Best Buys - Round 7

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, May 4, 2016.

By tipbetpro on May 4, 2016 at 1:25 PM
  1. tipbetpro

    tipbetpro Active Member

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    It’s a bye round in NRL this week, so we’ve done a special write up for the international week (NRL-Rep-Round), that should mean I’ve had more time to scan through the stats and find some good buys, but to be honest I contemplated retiring on top after the Parker call.

    This week we are just looking for that upgrade target – maybe you are downgrading one player and upgrading another, or maybe you just have some spare cash burning a hole through your SC pocket.

    Last week I said that I thought this player had turned the corner, but may still go down in price a little bit. Well he had turned the corner and got 140+ which sent his price up by just under $10k. Don’t be deterred though, even based off his current average of 106 he will continue to go up in value as a defender – and I think that average will rise. He started the season slow with an 87 then a 74, but in the last 4 weeks he has managed to get 129, 70, 132 and that 143.
    He is in around 38% of teams already, but if you don’t have Heath Shaw, then the time to buy is now.
    He has Freo and Gold Coast to come in the next couple of weeks which he scored 145 and 126 respectively, the last time he played them – but let’s face it Heath Shaw is a gun and can do well against anyone.

    As always the format :
    POSITION Name (CLUB) – current price (expected increase) – AVERAGE

    DEFENDERS
    Rookies:

    DEF Darcy Tucker (FRE) - 117k (+27k) - AVG=51 (If Freo play their rookies then Tucker could be an option as a downgrade)
    DEF Thomas Lee (STK) - 124k (+42k) - AVG=67 (Didn’t play last week, but could be a good downgrade target)

    Keepers:
    DEF Courtenay Dempsey (ESS) - 292k (+34k) - AVG=93 (Will Dempsey keep this up? If you think so then he could be a cheap option after his first two games)
    DEF Heath Shaw (GWS) - 562k (+15k) - AVG=106 (Buy of the Week – if you upgrade one player this week, bring him in).

    Midfielders
    Rookies:

    MID Josh Smith (COL) - 102k (+64k) - AVG=84 (Looks like a great downgrade target)
    MID Josh Dunkley (WBD) - 117k (+24k) - AVG=47 (Another downgrade option if he is named)

    Keepers:
    MID Bryce Gibbs (CAR) - 470k (+23k) - AVG=100 (Got 130 last week and 121 the week before – but that was against two easier opponents – he could be a good buy, but not without its risks)
    MID Callan Ward (GWS) - 587k (-4k) - AVG=118 (Ward is flying under the radar of most coaches and only in ~5% of teams – could be a good POD if you need one)
    MID Luke PARKER (SYD) - 596k (+18k) - AVG=130 (He should really already be in your team, but it’s not too late)
    MID Gary Ablett (GCS) - 596k (-13k) - AVG=118 (Ablett is still Ablett and a worthy pick nonetheless)
    MID Joel Selwood (GEE) - 598k (+13k) - AVG=117 (You’d be happy if you picked him in your starting line-up, could still be an upgrade target but there are probably safer options)
    MID Daniel Hannebery (SYD) - 627k (-2k) - AVG=121 (Another Sydney midfielder doing well)
    MID Patrick Dangerfield (GEE) - 645k (+4k) - AVG=129 (Is Danger the new Ablett?)

    Rucks
    Rookies:

    R/F Mason Cox (COL) - 117k (+48k) - AVG=71 (A great story, but will he keep his spot? 2 goals against the Eagles should ensure he is named this week)
    RUC Sam GRIMLEY (ESS) - 124k (+13k) - AVG=38 (Easily the worst of the 3 options this week)
    RUC Daniel Currie (GCS) - 163k (+29k) - AVG=62 (Has waited a long time to play AFL football, will he finally keep his spot?)

