Best Buys: Going For Gold

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Iain, Apr 29, 2015.

By Iain on Apr 29, 2015 at 10:00 AM
  1. Iain

    Iain Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    925
    Likes Received:
    465
    Welcome once again to the Best Buys, after a horror week where our Best Buy had his worst score since 2011. Fingers crossed our man this week can do a little better.
    And that man, is Todd Goldstein. The Big ruckman has dominated early on this season, scoring over 150 in half of his game to date. Obviously it's still pretty early on in the year, but that's still pretty impressive nonetheless. Averaging a massive 29 points-per-game more than his closest ruck rival Goldy looks set for a huge year, but is still only in around 30% of the teams in the competition. As reliable as a ruckman can be, I'm just hoping the Best Buy isn't turning into a curse.


    DEFENSE
    ROOKIES

    Jake Kelly (ADE) DEF 123.9k 56 +41k

    Kelly has started his AFL career in decent form, going onto the bubble this week with an average of 56. With a price rise of around 40 grand on the cards after his next game he looks a decent pick down back, and may well get a call-up for a few of the teams still holding Goodes this week.



    Harris Andrews (BRI) DEF 117.3k 47 +31k

    Andrews is not far behind Kelly, averaging 47 and looking at a price rise of around 30 grand when he breaks his bubble. With the Lions yet to win a game in 2015 their best 22 will likely still be unsettled, but Andrews looks well placed to keep getting game time.



    Brendon Whitecross (HAW) DEF 198.7k 51 +15k
    Whitecrossisn'ta rookie, as most reading this will be well aware, but he is currently under 200 grand and should be a strong chance to keep getting games. As long as he stays uninjured anyway. Averaging 51 and looking at a small price rise of around 15 grand this week he'll probably only be considered by those looking for bench cover without worrying too much about cash generation.
    MID-PRICERS

    Tom McDonald (MEL) DEF 457.3k 109 6.8%

    McDonald is still in great form, and while he scored under his average in the last game it was in a win so the ball probably wasn't near him as much as it has been. With his form so far and the Demons likely to lose a fair few more games this season, McDonald is shaping up as a good pick in SC this year and still has good POD value.



    Bachar Houli (RIC) DEF 496.5k 106 2.3%

    Bachar also scored a bit below his average last round, knocking up 83 points, but even after that his average is still sitting at a solid 106. A big POD and likely to remain so he offers decent value for those inclined, however personally I just can't see him maintaining an average over 100 by seasons end.



    Jeremy McGovern (WCE) D/F 465.1k 103 4.8%
    The Gov is facing some injury concerns at the moment, but even so still managed to score a decent 93 on the weekend. Still listed as test” by the AFL he obviously hasn't returned to full fitness just yet, but if he is cleared to play then you can expect his ownership rate of 4.8% to increase. A gun player and still sporting an average of 103 for the season so far McGovern looks to be in for a big year.
    PREMIUMS

    Cale Hooker (ESS) DEF 502.9k 115 3.9%

    Hooker is currently the highest averaging defender in SC, and a massive POD. Averaging 115 and costing just over 500 grand he offers good value, and looks a great contender for top-6 defenders this year. With a minimal price rise this week he can probably be left a little longer without too much pain, but for those with the cash to grab him now it could well be worthwhile.



    Alex Rance (RIC) DEF 524.4k 112 9%

    Rance scored 96 points on the weekend, bringing his average to date down to 112. Even so he looks like good value, and is now being talked about as potentially the best defender in the AFL. While he is facing a price drop of around 9 grand after his next game the Tigers will be looking to bounce back this week, and playing against the Cats should provide him plenty of opportunities to find the footy.



    Luke Hodge (HAW) D/M 533.7k 109 26.5%

    Hodge has gone back to his usual scoring after the monster score a couple of weeks ago, picking up 81 points against the Power and dropping his average to 109. That's still a pretty good average, but he has only topped the 100 mark once this year with scores of 97 and 82 the others. A risky pick, given his age and history, but he should still be capable of another few big scores yet.



