ORFFA 2018 Grand Final & Dawson Final - Teams & Chat

I had my team primed for Round 23...just forgot to get them primed for Round 21 when I needed to win a final. Bugger.

1182/11 for the Chooks in our intra-club scrimmage. Would love a score update from the main game. Hope it's close.

 

Well done so far @Len, the Misfits are in a strong position and are going to be very difficult to beat from here. The Devils need Gresham and Membrey to kick accurately at goal tomorrow.

 

Very generous, @Len , though I think you've overstated things more than a wee bit. Any 'advice' from me, particularly early on, was probably a variation on the same theme; either:
"Just because they wear orange, doesn't guarantee they'll be a star!", or
"Not everyone wearing orange can average 100"

 

The Devils and Misfits catapult from 11th and 12th respectively at the mid-season break to ORFFA grand final berths (part 2)

Misfits and Devils in 2017

At the Cradle Mountain launch for the 2017 season the club announced that the club’s best two players Scott Pendlebury and Dayne Zorko had each signed three-year extensions, committing to the club until the end of the 2020 season. Head coach Dean Andrews and newly appointed president and proud Tasmanian Tim Alley spoke about the club’s plans for the future. Both president and coach acknowledged the Devils had been ‘masters of mediocrity’ but the duo declared that the times of mediocrity were over and that with Pendlebury and Zorko signed up the Devils had launched project Zorklebury where the club would attempt to win a premiership by 2020.

Having finished second or third last in every season from 2012 to 2016 the Misfits had been able to stockpile some elite young talent and on the eve of the 2017 season were expected to be big improvers in the next 2-3 seasons, however no-one could have anticipated just how quickly the Misfits would rise up the ORFFA ladder.

In the opening round of the 2017 season Cradle Mountain hosted arch-rival the Gariwerd Cockatoos with the losing side to be presented with the mediocrity cup. With both clubs desperate to shed the mediocre tag the game reached great heights as both sides scored in excess of 1,400 points with the Devils prevailing in a high-standard thriller 1,445 to 1,412. The Devils exploded out of the blocks to win their first five games of the season to be one of the two undefeated sides at that stage of the season along with the Venus Bay Vultures.

The Misfits recorded two wins and two losses in the opening month of the 2017 season. After Round 4, 2017 Marble Bar had a record of 20 wins and 68 losses from their five and a bit seasons in the ORFAA so no-one could have anticipated the Orange tsunami that the Misfits were about to unleash on their rivals in the ORFFA. Over the first month players had been returning from injury and momentum was building, from Round 5 onwards it all clicked at Marble Bar and amazingly they won 12 games from Round 5 to Round 17 and had a solitary loss to the Gariwerd Cockatoos by 220 points. In those last 13 weeks Marble Bar recorded more wins than they had in the previous three seasons from 2014 to 2016 combined, 12 to 11. The Misfits finished the home and away season with 14 wins, three losses and finished third on the ladder with a record of 14 wins and three losses, one game behind Venus Bay and one game ahead of fellow big improvers the Gundagai Grasshoppers.

At the mid-season break Cradle Mountain had a record of seven wins and three losses. In all three losses the Devils played well to score between 1,285 and 1,330 points, but lacked composure when the game was on the line and the three losses were by in order 26, 25 and 19 points. Whilst the Misfits were improving as the 2017 season progressed the Devils were losing momentum. Before the mid-season break the Devils averaged 1,318 points in their 10 games however this dropped to 1,259 in their seven games after the bye with only one score above 1,300 after the MSD. Cradle Mountain finished the home and away season in fifth position with 11 wins and six losses, with the Devils six losses being to the other sides in the top 7. CMD only defeated one top eight side all season – the Gariwerd Cockatoos in the very first round of the season.

