Best Buys - Round 4

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Apr 13, 2016.

By tipbetpro on Apr 13, 2016 at 11:12 AM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

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    So we’ve done our NRL tips for the week (http://www.tipbetpro.com/#!current-round/kzu9o) and figured “why not start up a Best Buys section?” before its time to do our AFL tips.

    Again, like TheTassieHawk, I don't profess to know any more than the average SCer but hopefully this will start a bit of a conversation.

    We missed the boat last week, when there was a lot of good buys and opportunities to fix your team (or completely stuff it up – did anyone trade in Bob Murphy off the back of his two 100s?), but there is still plenty of value out there.
    By position our Best Buys would be Marcus Adams as a defender, Aaron Hall as a forward and Max Gawn as a ruck (let’s hope you already have all 3 of those!).

    Which leaves our "Buy Of The Week" for round 4:
    At the moment he finds himself in the heart of less than 50% of SC teams, which some would say is evidence of the decreasing faith the Australian public has for a player to rise back after injury. I myself was a doubter this year, I too had no place in the heart of my team for this man – but we will be worshipping the son of god on Saturday when he takes on his cross town/state rivals and will smash out a 150+ score. I am of course talking about the great man, the original Perma-Captain, TipBetPro’s number 1 ranked player – Mr Gary Ablett Jnr.

    And now for the rest.
    I’ve chucked in a few comments, but please add more details and information in the comment section.
    Hopefully this format is fairly easy to follow, it goes:

    POSITION Name (CLUB) – current price (expected increase) – AVERAGE


    DEFENDERS
    DEF Michael Hartley (ESS) - 117k (+46k) - AVG=70 (on the bubble, got another solid 53 last week so not a bad option if you are still stuck with a rookie donut – but does he have job security? (that’s a question, I have no idea…)

    F/D Marcus Adams (WBD) - 226k (+68k) - AVG=105 (If you don’t have him, well there is no helping you – but maybe grab him now)

    DEF Orazio Fantasia (ESS) - 282k (+33k) - AVG=89

    DEF Josh Gibson (HAW) - 524k (+31k) - AVG=122 (his average may look good, but that is mainly off the back a 190 two weeks ago, I’d say buyer beware)

    DEF Bachar Houli (RIC) - 535k (+23k) - AVG=115

    Midfielders
    MID Josh Dunkley (WBD) - 117k (+24k) - AVG=47 (he is also on the bubble, and will remain there until he plays again – will that be soon? I hope so because he is still in our team…)

    MID Jade Gresham (STK) - 144k (+12k) - AVG=41

    MID Brent Macaffer (COL) - 174k (+3k) - AVG=38

    MID Aaron YOUNG (PTA) - 253k (+48k) - AVG=98

    MID Tom LIBERATORE (WBD) - 404k (+22k) - AVG=105 (good value for his price, but will he be a gun/keeper? May not be worth bringing in if you don’t already have him)

    MID James Kelly (ESS) - 451k (+26k) - AVG=111 (Again, good value for his price but not sure if this will last)

    MID David Zaharakis (ESS) - 469k (+26k) - AVG=122 (In the new-look, or is that old-look, Essendon will Zaharakis be a gun midfielder?)

    MID Jack Ziebell (NTH) - 491k (+23k) - AVG=109

    MID Luke PARKER (SYD) - 578k (+12k) - AVG=135

    MID Robbie Gray (PTA) - 608k (+6k) - AVG=126

    MID Gary Ablett (GCS) - 636k (+3k) - AVG=131 (BOTW – need I say more…)

    MID Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) - 658k (-4k) - AVG=135 (Who would not have this man in their team? Well us, which was my fault – I point this out so that maybe you think twice before taking my SC advice!)

    Rucks
    RUC Max GAWN (MEL) - 563k (+13k) - AVG=117 (for those sad few people out there with Sandi, Gawn would make a great replacement – he didn’t score as much as Goldy, but he definitely had the better of him for much of the game - IMHO)

    R/M Mark Blicavs (GEE) - 574k (+3k) - AVG=118

    RUC Todd Goldstein (NTH) - 688k (-4k) - AVG=131

    Forwards
    M/F Jayden Short (RIC) - 117k (+26k) - AVG=49 (on the bubble, but I have no idea about his JS – any Richmond fans out there want to share their thoughts?)

