OK, at the finish line, finally We are having a two round dispersal draft, now we just need to decide the draft style. Things to note: The dispersal draft will ONLY feature players from the Warriors and the Chooks Each team will have two picks allocated to them (one per round), and any of these can be passed in preference of an extra PSD pick(s) For any other details, please read the other threads: The last decision is the type of draft. We have the following options: Normal reverse ladder order draft where the last placed team would get Picks 1 and 17, and first would get 16 and 32 A 'snake' style draft where the last placed team would get picks 1 and 32, and the top placed team get picks 16 & 17 We can run a lottery for the first round, and a reverse order for the second. The lottery works in such a way that everyone has a chance to get one of the first 4 picks, but the lower teams have a much greater chance of winning them. Might be easier to explain it using this graphic. The precentages have been pre-selected by the tool I found, and I'm not keen to tamper with them! Given there are three voting options here I will review the vote in two ways if there is a majority for one option (ie 9 or more), that will be chosen : simples if there is no majority, then the least favoured preference out of the three will be removed from the vote, and those coaches that voted for that option will be asked to re-cast their vote for one of the other two options Important: if it still remains a tie at 8 all with two choices, then the draft will be conducted in standard reverse order format as per our normal draft rules Have at it: please try and vote quickly, thanks Please let me know with a thumbs up when you have voted, saves me having to chase people Birdsville Battlers @JC - Voted Charlie's Opening Spelunkers @Bandit - Voted Cradle Mountain Devils @dmandrews - Voted Dunsborough Dung Beetles @CursingFijian - Voted Gariwerd Cockatoos @anthak - Voted Gundagai Grasshoppers @snoz - Voted Iron Knob Codpieces @churchboy - Voted Larrikin Lagoon Lefties @That KI Guy - Voted Lovely Banks Lilacs @Jen - Voted Marble Bar Misfits @Len - Voted Mt Beauty Uglies @bama - Voted Nareewillock Nuffers @chris88 - Voted Venus Bay Vultures @Fitzy Wagga Wagga Wombats @Lenny120 Waikikamoocow Incorrigibles @graeme - Voted Wineglass Bay Packers @Tracey - Voted
Thanks mate, love your work. Will the reverse order and lottery options be based off the ladder or by total points scored? I had previously suggested the latter would be fairest.
Btw, I love the look of that lottery tool you found! If the lottery option gets up, we should consider ways to live stream it! I’m part of a fantasy NBA comp, where they run a lottery to decide draft order each year, and they live stream it for all participants. They actually organise a weekend getaway each year somewhere in Australia with all participants invited where they do the draft order lottery in person, and live stream for those at home! I’m going to be attending in person this year later this month which should be interesting haha
If it goes that way I'll record the draw and put it in here... just to show full disclosure It will be over in literally 3 seconds though... it's just an algorithm
Any chance of sharing the website you used for the lottery draw? Not contesting the methodology but fascinated by how they built it.
@Bandit thanks for all the work you are doing in co-ordinating the discussion and voting in relation to the ORFFA dispersal draft, it is much appreciated by your fellow ORFFA coaches. For a draft like the dispersal draft I like the idea of having a lottery component, however I think the number of teams should be restricted. When contracting the ORFFA from 18 teams to 16 teams was first raised as an option in May an ORFFA coach suggested a mini-draft of 2 rounds for the bottom 4 to 6 teams drawing from the Chickens and Warriors only. At the end of the season when Bandit made his post ‘ORFFA 2024 : a new era' he wrote “I considered priority picks for a couple of the bottom teams but it was impossible to find an equitable way to do it.” Now all 16 ORFFA teams will participate in a two round dispersal draft involving players from the Chickens and Warriors only. One option that could have been used to asses which teams should participate in a mini-draft is total points scored in the 2022 and 2023 ORFFA seasons. Of the 16 teams competing in the ORFFA in 2024 five teams scored less than 19,500 points in 2022 and five teams scored less than 19,500 points in 2023. Four teams were in this category in both 2022 and 2023 – Lefties, Codpieces, Dung Beetles and Packers. The only other two teams that scored less than 19,500 points in 2022 or 2023 are 2022 Premiers Cockatoos with 18,253 points in 2023 and the Nuffers with 18,160 points in 2022. If a min-draft had of been held it is likely that it would have been restricted to four teams – Lefties, Codpieces, Dung Beetles and Packers. Below is the total points scored by each of these teams in the past two years, ranked from least points to most points. Among these four teams the rankings were the same in 2022 and 2023 with the Lefties scoring the least points, Iron Knob scoring the second least points, Dung Beetles scoring the second most points and Packers scoring the most points. Given that we aren’t going to have a mini-draft for the bottom 4-6 teams can we have a compromise which ensures that teams that would have been considered candidates to participate in the mini-draft have the early Round 1 picks of the dispersal draft? I had a tinker with the draft lottery simulator that Bandit provided a link for to see what it would like if the first four picks were allocated to the four teams with the least total points scored over the 2022 and 2023 ORFFA seasons. The chances for each team can be modified. Below are the results:
Great work. Pretty keen to see how a lottery style draft pans out, even though it probably doesn't make the most sense for the Dungbeetles, in terms of self interest.