In the first week of the 2017 finals Marble Bar hosted Cradle Mountain in what was Marble Bar’s first ever ORFFA final and the second final for CMD, meaning that the winner would record their first finals victory. In an extremely consistent team performance 14 Misfits scored over 75 with the only exception being Matthew Kennedy with 37, to amass a total of 1,398 to defeat Cradle Mountain by 182 points. The half-dozen Marble Bar players that registered tons were midfielders Josh Kelly (132), Marc Murphy (128), and Lachie Whitfield (105) along with defender Rory Laird (119), forward Patrick Ryder (109) and ruckman Billy Longer (108) who the club had acquired in a mid-season trade with the Devils. Too much was left to too few for Cradle Mountain with only three players scoring triple figures – defenders Michael Hurley (120) and Nick Vlastuin (115) and midfielder David Zaharakis (103). Only two Devils scored between 81 and 99 and there were four sub 65 scores.

In their 2017 preliminary final, playing in easily the biggest game of their careers the Marble Bar Misfits remained composed and executed their skills brilliantly to score 1,481 and defeat the Venus Bay Vultures by 182 points to claim an unexpected Grand Final berth. Six Misfits scored tons including a couple of previous ORFFA Award winners – 2014 Les W Medalist Callan Ward and 2014 Rising Star winner Luke Dunstan with 117 and 119 respectively. This duo were joined by two players who had served lengthy suspensions during the past 18 months – Paddy Ryder (134) and Lachie Whitfeld (134), as well as defender Rory Laird (124) and skillful midfielder Josh Kelly (144).

With their preliminary final win Marble Bar progressed to the Grand Final to play the Waikikamoocow Incorrigibles who were on a winning streak of 19 games, with the Cows previous loss occurring in Round 1 when they were undermanned with only 11 players and lost by 398 points their eventual Grand Final opponents – the Marble Bar Misfits. On the eve of the Grand Final Misfits coach @Len commented “Can't help but think we are here a year early, but now we are here hoping to take full advantage.”

In a thriller the Cows defeated the Misfits by 20 points, 1,357 to 1,337 to win the premiership. Seven Misfits scored tons – Callan Ward (136), Daniel Rich (126), Patrick Ryder (122), Billy Longer (111), Marc Murphy (108), Josh Kelly (106) and Luke Dunstan (106), however three sub 55 scores proved costly. For the Marble Bar Misfits to go from never finishing higher than 15th to falling just 21 points of the ORFFA premiership in one season was a monumental success.

 

The Devils and Misfits catapult from 11th and 12th respectively at the mid-season break to ORFFA grand final berths (part 3)

Misfits and Devils 2018 home and away seasons

In late February 2018 ChiefBet released their much anticipated Premiership odds for the upcoming ORFFA season with the Cows $2 favourites, followed by the Vultures at $4, Misfits at $6, with two former mediocre teams in the Cockatoos and Devils sharing the fourth line of betting at $8. The commentary on the lines of betting for the eventual 2018 Grand Finalists was:

6.00 Marble Bar
The Misfits are in a similar boat to the Vultures, just replace Doherty with Zac Williams. They have handy cover in defence, just maybe a tad less scoring power forward of centre. Will still be there abouts.

8.00 Cradle Mountain & Gariwerd
Both teams have clearly decided that they are in 'win now' mode with productive off seasons. Both sides boast deep and powerful midfields and will be hoping that their bookends stand up. Hard to split the pair, but it should be a close run race for the final spot in the top 4.

Having started the 2017 season in a blaze of glory only to fade as the season progressed Cradle Mountain decided to change their approach and build into the 2018 season. In Round 1 the Devils played their nemesis from the 2017 season – the Marble Bar Misfits. Cradle Mountain played quality football to score 1,295 points and record a 177 point victory against MBM who had a full 15 man team at the start of the game but due to some game-ending injuries in the first quarter were down on rotations for the rest of the game. CMD had a horror four week period, losing four consecutive games from Round 2 to Round 5 and averaging 1,182 points per game during this four-week period. Whilst the Devils had intended to follow the 2017 Cows lead by making a slow start, go under the radar and peak for the business end of the season they had well and truly overshot the mark and were in danger of their season being effectively over by the mid-season break. The Tassie football media had a field day with several articles stating that the initials CMD should stand for Consistently Mediocre Devils and pointed out that in the past 12 months from Round 6, 2017 to Round 5, 2018 Cradle Mountain had the record of seven wins and 11 losses.

