Best Buys: Carnage Comes Early

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Iain, Apr 22, 2015.

By Iain on Apr 22, 2015 at 10:00 AM
  1. Iain

    Iain Moderator Staff Member

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    Welcome to another edition of the Best Buys, a somewhat delayed edition, after a weekend of carnage for most SC coaches. With injuries already to the likes of Ablett, Deledio and Rockliff the season has started out roughly, only to be made worse by players like Bartel getting injured and new favourite The Bont not lining up along with a whole host of rookies being struck down to test our teams' depth. Hopefully this week will see some relief for many of us, but realistically I wouldn't count on it. Unfortunately there really aren't many good rookie options around that aren't injured, so the majority of rookies here are the same as those listed for last few weeks.

    Enough of the gloom and doom though, on to the first Best Buy of the season, Rory Sloane.
    A dominant player in a dominant team Sloane, and the Crows, have stepped up their game so far this year and are both sitting atop their respective leaderboards. While Rory comes with a hefty price-tag if he can keep things going the way they have been then he'll be more than worth it on the SC front. After a break-out season last year, many are now wondering,is it possible to break-out twice? Only time will tell, but so far it's a big yes.

    DEFENSE
    ROOKIES



    Adam Saad (GCS) D/M 188.1k 85 68.3%

    Saad has been a great cash-cow so far, and looks likely to continue on with his current form. A consistent scorer and set to increase in price by around 140 grand in the next 3 weeks if he hits his average, there's still money to be made for those late to the table.



    Kamdyn McIntosh (RIC) DEF 202.7k 84 59.4%

    McIntosh has slowed slightly after his game one heroics, but still looks to be a great option down back. Now over 200 grand in price he will likely not get too many more selections, but with another 116 grand to be made over the coming 3 weeks he certainly isn't the worst rookie option.



    Adam Oxley (COL) DEF 199.1k 81 32.1%
    Oxley is in a surprisingly low number of teams, compared to the other two rookies here, sitting in just over 30% of sides. This probably won't change drastically, but you could certainly be excused for picking him up now as if he maintains his current average his value will rise by over 140 grand in the next 3 games.

    MID-PRICERS



    Cale Hooker (ESS) DEF 469.1k 117 1.9%

    Hooker is still a massive POD, sitting in just under 2% of SC teams. With an average of 117 over the start of the season and a price of 470 grand he looks great value for those who think he can keep his average up. Facing a likely price rise of around 37 grand this week, Hooker looks set for a big season but will most likely remain a fairly obscure pick.



    Tom McDonald (MEL) DEF 432.3k 114 5.7%

    McDonald's selection numbers are on the rise, and when you see he's averaging 114 for a price of around 430 grand it's easy to see why. Now sitting in around 6% of teams he still has huge POD value, and with Melbourne likely to have the ball down back a fair bit he looks an astute pick so far.



    Bachar Houli (RIC) DEF 480.8k 113 1.7%

    Houli pumped out a 150 in his last game to bring his average up to 113 for the year so far. He was averaging 95.5 up until that 150, so even then he's in decent form, but looking at the Tigers' draw so far in Carlton, Bulldogs and Brisbane he may struggle to keep those numbers going against better opposition. Worth considering, but unlikely to end up a top defender by season's end.



    Grant Birchall (HAW) DEF 477.9k 105 2.6%

    Birch missed the first game through injury, and as such is now on the bubble. A reasonably risky pick given his history, he is averaging 105 from his first 2 games this year including a 128 last outing. This could simply be a once-off effort, or could be a sign that he was still recovering somewhat in his first match of the year, so opinion will likely be divided as to whether or not he's worth the 478k price tag at this stage.



    Taylor Hunt (RIC) DEF 341.9k 96 11%
    Hunt is an interesting prospect, averaging 96 so far and priced at a nice 340 grand. With previous run-with roles keeping his scoring down he seems to have been given much more freedom this season and has seen a big boost in his scoring to date, but with such a small sample size it's always hard to predict future potential. Looking at his scores he has twice topped 100, but interestingly scored just 68 in the Tigers only loss. If this trend continues, a lot of his perceived value may come down to how many games players can see the Tigers winning this season.