    FWD Nicholas Kommer (ESS) - 124k (+10k) - AVG=35

    FWD Daniel Rioli (RIC) - 158k (+15k) - AVG=47

    FWD Charlie Curnow (CAR) - 171k (+14k) - AVG=48

    FWD Callum Ah Chee (GCS) - 189k (+30k) - AVG=67

    FWD Jed Lamb (CAR) - 190k (0k) - AVG=38

    M/F Daniel Wells (NTH) - 318k (+42k) - AVG=103 (if he continues this form, then he is still well under valued)

    M/F Aaron Hall (GCS) - 488k (+32k) - AVG=129 (as previously said, Hall was and still is a great pick up)

    FWD Eddie Betts (ADE) - 489k (+22k) - AVG=109

    FWD Jarrad Waite (NTH) - 508k (+45k) - AVG=140 (Why is Waite mentioned here? Well he is averaging 140 with all scores above 120 –yes he is Waite, but stats don’t lie – although I myself won’t be touching Waite…)

    M/F Dayne Zorko (BRL) - 543k (+22k) - AVG=130

    So that’s Best Buys for this week.
    Also, I had some vague cut-offs for who made the grade:
    • Anyone who was going to go up by +25k (good value)
    • Anyone worth less than 200k and has played 2 games (rookies on the bubble)
    • Anyone averaging more than 125 (guns)
    Does anyone have any thoughts on these? Suggested changes for next week?

    As for what I’ll be doing with our team this week? Well we have plenty of money that I could spend, but I think I’ll refrain from trading this week in the hope that our rookies will go up and Danger will go down.
    And hopefully Dunkley gets a few more games – I believe their maybe a spot opening up on the Doggies team…

    Good luck to all with your trades and hopefully some wins on the weekend. For all your trade discussion feel free to join us in the comments section below.

    Cheers
    Kim

    http://www.tipbetpro.com/ - your statistically tested guide to tipping and betting on AFL and NRL
     
    tipbetpro, Apr 13, 2016
    #1
    • Like Like x 5

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, Apr 13, 2016.

  • Page 1 of 3
    1. walesy
      walesy
      I'm thinking this week, through the powers of DPP, of trading out Gresham, to bring in Hartley.

      Not just for the Hartley increase, but to also open up Gresham as a downgrade option later on. (Assuming he wasn't just given a rest).

      I'm worried about Hartley's JS though, with Grima apparently a good chance to take over.

      Meh, might be worth to wait an extra week, though Hartley does tick so many of the boxes that I like to see.
      • Like Like x 2
      walesy, Apr 13, 2016
      #2
    2. choppers
      choppers
      I think I'll be trading out Gresham too if he doesn't get named again.
      Just tossing up who should come in, Gibson Rance or KK, using DPP.
      choppers, Apr 13, 2016
      #3
    3. Penske file
      Penske file
      Thoughts on GC Lynch worth consideration as a POD?
      • Like Like x 5
      • Dislike Dislike x 1
      Penske file, Apr 13, 2016
      #4
    4. That KI Guy
      That KI Guy
      Yep same boat here, either Gresham or Hewitt to go. Going with Docherty myself.
      • Like Like x 3
      That KI Guy, Apr 13, 2016
      #5
    5. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      Yeah we still have a "mistake" in our backline (I won
      Has a good average, and looks to be going up a fair bit over the next 3 weeks or so - but will these scores continue when the Suns start losing a few games? Well just looking at his 2015 scores - yes he can definitely score well in a losing team.
      Of the 7 times he cracked 100, only 2 of those were when the Suns won. So he can definitely score well in a losing team, but is prone to having the odd shocker (3 games of 51 or less last year).
      Not a certainty, but not a bad POD.
      Last edited: Apr 13, 2016
      • Like Like x 3
      tipbetpro, Apr 13, 2016
      #6
    6. walesy
      walesy
      Gibbo, Rance and Docherty should all be top 6 backs come year end I reckon. Gibbo has a massive score running through his average though, so you're probably paying near top-dollar at the moment (unless he keeps doing it!!)
      • Like Like x 3
      walesy, Apr 13, 2016
      #7
    7. lukus
      lukus

      I've been thinking exactly the same thing right down to the JS question. There is also the option of waiting a week for Ruggles but I think Hewett is a high chance of being dropped this week as well meaning that he could become Ruggles next week. I have Adams, Brown and AMT in defence to throw forward and Menadue, Merrett, Martin, Wells and Hall forward to move into the middle so plenty of flexibility to do both Gresham > Hartley & Hewett > Ruggles if need be.

      I don't think Gresham was given a rest - he was off the pace in the first two rounds which really appeared to rock his disposal and decision-making which were his strengths as a junior. Add to that the Saints impressive win on Saturday and I think it will be a little while until we see Jade back in the red, white and black.
      • Like Like x 3
      lukus, Apr 13, 2016
      #8
    8. walesy
      walesy
      Think you might be right. He did alright in the VFL though, 24 touches. But nothing to demand a spot in a team coming off a big win.
      walesy, Apr 13, 2016
      #9
    9. GaryReal
      GaryReal
      Thanks for the effort tipbet
      I'm a fan of Hartley too, actually I think he looks miles better than mbrown with much better js... but who's to know?
      If he'd played round 1 we'd all have him.
      I feel I'll regret missing him... but I guess it does seem ruggles is better next week probably
      • Like Like x 1
      GaryReal, Apr 13, 2016
      #10
    10. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      That's a good idea GaryReal - I will add a "Maybe Next Week" section for Round 5 and chuck in the rookies and others who may be a good option in a week's time.