The Misfits recorded three wins and two losses in the first five rounds, with one of the losses being to the Cows 1,236 to 910 in Round 5 when the Misfits were a massive five players short from their 15 man team due to an extensive injury list. Due to their injuries the Misfits were expected to lose more ground up until the mid-season break. After Round 5 the Misfits were only out of the eight by points difference, however it was critical that they remained within striking distance of the eight at the mid-season break, when they could bring in some reinforcements and there would be time for players to recover from injuries.

The turning point of Cradle Mountain’s Round 6 encounter with the Gariwerd Cockatoos, yet again the losing team would be the recipient of the mediocrity cup that both sides were desperate to avoid. In the pre-season the Devils and Cockatoos were considered to be top four contenders however after Round 5 both sides were outside the eight, the Cockatoos were ninth with a 3-2 record, outside the eight by points difference whilst the Devils were languishing in 13th position two games outside the eight. In time-on of the last quarter the Devils were trailing by less than a kick when, Tom Lynch marked the ball 25 metres out form the Devils goal on a sight angle, Gariwerd defender Zach Tuohy made contact with him late - giving away a 50 metre penalty, Lynch kicked the goal to put CMD in front and they held on for a much needed 10 point win, 1,244 to 1,234.

The Devils gained a great deal of confidence from their narrow escape against the Cockatoos and turned their form around in dramatic fashion to have nine wins and three losses from Round 6 to Round 17. Two of the three losses were to ORFFA heavyweights, a 56 point loss to the Venus Bay Vultures by 56 points in Round 6 and by 53 points to the Cows in Round 15. The other defeat was a wipe-out 206 point loss to the Wagga Wagga Wombats in round 11 on the eve of the mid-season break when the Devils suffered injuries to three players, including defender Jake Lever and midfielder David Zaharakis in the first quarter, Lever required a knee reconstruction, ending his season whilst Zaka missed another couple of games once play resumed after the mid-season break.

At the mid-season break the Devils had a record of five wins and six losses to be 12th on the ladder two games outside the eight, their eventual Grand Final opponent the Marble Bar Misfits fared only slightly better being in 11th position, one win ahead of CMD. The Misfits were defeated by Darraweit by 97 points in Round 11, 1,314 to 1,217 with the Misfits being able to field a full 15 player team but named only one emergency, given their extensive injury list up until the mid-season break the Misfits did well to have a positive win-loss record after Round 11. In a blockbuster mid-season trade with the Cockatoos the Misfits traded out defender Rory Laird who was leading their best and fairest but were able to better balance their team and strengthen their 2018 PSD position.

In Round 12 the Misfits had a full team and three emergencies, played very well to score 1,363 but fell 33 points against the Grasshoppers and faced another difficult game against the Gariwerd Cockatoos, a loss would have resulted in the Misfits winning percentage dropping below 50% which would have left very little room for error to still make the finals. With their season potentially on the line seven Misfits scored seven tons and they won a high scoring contest against The Cockatoos by 90 points, 1,423 to 1,323. The Misfits were unable to replicate that performance the following week against the Venus Bay Vultures and were defeated 1,523 to 1,200, leaving them in 10th place after 14 rounds with a record of seven wins and seven losses, one game and points difference behind the eighth placed Foul Bay Chickens. The Misfits recorded two big wins in Round 15 and Round 16 to improve to a record of nine wins and seven losses.