    PREMIUMS



    Luke Hodge (HAW) D/M 520.4k 118 20.3%

    Hodge turned back the clock in his last game, racking up 44 touches and 2 goals on his way to a massive 177 in the belting of the Bulldogs in Tassie. Priced at 520 grand he is one of the more expensive defenders going around, and with his 177 in the system his average sits at a healthy 118. Obviously we can't expect this kind of performance every game, but even if he does it a couple more times it will be money well spent for the 20% of sides that currently have him. Hodge is looking like a good pick this season, but keep in mind he's always a risk of being rested for a game here or there.



    Alex Rance (RIC) DEF 508.3k 118 8.1%

    Rance has been the source of constant discussion in previous week, due to both his form and apparent uncertainty over his playing career post 2015. With an average of 118 it's easy to see why his form has people talking, and he could well be on his way to a break-out season in SC. With a price over 500 grand he is a relatively pricey pick, and some may be wary after his 87 last game, but so far he has shown why many rate him as one of the best defenders in the league.



    Brodie Smith (ADE) DEF 524.9k 116 12.4%
    Smith started the season on fire in SC, before a concussion and score of 87 the following game put the brakes on somewhat. He still sports an average of 116 however, a reflection of how good he was in the opening two matches, and at a price of 525 grand he will be a popular upgrade target for many. If the Crows can maintain their early season form this year, along with Smith, he should easily be one of the best defender in the game.

    MIDFIELD
    ROOKIES



    Cam Ellis-Yolmen (ADE) MID 215k 93 51.7%

    CEY is another of the rookies to have played every game so far, and with an average of 93 it's easy to see why. He's already had a big price rise this season, taking his price to 215 grand, but if he can keep up with his current output he will still make his coaches another 150 grand in the next 3 games alone. If you are one of the 48.3% of coaches who let him slip, there's still time to jump on.



    Isaac Heeney (SYD) MID 214.8k 85 55%

    Heeney is very similar to CEY so far, albeit averaging 8 points less over the early part of the SC year. Also priced at around 215 grand he has risen in value dramatically, but will increase by another 130 grand over the next 3 weeks if he can keep performing to this level.



    Aaron Vandenberg (MEL) MID 199.9k 79 40.8%

    Vandenberg is a bit cheaper than the previous two, clocking in at just under 200 grand. An average of 79 will see him scoring another 110k in price rises over the coming 3 weeks, and with around 60% of teams not having him he will probably be traded in by a few coaches yet.



    Patrick Cripps (CAR) MID 211.4k 71 35.2%
    Cripps was a popular trade-out last week, but seemingly not the best choice in retrospect. He's on the bubble now and with an average of 71 he will likely increase in value by nearly 40 grand after his next game. With Carlton supposedly now in full rebuild” mode, although I have no idea what mode they were in previously, he should get plenty more game-time and can hopefully rack up some big scores for the 35% of teams that still have him in their side.

    MID-PRICERS



    Lachie Neale (FRE) MID 511.3k 124 7.2%

    Neale was one of the pre-season hype picks this year, and with opening scores of 96, 108 and 170 it seems rightly so. The monster 170 in a belting that could have been much worse had the Dockers kept their foot down has bumped his average to 124 for the season, and at a price of 510 grand for those that think he can maintain it he offers great value. However many will have their doubts about this, and while he looks excellent value personally I can't see him keeping these kind of numbers going for too much longer. With the 170 set to remain in the system for another couple of weeks however, those using a high-risk strategy this year could well make some good coin on him before upgrading to a more reliable premium.



    Daniel Rich (BRI) MID 397.9k 106 38.2%
    Rich has surprised a few SC pundits with his form so far this season, averaging 106 and looking set to spend the majority of games in the midfield. Costing just under 400 grand he still offers solid value, but probably won't have the kind of price increases required to trade him in at this stage. For those looking to replace an injured player for the short-medium term Rich could well provide decent value, but the return of Rockliff will likely scare most prospective coaches away.

