Upgrade season v2.0

So you doubled down last week?
Fear not, you didn’t miss out on too much. Plenty more bargains to be had.


Player of the week

Zach Merrett Ess Mid $506K BE 61 Avg 83
Yep he’s back. Three round average of 110. Still available at a sweet price. Done deal.


Premiums

Defenders

Kade Simpson Carl Def $521K BE 83 Avg 109
Feels like the new Yeo this year. Great ceiling but can’t stay on the ladder.

Elliot Yeo WC Def $532K BE 93 Avg 100
With that huge 150 now out of his calcs, Yeo has probably levelled out for now. Who am I kidding. Get on the rollercoaster and scream with 35,000 others.

Michael Hurley Ess Def $549K BE 84 Avg 105
Locked top 6 defender. Consistent as.

Shannon Hurn WC Def $480K BE 84 Avg 102
Good pick up by tk.
Shagger is certainly winding back the clock with a respectable 89 last season and backing it up with some nice tons this year. Blip on the radar in round 5 but smashed out a 130 last week to put his hand up. Signs pointing to top 10.

Alex Witherden Bris Def $500K Be 66 Avg 96
Not a noted premium but certainly continuing where he left of last season. Only one score under 89 so far. Consistent. Firming as a top 10 defender.

Jeremy Howe Coll Def $463K BE 33 Avg 95
Monster career best game last week. Just reinforces his sizable standard deviation this year. Risky.


Mids

Josh Kennedy Syd Mid $441K BE 66 Avg 86
Maybe think twice before you jump on this week’s hype train. Second ton for the year on the back of two sub 60 scores. I’d be wanting a lot more evidence to suggest he’ll be a worthwhile selection.

Jackson Macrae WB Mid $596K BE 98 Avg 123
Picked up where he left off a couple of rounds ago. Ripping it up with Suns and Lions to come. Only in 5% of teams.

Scott Pendlebury Coll Mid $572 BE 93 Avg 110
Has flown under the radar a little bit. Not anymore.

Andrew Gaff WC Mid $552K BE 82 Avg 109
Similar numbers to Pendles. Definite improvement on last year when he burnt me. Not quite over that. Others might have more compassion.

Lachie Neale Freo Mid $523K BE 45 Avg 101
Big game last week but probably warrants another look to confirm he’s turned the corner after back to back tons.

Adam Treloar Coll Mid $591K BE 59 Avg 116
Has had a field day of late going at 134 over his last 3 games. Not sure he can maintain that level of scoring. Chase points at your peril.

Joel Selwood Gee Mid $535K BE 75 Avg 111
Still getting the job done. Proven premo. Top 15 likely. Will challenge for top 10.

Patrick Cripps Carl Mid $573K BE 31 Avg 121
Another 140+ game. Top 8. Yep.


Rucks

Max Gawn Melb Ruck $608K BE 25 Avg 131
Just jumped by $43K off back to back 150+. Locked R1. Daylight R2.


Forwards

Justin Westhoff PA Fwd $511K BE 37 Avg 112
If he didn’t have that pesky round 9 bye then The Hoff would probably be this weeks best buy. Some concern on his scoring being impacted by Ryder’s return soon. On contrary, his two biggest games were in line with minimal amount of ruck work. Strong chance to be top 6 forward from here.

Mitch Robinson Bris F/M $474K BE 37 Avg 102
Travelling nicely with last 4 games at 94+. Huge POD with only 2.6% ownership. Whoa!


Rookies on the bubble

So, a whole swag of kids popped their bubble on the weekend but wait there’s more!
A couple of defenders in Cole and Duman this week, both with their pros and cons.

Thomas Cole WC Def $170K BE – 69 Avg 83

Cole is one of those guys that we had penciled in as a legitimate starting rookie in the lead up to round 1. Obviously devastating circumstances lead to his delayed bubble but I wouldn’t be jumping out of my skin to get him. Cole has played two different roles in his two games so far:

Round 5 in defense with 19 touches at 95% DE and 98 SC (77% TOG).
Round 6 up on a wing with 12 touches at 66% DE, 10 tackles, 5 Frees for and 67 SC (87% TOG).

Reports seem to suggest that his JS is pretty solid but not sure there is as much certainty around his role. Though the sample size is miniscule, his wing stint looks like kryptonite and even further flattered by 5 frees. If he conservatively went at 70 SC from now then he could make $130K at his bye but probably not much more beyond that. Nail in the coffin is the fact he’s $50K more expense than most rookies. A big chunk of change at this point of the season. At best, a warm body on the bench for the remainder of the season.


Taylin Duman Freo Def $123K BE -68 Avg 69

Not sure where the old Ross Lyon is but we’ll keep patting this one gently and hopefully things will pan out alright. Duman has the Lyon seal of approval this week, but still not sure if that’s a vote of confidence or a death sentence. However, there’s an unprecedented number of first year players continuing to get named each week at Freo and with Walters out for a couple, the JS train keeps on rolling. If anything, you would expect some of the teenagers to get a spell before 20yr old Duman.

Has played a couple of reasonable games out of defense with an 85 SC (87% TOG) and 53 SC (68% TOG), with a good DE and probably only hampered by a lower TOG last week. Certainly a better money making option as a downgrade and holds good cow potential even at a conservative 65 average. If you need the coin and can wear the shaky JS combined with the rest of your defense then jump on him. If you can wait a week on downgrades then strap yourself in for the round 7 bubble extravaganza.


There are quite a few other rookies on the bubble in Gallucci, Poholke, Lipinski and Weideman but their scoring to date doesn’t signal “cash cow”. Pass.



Premium watchlist


Daniel Rich Bris Def $502K BE 165 Avg 60

Patrick Dangerfield Gee Mid $640K BE 133 Avg 112

Tom Mitchell Haw Mid $601K BE 140 Avg 126

Dustin Martin Rich Mid $608K BE 165 Avg 121

Josh Kelly GWS Mid $602K BE 162 Avg 105

Matt Crouch Adel Mid $561K BE 167 Avg 85

Bryce Gibbs Adel Mid $517K BE 154 Avg 101

Clayton Oliver Melb Mid $570K Be 130 Avg 111




Rookie Watchlist

Ben Ronke Syd Fwd $123K (1 game @ 92)

Charlie Spargo Melb F/M $117K (1 game @ 81)

Kobe Mutch Ess Mid $123K (1 game @ 66)

James Worpel Haw Mid $117K (1 game @ 64)

Oscar McInerney Bris Ruck $123K (1 game @ 54)

Flynn Appleby Coll Def $122K (1 game @ 53)

Nick Shipley GWS Mid $117K (1 game @ 41)

Jack Petrucelle WC F/M $117K (1 game @ 12)



Smokie pick

James Sicily Haw F/D $448K BE 21 Avg 105
More of a morally speculative pick than a smokie. Still in 20% of teams.
Will he miss more games through stupidity?
You’d hope not but stranger things have happened.
Plenty of upside at low price, DPP and only one game under 110.
Coin toss.