ChiefBet is back for another instalment of Premiership Odds. Without further ado... 2016 ORFFA Premiership Odds: 2.00 Venus Bay Vultures The young man deserves premiership favouritism. He is trying to downplay it currently with injuries to first choice mids Beams and O'Meara. Premierships aren't won in March and April however and there is still plenty of talent to qualify for the finals without those two. We have seen from the last couple of seasons, where you finish on the ladder means nothing. It's a level playing field once August rolls around. 2.50 Mount Beauty Uglies ChiefBet has been guilty of overrating this side every year since they have done the odds. But this has to be their year. Matthew Boyd and Christian Salem turning into defenders is huge and Trent McKenzie looks far more engaged this pre-season, so all of a sudden a weakness doesn't look so weak. The best forward line going round, an equally superb midfield and big Maximus Gawn in the ruck and arguably the Uglies have a stronger Best 15 than the Vultures. Just not quite the overall depth, hence the slight edge to Venus Bay. 4.00 Iron Knob Losing Hodge from the backline and Swan from the forward line was a kick in the Knob, especially the Hodge move, although getting Roberton from Wagga Wagga was a very good move that will help offset the loss. The midfield depth is the envy of all other sides, especially with virtual new recruit Gary Ablett returning to lead the side. They are going to need the depth, because like the Western Bulldogs of 2015, Iron Knob is looking like playing without a ruckman. Still half of 100 is 50 points and that will probably be enough for another long post season run. 5.00 Foul Bay Along with Iron Knob, this perennial powerhouse looks to have been overtaken by a few newer models. CR is trying to orchestrate a mini-rejuvenation of his list, but like Ross the Boss he doesn't really trust the kids. Losing Roughy is a big blow to an already weakened forward line, slightly offset by regaining Tom Liberatore. Libba might take a while to get back to his best, Selwood, Bartel, Yarran and Johnson will either be absent or very underdone, so Dangerfield and Shaw are going to have to carry the side while hoping that the bandages don't unravel off the big Mummy, because if they do, all will be left is a rotting corpse of a once formidable side. 10.00 Larrikin Lagoon, Gariwerd, Darraweit, Waikickamoocow, Wagga Wagga Nine doesn't go into eight, so one of these sides is unfortunately going to be on the outside looking in, in what shapes to be one of the most exciting finals races the ORFFA has seen. The defending champ Lefties have perhaps the highest ceiling, because as we saw from last years finals series, Todd Goldstein goes very large, very often and is the ironman of the competition. The midfield packs a massive punch, Leigh Montagna moving to the forward line to support Tom Lynch is a massive bonus and the backline is solid enough. My only concern is the forward line after the first two. Team selection will be important each week. Gariwerd has been carefully developing a deep and even list. Every player in its best 15 should average over 85ppg so this will be enough to clear 1300 each week which means a lot of victories. Maybe they are lacking a genuine superstar scorer, so Ant will be hoping that one or two players can jump into the 115ppg category which could vault this side into top 4 calculations. Darraweit are beginning down the path of a list refresh after coming close to a premiership on a few occasions. They probably have the lowest scoring best 15 of this esteemed bunch, but they probably also possess the best list depth of these finals aspirants, and we all know that injuries are going to play a part in this season unfortunately. The Cows, like the Guim, are embarking on a rebuild, although a slightly more bold one. They did very well out of the draft, with ChiefBet really rating the selections of Howe and especially Hall, who could end up as one of the top 10 forwards of the season with the lack of Swallow and O'Meara in the GC midfield. Oh, yeah and they have Fyfe (and Hannebery who isn't too shabby either), so when all else fails they will just kick it to the great man and let him do the rest. Wagga Wagga were the stiffest of any side last year when it came to injury, with 14th place on the ladder not being an accurate reflection of the talent on the list. They leveraged some backline strength of their squad to gain some scoring power in the midfield. Still not being able to count on David Swallow is a pain, although Clayton Oliver looks like he might be able to fill the void. 13.00 Charlie's Opening, Whitsundays The Opening were dealt a cruel blow in the preseason with the loss of young defender Jackson Thurlow for the season. It was probably the line where the opening could least afford to lose quality. Judging by coach Bandit's drafting strategy (which ChiefBet agrees with, btw), the Opening will be going for 'defence by committee' this season, hoping they can strike some gold with a couple of young guns. The rest of the field looks solid. They will provide stiff opposition for a lot of sides. The Warriors perhaps had a disappointing 2015, but will be buoyed by the move of Michael Barlow to the forward line. Matthew Lobbe will get an uninterrupted crack at the ruck and Ollie Wines and Jason Johannisen look set for big seasons. Sam Gray was a very good pick up and will make an immediate impact. 14.00 Birdsville The Battlers have probably been underestimated a bit, given their propensity to always be around when the whips are cracking at the end of the season. Their backline is incredibly deep with seven of the Battlers defence probably walk up starts in most sides. It's just the forward line that really worries me. A fit Daniel Wells will help, but unfortunately not enough. 16.00 Gundagai, Wineglass Bay, Cradle Mountain ChiefBet does not agree with the opinions of a certain reigning premiership coach and believes that this is the year that the Hoppers get off the bottom of the ladder. We know that the Hoppers don't believe in defence, but Jacob Weitering will do his darnedest to remedy this. I bet Snoz can't wait for Mills to move to the backline next year. Gundagai might not be as far away as people think. Bring on 2018. New ownership at the Packers sees Tracey take the helm in what should be an interesting battle for household supremacy. ChiefBet expects the Bay to beat the Bar. Fasolo looks set to feast on Collingwood's improved midfield depth and there is genuine class with Sloane, Mundy, Miles and Tom Lynch in the side. Cradle Mountain has been the club most disadvantaged by those cheating pricks down at BomberLand losing arguably the two most valuable Dons in Heppell and Hurley. This has stopped the Devils from pushing for a finals berth this year, although baring any other misfortune, ChiefBet expects them to make a big push next year, particularly if some of their young forwards make the leap this year. 18.00 Nunawading Nic Nat, JPK, Dal Santo, Simpson, Broadbent, Wood, Bell. The first seven names are very good. They are just missing midfield grunt and half a forward line. 20.00 Marble Bar, Lovely Banks Along with Gundagai, Marble Bar has assembled some of the best young talent in the land. Unfortunately, apart from Callan Ward, Rory Laird and to a lesser extent Devon Smith, they lack the necessary consistent scoring power to challenge. Teams will hope they don't play this mob when the GWS plays Essendon and Carlton. Jen is still trying to work her way through the mire that was the previous administration and is doing an admirable job, its just that the list was full of ageing non-performers, kind of like Carlton's list. The young talent is starting to come through the door. Heeney and Parish will be great (the coach clearly likes blondes) and the selection of Nathan Vardy was very astute (I know one coach who was very dirty that he didn't find his way to the Chooks). Duncan and Caddy are genuine talents too and I think the backline is in the top 6 in the comp. Combine this side with Gundagai and the team would be a top 5 team. Overall, this season will definitely be the most competitive season of ORFFA we have had. Good luck all!