    PREMIUMS



    Rory Sloane (ADE) MID 640.5k 139 13.5%

    So far this season we have a surprise leader in SC, with Sloane backing up from last season with a massive average of 139. It will be interesting to see how opposition teams react to his newfound dominance, and whether he will start copping the tags previously reserved for Dangerfield, but so far he has certainly delivered the goods for his 13.5% of coaches. Priced at 640 grand he is an expensive pick, but to date is averaging 11ppg more than his closest rival to play all games this year.



    Nathan Fyfe (FRE) MID 655.1k 128 55.1%

    Fyfe is showing all the signs that have had him installed as Brownlow favourite this season, averaging 128 so far and sitting in 55% of teams. A popular captain pick most weeks he always has the potential to go large, and getting him in will be a priority for the teams who didn't start the season with him.



    Jordan Lewis (HAW) MID 598.5k 124 14.8%

    Lewis is another somewhat surprising leader in SC, averaging 124 to date and sitting in just under 15% of sides. Priced at under 600 grand he offers good value for potential coaches, and the Hawks seem certain to win the vast majority of matches this season. With a BE of 137 this week he will probably drop in price slightly, but nowhere near enough to make it worth waiting another week on him if you're set on trading in a midfielder this round or next.



    David Mundy (FRE) MID 569.3k 123 2.6%

    Mundy has been in great form this year, averaging 123 from the opening three games and is currently priced at around 570 grand. With only 2.6% of coaches giving him a crack so far he has great POD potential, and with some luck and a good season from Freo he could well end the year in the leading group of midfielders.



    Daniel Hannebery (SYD) MID 559.7k 120 2.3%
    Hannebery has picked up his game again this year, averaging 120 after a somewhat disappointing 2014. Costing 560 grand he is value for money at this stage, and in just 2.3% of teams to boot. The SC point allocation is always hard to pick in Sydney's star-studded midfield, but Hanners is as likely as any to maintain a big average.

    RUCK
    MID-PRICERS



    Mark Blicavs (GEE) M/R 405.2k 98 7.2%

    Due to the general under-performing of the vast majority of rucks this season, the Best Buys has a few surprise inclusions this round starting with Blicavs. While he has always had the engine for AFL footy his skills have been a weak-point in previous seasons. Now averaging 98 and costing just over 400 grand he looks decent value, and one of few rucks to not be losing money, but there has to be big questions surrounding his ability to maintain this scoring output. Definitely a risky pick, but has been an astute one so far for the 7.2% of teams that grabbed him.



    Zach Smith (GCS) RUC 430.4k 96 6.2%

    Smith set the SC world alight in his debut season with an excellent average (for a ruckman in their first year) of 78. Unfortunately he has continued to average in the 70's since then, and hasn't shown any real inclination to improve that until now. Currently averaging 96 for a price of 430 grand he looks a good value, if risky, ruck choice and will have a few coaches eying him off as a POD. With Ablett out indefinitely Smith's value is fairly hard to ascertain at this stage, but if the little master can return sooner rather than later and get on the end of some hit-outs Smith will likely be a great pick-up.



    Brodie Grundy (COL) RUC 375.3k 95 10.3%
    Grundy has been solid since debut, for a ruckman anyway, and so far this season looks to be turning into the player that many predicted he would. Averaging 95 with not that much time on ground to date he has the potential to be a 100+ average player, but only time will tell if he can do it this season. Still learning the ropes and in a team in the midst of rebuilding he should get significant game-time if his fitness allows, and priced at 375 grand he offers decent value. If he can work on giving away less free kicks and spending more time on the field he could be a good pick for the 10% of sides that backed him in.

    PREMIUMS



    Todd Goldstein (NM) RUC 584.7k 121 26.6%
    Goldy is clearly and without a doubt the number one ruckman in SC at the moment. Averaging 121 and costing around 585 grand he offers good value and is in a surprisingly small amount of teams sitting at just over 26% selection. If you don't have him yet, look for ways to get him in without destroying your strategy moving forward.