      Ruggles, Byrne, Byrne-Jones and Wagner would have all made that list this week.
      • Like Like x 1
      tipbetpro, Apr 13, 2016
      #11
    11. Senator96
      Senator96
      Anyone thinking of doing a B.Crouch to Aaron Young midprice sideways trade? Only makes about 50k but Youngs two scores have been quite good and slightly better than Crouch just not sure where he is playing and if he can maintain those scores.
      • Like Like x 1
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      Senator96, Apr 13, 2016
      #12
    12. brownje
      brownje
      I got rid of Gresham last week so I hope you guys are right. Brought in Parish which I am feeling pretty good about though, despite his price. Waite is an interesting one. I remember he was a proper premium and regularly in my team years ago. Its just so hard to comprehend such a form turnaround at his age.
      • Like Like x 1
      brownje, Apr 13, 2016
      #13
    13. Bearfly
      Bearfly
      Being a Port supporter (so therefore I scrutinise their games much closer than others) I can tell you that Young has been playing predominately as a half-fwd with a few bursts in the middle. This is opposed to how he had been used in the past as primarily a mid.
      Has been involved in scoring chains and doing the 1%ers as well as hitting the scoreboard and laying some solid tackles - can see his output continuing along the 80's-100's, even if Chad returns this week (am expecting to see Neade dropped if/when Chad returns this week - Neade has been pretty poor over first 3 rounds and Young has done more than enough to keep his spot ahead of Neade, as has Karl Amon).

      I expect this time next week we will be discussing Darcy Byrne-Jones who will be on the bubble - put in a solid effort and is guaranteed selection this week (listen to Hinkley's post match press conference where he said DBJ will play again this week).
      • Like Like x 3
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 1
      Bearfly, Apr 13, 2016
      #14
    14. NedFlanders
      NedFlanders
      Thoughts on Weitering - is it too late to bring him in as a correctional?

      I'm forced to play one of MBrown, MHartley or AMcDT at D6 at the moment, and I'm not convinced about JS of 2 of those 3.

      1 = Yes, go for it,
      2 = Nope, let that ship sail. But keep an eye on Ruggles this week as he may be a better solution,
      3 = As for 2, and suck it up. Keep your 3 sucky Bombers.
      • Option 2 Option 2 x 13
      • Option 1 Option 1 x 4
      • Option 3 Option 3 x 3
      NedFlanders, Apr 13, 2016
      #15
    15. RPritch
      RPritch
      Richmond fan here (unfortunately).
      I've got nothing concrete on Short, but my opinion is that he's not up to it yet and with the way we're losing Hardwick will be forced to make changes, so I can see him getting dropped this week or the next if this week isn't good from him. Even if he plays each week I don't think he will average well enough to be worth a trade anyway, pass on Short.
      • Like Like x 1
      RPritch, Apr 13, 2016
      #16
    16. RPritch
      RPritch
      I'd go for KK myself
      • Like Like x 2
      RPritch, Apr 13, 2016
      #17
    17. Shagga05
      Shagga05
      I think Hartley has decent JS, if brown plays fwd there is room for Hartley/Gwilt/Grima in the backline. I saw Gwilt on Dixon last week and he's not up being on a big tall fwd so needs help. With this thought I will bring Hartley in if selected this week for Gresham.

      Next week if Ruggles form continues I think I will being get him in too, maybe for Mundue or even Brown, just need to keep the cash coming in for hopefully a Heath Shaw upgrade the week after.

      So far I've only used one trade when I planned for two so in my eyes I have a free hit sitting in the bank. This meant I missed getting in Parish after bulking at trading Barlow.
      • Like Like x 1
      Shagga05, Apr 13, 2016
      #18
    18. Shagga05
      Shagga05
      Out of that group I would take Rance
      Shagga05, Apr 13, 2016
      #19
    19. NedFlanders
      NedFlanders
      [QUOTE="Even if he plays each week I don't think he will average well enough to be worth a trade anyway, pass on Short.[/QUOTE]

      I suffer from the same affliction, and I agree with this.

      Hardwick says nice things about the kid, but he got his opportunity because of the injury to Edwards. I can't see Hardwick persisting with both Rioli and Short in the forward line whilst continuing to lose games. A Deledio return probably brings his use-by date further forward. Pass.
      • Like Like x 4
      NedFlanders, Apr 13, 2016
      #20
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