Thankful someone said it out loud: I want to give mills the boot too @walesy

is it short sighted to jettison Callum Mills and Luke Dahlhaus? Also have Rayner that id like to punt but can probably carry him sufficiently.
gut feel is Dahlhaus to Fisher (carl) and Mills to one of Simpson/Hurn/Ryan but that leaves me light in the forward line with Fisher, Fritsch, and one of English/Venables/Giles-Langdon on the field.

Open to all feedback or opinions!

Mills might come good, but last weeks performance, coupled with Bonner being available, and the cash enabling me to replace Crouch with Danger is enough for me to pull the trigger.

For fuck sake. Was going to bring Liam Ryan in anyway but it means holding onto Brayshaw or Naughton.

As the saying goes, if you have to ask the question... (happy to play the opposite role of Walesy's "just do it" devil-on-shoulder )

Some info on Fisher from those in the know Carlton fans (surely they exist) would be good. Outside of Bonner/Christensen he's really the only expensive rookie/cheap midpricer option. Just don't know if he's sustainable at that scoring output (whereas Bundy has scoring history and Bonner role and job security)

Sicily has just been offered one week for kneeing wood.

EDIT: when did the duck change from green to yellow? There you go.

thanks all for the input. by all means keep it coming!
@port_leschenault I think I'm the only bloke that doesn't really rate Christensen as a Supercoach prospect this year. Everyone raves about his form or history, but it was 2-3 years ago under a different coach. Sure, it's better than no history at all, but in my opinion it is far from compelling.
My (limited) whispers from Carlton is theyre pretty high on Fisher and were really happy with his output from last year; hence the bigger role and increased time on ground (from 70.2% to 77.5%).
But anyway, ive started terrible and have lost all faith and conviction in my own opinions; hence asking the TS community for help on this one!
@choppers have $270k-ish in the bank to spend so money not an issue

You're not alone, I don't really rate Christensen for SC this year either. In my opinion, not worth trading into if you didn't already start with him. Do not expect him to be a keeper, you'd still have to upgrade him with another trade eventually.

Think someone like Fritsch or Venables will make you a similar amount coin before that eventual upgrade is needed, with only slightly lower scoring each week. Keep your cash in reserve, another reason to spend it will present soon enough.

He's only in 20% of teams. Pre-season I think I was the main proponent of him on the board. He showed what he can do on the weekend. The merits of trading into a player that costs so much is a big one to consider, I think it comes down to list construction and wanting the safety of more points over price rise, but if you're looking at AC v Bonner v Fisher, well he has the capability we've seen in the past and showed already what he can do this year. That to me would put him above an unknown like Fisher. If you're going to gamble, why increase the odds.

I've taken a deeper dive thanks to @walesy's Stats page.

So last year there were 8 players who increased their price to a peak of more than $150k that were in that $220k-$280k range (two were just over but included here). Let's see if any were SC relevant. They were:

Zaine Cordy
Start Price: $222,300 Peak Price: $381,000 (R17) Diff: $158,700
'16 Ave: 38 (@5g) '17 Ave: 64 (@19g)

Who? #shade. You'd have had to have held on to him until Rd17 for his price to peak and he still didn't do enough to be worth it over other rookies. Nope.

Nathan Vardy
Start Price: $265,500 Peak Price: $430,700 (R15) Diff: $165,200
'16 Ave: 61 (1g) '17 Ave: 68 (@20g)

Whatshisname was slightly better than the other whatshisname due to role as WCE's main ruck but if you were holding him in your ruck to make money you'd be losing points over fist.

Scott Selwood
Start Price: $281,800 Peak Price: $451,200 Diff: $169,400
'16 Ave: 74 (@3g) '17 Ave: 91 (@11g)

Popular pre-season but didn't play til much later so irrelevant as a cash cow to start with. Still managed to get injured and miss three games. #ClassicScott

Ryan Burton
Start Price: $254,600 Peak Price: $427,700 (Rd9) Diff: $173,100
'16 Ave: 52 (@3g) '17 Ave: 84 (@20g games)

Probably as good a comparison for Bonner/Fisher as there is from this group so far since he was cheap and shot up his average by 32 points in his second year (freshman blues so far this year) and a good peak price early. Missed Rd1 so unsure how he went as a correction target, I think there was only minimal talk of him from memory.

David Swallow
Start Price: $280,200 Peak Price: $463,000 (Rd18) Diff: $182,800
'16 Ave: 0 (@0g) '17 Ave: 85 (@18g)

Mr Popular Selection and also Mr Popular to Trade Out himself. Didn't play round 1, spudded up in Rd 4 and was injured in Rd5 and missed 3 of next 4 games. Still jumped up in price so was a good choice because he did what you expected but yeah totally pointless if it's at the end of season.

Charlie Curnow
Start Price: $267,500 Peak Price: $462,100 (Rd 23) Diff: $194,600
'16 Ave: 49 (@6g) '17 Ave: 74 (@21g)

Went bang in a big way but again, it occurred end of season. Useless as a rookie/stepping stone. By the byes he was only ~35k more than starting price. Not a worth while cash cow. As a premium this year though, looking good.

Billy Longer
Start Price: $260,200 Peak Price: $467,800 (Rd 23) Diff: $207,600
'16 Ave: 0 (@0g) '17 Ave: 78 (@17g)

Another ruck! Maybe there is a strategy here (there's not). Didn't play til R5 when he won the ruck spot from Hickey. Didn't play well until after the byes, so peak scoring end of the season is not good for us.

Dom Sheed
Start Price: $267,400 Peak Price: $488,300 Diff: $220,900
'16 Ave: 55 (@5g) '17 Ave: 84 (@19g)

Would've been a great selection (4th year player, expected to break out etc) if he didn't start injured but why would you have brought this guy in when he played 1 game in the first 4 games. Would've been a great gamble but a typical bolt from the blue season imo (can only find footyprophet articles after his Rd6 97).

~

So what did I get from all of this? That it's extremely rare that players in this awkward price range do well at all for SC purposes (basically 1 last season, Burton, and he wasn't even playing Rd1). It shows that their price rises are limited and they're definitely not keepers. But why would you be treating them as so.

Looking back at 2017 Rd 2 scores from players in similar price range there were 4 above 80avg at the time: Sam Reid, Shaun McKernan, Caleb Marchbank, Jack Lonie. Marchbank was popular last year and he did make money (140k by Rd9) so just out of above list and not a failure but again it's proof that more often than not these players are not worth it.

So I'd be worried if I had more than one player in that sort of price range. And it's definitely information that puts me off a bit getting Bonner for Naughton.

Impressive work. So you’re advocating, in my case, to let sleeping dogs lie; retain Dahlhaus and don’t burn a trade. If finger is sufficiently itchy, then move mills for Simpson or hurn or luke Ryan.
That about sum it up?

Well yeah, I guess if you're looking at the risk it's better to just avoid those players. There are usually some (I should probably look at '16 too) that present good value and SCer generally do a good job talking about them (thinking of Marchbank) but worth burning a trade for? Probably not. If you're wanting to downgarde a premium to someone like Bundy or Bonner, definitely don't. In that case you may as well just sideways correct.

I would keep someone like Dahlhaus though. "For better of worse" is my motto with original prems until team is upgraded.

What’s wrong with holding Brayshaw? Looks to be a slow burner but is making cash and should improve and a 100 or two will boost his price a bit quicker.

If he misses enough time, could be a very handy downgrade target.