    Keepers:
    RUC Nic Naitanui (WCE) - 569k (+12k) - AVG=118 (due to a poor game Goldy has dropped off the list, but NicNat is going from strength to strength at the moment)
    RUC Max GAWN (MEL) - 620k (+1k) - AVG=119 (still a good buy if you need a ruck)

    Forwards
    Rookies:

    FWD Dougal Howard (PTA) - 124k (+29k) - AVG=54
    FWD Tim O’Brien (HAW) - 170k (+20k) - AVG=59 (No longer on the bubble and playing in a losing Hawthorn team, rookies like O’Brien may find themselves the first to be dropped)
    FWD Peter Wright (GCS) - 187k (+51k) - AVG=88 (A bit more expensive, and only got 24 last week - I missed this game, did he get injured, or was he a one game wonder?)
    FWD Daniel MENZEL (GEE) - 347k (+33k) - AVG=93 (That dreaded mid-range option – will Menzel become a keeper, or will he disappoint)

    Keepers:
    M/F Dayne Zorko (BRL) - 565k (-3k) - AVG=118 (Amazing a Brisbane forward can be going so well…)
    FWD Jarrad Waite (NTH) - 575k (-4k) - AVG=126 (This man just keeps going – only in 6% of teams though)

    Still a week away:
    DEF Jason Castagna (RIC) - 117k - AVG=37
    DEF Aliir Aliir (SYD) - 124k - AVG=36
    MID Ben Keays (BRL) - 117k - AVG=59
    MID James Polkinghorne (ESS) - 124k - AVG=52
    MID Kieran Lovell (HAW) - 126k - AVG=44
    MID Connor Blakely (FRE) - 160k - AVG=44
    MID David Zaharakis (ESS) - 508k (-12k) - AVG=109
    M/F McKenzie Willis (GCS) - 117k - AVG=32
    M/F Christian Petracca (MEL) - 124k - AVG=63
    FWD Allan CHRISTENSEN (BRL) - 372k (-12k) - AVG=69
    M/F Zac Merrett (ESS) - 499k (-18k) - AVG=102
    FWD Eddie Betts (ADE) - 505k (-18k) - AVG=100

    So that’s Best Buys for this week.
    Good luck to all with your trades and hopefully some wins on the weekend. For all your trade discussion feel free to join us in the comments section below.

    Cheers
    http://www.tipbetpro.com/ - your statistically tested guide to tipping and betting on AFL and NRL
     
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Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tipbetpro, May 4, 2016.

    1. GaryReal
      GaryReal
      Have changed my mind on DTucker - he seems out of his depth.
      Good tradedown option TUp Bad option TDown?
      • Dislike Dislike x 5
      • Like Like x 4
    2. God Yeah
      God Yeah
      Ben Ken to Simpson via Woody
      Woody to Franklin or Zorko
      I would love to get Smith in as a downgrade though, but how much cash is too much
    3. Muppets
      Muppets
      Personally I think you need to get Smith in. Mature aged rookie who just gets the pill. Only reason you wouldn't is if you're high up the standings and want to keep churning max points to stay there.
      • Like Like x 2
    4. leb3
      leb3
      Going Weitering and AMT to M Boyd and Smith this week.
      Tossed and turned over many other ideas, including getting Howard because of his JS without Lobbe, but happy with these now. Was originally planning to get TMitch but with Laird and Rance out my backline needed reinforcements.

      Think Boyd will shine with all the missing halfbacks from the Bulldogs
      • Like Like x 5
    5. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      I picked Simpson over Moyd last week with the main reason being durability. Scoring wise so far it looks like the Bulldog is better with Bob and JJ out.

      This weeks dilemma is :
      Mason Cox :thumbsu: or Peter Wright :thumbsd:
      • Like Like x 11
    6. RPritch
      RPritch
      Need opinions on Smith from both you and anyone else on here.
      Is Smith likely to keep his spot? Also, is he likely to keep scoring well?
      Hadn't ever heard of him before he debuted and didn't watch his first two games.
      Seems like you have a high opinion of him. I had planned to get Petracca this week and then Keays next week, but I might have to get Smith
      • Like Like x 2
    7. IPOD
      IPOD
      Smith was one of Collingwoods best in pre season down at Geelong before he got injured in second quarter. Seems a likely type will he hold his spot with Varcoe and Williams to come back?
    8. Senator96
      Senator96
      I'm surprised Marc Murphy isn't being considered, down to 430k which is super cheap for a player of his quality only that low due to the 30 odd score when he copped a knock to the head on the back of a down game the week before. Only in 1% of teams at the moment so great POD material and about 100k upgrade from parish and the like.