    Josh Gibson (HAW) DEF 504.7k 103 13.5%
    Gibson bounced back to form with a very handy 133 on the weekend, pleasing his 13.5% of coaches and making more than a few others put him back on the watch list. Averaging 103 and costing just over 500 grand he is around where he should be price-wise, but if he can keep playing the role he's been enjoying this season so far he should be good value.
    MIDFIELD
    ROOKIES

    Billy Hartung (HAW) MID 195.8k 75 +47k
    Another not-quite-rookie Hartung has performed well in his first two games for the year, coming onto the bubble with an average of 75. A likely price rise of just under 50 grand after his next game will tempt a few, but the majority of coaches will probably pick Krakouer in the midfield before him.
    MID-PRICERS

    Scott Thompson (ADE) MID 509.5k 135 0.5%

    Scotty T Sr has been on fire in his two matches this season, averaging 135 between them and will likely face a price rise of over 40 grand this week if he can keep it going. Priced at around 510 grand he is excellent value, and is sitting in only half a percent of teams due to the late start. With his age a definite issue the vast majority won't be expecting him to maintain his current from, but Adelaide certainly look a much improved unit this year and he shouldn't get as much attention with Sloane and Danger likely to be targeted first.



    Dylan Shiel (GWS) MID 540.1k 120 7.4%

    Shiel has stepped it up in the early going this year, averaging 120 after a big 146 in his last game. Currently sitting equal first in the Coaches Award voting he looks to be making the jump to elite, and the 7.4% of coaches who have him are hoping that carries over to SC too. A (very) slight price drop this week shouldn't deter those that are looking at him, and with a price of 540 grand he already offers good value.



    Dyson Heppell (ESS) MID 578.1k 119 6.2%

    Hep D had a big game on Anzac day, pumping out 150 to bring his average for the year to 119. Yet to post a sub-100 score he has been going well this season for his coaches, all 6.2% of them, and with a price of around 580 grand he offers good value. Pencil him in now for a starting spot next season.



    Daniel Hannebery (SYD) MID 564.9k 119 3.3%
    Hanners has continued on with his good form, also averaging 119 so far but with nearly half the selection numbers of Heppell. Costing 565 grand he is under-priced on current form, and looks set to maintain this for a while to come. With Sydney struggling last week the match against a hot Doggies outfit should be a great test for them on the weekend.
    PREMIUMS

    Nathan Fyfe (FRE) MID 665.7k 132 56.5%

    Fyfe is starting to approach regular status, knocking out 145 points on the weekend against the Swans and making those that had him as captain very happy indeed. Priced at 665 grand he is on the expensive side, but with an average of 132 he's actually around the mark he should be. Sitting in over half the competition he is a popular pick, but after the Sloane disaster last week he is also now the highest scoring player for the season to date. Facing a small drop in value this week,don't let that stop you from bringing him in as the loss will be negligible.



    David Mundy (FRE) MID 587.8k 125 2.9%
    Mundy has also kept his form going, racking up 129 points to bring his average to 125 for the season. Costing under 590 grand he offers good value, and currently being in under 3% of sides is a great POD. The Dockers look a stronger side so far this season, and a lot of that has to do with players like Mundy taking the next step.
    RUCK
    MID-PRICERS

    Mark Blicavs (GEE) M/R 428.5k 98 9%

    Blicavs maintained his form in the last game, managing an impressive 97 against the form ruckman in the comp, Todd Goldstein. With his excellent fitness levels it appears he scores a fair few points around the ground, and as such doesn't just rely on hit-outs. Costing just under 430 grand with an average of 98 he offers good value, and is currently sitting in 9% of sides. Still a risky pick, by going well so far by all accounts.



    Brodie Grundy (COL) RUC 410.4k 94 12.6%
    Grundy also backed up on the weekend with a score of 91, bringing his average to 94 for the season to date. In a big game this Friday against the Blues and Cam Wood Grundy should have every chance to go large, and it will be interesting to see how he performs. Costing 410 grand and now sitting in over 12% of sides it appears a few SCers are backing him in.
    PREMIUMS

    Todd Goldstein (NM) RUC 615.5k 129 28.9%
    Goldy has been a beast so far this year, now averaging 129 without a single score under 100. Clearly the pre-eminent ruckman in the comp so far he is now sitting in just under 30% of teams, and should be a trade target for the other 70%. He is on the pricey side at 615 grand, but his average is more than worth it at this stage, we just have to hope that he doesn't pull a Sloaney” and suck after being named the Best Buy.
    FORWARD
    ROOKIES

    Robbie Tarrant (NM) FWD 144.7k 114 +112k

    The forward line looks to be where the most trades will take place this round, with Tarrant and Krakouer both lighting it up in their returns to AFL level footy. Tarrant is sporting a huge average of 114 for his price tag of 144 grand and if he can maintain this kind of scoring he's facing a price rise of 112 grand this week alone. Obviously he may struggle to keep his scores to this level, but the new role seems to suit him well and even if he only averages 60 from here on he should make some good, quick cash for those that bring him in.