From Round 12 to Round 16 the Devils scored 1,300 plus points in every game and had four wins and a respectable loss to the Cows. In all four rounds from Round 13 to Round 16 the Devils and Misfits were ninth and 10th on the ladder respectively meaning that with only one round remaining they didn’t have their destiny in their own hands. Both the Devils and Misfits had nine wins and seven losses after Round 16 to be one win behind the three teams that filled the positions from sixth to eighth being in order the Foul Bay Chickens, Darraweit Guim and Birdsville Battlers. To make the finals CMD and MBM had to win and have other results go their way. Marble Bar Misfits thrashed fourth placed Iron Knob 1,471 to 1,133 in Round 17 to follow up having scored 1,399 the previous week. It was tight between Cradle Mountain and the Whitsunday Warriors for most of the game, with the Devils gaining the ascendancy in the last quarter to win 1,307 to 1,216. The Venus Bay Vultures completed a perfect home and away season with 17 wins by defeating Darraweit 1,397 to 1,310 which elevated the Devils into the top eight. For Marble Bar to make the eight they needed the 14th placed Charlies Opening to defeat the eighth placed Birdsville Battlers in the final round. Injuries had hit Birdsville late in the season and had an impact in this game as well with forward Josh Battle getting concussed early in the game and taking no further part. Birdsville were defeated by Charlies Opening 1,154 to 999 which resulted in Marble Bar rising to eighth on the ladder.

The Devils and Misfits both pushed the envelope as far as you can in terms of positions they recovered from to make the eight. Several times in 2018 Cradle Mountain were two wins behind the eighth placed side whilst to make the eight Marble Bar had to not only win but have two other results go their way in the final round. Cradle Mountain’s luckiest moment of the season was the 50 metre penalty being paid against Cockatoos defender Tuohy in the Devils 10 point Round 6 win which changed the trajectory of CMD’s season. Whilst late-season injuries at Birdsville played a role in the Misfits getting the second other result they needed in Round 17 in order to make the finals. So you could say there were similarities with Steve Bradbury in the way the Devils and Misfits snuck into the finals.

Minor premiers the Venus Bay Vultures were undefeated in the home and away season to finish two wins ahead of 2017 premiers Waikikamoocow Incorrigibles who had 15 wins and two losses. During the 2017 and 2018 home and away seasons the Vultures and the Cows were two dominant sides with both sides recording at least 15 wins in both seasons. During 2018 the Vultures averaged a league leading 1,358 points ahead of the Cows who were ranked second in this category with 1,309 poins per game. Only two games and points for difference separated third and 10th on the ORFFA ladder. With the Gundagai Grasshoppers and Gariwerd Cockatoos both having records of 12 wins and six losses to complete the top four ahead of the Iron Knob Codpieces in fifth place with 11 wins and six losses. Five teams had 10 wins and seven losses for the season so points for determined which of these three teams made the finals and which two missed out. The order was Foul Bay (1,285 points per game), Cradle Mountain (1,274) and the Marble Bar Misfits (1,235) in the eight with Darraweit Guim (1,225) and the Birdsville Battlers (1,172) missing out.

 

The Devils and Misfits catapult from 11th and 12th respectively at the mid-season break to ORFFA grand final berths (part 4)

Misfits and Devils 2018 finals

Minor premiers the Venus Bay Vultures who were undefeated in the home and away season faced the difficult choice of deciding their week 1 opponent and opted to play Cradle Mountain. On the eve of the finals Vultures star midfielder Andrew Gaff was given a lengthy suspension which ruled him out for the season, increasing the Devils chances of an upset victory. Cradle Mountain played their best game of the season and given the stakes, the greatest game in the club’s history to defeat Venus Bay 1,434 to 1,219 with Vultures defender Dan Houston getting injured in the third quarter and bench player Matthew Kruezer being a late withdrawal, albeit he was covered by an emergency. None of the Devils four multi-player line averaged 100 points per player, however all four of these lines averaged at least 90 points per game in an incredibly even performance. The seven Devils to register tons were D Heppell (137), H Himmelberg (135), J Steele (128), A McDonald-Tipungwuti (127), N Vlastuin (112), T Lynch (106), and J Redden (102).

