Some of the popular (and not so popular) SC picks are stinking it up losing $20k or more after Round 3 and looking at huge price drops if they don't find form in the next few weeks. When we don't have these players we can happily grab the popcorn and watch as their price plummets and look for value as a fallen premium later on in the season when their form takes a turn for the good.

But when we do have them it becomes a worry. 3 quiet games at any time during the season is frustrating but at the start of the season super coaches start to panic.

One of the golden rules of Supercoach is not to sideways trade your premiums, as most times they will come good (when I compared back to the same article form last year the average full season increased was around 11ppg, with a maximum around 23ppg). However, there are exceptions for every rule, and if injuries have been kind or you have been successful in the past using an aggressive trade strategy you should definitely consider using an early trade to correct a mistake in your team, particularly as the "Golden Rule" was created when we had 24 trades only and I feel 30 trades means gives you more freedom to act in the first 3-4 rounds.

This isn't an article to discuss who to trade IN, that's covered over in the Best Buys
http://tooserious.net/forum/threads/best-buys-round-4.89405

PART 1 - PREMIUMS
The following are some of the most SC relevant (total ownership >3%) underperforming premium players (dropping $20K or more to date) and the objective of Part One of this blog is to discuss whether to hold and hope or to pull the lever and trade them out before your SC season follows them down the gurgler.

I don't profess to know any more than the average SCer, but hope to start debate about players you may be looking to rid yourself of, or hear and read that others are about to rage trade out. Have your say either way.

Defenders

Heath Shaw - $578.0k - 87, 74, 129 (avg 97) - $29k price drop in Round 3, facing further drops of $14k, $4k and $14k if he hits his average

Optimistic View – keeps up a 95 plus average and holds down D1 or D2 nicely

Pessimistic View – throws in another stinker and then bottoms out at sub $500k very early in the season and gets traded in by the masses

TTH Says – Heater’s 2015 was always going to be difficult to live up to. He has had plenty of it but has been less efficient in his early games but when he has just smashed out a 129 there is no way he should be considered as trade out material.

M Boyd - $524.7k - 96, 74, 78 (avg83) - $36k price drop after Round 3, facing $26k, $18k and $13k price drops if he hits his average.

Optimistic View - smashes out 100 plus against Carlton and Brisbane in the next 2 matches and bottoms out around the $500K mark, season average between 95-100.

Pessimistic View – age may slow him downand he may be called upon to pinch hit in SC unfriendly roles to accommodate the Dogs many young guns.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP.

T McDonald - $485.5k - 110, 67, 55 (avg77) - $32k price drop after Round 3, facing $30k, $21k and $10k price drops if he hits his average.

Optimistic View – he was on fire in 2015 and with the Dees next 4 against the Pies, Tiges, Saints and Suns there is substantial room for improvement and an average in the high 80s.

Pessimistic View – Dunn and Garland are out of form and may destabilize the Melbourne back 6 and show 2015 to be a spike year., an average in the low 80s may result

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP and see how he performs in the next 2-3 weeks.

J McGovern - $405.8k - 54, 81, 64 (avg66) - $24k price drop after Round 3, facing $10k, $13k and $10k price drops if he hits his average.

Optimistic View – one of the surprises of the 2014 SC season McGovern has talent to burn and there is substantial room for improvement and an average in the low-mid 80s is possible, meaning McGovern won’t drop much below $400k.

Pessimistic View – 2015 showed McGovern as prone to knocks and niggles which but has too much impact on SC scoring, he can fill a role until the higher priced premos bottom out more fully.

TTH Says – due to the lack of breakout defenders this year McGovern is yet another I would keep but you could trade out if you wish to rework your team structure and bring a D/F rookie back to the defense.

Forwards

Barlow - $471.1k - 61, 60, 99 (avg 73) - $16k price drop after Round 3, facing price drops of $16k, $8k and $15k if he hits his average

Optimistic View - Round 1 and 2 were a blip, he might leak another $30k while averaging mid 80s early in the season, which might be less than what you expect but unlikely to be your teams biggest disaster.

Pessimistic View – Barlow fell away in SC terms in 2015 and while I thought he could average 100-105 this season Freo fans and SC nuts alike are speculating he could average under 85 or be dropped from the Dockers side.