Thanks @dmandrews This only becomes an issue depending on how the vote falls. Let's get through this first... it would be great if people could vote For what it is worth, if a lottery was voted in, I would NOT be a fan of restricting the first round to the four franchises you mentioned, as there have been many many teams who went through very lean periods without any compensatory picks. As an example (and one of a few I can mention), let's not forget the Codpieces were at the top end of town for a long time (playing finals for 8 of our seasons). We then look at the Nuffers who have played finals once (this season). So in this example we have one franchise that has struggled their way through a long period of list development and are now a finals playing team (the Nuffers), that doesn't get a 'priority' pick, but the Codpieces (twice premiers) who are having a couple of lean years get a boost up. It is this inconsistency that I keep coming back to in terms of equity It is for this reason that I would not be willing to tweak the weightings. With the weighting model I posted above, the bottom 4 teams each have a ~50% chance of getting a top 4 pick, and can not get a lower pick than 8th. The top 8 players from both disbanding franchises average 89 or higher, so this is a pretty good leg up, with a potential of it being amazing. By the time that gets to the 18th player (there are at least two retirees in the top 16) it drops to low 80's and then it falls of a cliff after that, with the 32nd player averaging 67 So given the worst a bottom four team can do is get a player averaging almost 90, I think the current weighting is more than fair, but I am just one voice in 16. Let's decide what type of draft we are having, and then if we decide lottery, we might need to discuss.
Thanks for the prompt response @Bandit. It seems as though support for the lottery draft will alter depending on how the lottery system is implemented and which teams are included it. Usually lottery drafts are limited to teams that miss out on making the playoffs/finals. There is some grey area you have raised in relation to the ORFFA such as the Nuffers being placed near the bottom of the ladder throughout their existence and then rising up to make their first finals appearance in 2023. If you are saying that only having the four teams I mentioned in the lottery is too restrictive then surely having all 16 teams is too open. Four teams have finished in the ORFFA top eight in each of the past four years from 2020 to 2023 – Grasshoppers, Vultures, Devils and Uglies. Each of these clubs have won an ORFFA premiership in the past five seasons. No matter how small the chances are I don’t think this quartet of clubs should be in the mix for a top 4 pick in the first round of the dispersal draft. I have now submitted a vote working on the basis that the lottery method is as per the model you included and haven’t voted for it.
Just to clarify, I wasn't proposing to limit the first round of the dispersal draft to four picks, every team would still have one pick in the first round which would have a total of 16 picks. I was proposing that the four teams - Lefties, Codpieces, Dung Beetles and Packers that clear-cut rank in the bottom four in relation to total points scored in 2022-2023 should have the first four picks. Picks 5 to 16 could then be determined by reverse order. I agree with Anthony, for this draft total points for is a fairer method than ladder order.
For reference, this was the post where I first suggested it. I listed the draft order comparison between reverse ladder and reverse 'points for'. I do think its fairer. We could possibly still discuss this option after the current vote. http://tooserious.net/forum/threads...d-whitsunday-players.91460/page-2#post-245736
So that people are clear, we will not be going with Points For... this is not how draft orders have been done in the past, this is why I said 'normal' in my description..... and given we have more than 50% of the vote submitted I don't think we should muddy the waters any further. The reverse order will be based on ladder position, just like all of our previous drafts If people have a fundamental disagreement with that, we have Comissioner nominations in a couple of weeks, and I look forward to you throwing your hat into the ring... is that passive aggressive... yes it is
No need to be “passive aggressive”, but thanks for clarifying the order (again). It’s just a friendly discussion. I expanded on Dean’s comment on the basis of your last message where you said that we will first decide what type of draft we are having, and then if we decide lottery, we might need to discuss further. I thought because Dean was suggesting changing the order for the top picks that you meant the order as well as the pick probabilities for each spot, but you must’ve just meant the latter. My mistake ✌
OK, we have an outcome. As I mentioned if it was not clear with one option past the post we would ask the coaches that selected the lowest voted option to re-cast their votes With the Snake draft, being the least preferred choice, I reached out to @snoz and @chris88 to ask if they would be happy to re-cast their vote, and whilst Snoz hasn't responded, Chris has, and has said he would choose reverse order as his second preference That gets us to the 9 votes required to finalise reverse order as the sequence for the dispersal draft. I will ask Chris to confirm that in the comments below, but we have a way forward.