2015 Brownlow Medal Preview

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Holey, Sep 28, 2015.

By Holey on Sep 28, 2015 at 10:00 AM
  1. Holey

    Holey Moderator Staff Member

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    Nat Fyfe should have done enough to hold on to this year's Brownlow medal, after bolting out of the gates before -a form slump and some missed games towards the end of the season. Whilst not a foregone conclusion - the $2 most bookies have on him is about where it sits on my review of the numbers. In simple terms, he is a 50/50 proposition, with any of Hannebery, Priddis, Dangerfield, J.P. Kennedy and S. Mitchell all a chance to upset on the night.

    [​IMG]

    The ‘Total' is the results of my 3-2-1 count throughout the year. The ‘Countback' takes into account a weighting for the strength of the votes given (or ability to pick up votes not given). The Odds are current as per today (Sportsbet).

    When extrapolating the Countback over the year, a range can be applied - it looks like this:

    [​IMG]
     
    Holey, Jan 1, 1970
    #1

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Holey, Sep 28, 2015.

    1. Owen
      Owen
      As always Holey, top work. According to your work the sportsbet's most team bet odds seem to be pretty spot on, annoyingly.
      Owen, Sep 17, 2015
      #2
    2. walesy
      walesy
      Petrie in the North without Goldi market is currently (well, when I put my bets on) running at $7.

      Looks like great value. Haven't seen a count where he wasn't coming second.

      Also, JPK for the overall I reckon is a sneaky chance.
      walesy, Sep 17, 2015
      #3
    3. Owen
      Owen
      Another thing to note that on luxbet Essendon and the doggies don't have a market yet, perhaps they are the ones the bookies are most worried about? They aren't doing multis yet anyway.
      Owen, Sep 17, 2015
      #4
    4. JPK
      JPK
      I like my chances too!

      (Oh, what do you mean you weren't talking about me???)
      JPK, Sep 17, 2015
      #5
    5. Holey
      Holey
      Yep - very good value Petrie. Second in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
      Holey, Sep 17, 2015
      #6
    6. Holey
      Holey
      Doggies hard to pick every year - but this year more than ever. Wallis and Bont good, yes, but very up and down. And neither have polling history. Macrae polled max last year, but was dropped for poor form after rd 6 and returned in rd 9.
      Holey, Sep 17, 2015
      #7
    7. Jason
      Jason
      Wallis is favourite for our B&F this year, from Dahlhaus then Bontempelli.

      But in terms of our best player on the ground in any given game, Bontempelli leads that with 5, from Dahlhaus 3 and a bunch of players with 2. Very even this year at the kennel.
      Jason, Sep 17, 2015
      #8
    8. anthak
      anthak
      Good stuff Holey. Brilliant!
      anthak, Sep 17, 2015
      #9
    9. walesy
      walesy
      Your work on the wing this year was great, but I don't think you get BL votes for cheering. :D
      walesy, Sep 20, 2015
      #10
    10. Jason
      Jason
      Wish me luck fellas. My 10 selection multibet (9 folds) for this evening is:

      N.Jones
      S.Thompson (without Dangerfield)
      D.Mundy (without Fyfe)
      C.Dixon
      D.Beams
      D.Heppell
      J.Selwood
      D.Hannebery
      M.Priddis
      M.Wallis
      Jason, Sep 28, 2015
      #11
    11. walesy
      walesy
      Thompson (Without Danger)
      Petrie (without Goldie)
      Hanners
      Gray
      Vince
      Ward
      Mundy
      Hurley
      Pendles
      M. Murphy

      Make it so!! :D
      walesy, Sep 28, 2015
      #12
    12. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      My Brownlow predictions for tonight.

      Winner - Fyfe, Dangerfield, Priddis, JP.Kennedy, Goldstein

      Top 3 per club
      ADE: Dangerfield,Thompson,Sloane
      BRI: Beams,Zorko,Rockliff
      CAR: Murphy,Cripps,Bell
      COL: Pendlebury,Swan,Adams
      ESS: Heppell,Goddard,Stanton
      FRE: Fyfe,Neale,Mundy
      GEE: Selwood,Caddy,Motlop
      GCS: Bennell,Ablett,Hall
      GWS: Ward,Treloar,Shiel
      HAW: Mitchell,Hodge,Lewis
      MEL: Vince,Jones,Viney
      NTH: Goldstein,Ziebell,Higgins
      PTA: Gray,Boak,Ebert
      RIC: Delidio,Martin,Cotchin
      STK: Armitage,Montagna,Steven
      SYD: Kennedy,Hannebery,Parker
      WBD: Wallis,Bonts,Boyd
      WCE: Priddis,Gaff,Kennedy
      port_leschenault, Sep 28, 2015
      #13
    13. port_leschenault
      port_leschenault
      Got the winner right, failed at top 5.

      14/18 club leader right (Saints split counted)
      port_leschenault, Sep 29, 2015
      #14

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