    FORWARD
    ROOKIES



    Jesse Hogan (MEL) FWD 196.5k 75 56.7%
    Hogan is another pre-season favourite that could still be worth grabbing, but sitting in over half the teams in the comp he won't provide an answer for the majority of sides looking to fill the forward rookie void. Costing a bit under 200 grand and facing increases of around 104k over the next three weeks he is still the best forward rookie prospect, but with an average of 75 he might not bring in the required 200 grand for those coaches late to the party.

    MID-PRICERS



    Marcus Bontempelli (WBD) M/F 422.3k 134 45.7%

    After missing training repeatedly last week we shouldn't have been too surprised when The Bont didn't line up on Sunday, but after hearing Bevo say he would still play the day before it definitely hurt the 45% of teams that had him. This did bring one positive though, in that those who missed the train now have another chance at bringing him in at his original price. Assuming he plays this week of course. Averaging a massive 134 from his first two matches and costing 420 grand he is excellent value, but some questions will remain about just how well he has recovered.



    Matthew Pavlich (FRE) FWD 493.4k 116 2.6%

    The next couple of picks are veterans who have seemingly turned back the clock this season, but realistically have some pretty big doubts around them continuing to perform. Pavlich had an inspired opening two games and even after a subdued 83 in the Dockers big win is sitting on an average of 116. Currently in 2.6% of teams he seems decent value for under 500 grand, but after getting burned by him last season I personally won't be backing him in to average 100+ over the full season.



    Eddie Betts (ADE) FWD 462.4k 111 3.1%

    Betts is a difficult one, averaging 111 and costing 460 grand he looks good value, but at 29 years of age and playing as a small forward his doubts outweigh his potential for the majority of SCers. With scores of 154, 92 and 88 so far, and having never averaged more than 85 in a season, he will likely struggle to average the 100+ required to make him a good selection this year.



    Luke Dahlhaus (WBD) FWD 499.3k 102 2.5%

    Dahlhaus has been in good form to date, averaging 102 for the 2.5% of coaches to give him a run. In an improving team and as an aggressive forward who spends decent time in the midfield he has the scope to improve significantly and could well be on his way to premium status. The dogs are likely to lose a fair few games this season, but based on the start they've had they may still surprise some teams yet. A solid pick, and probably less risky than the majority of his similarly priced contemporaries.



    Adam Schneider (StK) FWD 369.6k 100
    Schneiderman is now on the bubble after missing the opening game, and with an average of 100 for a price of 370 grand he may well entice a few coaches. Another player getting on in years and has never averaged over 90 Schneider could be benefitting from Riewoldt's absence, but whatever the cause it appears unlikely he'll be able to keep it going for an extended duration.

    PREMIUMS



    Jarryd Roughead (HAW) FWD 545.5k 125 13%

    Roughy turned it on against the Doggies on the weekend, belting out 173 to bring his average up to 125 for the season's first 3 games. Priced fairly high at 545 grand if he can keep his average up over 110 he offers decent value, but there are always questions around KPP's in SC. While he may not average 110+ like some of the M/F selections, he hasn't dropped under 95 in the last 4 seasons. Capable of huge scores, as proven, but likely to remain a consistent 95-100 scorer this year.



    Dane Swan (COL) M/F 501.8k 120 50.4%
    Swanny bounced back to the form that had him a top midfield pick in seasons past, scoring 150 on the weekend to prove that he's still got it. Now costing just over 500 grand and averaging 120 for the year he looks excellent value as a forward but is already sitting in just over 50% of sides. Barring injury, Swan looks certain to be a leading forward in SC this season.

    WAITING LIST



    Jimmy Bartel (GEE) FWD 549k 47 -80k

    Gary Ablett (GCS) MID 734.6k 103 -56k

    Steve Johnson (GEE) MID 536.7k 85 -47k

    Luke Parker (SYD) MID 542.2k 84 -36k

    Brent Harvey (NM) M/F 531.2k 78 -25k

    Sam Jacobs (ADE) RUC 581.9k 93 -20k

    Shane Mumford (GWS) RUC 571.1k 89 -36k

    Patrick Ryder (PTA) R/F 512.5k 84 -20k

    Robbie Gray (PTA) M/F 577.2k 103 -23k

    Patrick Dangerfield (ADE) MID 554.2k 102 -19k

    That's it for another week of Best Buys, but as always join in on the comments below for player discussion and all the usual thumb polls.
    Edit:

