Some of the popular and not so popular SC picks are stinking it up losing $30k or more after Round 3 and looking at huge price drops if they don't find form in the next few weeks. When we don't have these players we can happily grab the popcorn and watch as their price plummets and look for value as a fallen premium in BB's Best Buys later on in the season when their form takes a turn for the good.

But when we do have them it becomes a worry. 3 quiet games at any time during the season is frustrating but at the start of the season super coaches start to panic.

Obviously one of the golden rules of Supercoach is not to sideways trade your premiums, as most times they will come good, but there are exceptions for every rule, and if injuries have been kind (No GAJ, Rockliff, Sidebottom, Bartel, Wines) or you have been succesful in the past using an aggressive trade strategy you should defintely consider using an earlytrade to correct a mistake in your team.

The following are some of the most SC relevant underperforming” playersand the object of this blog is to discuss whether to hold and hope or to pull the lever and trade them out before your SC season follows them down the gurgler. Have your say either way. If someone is missing let us know and we can add them to the list (time permitting).

And if you do lean towards the TRADE out option then be sure to give BB's weekly Best Buys a solid review http://tooserious.net/Blog/tabid/90/Post/7547/Best-Buys-Carnage-Comes-Early



Defenders

Malceski - $499.2k - 79, 52, 52 (avg 61) - $67k price drop in Round 3, facing $57k, $38k, $24k if he hits his average

Optimistic View - smashes out 100's in Rounds 4 & 5 and bottoms out at $450k

Pessimistic View - smashes out” 65, 65, 65 and is sub $400k after Round 6

TTH Says - It has been observed that he is anchored in defence for the Suns rather than his rebound and roam everywhere role for the Swannies. TRADE OUT unless you are convinced the Suns are going to throw him in the middle or use him each and every time they rebound from their Defense.
[span style='color: #00b050;]Hibberd (by popular request)- $463.1k - 59, 84,84 (avg76) - $28k price drop after Round 3, facing $16k, $15k and $15k price drops if he hits his average


Optimistic View - smashes out90 plus scoresin Rounds 4 (Pies) and Round 5 (Saints)to show the slow round 1 start is only a minor hurdle in another top 6 defender calibre season.

Pessimistic View - could possibly flag in the weeks before the bye due to the less than ideal preseason the Bombers had, meaning he is cheaper later on as your 2nd last or last defensive upgrade.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP as Hibberd and Watson are to me the 2 SC relevant premiums in the Essendon lineup who will be soldiering on when the 'false breakouts' and KPP early season blazes of glory are long since forgotten.



Hurn ​- $434.7k - 86, 53, 64 (avg67) - $32k price drop after Round 3, facing $32k, $17k and $11k price drops if he hits his average

Optimistic View - smashes out 100 in Rounds 4 & 90 in Round 5 and bottoms out at $415k

Pessimistic View - smashes out” 65, 65, 65 and is sub $365k after Round 6

TTH Says - He is playing more of a medium-tall lockdown role through necessity. POSSIBLY TRADE OUT unless you are convinced that Hurn is going to be thrown into a free role through the HBF or midfield, surely that's unlikely given the WCE long term injuries.



Forwards

Boomer Harvey - $531.2k - 54, 91, 90 (avg 78) - $47k price drop after Round 3, facing price drops of $24k, $24k and $23k if he hits his average

Optimistic View - Round 1 was a blip, he might leak another $60k while averaging mid 80s early in the season, which might be less than what you expect but unlikely to be your teams biggest disaster.

Pessimistic View - smashes out” mid 70s most weeks with the occasional monster or stinker thrown in as father time finally takes its toll.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP.



Goddard - $512.1k - 66, 94, 82 (avg 80) - $36k price drop after Round 3, facing price drops of $21k, $21k and $16k if he hits his average

Optimistic View - plays more in the guts and smashes out big scores on Anzac Day and against the Saints in Round 5, bottoms out at around $500K and ends as a Top 10 Forward

Pessimistic View - smashes out” 75, 75, 75 and is sub $450k after Round 6 before picking things up later in the year

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP.



Westhoff - $459.5k - 79, 78, 65 (avg 74) - $24k, $19k, $10k price drops in future weeks

Optimistic View - plays in the guts as was being mooted preseason or has one or two of those monster last quarters and hits 130 plus through scaling as is his specialty.

Pessimistic View - smashes out” 75, 75, 75 and is sub $410k after Round 6 and headed towards a high 70's average as was the case up until 20013 & 2014 (aged 27 and 28 years).

TTH Says - You picked him as a POD and nine times out of 10 you back your gut and park him at F5 or F6 until later in the season, other times you are bold and trade him out for someone better who you shouldn't have left out (such as Bont or Swan). MAKE YOUR OWN CALL DEPENDING ON YOUR TEAMS PRIORITIES.