    Nathan Krakouer (PTA) M/F 106.9k 82 +80k

    Krakouer has performed well since his return to Port, averaging 82 to bring himself onto the bubble with a potential price rise of around 80 grand. As a M/F he offers some flexibility, is almost 40 grand cheaper than Tarrant, and is most likely the more reliable of the two. Having said that however his scores so far have been around 30ppg less than Tarrants, so cue the typical risk vs reward” arguments here. Will likely be the most traded-in player this week.



    Aaron Young (PTA) M/F 244.6k 89 +53k

    Another Port M/F is Aaron Young. Not a rookie, but priced at under 250 grand and now on the bubble with an average of 89. If he can stay in the side and keep scoring well Young should see a price rise of around 50 grand this week, but will likely be overlooked by the vast majority of SC coaches.



    Lukas Webb (WBD) FWD 117.3k 57 +44k
    Webb has flown under the radar so far, thanks primarily to the efforts of Krak and Taz. On the bubble with an average of 57 he should increase his value by 44 grand after his next game if he maintains his average, and looks a decent chance of doing so. I'm really not too sure on his job security at the moment so a Doggies supporter may be able to shed some light there in the comments, but on the surface he seems like a solid pick.
    MID-PRICERS

    Marcus Bontempelli (WBD) M/F 465.7k 116 51.1%

    The Bont had a somewhat quiet game on his return at the weekend, scoring 82 points and breaking his bubble. While injury concerns are probably still there he did seem to move fairly well and can hopefully return to his earlier form this week. Averaging 116 and costing 465 grand he offers great value, and with a selection rate of over 50% he seems a relatively safe pick now.



    Shane Edwards (RIC) M/F 479.4k 108 0.7%
    Edwards is a bit of a surprise here, but has certainly shown the form to justify it. Averaging 108 after a 122 in the loss to Melbourne he looks to be good value, costing just under 480 grand. A massive POD in under 1% of teams he is certainly a risky pick, and for those a bit concerned he will likely only increase his price by around 18 grand this week so it should be fairly safe to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
    PREMIUMS

    Dane Swan (COL) M/F 519.9k 112 56.5%

    Swanny is under a bit of an injury cloud this week, and had a somewhat quiet game on the weekend. However his moonboot has been taken off and he was seen running laps at training, so those that are keen on bringing him in will just need to keep an eye on late outs (and even subs) for Friday's game. Averaging 112 and costing 520 grand he seems good value, and currently sits in over half the teams in the comp.



    Luke Dahlhaus (WBD) FWD 515.5k 110 2.8%

    Dahl lit it up again on the weekend, racking up a score of 132 to bring his average to 110 for the year so far. Spending a bit of time through the midfield and always a risk to kick goals he is the ideal type for a M/F in SC, we just need to hope he can keep improving at the same rate. In under 3% of sides he is a big POD, but could easily contend for top 6 forwards this year.



    Devon Smith (GWS) FWD 520.8k 107 1.2%
    Smith has stepped his game up this season so far, averaging 107 for the 1.2% of teams that picked him. A big 128 against the Suns on the weekend certainly didn't do his average any harm, and the game against West Coast this week should be a ripper. Costing 520 grand and in good form, the big question as usual is can he maintain.
    WAITING LIST

    Tom Rockliff (BRI) MID 709.5k 64 -102k

    Michael Barlow (FRE) MID 530.1k 82 -51k

    Jack Ziebell (NM) M/F 424.8k 79 -40k

    Kieren Jack (SYD) MID 511.1k 92 -40k

    Steve Johnson (GEE) MID 474.8k 77 -40k

    Shane Mumford (GWS) RUC 538.5k 91 -32k

    Sam Jacobs (ADE) RUC 569.4k 97 -30k

    Andrew Walker (CAR) DEF 472.6k 74 -27k

    Taylor Walker (ADE) FWD 416.9k 87 -27k

    Luke Parker (SYD) MID 505.3k 84 -25k

    Robbie Gray (PTA) M/F 577.2k 103 -25k

    Josh P Kennedy (SYD) MID 573.1k 109 -24k

    Rory Sloane (ADE) MID 619.7k 119 -23k

    Brodie Smith (ADE) DEF 503.5k 102 -23k

    So that's it for another week of Best Buys, feel free to follow me on twitter @BlueBelieverTS and as always join in on the comments, discussions and polls below.
     