      At the price I think smith is a must, especially with so many few good rookie options in the mid although finally a couple of good potentials coming through. Anyone keen on Peter wright? That 143 in game one guarantees a big price rise first up but I can't help thinking fools gold after last week. Menadue and BenKen probably the ones to get the chop this week
    9. pollypies
      pollypies
      Think smith will definitely keep his spot. As Ipod said was playing well in NAB until he got injured. Had 30 disposals in his first game back in the VFL before being promoted to the senior list. He was actually promoted ahead of Mason Cox which I think shows how highly the club thinks of him. Started on a wing in on Anzac day so looks like getting plenty of midfield time. He is a good tackler and gets a lot of contested ball. Only knock on him is his disposal. Below is from the Pies website:

      Smith played 18 games for Redland in the NEAFL in 2015. He averaged 28.7 disposals, 5.0 clearances, 4.9 tackles and 5.7 inside 50s per game. He also represented the NEAFL against Tasmania, collecting 23 disposals and six tackles.
    10. Shagga05
      Shagga05
      I was big on Boyd last week but only changed my mind for his lack of durability in recent years, if he stays on the park then get him in. I thought it was risky so I passed.
    11. IPOD
      IPOD
      Looking at a double down for some cash generation this week. Out Dea and Menapoo - Josh Smith and Petracca giving me 300k (currently only have 6) to upgrade next week or 2. Point this week not matter not going for overall just league wins
    12. Shagga05
      Shagga05
      The only option this week is the get Shaw however possible.

      I'm sure most people on this site would have listed their top 6 def to have at the start of the year, I'm even more sure that if you did this Shaw was at number 1. Was that too many sure's/Shaw's?

      So that means if you didn't start him then this week is the time to get him as this looks to be his cheapest price he should be all year.

      I will be getting Smith to raise the cash and punting Tippa the Shaw.

      If Shaw wasn't my target this week then it would be Rocky or D Martin.
      • Like Like x 1
    13. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      Agreed, I think the only reason you wouldn't have had him in your starting squad is if you thought he was too expensive at ~$600k.
      I only made him the "Buy of the Week" when I saw he was in less than 40% of teams (quite low for one of the few consistent gun defenders), and given he is $45k cheaper than he was at the start of the season and on the way up - he is a must have.

      Always hard knowing who has job security these days, but Smith does look like the pick of bunch this week (you wait, like Lee last week he'll probably get dropped!).
      • Like Like x 1
    14. walesy
      walesy
      Glad to see that I'm not alone in my "Get Shaw in now!" thoughts.

      He's low from the start of the season, and has banged out two massive scores.

      It's a now or never situation with him.

      (Also helps to bolster that backline, which is feeling all sorts of pain at the moment!!)
      • Like Like x 2
    15. JC
      JC
      I'd love to get Shaw in this week but the issues I have to fix & rookies that need to go don't give me enough cash to get there. :(

      I could if I trade Laird, but I've already gone sideways for a few injuries and I'm not super keen to keep on doing that.
      • Like Like x 1
    16. Fez
      Fez
      Dea to Dempsey ? Basically a straight swap ? Thoughts ?
      • Dislike Dislike x 5
    17. walesy
      walesy
      Don't see Dempsey as a sustainable option- That said, he's a bargain price if he does keep up that average! (Just don't trust any of the Bombers though!! :D)
    18. GaryReal
      GaryReal
      • Like Like x 1
    19. tipbetpro
      tipbetpro
      I see Dempsey as one of those "Best Buy" options for when you need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to get your season back on track.
      Maybe you've already been burnt by injuries, or you just made some bad choices along the way and find yourself asking "how did I get here, and how do I get myself out of this dark place?"
      Maybe Dempsey won't be your saviour, but at this point in your SC life, playing it safe won't get you anywhere. You need to try something slightly desperate, something that you might not be proud of, something that you swore you'd never do (again).
      Good luck.
      • Like Like x 1

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