Midfielders

Priddis - $567.7k - 78, 106, 88 (avg 90) - $38k cheaper than pre-season, $24k, $25k, $18k price drops in future weeks

Optimistic View - Last Year's Brownlow Medallist has been thereabouts as a top 20 mid most seasons and apart from the occasional head knock or concussion is durable, will no doubt push 105 plus as a season average

Pessimistic View - unlikely to really stink it up over a season but at $567k may be overpriced relative to some of the breakouts and might have another $70k to lose before he bottoms out.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP. You picked him as a proven POD and even though I personally think there were much better buys around he at worst should be a solid M7 or M8 until later in the year.



Barlow - $565.6k - 75, 136, 66 (avg 92) - a price drop of $35k so far, with $40k, 34k and $13k predicted to follow if he hits his average

Optimistic View - His 136 vs Geelong and a 110 average in each of the last 2 seasons should give you confidence his 2 quiet games is not part of a larger trend, like most premiums his points scored are more important than a few $$$ being lost.

Pessimistic View - similar to Priddis in that unlikely to really stink it up but may be overpriced a little relative to some of the breakouts.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP. You picked him over one or more of Rocky, Wines, Sidebottom and others in the $580k plus bracket, while they are forced to trade out their player there is time to let Barlow turn things around and tinker elsewhere knowing if trades run low he should still be a solid M5 or M6 or M7.



Parker - $542.2k - 98, 78 and 77 (avg 84) - a price drop of $40k in Round 3, and facing price drops of $38k, $25k and $16k in the next few weeks

Optimistic View - His 98 vs the Bombers was likely to have been a monster score if he hadn't been concussed when clearly BOG for the Swans. Two sub 80s can be considered to be down to the after effects and is likely to bring down his season output by a few points but shouldn't impact on Rds4-23 overly much.

Pessimistic View - players who up their average by 20 points as Parker did in 2014 (108 vs 87 in 2013) often find it difficult to raise their game again and his early season troubles might be enough to put the jitters in coaches who have gone light in the middle and could lose points against midfields stacked with the proven elite premiums in the game if Parker struggles to average 105 plus from here.

TTH Says - Someone in the Round Review Blog asked about Parker and I suggested if it were me I would hold, which is most certainly the case still. POSSIBLY TRADE OUT if you are risk averse and have an otherwise fit and firing team and can upgrade to a mega premium type.



Gibbs - $539.4k - 82, 110 and 75 (avg 89) - a price drop of $32k in Round 3, and facing price drops of $22k, $25k and $12k in the next few weeks

Optimistic View - The #1 draft pick from many seasons ago whose 106 average last year was a career high has talent and a previous scoring history to suggest it is not too far from his grasp again after a few down years prior to 2014. Has the Saints this week and the Pies the week after so some decent points could be on offer.

Pessimistic View - has been prone to be thrown into the run with role in seasons past. Always a danger sign and enough of a reason to dump him at the first sign of trouble. At best a marginal M7/M8 provided he can play the 22 games.

TTH Says - POSSIBLY TRADE OUT, but those of you who picked him must love him so you will kick yourself if he turns it on from here.



Murphy - $538.3k - 64, 93 and 109 (avg 88) - a price drop of $32k in Round 3, and facing price drops of $15k, $12k and $19k in the next few weeks

Optimistic View - The other #1 draft pick from many seasons ago was SC royalty in the making 5 seasons ago and could well be a 110 average point scorer this season despite the slow start.

Pessimistic View - upon taking on the Captaincy Murphy had a 92 average season in 2013 although from memory his output was down to some lingering injury issues. Is permanently on my S**list after being stretchered off after trading him in as replacement for an injured premium in Round 22 last year costing me the 200 points I had expected in the last 2 rounds and proving to be the worst trade I have made since I brought Zaharakis into my team in 2012 the week he was a late withdrawal for the Bombers and ended up missing over 6 weeks.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP, but be prepared for ether his best or worst from here forward.



Stevie J - $536.7k - 131, 62 and 64, (avg 85) - a price drop of $37k in Round 3, but a massive $48k followed by $26k and $10k in further weeks if he hits his average.

Optimistic View - I honestly don't have one.

Pessimistic View - 32, prone to whacking blokes, in a declining team which should reduce easy possessions and score involvements, still a better burst midfielder than full timer in my view.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY TRADE OUT, but as with Gibbs those of you who picked him must love him so you will kick yourself if he turns it on from here.



N Jones - $535.6k - 99, 41 and 101 (avg 80) - a huge price drop of $46k in Round 3, and facing price drops of $43k, $15k and $19k in the next few weeks

Optimistic View - He won't scores less than 50 again and 2 near 100 scores are no cause for alarm. Seems to play his best when Melbourne struggle and they are likely to drop off as the season progresses.