The Misfits had finished the home and away season strongly to register more than 1,300 points in five of their last six games, given that they were proven big-game performers having made the 2017 GF the top four sides wanted to avoid playing them. After the Cockatoos Round 16 win their head coach commented @anthak commented that “That 4th position is a death trap” for this very reason and was concerned that his team might finish fourth which was what eventuated and the Cockatoos were forced to play the Misfits in Week 1 of the finals. The Misfits midfield overpowered their Gariwerd counterparts 408 to 300 to set up a 1,240 to 1,180 win. Only one Cockatoos played scored a ton – midfielder Matt Crouch (107), compared to five Marble Bar players - Lachie Whitfield (130), Caleb Daniel (120), Callan Ward (110), Jake Lloyd (117) and Devon Smith (104).

In the other games in the first week of the finals the Cows defeated the Chickens 1,321 to 1,199 to gain the position as top seed for week 2 and the Iron Knob Codpieces were exceptional, scoring 1,454 to 1,281 to defeat the Gundagai Grasshoppers.

As the top seed Waikikamoocow were able to choose their semifinal play and with Misfits midfielder Josh Kelly ruled out due to concussion and MBM ruck Paddy Ryder under an injury cloud Cows head coach @graeme opted to play the Misfits, ensuring that one of the two sides from the classic 2017 Grand Final would progress to the 2018 GF. This meant that in the second semi final Iron Knob hosted Cradle Mountain.

The Misfits only had 16 players from their 28 player squad available making team selection an easy task, the Cows on the other hand had some difficult choices to make and two selected Cows having sub-50 scores whilst emergency Brandon Parfitt scored 117 in the curtain-raiser proved costly. A more even contribution from MBM who had 12 players score at least 75 saw them prevail in another thrilling encounter to defeat the Cows 1,356 to 1,326. The Cows and Misfits have quickly developed one of the best rivalries in the ORFFA and in 2017 and 2018 the team that lost their home and away encounter had turned the tables to win their far more important finals clash. Five Misfits reached triple figures – Devon Smith (125), Jake Lloyd (124), Callan Ward (116), Tim Taranto (107) and Patrick Ryder (106). Cows forward Josh Dunkley was best afield with 157 to be one of five ton scorers along with Nat Fyfe (114), Sam Menegola (112), 2018 Les W medalist Tom Mitchell (108) and Dale Thomas (100).

Iron Knob took the field in their semi final against the Devils with an OOP ruck in Jarrad Waite and had a disastrous start with forward Jack Darling being concussed early in the first quarter and ruled out for the rest of the game despite getting beaten in the ruck three IKC midfielders scored tons – veteran Shaun Burgoyne (124), Gary Ablett (114) and Jackson Macrae (110) however no other Iron Knob player reached triple figures. Cradle Mountain had five tons with their two highest scoring players in Jack Steele (121) and David Zaharakis (109) starting on the bench and being joined in triple figures by Dyson Heppell (105), Scott Pendlebury (100) and Paul Seedsman (100).

Amazingly after being 11th and 12th at the mid-season break the Cradle Mountain Devils and Marble Bar Misfits progressed to the biggest stage of all – the ORFFA Grand Final. The roles are reversed from 54 weeks ago when one of the two clubs was guaranteed to win their first final when the two teams met in the 2017 quarter final, the Misfits had never played in a final whilst the Devils were playing their second, having lost their only previous final. In their encounter this weekend either the Misfits or Devils will win their first premiership, this time it is the Misfits playing their second Grand Final whilst the Devils are in their first GF.

The season averages of the 15 man teams named for the Grand Final are reflective of the teams scoring output during 2018 with the Misfits having more peaks and troughs and the Devils being more consistent. 10 Devils from their Grand Final side have averaged between 81 and 99 during 2018 compared to six Misfits in this range. Marble Bar have four players that average triple figures -Josh Kelly (116), Jake Lloyd (110), Callan Ward (104) and Lachie Whitfield (102) but also have five players averaging less than 80. In previous seasons the Devils have relied heavily on their best handful of players however they have developed into a far more rounded side in 2018 and only their captain Scott Pendlebury (104) and co vice-captain Dyson Heppell (102) have averaged triple figures. The other CMD co vice-captain Dayne Zorko started the season slowly and has averaged 97, just how much of his trick bag the Amazing Zorko can unleash in the GF could be critical to the outcome. Three Devils average less than 80 including two forwards. Based on the 2018 averages of the 15 man GF teams the Misfits would win a thriller by 11 points.