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Iain, Apr 29, 2015.

    1. DC
      DC
      Great write up.

      If we haven't got Cripps should we get him this week? Should average 90+ at under 300k

      Thinking NVB -> Cripps
    2. Steve
      Steve
      Great work BB

      No love for Hibberd?

      He is almost at his rock bottom price and is coming off an interrupted preseason and Essendon's draw has been tough to begin with (playing Hawks and Swans in their first 4 games)

      He will go close to being in the top 6 scoring defenders at years end.
    3. jp
      jp
      Regarding hooker, last year he averaged 106 over the first 5 rounds. By season end his average was 79.

      Just sayin'
    4. jp
      jp
      Depends. Do you want him in your team at the end of the year? If so then go for it.

      Otherwise maybe just accept that you missed that boat and go Krak. NVB -> Cripps looks very sideways.
    5. Iain
      Iain
      Cripps could well average 90, going by his last game anyway, but if he scores 80 in every game from here on he'll peak in price at about 415 grand. While that's pretty good for a rookie, for me personally it isn't enough cash generation to warrant grabbing him now
    6. Iain
      Iain
      Good call Steve, I think he needs to show a little more for a pick just now with Hooker taking a fair few points but will definitely be one to watch
    7. TerryinBangkok
      TerryinBangkok
      Great work BB. Looks like a shopping spree this week.

      Not that I would ever consider him, but Dennis Armfield (F/M) is sitting at $181,400 and on the bubble with a BE of -29.
    8. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      Hypothetical - If you had neither in your team and weak rookies at M10, M11 and F8 which of the following 2 players would you pick assuming you can only pick one

      TU - Krak F/M (PA)
      TD - Tarrant F (NM)

    9. Nick
      Nick
      This quite funny - 2 weeks ago all the talk was Cripps to NVB!

      Glad I held Cripps in the end

    10. Nick
      Nick
      Yep, burnt me badly after I got him in at top price, only for his role to change (of course) and scoring plummet.

      Can't risk that again


    11. ARC
      ARC
      Who to trade out for Krak?

      TU - Anderson (sub risk)
      TD - Heeney (that low score will mean no cash rise for a few weeks)
    12. ARC
      ARC
      Is it worth trading Salem to Tarrant?

      Salem is my only fwd rookie option for Tarrant, the others are Hogan, Clark and Lonie, who all have -ve BEs, all my mid rookies are mid only

      TU - Tarrant has a BE of -144, Salem's is 14. TRADE
      TD - Waste of a trade (still got 30 trades)
    13. JPK
      JPK
      Hypothetically, if you've got three weak rookies, then you'd have to go with Krak, simply for the DPP and ability to cover both lines, that Tarrant simply can't offer.
    14. churchboy
      churchboy
      That's a really hard one TTH, but I think I'd be going Krakouer in hope that he'd be able to be a better long term option. Tarrant will be great in the short term for the $$$, but just can't see him maintaining his scores, so Krak a better bench option for me...
    15. Nick
      Nick
      J McGrath has an LTI so makes sense to go him to Tarrant.

      Still have Lambert on my midfield bench. Could also go Lambert > Krak, to set the team up with two good looking cows.

      TU: Pull the trigger on the second trade, get both cows in now

      TD: Don't do it, too sideways

    16. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      just to be clear you CAN trade Tarrant in for one of your midfield rookies

      you would have to swing a premium F/M into the mids (at least temporarily)

      For example I can trade Anderson to Tarrant by swinging Dusty, Swanny or Robbie Gray into the M5 position and my M8 moves to the bench.

      Be aware that depending on the strength of your midfield rookies this might mean you end up playing a Clark/Tarrant ahead of a VDB/Miller so you will want to swing the Premo F/M back to the Fwds when Clark/Lonie/Salem/Hogan look like peaking in 2 rounds or so
    17. TheTassieHawk
      TheTassieHawk
      can anyone remember how long Lambert is out for??
    18. Crafty Yarni
    19. ARC
      ARC
      Thanks TassieHawk hadn't thought of that!!!!!

      Salem stays, goodbye Heeney, hello Tarrant. Just means Newton goes to the bench

Share This Page