Pessimistic View - 2014 was a massive spike and is likely to show Jones as a one season SC wonder, he is a grunt player rather than elite talent even if footy fans of all clubs should admire the way he goes about it for the Dees.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY TRADE OUT unless you have bigger concerns elsewhere as to me he seems on track for a 95-100 point season.



Boak - $532.5k - 82, 68 and 106 (avg 85) - a price drop of $36k in Round 3, and facing price drops of $26k, $13k and $18k in the next few weeks

Optimistic View - He has been 105 plus the last 2 seasons and at 27 is in his prime years. Has played 3 of the top 5 or 6 sides from 2014.

Pessimistic View - I'm personally a firm believer in Port Adelaide as a young team on the rise but even the Geelong team of 2006 and Hawthorn team of 2009 and 2010 had down years despite huge expectations, if they follow this trend the prime movers of the team are potentially impacted. Added to that is the advice from TIB of a likelihood of hard tags throughout 2015, particularly with Wines out injured.

TTH Says - DEFINITELY KEEP as he is another who would slot into a M7 or M8 at worst if he picks up his form.



J Redden - $524.2k - 95, 101 and 64 (avg 86) - a price drop of $30k in Round 3, and facing price drops of $28k, $27k and $10k in the next few weeks

Optimistic View - The first mentioned of the Lions RedRock duo, he is durable, has been 100 plus in the past few seasons and could benefit as the Lions midfielders should score well against a reasonably soft early season draw.

Pessimistic View - the Lions are a changing team with recruits being brought in and younger players stepping up and the chance for early season points may not be taken.

TTH Says - MAKE YOUR OWN CALL as he is yet another solid M8 at worst if he picks up his form.




D Swallow - $517.2k - 79, 96 and 69 (avg 81) - a price drop of $37k so far, and possible drops of $28k, $28k and $15k if he hits his average in coming weeks.

Optimistic View - He is a young and up and coming player and the Gold Coast should improve under their new coach as the season gets on, despite losing 3 in a row to start.

Pessimistic View - Like Parker his 2014 100+ season average was a massive step up from 80 point averages in his first 3 seasons, and if the Suns spiral downwards Swallow could be a 90s average for the year player this season

TTH Says - POSSIBLY TRADE OUT if your team hasn't got other priorities this week.


[span style='color: #00b050;]R (J) Griffen (by popular request) -$508.8k - 70,118 and77 (avg 88) - a price drop of $22k so far, and possible drops of $9k, $21k and $10k if he hits his average in coming weeks.

Optimistic View - His 2011 through 2013 seasons were all 105 plus averages, and 99 with a stuffed back and the added burden of the captaincy last year was a reasonable return under duress. His value will be proven by whetehr he can end up around the 105-110 mark by seasons end and a 3 game sample is not enough to write him off when the SUns and Eagles the enxt 2 weeks will tell most likely see 1 or 2 tons from the veteran.

Pessimistic View - People picking him were ingoring his age and were willign to take the risk of his back flareing up and him copping the tag a reasonabel proportion of the time. I am not sure whether they put much weight on Griffen saying he was seriously thinking of retiringfrom footy in 2014, and I am not sure whether to a team such as GWS is a great move for someone in that headspace. When SC nuts are saying Griffen looks 'disinterested', that starts alarm bells for me so those holding the man not so affectioonately nicknamed Judas by the less forgiving Western Bulldogs supportes amongst the TS Community. A 100 average might end up as a result.

TTH Says - POSSIBLY TRADE OUT if your team hasn't got other priorities this week, but be realistic about who you are trading in needing to average 10 or 15 higher or play 1 or 2 more games to make the trade worth it.


T Greene - $500.3k - 54, 90 and 70 (avg 71) - a massive price drop of $50k so far, and possible drops of $31k, $32k and $22k if he hits his average in coming weeks.

Optimistic View - Undeniably a massive talent with the ability to snag monster scores on his day, his 96 average in 2012 (on debut) and 106 despite club suspension in 2014 showing an ability to turn things around. Averaging 25 disposals after 3 games so all things being equal he should be closer to a 95 average sooner rather than later.

Pessimistic View - Surely the second biggest disappointment to date than Malceski and may well be in less teams than the ex-Swan so it is harder to write off the failure so far as one shared by many others. Averaged 73 in 2013, which is very scary.

TTH Says - POSSIBLY TRADE OUT if you prefer a safer more reliable option.







Rucks
Jacobs - $581.9k - 73, 141, 67 (avg 93) - a $38k drop in round 3, with drops of 421k, $36k and $16k if he hits his average in rounds 4 to 6.
Optimistic View - extremly durable, appears to be over his preseason injury concerns and his 141 shows he can match it with the best such as Goldy and should be within 5ppg of the best ruckment going around this year with 100 plus a definite possibility.