Agree with mine... And the top 8-9. Nearly rolled the dice on trading Swallow and Hooker to really start the rebuild but couldn't pull the trigger
An excellent summation CR - well done. If the price of dairy was not so depressed I think a few of our supporters might have made their way to the local ChiefBet for a punt despite management pointing out 2017 is the first year the rebuild might payoff.
Seems like a fair summation to me, though the year of the orange tsunami is approaching I'd definitely want 2 bets based on the above, $100 on Birdsville to make the 8 at what should be generous odds and a Venus Bay/Mt Beauty quinella at the top of the ladder at the conclusion of the H&A season at what would be terrible odds
I applaud your effort but underestimate the Nuffers at your peril. Expect a visit from some Trump supporters soon my friend.
g'day Andy, is there any truth to the rumour that following receipt of some hefty funding your home games will be played at the Trump Arena Nunawading with the cheer squad re-branded as the Trumpettes?
Nah m8. I'm a Sanders man. Unfortunately he's not into corporate sponsorship. However we do keep a clandestine association with the Trumpettes to perform the deeds formerly done for us by Tony Soprano, RIP.
Cheers Chief! Definitely think I have stiff competition up top and may be a little lucky to be regarded as favorite, should be a very close season up near the top!
Thanks Chief, I am hoping in the next two or so years my team will be a top contender. As if I can be in a draft and not pick up at least one Geelong player, sorry but there was no other choice but Vardy .
"...........Gundagai might not be as far away as people think" Beware the Hoppers - great write up Chief, look forward to this every year. Well done !! (PS: The Lefties Manager knows didley squat.....I have that info on very good authority)
Lovely write-up as usual Chief. Members of my low-scoring starting 15 are looking over their shoulder a little more this year I think ... there seems to be a bit more competition for spots in the team - particularly up forward and in the mids. And Ivan doesn't have a mortgage on first ruck duties anymore either ....
CR, love this mate! Top job. I like how you have lumped me in with a group who could potentially finish 9th... Im not sure if you know, but I have finished 9th in 3 out of the 4 seasons thus far, and I haven't yet made the finals. I am just hoping I don't follow the Tigers' theme of not being able to win if I ever do manage to break the pattern of 9th place finishes. I think my mid ladder placings are also partly to blame for why I don't have a star, but only partly... Picking Dayle Garlett instead of Bontempelli will always haunt me, because that was the choice I was weighing up at the time. Also Toumpas was my target in his draft, but that didn't work out too well. anyway, I am hoping the likes of Brodie Smith, Cam Guthrie, Chad Wingard and Jack Steven, among others, actually do step up this year and become genuine stars of the comp. realistically though, I can't see my mob challenging for flags for a couple more years yet. I just hope Shannon Hurn, Nathan Jones and Lyndon Dunn can still play then. Thanks for the writeup CR. Always interesting
Brother Meatloaf looks like he has lost some weight. The prison island might be in for a lean season. Thanks for slipping WSW up the ladder a little. I see this year as one of fortune, more so than other years. The luck of the draw, injuries, rookie burnout and suspensions will play a bigger role in a tight comp.
CR may well have closed the book and absconded with the proceeds Banditto. I think he is nervous that at $1.05 for the win there would still be a queue forming to back Foul Bay. The 4/1 at season start is a faint memory.
ChiefBet may provide an update after the MSD. Still happy to take money on the Chooks though. As I have stated, we are only an injury or two away from disaster. We are lucky that Dahlhaus got injured in the bye rounds and may only miss a game or two of ORFFA. ChiefBet feels this is a targeted attack by those who are either trying to deflect from their own team's performance or to lessen pressure on themselves by trying to fly 'under the radar'. I'd suggest that the reigning champs are flying under the radar, Mount Beauty is a genuine flag threat and if the Knob get a ruckman in the MSD period then they will be hard to beat. While the loss of Beams hurts the Vultures, they aren't to be discounted either. Premierships aren't won at the half way point of the season. Just ask the Golden State Warriors...