    Due to all the rookie injuries taking place, here is a list of all the players currently playing that are under 200k, the number at the end is what their price will do if they hit their average this round.
    Darcy Lang (GEE) MID 200k 62 +37k

    Mitch Clark (GEE) FWD 194.5k 60 +21k

    Jack Sinclair (StK) MID 173.6k 59 +46k

    Tim Membrey (StK) FWD 199.8k 55 +21k

    Ahmed Saad (StK) FWD 182.2k 53 +36k

    Cory Gregson (GEE) MID 154.1k 51 +43k

    Touk Miller (GCS) MID 153.2k 50 +35k

    Jack Lonie (StK) FWD 151.5k 49 +25k

    Jackson Nelson (WCE) MID 141.3k 41 +21k

    Jarrod Garlett (GCS) MID 164.1k 39 +19k

    Nathan Brown (COL) DEF 159.2k 38 +2k

    Jed Anderson (HAW) MID 148.5k 33 +4k

    Nakia Cockatoo (GEE) MID 173.3k 32 -9k

    Aidan Corr (GWS) DEF 195.1k 32 -6k

    Jed Bews (GEE) DEF 191k 30 -10k

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Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Iain, Apr 22, 2015.

    1. malbi
      malbi
      I have still have Goodes too and missed out on Oxley. Goodes being sub hasn't helped and he is on the extended bench again. I should have traded last week, but feel that the trade is still on.
      TU: Goodes to Oxley
      TD: Hold trade
    2. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      Andrews could be dropped, injured, subbed, suspended no real reason to risk it unless Goodes is likely to lose $40k this week IMO

    3. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      could still be sore or resticted wouldnt want to rely on him as donut cover
    4. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      how does tarrant help you get a league win? if i assume you need him as cover i reckon you would be better trading Bartel to a Premium if you want to get the 4 pts
    5. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      either should be a good pick Danny G, that said there are probably half a dozen others around the $550-$580k mark you can slot in pretty comfortably

      personally i am not sold on Neale and I wouldnt be bringing in someone to possibly sell them once they go off the boil
    6. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      mate if you do make that trade you had better hope Goldstein keeps up his form and doesnt drop off
    7. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      sideways to rich or martin makes sense

      as the steadier has said a downgrade in a week or 2 probably wont hurt too much

      a 3rd option would be to upgrade Wells to a cheap (or not so cheap) premo when you downgrade one of your cows maybe in round 6??
    8. Guardian_Hawk
      Guardian_Hawk
      Thanks for the help guys.

      Wells was to be used as a stepping stone for an earlier than usual upgrade - as he goes up and a premo comes down (e.g. Ablett)- trade them in.

      360K seems a waste on the bench though. In 2 weeks maybe some of my other rookies will have mooed enough for a downgrade anyway.

      But Rich and Martin have already gone up 50K and won't make a bucket more - (Rich will make 70K and be very handy at current ave (105) but only 27K at usual 85 ave). Martin similar - will go up more but average less.

      Might send this to the thumbs:

      TU- Trade Wells to a Rich type - 360K is too much on the bench
      TD- Hold Wells - use bench cover and wait for a better option (such as a rookie in 2 weeks)
    9. Spionkop
      Spionkop
      Goldy is too much of a statistical outlier to be trusted and I would expect him to drop a sub 80 week pretty soon. My take on the rucks so far is that there will be a lot more variation in scores from week to week but the average score between the rucks will be much closer than in previous years and the top rucks will settle at around $500k.

      I have the same rucks and am strongly considering backing my theory by moving Mummy to Grundy and freeing up $200k and then upgrade Salem to Swan.
    10. HeavyMen
      HeavyMen
      Good read BB, good discussions by all
    11. G-Train
      G-Train
      I am presuming you made the conservative and IMO wise move of having and DPP Ruck in forward line as there is no cover for them.
      I would stick to that plan. Haven't had to utilise yet but no doubt will at some stage.

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