Luck has definitely played a part in the fortunes of ORFFA teams throughout 2018 and the roller-coaster ride that the Misfits and the Devils have been on this season shows that in some instances there is a very fine line between finishing narrowly missing the finals and finishing ninth or 10th or playing in a Grand Final. The Devils have had a far better run with injuries than most of their rivals throughout 2018 and their early season woes were largely self-inflicted. Fearing that that they couldn’t match the standard and intensity of the best three teams from 2017 in the Cows, Vultures and Misfits for an entire season the Devils opted to slowly build into their season which resulted in a Chautauqua-esque start with only two wins from their first seven games. From Round 8 onwards the Devils have been extremely consistent to have only one sub 1,295 score. The Misfits have had to overcome more adversity to make this year’s Grand Final and unfortunately for them the club and captain’s name of Misfits and Ward respectively has been all to accurate for their head coach @Len’s liking as their rooms have seemed like a hospital Ward at times due to their extensive injury list.

Looking back at the history of the Misfits and Devils as well as how many teams finishing seventh and eighth have made Grand Finals highlights that there are two distinct seasons the home and away season and the finals season. ORFFA front-runners after dominating the home and away season frequently haven’t performed to expectations in the finals whilst the teams that have finished seventh and eighth having no expectations on them have played with reckless abandon to punch well above their weight. A total of six teams that have finished seventh or eighth making ORFFA Grand Finals actually matches the output of teams finishing first to sixth combined making Grand Finals. Obviously these teams that have finished seventh or eighth that have made the Grand Final have required some luck a la Steven Bradbury to make it to the Grand Final and this has definitely been the case for the Devils and Misfits in 2018. The Devils playing consistent football for 11 weeks and having never won more than 11 games in a season suggests that if they do win the premiership it is probably premature. Given the Misfits lost the 2017 Grand Final by just 20 points and have had a 14 win season previously you could argue that the Misfits are more deserving of winning the 2018 ORFFA Premiership. Regardless of who wins the 2018 ORFFA premiership the path of the Misfits and the Devils to the Grand Final has highlighted the benefits of remaining in the contest as long as possible and peaking at the right time. In the ORFFA as in life there will be times when luck doesn’t go your way, however it is also possible that like Steven Bradbury you find yourself in the right place at the right time and can guide your team from seventh or eighth after the home and away season to an unexpected grand final berth giving you a chance of winning the ORFFA premiership.

 

Congratulations @Len on the Marble Bar Misfits winning the 2018 ORFFA Premiership. My calculation of an approximate final score is Misfits 1,370 vs Devils 1,260.
Devils coaching staff knew they were in trouble when walking back to the coaches Box at 3 quarter time they heard a man from the other side of the ground with a Misfits scarf on deleriously yelling 'I love the Misfits chances from here.' The Devils coaching staff found out after the game that the Misfits fan in question was none other than Lloyd Christmas.

 

Congratulations @Len - followed the old "have to lose a grand final to win one." If that is correct then @dmandrews is well placed for 2019.

 

Commiserations @dmandrews . The Devils had a great year after a rocky start, though, and I imagine we'll see you near the pointy end again next year.

And congrats @Len !! The Misfits have been a patient project but you got there, mate. And nice to see, given how much you've done to keep this ship running smoothly.

 

"Is this the real life?
Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landslide
No escape from reality"

@Bandit lifting a cup - surely not; get stuffed mate. Commiserations @Lenny120, those cave dwellers somehow pulled you down to their level (and below).

 

Congrats @Len, great to see a team that was down the bottom for a while rise to this. Huge effort.

Commiserations as well to @dmandrews, also a great year and a very strong team, too strong for my teams good unfortunately! Haha.