid-long term prospects they have fallen out of top four contention for this year. I agree with CR that the Cows, Vultures, Misfits, Cockatoos, Devils and Chickens will finish in the top six however expect a sizable gap to the group of teams that will be fighting it out for seventh and eighth. In the next week I will make a post in this thread focussing on the fourth line of betting featuring the Cockatoos and Devils.
It has been a fair bit longer than the next week but anyway. Fourth line of betting featuring the Cockatoos and Devils Solid progression from the Devils and Cockatoos after battling it out for so many years for the title of masters of mediocrity to now both be in contention for a top four finish in 2018. In his odds @ChiefRussell wrote: The Cockatoos have had a massive off-season recruiting spree, landing players such as top 10 defender Bacher Houli and midfielder Tom Rockliff who is in the select group of players that have averaged over 130 SC points per game for a season. This duo significantly improves the Cockatoos best 15, however the club is the epitome of a ‘win now’ team having traded out some players that would have been very valuable in the future such as Charlie Curnow and Rhys Mathieson. The Cockatoos have 12 players in their squad that are over 27 years of age including six players in their 30’s. As result of their off-season trade acquisitions the Cockatoos are far better equipped to make a serious challenge for the ORFFA premiership in the short-term and they have got significantly more chips on the table than the Devils for 2018 and 2019. The Devils have launched operation Zorklebury to try and win a premiership whilst their two midfield superstars are still playing. Pendlebury and Zorko are both contracted until 2020 however CMD have 13 players that are 23 years of age or younger at the start of the 2018 season including five players I expect to be in the best 15 – Lever, Vlastuin, Steele, Nankervis and Membrey, there is upside with this group of players for 2018, especially the two defenders. Whilst the Devils are certainly more focussed on the ‘win now’ this has not been at the expense of mid-long term needs at this stage. In Round 1 2017 the Devils and Cockatoos battled it out for the mediocrity cup which ironically signalled an end to their mediocre days with a rare game in which two ORFFA clubs exceeded 1,400 points with the Devils winning 1,445 to 1,412. The stick approach proved very effective with both clubs intent on losing the mediocre tag. During 2018 we will find out whether the Cockatoos and Devils are effective in performing with the carrot approach as they battle it out for a top four berth and the two clubs attempt to stamp themselves as genuine premiership contenders. Looking at 2017 averages for the Cockatoos and Devils best 15 results in the Cockatoos having an advantage of about 25 points. I agree that it is hard to split the Cockatoos or Devils and which club finishes higher will probably depend on how well the Cockatoos brigade of players over 27 years of age can maintain their 2017 form or in the case of Rockliff and Steven possibly get closer to career best form vs how much the Devils players that are 23 years of age or younger can improve. Agree with CR's comments about the midfield strength and depth of the Cockatoos and Devils, it will be the performance of the forward line and defense that determines if CMD and GC can match it with the best teams in the comp. At the start of the 2018 season I would place the Cockatoos slightly ahead of the Devils due to having a more settled forward line. The only Devils forward that I am confident will average at least 80 in 2018 is former Leftie Tom Lynch. In terms of the odds that CR has set I think the $8.00 on offer for Cradle Mountain and Gariwerd represents excellent value. Both clubs will be hoping that these $8.00 odds are a good omen as these are the odds that 2017 premiers Waikickamoocow started 2017 at behind three more highly fancied teams.
Good analysis mate. I have definitely decided to try and win now whilst my older players are still young enough. If i fall short I won’t be worried, but I thought I may as well go all in. Here’s my ins and outs since the end of last season. It’s arguable whether I’ve improved my list or not, but I do also have #1 pick in the MSD. In: Scott Selwood Aaron Sandilands Tom Rockliff Bachar Houli Josh Jenkins Ryan Griffen Cam O’Shea Jarrod Garlett Dom Barry Out Rhys Mathieson Brendan Goddard Jordan Lewis Aliir Aliir Charlie Curnow Brendon Ah Chee Cam Guthrie Brodie Smith Michael Rischitelli Looking forward to seeing how we progress Dean. Good luck mate.
Eagerly waiting to see how ChiefBet assess the MSD, and how the odds may have changed from the start of the season