TTH Says – don’t panic, you and many others picked him for a reason and while heaps traded him out in Round 3 sometimes a non-trade is a better move. IF you are convinced that he has to go there are still some cheap high-celling Forward options around (Zorko has yet to re-price) and you may have BenKenn and/or Menadue in the guts meaning you might want to restructure and load up on another Midfielder.

S Gray - $459.2k - 99, 57, 78 (avg 78) - $22k price drop after Round 3, facing price drops of $19k, $9k and $7k if he hits his average

Optimistic View – has been another to get plenty of it and can lift his scoring back to round 1 levels by being more efficient, Ports injuries give him a good chance of playing a key role and from Round 6 Port’s draw opens up nicely, so an average in the 90s is a chance.

Pessimistic View – unproven and not hitting his targets to me is a sign of potential doom

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP but if sub 80 scores are still occurring when he plays Brisbane and Carlton in Rounds 7 and 8 then get your exit strategy happening fast.

Midfielders

Fyfe - $643.4.7k - 61, 157, 115 (avg 111) - $27k cheaper than pre-season, $1k, $15k and $14k price drops in future weeks

Optimistic View – He keeps knocking out the scores of the last 2 weeks (and previous seasons).

Pessimistic View – honestly, I don’t have one – he may stink it up some time before the byes and become cheap enough to be upgraded but most serious SC players will have started with him or get him in at some stage.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP

Pendles - $597.2k - 89, 110, 102 (avg 100) - a price drop of $30k so far, with $15k, 15k and $13k predicted to follow if he hits his average

Optimistic View – the man has scored about as well as anyone not named GAJ and is scoring tons whilst nursing a bad rib and having very little effective on ball time in a side that is mediocre at best (at this stage).

Pessimistic View – the rib injury knock may be something that impacts for some time meaning he may be averaging low 100s rather than the 120s you expect of Pendles and his ilk.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP. As with Fyfe you keep the SC champions unless they break down and address holes elsewhere in your side.

JPK - $570.1k - 75, 95 and 124 (avg 98) - a price drop of $25k in Round 3, and facing price drops of $7k, $5k and $13k in the next few weeks

Optimistic View – He will easily average 105-110 for the season and is the players the Swannies turn to when the going gets tough and contested ball is where JPK shines

Pessimistic View – he does tend to be a “reverse flat track bully” at times when the Swans are coasting to comfortable wins and there a few games coming up which could potentially be over by half time.

TTH Says – You picked him as a POD and he ia averaging 100 without scoring one of his 150 plus, 20 contested posseion monster games we all know is coming soone rather than later. DEFINITELY KEEP.

Sloane - $540.1k - 96, 81 and 92 (avg 92) - a price drop of $29k in Round 3, and facing price drops of $19k, $12k and $10k in the next few weeks

Optimistic View – Sloane has been a solid A-grade Mid for the past few years and injury aside was damaging in 2015, with the forward line of the Crows looking very dangerous and having multiple threats Sloane won’t look back once he scores his first ton of the year.

Pessimistic View – Danger leaving means Sloane is bound to draw more attention from the opposition, combined with Sauce being off his game early on Sloane may be in line for a year when he struggles to average much over the 105 mark.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP, he is a good chance to be a top 10 midfielder by the time we reach the byes.

The Bont - $525.3k - 110, 79 and 67 (avg 85) - a price drop of $32k in Round 3, and facing price drops of $27k, $20k and $10k in the next few weeks

Optimistic View – Only the best of the best crack the ton in their 2nd season, the Bont will be averaging near enough to 110 by season’s end, plus he has Carlton and the Lions in Rounds 4 and 5.

Pessimistic View – looking back to last year’s corresponding article the highest increase I could find was 15-20 points so a season average of 100-105 is indeed very possible. Libba being back could be a major negative.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP unless there are whispers about injuries (I haven’t heard any but sometimes these come after a drop in scoring), or he starts playing a SC unfriendly role. If you picked him you will kick yourself when he inevitably hits form in the next 2-3 weeks.

(break needed due to the 10,000 character article limit - see the next post on Page 1 for the continuation)