Pessimistic View - 2 shockers out of 3 where he got beaten by Goldy and against the dees who are not known for their ruck strengths. Since the days of a young uninjured Cox and Sandilands combo ruckmen have usually struggled to back up top3 averages in the following year and when you are priced as high as Sauce is (still) thats going to mean he is a chance of proving to be a dud buy.

TTH says - DEFINITELY KEEP - unless you take the view that Blicavs and Grundy are the real deal and can play all 22 games the $$$ earned through a downgrade will have to be well spent to be worth the 1 or 2 trades that end up being made to generate the cash.


Mumford - $571.1k - 98, 108 and 61 (avg 89) - a $42k drop so far, with forecasts of $35k, $34k and $13k in the next 3 weeks if he scores his average each week

Optimistic view - he somehow stays fit, plays to his potential with an improving GWS midfield helping boost his Hitouts to Advantage Stats making him a top 2 or 3 ruck.

Pessimistic view - always a likely chance to miss games and have quiet spells at times, as above with Jacobs he may struggle to finish with a high enough average to justify his pricetag.

TTH says - DEFINITELY KEEP - from personal experience you will need to watch the GWS late withdrawals week in week out with a round by round exit strategy for when the near inevitable happens at some stage but his potential to go large makes holding him a decent bet


Stef Martin - $571.1k - 67, 98 and 95 (avg 87) - another with a $42k decrease, fortunate that his shocker was in week 1 so his price drop predictions are 'only' $22k, $22k and $20k in the next few weeks.

Optimistic view - his good form and Leuys putrid form has him as the current #1 man at the Lions, his 2 most recent scores and last years figures suggest a 100 average is in the realms of possibility.

Pessimistic view - last year is a massive spike form his career numbers, he has only managed 27 games since the start of 2012 and last years figures are from only 12 games so he may struggle to either stay on the park or perform over a full year, in addition one suspects a 2 ruck lineup could return at least in part later in the year if Leuy gets fit and firing.

TTH says - POSSIBLY TRADE OUT - but again only if you have a ruckman to bring in that inspires greater confidence and you are sure of your ability to turn $$ earned into points on the board elsewhere on the field.


Sandy - $545k - 69, 102 and 92 (avg 88) - a $35k price drop to date, he faces $18k, $20k and $17k decreases if he scores his average in the next few rounds.

Optimistic view - he has averaged 100 in 5 of the past 6 years, with 2013 the only exception, despite injuries impacting several games during that time. Is almost certain to be a top 4 ruck once he gets into the swing of the season after a very limited pre-season.

Pessimistic view - aged 33 time will take its toll shortly as it did to Dean Cox at a similar age in the latter part of his career, that said Zac Clarke is no Nic Nat. He is sure to be rested for a game even if Freo paid big time for their loss to the Dees when he missed last year by missing the top 2 and a first up home final.

TTH says - DEFINITELY KEEP - he is thethird player on this list in my team along with Malceski and Hibberd, but unless he gets injured, scores more sub 80 scores or is a late withdrawal he is safe for now while I focus on setting up my team for the upgrade/downgrade season from round 6 or 7 through to round 14 or 15.


Ryder - $512.5k - 77, 82, 93 (avg 84) - a first up price drop of $31k and poised for further drops of $19k, $13k and $14k

Optimistic view - has improved with each outing after missing the NAB challenge matches and given his cheaper price could go close to matching the lead rucks for averages and total points if he can stay fit.

Pessimistic view - Lobbe to return, surely meaning Ryder plays forward and his scoring drops off accordingly.

TTH says - DEFINITELY KEEP - you may have been forced to pick Ryder at short notice due to Lobbes late withdrawal in round 1 so you may be less atatched than holders of other ruckmen but due to Ryders lowish breakevens compared to other ruckmen unless you have missed Goldy or believe Grundy or Blicavs are the answer there is probably no need to rush out and trade this week.


McEvoy - $440.6k - 76, 54 and 61 (avg 63) - a first up price drop of $42k, and pending drops of $36k, $23k and $16k if he scores 63 each week.

Optimistic view - should improve his scoring, averaged 100 in 2011 and 2012

Pessimistic view - averaged only 90 in 2013 and 2014 and should be penalised more than most rucks by the new ruck scoring

TTH says - DEFINITELY TRADE - you would assume he was also picked by a number of Lobbe holders in round 1 and now your rookies are fixed it is time to punt on a ruck who provides greater value or increased scoring potential




Griffen and Hibberd have been added, if someone has SC gold and wants to mention ownership %s or the number of TRADE OUTS this week for some or all of these players and has tiem to post below then please do as it would be interesting to see